ECONOMIC INTELLIGENCE WEEKLY

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP85T00875R001500150054-7
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 23
• Document Creation Date: December 22, 2016
• Document Release Date: September 29, 2009
• Sequence Number: 54
• Publication Date: December 18, 1974
• Content Type: REPORT

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25X1
Secret
Economic Intelligence Weekly
Secret
CIA No. 8233/74
18 December 1974
Copy N2 424
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World Grain Outlook Worsens . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3
The Decline of Sterling: Causes and Implications . . . . . . . . . . . 5
US Gold Auction Announcement: Foreign Reactions . . . . . . . . . 7
Textile Industry: Casualty of the Recession . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9
Rhodesian Chrome: Moderate Effects of a Renewed US Embargo . . . . 11
US Coal: Rising EC Demand . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13
Publication of Interest, Statistics
The Reflationary Program Chancellor Schmidt has been heavily promoting at
home and abroad has been sent to the Bundestag. Contrary to government claims,
the program will add little to the stimulants already scheduled. Public spending
will increase by $700 million, and a 7-1/2% subsidy worth about $250 million
will be paid on private investment made in December. A similar subsidy for
investment in the first half of 1975 will not be paid until 1976. Given the poor
sales outlook, the German business community doubts that these measures will
stimulate investment as much as Schmidt anticipates.
World Sugar Prices have tumbled 35% in the last three weeks, as the market
began to correct its overreaction to speculative purchases and adverse crop reports.
Little trading is actually taking place. Buyers await further declines, and producers
are generally reluctant to sell, apparently hoping that prices will rebound. Prices
probably will move erratically over the next few months, with the general trend
downward.
Note: Comments and queries regarding the Economic Intelligence Itleekly are welcom-?d.
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All Caribbean Bauxite Producers have now adopted the Jamaican tax formula.
Haiti on 2 December pressed settlement on Reynolds. The Dominican Republic
has reached a settlement with Alcoa. Meanwhile, Kingston is backing off slightly
in its tax demands in second-round negotiations with aluminum companies.
Elsewhere in the Caribbean, Guyana is moving to nationalize the Reynolds'
operation by yearend.
Foreign Demand for US Ferrous Scrap in 1975 is not expected to substantially
exceed the US quota levels of 1974. In the absence of export quotas, some
inventory rebuilding by Japan and slight import boosts by Canada and Mexico
would be largely offset by softening demand for scrap in Western Europe. China,
a newcomer to the US scrap market, could more than double its purchases to
500,000 tons in 1975. This increase would amount to only 5% of US scrap exports
authorized for 1974.
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WORLD GRAIN OUTLOOK WORSENS
The world grain outlook has darkened even
further the past two months. We now forecast
production (excluding rice) at 910 million tons
in 1974/75-a 6?%o decline from 1973/74 instead
of the 4% decline anticipated in early October.
This revision is due to short corn harvests in the
United States, Western Europe, and the USSR.
Grain consumption also will drop, although not
as much as production. As a result, stocks are
expected to fall by 20 million tons from
mid-1974 to mid-1975, with most of the drop
occurring in US holdings.
World import demand for wheat (excluding
intra-EC trade) is estimated at 64 million tons
for 1974/75, up 3 million tons from the estimate
of two months ago and 2 million tons above
exports in 1973/74. The increase reflects larger-
than-expected purchases in recent months by
the USSR, South Asian countries (especially
India), and the newly affluent Middle East
states.
World Grain Production'
We estimate world wheat production will
fall by 20 million tons, or 5%, in 1974/75. The
USSR, Canada, and Argentina will suffer the
largest declines, while US and European produc-
tion will be higher. World supplies available for
export (excluding intra-EC trade) could amount 100
to as much as 64 million tons, if the United
States and Canada maintain their exports near
the 1973/74 level by drawing down stocks to
new lows. Argentina and Australia will be able to
expand wheat exports on the strength of good
harvests and/or ample carryover stocks from
1973/74. Exports from Western Europe, pri- 0
marily the EC, are unlikely to increase much, 1972n3 1973/74
because more wheat will be fed to livestock. 'Excluding rice
3
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Foreign demand for US wheat and flour is forecast at the 1973/74 level of 31
million tons. This level of exports would reduce US stocks by one-fourth, to a new low
of '5 million tons-only 3-1 /2 months of domestic supply.
Ending Grain Stocks of Major Exporters'
31.9
3.3
20.6
2.6
32.4
IWheat stocks as of 30 June for the United States, Argentina, Australia, and the EC.
Corn stocks as of 30 September for the United States; 30 April for South Africa;
31 March for Argentina; and 31 December for Thailand.
F?edgrains
The feedgrain situation also has worsened in the past two months, especially for
corn. Prospects for 1974/75 deteriorated with a cut of 17.5 million tons in the
estimated corn crop of the United States, the largest producer and exporter.
Even greater pressure on corn supplies will be avoided only because total import
demand will drop by an anticipated 15/0, to 36.7 million tons. The decline will stem
from high corn prices, depressed demand for livestock products, and substitution of
wheat for corn in livestock feeding in the EC. The EC is expected to feed at least an
additional 2 million tons of wheat to livestock this year.
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Meeting the projected import demand will mean a further drawdown of US
stocks and higher prices. We estimate export demand for US corn at 23.5 million
tons, down 8 million tons from 1973/74. Exports of this size would imply a 15% cut
in US domestic consumption and a 45% reduction in carryover stocks to less than 7
million tons, a rock-bottom reserve equal to 3 weeks' consumption.
Continuing Uncertainties
Major uncertainties remaining in the world grain market include:
? transport problems in Canada, Argentina, and South Africa;
? decisions of the Canadian Wheat Board on drawdowns of wheat stocks;
? the amount of wheat substituted for corn in livestock feeding in the EC;
? the extent of the decrease in US grain consumption;
? decisions on additional commercial grain purchases by India;
? availability of new financial aid to LDCs for grain purchases; and
? purchasing Policies of oil-rich Middle East countries.
THE DECLINE OF STERLING: CAUSES AND IMPLICATIONS
The pound declined sharply against most major European currencies last week
in the wake of Saudi Arabia's announcement that it would no longer accept sterling
payments for oil.
The impact of the Saudi action, which affects about $450 million in payments
monthly, was reinforced by the report of a record $1.2 billion UK trade deficit
for November. Growing uncertainty about the pound could induce other OPEC
members to reduce their sterling investment, which would:
? make it much more difficult for the British to finance their massive
current account deficit without raising interest rates to unacceptable
levels;
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? put substantial upward pressure on the West German mark and Swiss
franc, two alternative currencies for OPEC investment, and possibly tempt
both Bonn and Bern to impose additional exchange controls; and
? result in greater OPEC investment in dollar-denominated assets.
Attitude of Oil Producers
British and Saudi officials maintain that the change in payments does not
imply an end to Saudi investment in sterling.
Until recently, sterling has
accounted for 13% of Saudi foreign assets. Other oil producers, including Kuwait,
a major holder of pounds, may also decide to limit future sterling investment.
Implications for the United Kingdom
OPEC countries invested more than $4 billion - 12'/0 of their total
investment -- in sterling-denominated assets during the first nine months of 1974.
This was adequate to finance more than 60% of the UK's huge current account
deficit and enabled London to avoid substantial dollar borrowing.
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investment in Marks and Swiss Francs
As the sterling share of OPEC investments declines, the share of assets
denominated in marks, Swiss francs, and dollars will rise. The additional upward
pressure on the mark and franc might induce Bonn and Bern - both worried about
domestic economic conditions, particularly the competitive position of their
exports -- to impose additional exchange controls. To the extent the West Germans
and Swiss succeed in discouraging OPEC investment, even more oil money will
flow into dollar-denominated assets, both in the United States and in the Eurodollar
US GOLD AUCTION ANNOUNCEMENT: FOREIGN REACTION
The reaction of the major gold producers to the recent announcement of
a US gold auction on 6 Jaraary has so far been low-keyed. South Africa and
the Soviet Union could restrain supply sufficiently to offset the impact of US
sales, scheduled at 2 million; troy ounces.
South Africa has announced it plans no special action as a result of
Washington's decision. Pretoria has left open its option to reduce sales should the
price fall appreciably; in general, it probably will continue to sell enough gold
to cover foreign exchange needs. South African sales thus far in 1974 have totaled
about 720 tons (23 million ounces), compared with 822 tons in 1973. Gold sales
in 1975 would be about the same.
The Soviet Union has not indicated how it will react to the US auction.
Moscow traditionally has sold gold only to cover foreign exchange requiremerts.
In 1974, however, the Soviets sold aboui 91 tons in spite of their foreign exchange
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Dollars per
troy ounce
190
London Free Market Gold Price-'1974
Daily
trend
US January gold
'auction announced
Based on the afternoon fix in London on the
last trading day in each week.
?/Gold was fixed at an ,ill-time record'high of
$190.50 on November 18.
Feb
:I A 5 6 !11(111171:1161!
Dec
surplus. Moscow now apparently enters the market when prices are rising and
withdraws when they are declining. The USSR could afford to withhold gold from
the market in 1975 and is likely to do so should prices weaken substantially.
European reaction to the US decision has been mildly critical. Some
governments were probably disturbed by the lack of consultation. Many are
concerned that the January sale may drive the gold price down and keep it
depressed. This would reduce the value of their gold in helping finance payments
deficits. Italy has already pledged a portion of its gold holdings against a $2 billion
loan from West Germany.
The US auction will cushion the impact of the previously announced removal
of US restrictions on private ownership of gold. The longer term effect of the
January sale, and of possible further US sales, depends on such factors as:
? the actual level of US demand for gold for speculation and hoarding,
? the extent to which the present price already reflects new US demand,
and
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? the market strategies of major gold producers - South Africa and the
USSR.
Gold was fixed at $188.50 per troy ounce in London yesterday afternoon,
up $2.75 from 2 December, the day before Treasury Secretary Sinion announced
the US auction. The sharp increase over Monday's price of $183.00 is partly
attributable to the accord between the US and French Presidents to allow official
Central Bank gold holdings to be calculated in the future at current market prices.
TEXTILE INDUSTRY: CASUALTY OF THE RECs`SSION
The world economic slump has hit the textile industry particularly hard.
Massive lay-offs in the industry -- one of the largest employers of labor in most
economies -- have added to the demand for, expansionary policies. Competition
for shrinking markets has intensified pressures for tighter controls on textile
imports.
Textile production in Canada, West Germany, and the United Kingdom has
declined about 10% from last year's peak, while in Japan output has dropped 20%.
Layoffs in the industry include:
? West Germany, more than 95,000 workers since mid-1973, including
56,000 workers in 1974, or 17% of the increase in unemployment this
year.
? The United Kingdom, 28,000 workers this year through August, or 18%
of the increase in industrial unemployment.
? Canada, more than 10,000 workers from mid??1973 through September
1974, or 15% of the increase in unemployment during that period.
? Japan, about 20,000 full-time workers and 50,000 part-time workers this
year through November.
Because the textile industry includes a laigc number of small, financially weak
firms and employs a huge labor force, governments in most industrial countries
have come under strong pressure to provide special assistance. Japan is providing
9
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DEVELOPED COUNTRIES: Trends in Textile Production
Indexes: 1973 quarterly averape-100
EUROPEAN COUNTRIES
OTHER COUNTRIES
Seasonally adjusted
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RHODESIAN CHROME:
MODERATE EFFECTS OF A RENEWED US EMBARGO
several hundred million dollars in low-interest loans to the textile industry in
addition to special government subsidies for unemployment compensation for
textile workers. Most other industrial countries have introduced similar programs.
Australia has moved to tighten import restrictions on textiles. Japan, Canada,
and most West European countries are closely watching imports with an eye to
imposing new controls.
Developing countries that are major [extile exporters such as South Korea
and Taiwan have suffered from the sag in demand in industrial countries. Last
year, LDC textile exports totaled nearly $8 billion, about a third of' exports of
manufactured products. This year, South Korean textile exports, which accounted
for about 30`/, of overseas sales in 1973, have dropped sharply in volume terms
sincc mid-year because of cutbacks in Japanese and US purchases. Taiwan's textile
industry, which also provides about 30% of exports, has reportedly idled about
half its productive capacity because of the slack volume of exports, which absorb
the bulk of output.
Renewed US adherence to the
UN embargo of Rhodesian chrome
would not cause lasting supply prob-
lems, assuming that other major im-
porters continued to ignore the em-
bargo and that the United States
were willing to buy ferrochrome
from them. Prices presumably would
be under additional upward pressure
during the transition to alternative
sources.
The United States imports one-
third of its ferrochrome supply and
all the metallurgical chrome ore
needed for domestic production of
ferrochrome. If the United States
again embargoes Rhodesia-as is
being discussed in the Congress-
other sources would have to be found
for 1 1% of its ore imports and 33% of
US Chrome Imports -1973
Chrome Ore
(High Grade)
383,000 Tons
$11.3 Million
USSR
53%
Turkey
22%
Rhodesia
11%
South Africa
Others 5%
Ferrochrome
155,800 Tons
$352 Million
South Africa
35%
Rhodesia
33%
Others
14%
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its ferrochrome imports. In 1975 the US requirement for replacing about 40,000
tons of Rhodesian ore could readily be met by the USSR, already the source of
about one-half of US imports.
Over the long term, the United States will either have to accept substantial
amounts of Soviet ferrochrome or rely more heavily on other countries for ore and
ferrochrome. The USSR recently informed the United States of its intention to
phase out exports of ore by the end of 1980 and to supply only ferrochrome.
Moscow is negotiating with US, West European, and Japanese firms for the
construction of ferrochrome plants in the USSR, with repayment to be made in
ferrochrome exports. If negotiations are successful, the USSR will become one of
the world's largest ferrochrome producers.
The US need to acquire about 50,000 tons of ferrochrome annually from
non-Rhodesian sources would only temporarily disturb the world market balance,
provided that the United States were willing to buy from countries evading the
embargo. Enforcement of the embargo has been difficult because the national origin
of ferrochrome is hard to trace:
? European firms that handle a large part of world ferrochrome trade are in
a position to rechannel or obscure the true origin of Rhodesian exports.
? South African production of ferrochrome is based in part on mixtures of
imported Rhodesian ores and lower grade domestic ores.
US import prices for high-carbon ferrochrome have more than tripled during
the past 11 months, to 85 cents a pound (c.i.f.). Prices for imported
metallurgical-grade chrome ore h^"e almost doubled over the same period. These
jumps reflect the failure of chrome ore production to keep up with the growing
dem
d f
an
or stainless steel, which has z chromium content of up to 23%.
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US COAL: RISING EC DEMAND
EC demand for US coal will
continue to shoot up over the next
year.
Despite a 30% jump in coal im-
ports in 1974, EC countries have
been forced to draw heavily on
stocks to offset a fall in domestic
output. Pithead stocks now stand at
about 7 million tons, down from 24
million tons at the beginning of the
year. Coal demand in 1975 should
rise at least 4% above the depressed
level of this year with the return to a
normal workweek in the United
Kingdom and the substitution of
coal for oil throughout the Com-
munity. With no further strikes, pro-
duction will recover to an estimated
252 million tons, still 7% below the
1973 level. As a result, EC coal im-
ports are expected to rise from 39
million tons in 1974 to 54 rni:lion
tons next year.
European Community
Coal Trends
01 I I I I I I 1
1970 72 74 76 I 78
-051.- --Prol? -
1. Assuming a 2i annual increase in consumption,
l/,% annual increase in production,
and 2-million-ton addition to stocks each year.
504880 11.74
The long-term energy plan of the EC Commission implies growth in coal con-
sumption of 2% annually in 1976-78. Much of this rise in coal consumption also will
have to be covered by imports, which are projected to reach 66 million tons in 1978.
Little increase can be expected in EC coal output beyond the 1975 level. Indeed,
the EC Commission judges that merely halting the long-term decline calls for a
doubling of mining investment from the 1973 level-an increase that will not take
place unless European governments provide special incentives. Even the current high
prices for coal do not compensate for the high costs of extraction In some instances.
Investment in the industry will drop by as much as one-third in 1975 unless
governments act promptly.
Although loath to become heavily dependent on a single coal source, the EC
countries will have to turn to the United States to cover much of the rise in
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EC Coal Imports
Total
32.8
31.1
31.6
29.8
39.0
United States
15.5
13.8
13.0
10.7
13.0
Poland
10.3
9.7
10.8
12.2
16.0
Soviet Union
4.3
3.9
3.6
3.3
3.3
Australia
0.7
2.2
2.8
2.0
2.9
Other countries
2.0
1.5
1.4
1.6
3.8
requirements. Purchases from Poland, now the largest source, are expected to grow
from 16 million tons in 1974 to perhaps 24 million tons by 1978. The EC will run
into stiff competition from Japan in obtaining more coal from Australia. Imports
from the USSR may decline because of the growing need for coal in the USSR and
Eastern Europe.
EC industrial users already are negotiating long-term contracts with US coal
producers. They have offered long-term loans for expanding US coal output and
have bought into several mining operations. All told, the deals already signed or
under negotiation could raise annual purchases from the United States to 32 million
tons over the next three years.
Communist Aid and Trade Activities in Less Developed Countries,
November 1974
(ER RP 74-25, December 1974,
This month's publication features developments in Communist economic and
military aid programs in Near Eastern and South Asian countries and on the
expansion of trade with Latin America.
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INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION I
INDEX 1970 Monthly Average-100
GNP,
RETAIL SALES,
Average Annual Growth gain since
t'arcunl Change
latest tram Pruviuus I Year J Months
Mauch Month 1010 Earlier Earlier 2
Constant Market Prices
Average Annual Growth Rote Since Constant Prices
Average Annual Growth Rate Since
Percent Change
Percent Change
latest train Previous 1 Year Previous latest Iron Previous I Year 7 Months
Quarter Quarter 1970 Earlier Quarter Month Month 1970 Earlier Em h
2
United States
74111
-0.5
3.2
-2.2
-2.1 United States
Oct 74
-1.3
2.3
-5.7
er
-4.1
Japan
74 111
-0.2
5.3
-3.9
-0.8 Japan
Jul 74
-3.1
1
1.0
-11.0
9.4
West Germany
74 11
- 0.7
3.1
1.1
- 2.9 West Germany
Aug 74
-3.6
1.4
-4.5
-12.6
France
73 IV
1.7
5.8
6.0
7.0 France
Jun 74
-6.7
-0.8
-1.0
-8.9
United Kingdom i
74111
1.0 i
2.7
0.6
4.2 United Kingdom
Nov 74
0.4
2.8
-0.1
8.5
Italy
73 IV
1.9 1
3.7
5.3
7.7 Italy
Jun 74
4.6
6.3
10.2
-1 /.0
Canada
74111
0
5.3
4.1
0 Canada
Sep 74
-3.7
4.5
3.4
3.6
Office of Economic Research/CIA
18 DECEMBER 1974
Note: US data provided by US government agencies
Footnotes appear on page A 4.
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DOMESTIC PRICES'
INDEX: 1910 Monthly Average-100
Average Annual Gruwlh Maio Since
l iiiccnl Chnoge
Latest Irani Pruviolls I Year 3 Munllis
Month Month 1970 Eurlior Earlier
United State
Japan
West Germany
France
United Kingdom
Italy
Canada
Percent change
Latest Irani Previous 1 Year 3 Months
Month Month 1970 Earlier Earlier 2
Oct 74 0.4 1 5.8 5.7 2.2 United States
Aug 74 -1.0 10.8 13.1 15.6 Japan
Sep 74 I 0.9 9.2 9.7 12.8 West Germany
Jul 74 -3.3 11.4 8.1 10.8 France
Ocr 74 1.5 8.5 5.3 8.5 United Kingdom
Jun 74 2.4 20.8 16.6 19.6 Italy
Oct 14 0 11.6 ( 5.8 -7.0 Canada
Sr.p 74
Oct 74
Nov 74
Nov 74
11,0
18.3
21.2
i
I
Llr.t 74
Oct 74
Sep 71,
0;1
Illl
!27
11lI
Oct 74
0.9 6.8
11.6
10.4
Pelcnnl Ch arlne
Latest Irani Previous
1 Year
3 Months
Montle Period 1970
Earlier
Earlier 2
Sep 74
1, 1.1
I 7.1 1
11 0
13.4
Aug 74
-2.1
22.6
39.7
59.8
74 II
3.1
11.4
12.7
13.1
74 111
6.0
13.8
20.5
26.4
Aug 74
6.6
14.2
16.2
33.3
Aug 74
3.0
17.9
20.7
25.7
Aug 74
1.6
10.0
15.2
18.9
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 FOREIGN TRADE'
INDEX 1 1070 Monthly Average-100 If.u h /Lu.b.l
Italy
134
BASIC BALANCE5
Current and Long -Term-Capital Transactions
Semilagarithmic Scale
1974
1975
Latest Period Cumulative IMillirn US S)
Million US S 1974 1973 Change
United States I
74 II
-2,740
-954
-2,164
1,210
United States
Japan
Oct 74
436
-8.833
-8,978
-1,855
Japan
West Germany
Oct 74
877
5,935
8,236
-2,301
West Germany
France
74 II
-826
-1,272
-515
-757
France
United Kingdom
74 II
-1,297
-2,951
-868
-2,083
United Kingdom
Italy
74 I
- 2,037
-2.037
-872
-1.164
Italy
Canada
18 DECEMBER 1974
74 II
-445
-613
-6
-608
Canada
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Late
rl Mmuh
Cumu
lative (Mi
llion US $1
Oct 74
8,605
80,240
57,012
40.7%
1 11,6:6
112,551
!1(1,41111
411
2,317
552
-2,809
5,277
44,270
29.169
151.87E
4,477
43 0117
25, 1!III
711 11,
7,195
73,150
55,088
1 31.4%
5S 11
:1.1,553
42,345
211 5
1,644
13.343
6,244
3.784
38,090
30,215
26.1%
4,207
41,1105
29,1143
433".
-3,515
3,016
32.760
25.662
27.7%
4,758
44,004
39,739
43.2"..
Balance
-11,244
-5,077
-6,167
Oct 74
2.758 1
24.681
17,881
38.0%
3.227
30,71!1
19,9511
53ll':.
Belo ncu
469
-6.033
-2,087
-3,946
Oct 74
2,875
26,992
20,689
30.5%
2.798
2.6,17 7
18,941
38.21;,
Balance
815
1,748
-933
Billion US $
Latest Man'h
I Y
ar
3 Month
e
End of lillion US S Jun 1970 Earlier
s
Earlier
Oct 74
15.9
14.5 14.4 j
14.9
Nov 74
13.7
13.2
12.9
Nov 74
35.4
34.1
33.1
Oct 74
8.9
10.1
8.3
Nov 74
7.8
6.6
6.8
Oct 74
6.9
6.2
5.6
Nov 74
5.8
5.7
5.9
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 Approved For Release 2009/09/29: CIA-RDP85T00875RO01500150054-7
United States
Japan
West Germany
France
United Kingdom
Canada
Eurodollars
EXPORT PRICES
National Currency
United States
Japan
West Germany
France
l;.ited Kingdom
Italy
Canada
EXPORT PRICES
us $
United Statee
Japan
West Germany
France
United Kingdom
Italy
Canada
Ilop(esentativu Holes
Dooler?placod finance paper
Coll money
Intorbonk loans (3 mon(lrs)
Coll money
Sterling Interbank loans(3 months)
Finance paper
Three-month deposits
Latest Date
Doc 4 9.22
Nov 22 13.00
Percent [into of Interest
I Year 3 Months I Month
Earlier Earlier Earlier
8.25 11.78 9.00
9.25 13.50 12.50
Dec 4 8.63 13.00 9.40 I 9.43
Nov 29 12.00 11.25 13.38 i 12.88
Doc 4
Doc 4
Doc 4
12.84 15.50 12.09 11.48
10.53 9.13 11.93 10.65
10.81 10.48 12.98 10.00
Average Annual Growth Rare Since
Latest
Perc
bor
ent Chan
n Previo
ge
us I Year 3 Months
Montle
Month
1970 Earlier Earlier
Oct 74
1.0
12.9
26.5 33.9
Oct 74
-0.1
, Id.7
36.8 14.J
St.p 74
-0.2
5.7
20.9 22.5
Jun 74
3.3
11.1
28.5 42.5
Oct 74
0.8
13.4
30.4 10.4
Jul 74
3.9
15.4 42.8 43.4
Jul 74
1.7 1
12.4 38.3 13.5
Average Annual Growth Hale Since
Latest
Perc
from
ent Chan
Previou
ge
s
I Year
3 Months
Manlh
Month
1970
Earlier
Earlier
Oct 74
'.0
12.9
1 26,5
33.9
Oct 74
-0.1
15.6
21.5
-4.1
Sep 74
-1.7
14.0
10.0
0.3
Jun 74
2.5
14.7
11.5
33.5
Oct 74
1.2
12.6
24.9
-0.6
Jul 74
4.8
14.6
28.6
35.7
Jul 74
0.7
14.3
I 41.5
9.4
IMPORT PRICES
National Currency
United States
Japan
West Germany
France
United Kingdom
Italy
Canada
EXCHANGE RATES
Spot Pile
As of 13 Dec 74
Average Annual Growth note Since
Percerll Change
Latest from Previous I Year 3 Months
Month Month 1970 Earlier Earlier
Oct 74 0.5 19.4 49.7 10.9
Oct 74 0.8 16.7 72.9 12.0
Sep 74 -1.1 7.0 32.6 9.9
Jun 74 0 15.6 61.5 37.0
Oct 74 1.5 21,0 46.4 16.9
Jul 74 -2.4 24,8 68.5 7.3
Jul 74 1.8 11.6 32.5 39.7
Us S
Pet Unit Dec 66 18 Dec 71 19 Mar 73 8 Dec 74
0.0033 20.70 2.50 -12.44 -0.30
West Germany (Deutsche mark) 0.4063 61.61 30.94 14.74 0.67
France Ilrancl 0.2188 8.37 11.12 -0.73 0.83
United Kingdom (pound sterling) 2.3130 -17.11 -11.23 -6.01 -0.69
Italy Viral
Canada (dollar)
0.0015 -5.37 -11.92 -14.41 0.00
1.0138 9.89 1.58 1.59 0.07
United States
Japan
West Germany
France
United Kingdom
Italy
Canada
FOOTNOTES FOR WEEKLY INDICATORS
Doc 66
18 Dec 71
1. Seasonally adjusted.
2. Average for latest 3 months compared with average for previous 3 months.
-15.53 1
-6.20
-0.16
3. Wholesale price indexes cover industrial goads.
11.61
-1.90
'13.71
0.43
4. Hourly earnings lot the United States. Japan, and Canada;
33.30
18.13
11.04
0.04
hourly wage rates lot others. West German and French data
are for the beginning of the quartet.
-16.61
-3.21
-5.87
0.31
5. Converted to US dollars at the current market tales of exchange.
-38.98
-24.50
-9.93
-1.19
6. Weighting is based an each listed country's trade with 16 other industrialized countries
-30.86
-29.23 -22.22
to rellecl the competitive impact of excheng^ rate variations among the major currencies.
7.18 1
0.5b 2.24 1
0.06
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 Approved For Release 2009/09/29: CIA-RDP85T00875RO01500150054-7
Mar. I M1. rF I' G.7
(Monthly Average Price)
Lurldori Mii I?il
EXcI I anclc*
16 Dec
Week Ago
Nov 74
Average
Dec 73
Average
Copper-LME (C per pound)
56.9
60.3
64.1
101.3
Copper-US (C per pound)
72.6
72.6
75.6
65 7
Lead-LME (C per pound)
24.2
24.4
24.2
27.0
Lead- US (C per pound)
24.5
24.5
24.5
17.7
Zinc-LME (C per pound)
35.0
35.5
36.0
73.8
Zinc-US (C per pound)
38.0
38.0
38.0
27.4
Tin-LME (C per pound)
326.9
327.7
335.5
294.7
Tin-US (C per pound)
354.2
358.5
371.0
300.5
Steel scrap ($ per long ton)
N.A.
86.5
102.2
79.1
Platinum-US dealer ($ per troy ounce)
167.5
176.0
177.3
158.5
Platinum-US producer (S per troy ounce)
190.0
190.0
190.0
158.0
'Approximates world market price frequently used by major world producers and traders,
although only small quan itles of these metals are actually traded on the LME.
"Producers' price, covers most primary metals sold in the United States.
f Quoted on New York market, ttComposite price for Chicago, Philadelphia, and Pittsburgh.
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 Approved For Release 2009/09/29: CIA-RDP85T00875RO01500150054-7
AGRICULTURAL PRICES
(Monthly Average Price)
J1972
SUGAR
SOYBEANS
Jul
1972 73
CORN
~o"'?!a,r
h
loo L, 1---_J
Jul
1972 73 74
* This is a compiled index by the Economist
for 16 food commodities which enter i.vernational
trade. Commodities are weighted by 3-year moving
averages of imports into industrialized countrtc,.
COMMODITIES Cash Prices
16 Dec
Week
Ago
Nov 74
Average
Dec 73
Average
Wheat-Kansas City #2 Hard Winter ($ per bushel)
4.68
4.73
4.88
5.73
Corn-Chicago #2 Yellow ($ per bushel)
3.57
3.54
3.51
2.64
Soybeans-Chicago #1 Yellow (S per bushes)
7.41
7.18
7.67
5.95
Sugar-World Raw New York #11 (0 per pound)
42.25
46.50
56.80
11.80
Cotton-Memphis ($ per pound)
0.3940
0.4155
0.4190
0.7840
Approved For Release 2009/09/29: CIA-RDP85T00875RO01500150054-7