COMMUNIST CHINA'S TRADE WITH THE INDUSTRIAL WEST IN 1969 AND PROSPECTS FOR 1970

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP85T00875R001600030103-4
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: C
• Document Page Count: 18
• Document Creation Date: December 22, 2016
• Document Release Date: October 27, 2011
• Sequence Number: 103
• Publication Date: July 1, 1970
• Content Type: IM

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-- . r / ."'-I .r-- - ? - - ? -v '-L/ .--) E 7
Confidential
DIRECTORATE.' OF
INTELLIGENCE
Intelligence Memorandum
Communist China's Trade With The Industrial West In 1969
And Prospects For-197a
ER IM 70-103
July__1970
Copy No. 56
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WARNING
'I'19s document contains information affecting the national
defense of the United States, within the meaning of Title
18, sections 793 and 794, of the US Code, as amended.
Its transmission or revelation of its contents to or re-
ceipt by an unauthorized person is prohibited by law.
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CONFIDENTIAL
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
Directorate of Intelligence
July 1970
Communist China's Trade
With The Industria West In 1969
And Prospects For
Introduction
Roughly two-thirds of Communist China's trade
with the Industrial West represents imports that
are highly important to China's industry and agri-
culture. These imports include specialized equip-
ment and materials crucial to China's military
development programs. This memorandum examines
the pattern of Chinese imports and exports during
1969 to determine changes to the level, direction,
and commodity composition of China's trade with the
Industrial West. An attempt is also made to pro-
ject China's 1970 trade with the Industrial West
on the basis of early returns from China's trading
partners, contract information, and other current
reporting.
General
1. China's tra with the Industrial West in
1969 recovered from the downturn that occurred in
1968, rising n,:arly 4% from $1,870 million to
$1,940 million. A 12% spurt in exports from $620
million to $695 million accounted for the growth
in trade; imports remained at roughly the same
level as in 1968. China's tna'.ie with the Industrial
Note: This memorandum was produced, solely by CIA.
It was prepared by,the Office of Economic Research.
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West since 1966, including tentative projections
for 1970, is shown in the following tabulation:
Million US $
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
Turnover
1, 845
1,980
1, 870
1,940
2,150
Imports
1,140
1,345
1,250
1,245
1,400
Exports
705
635
620
695
750
Balance
-435
-710
-630
-(50
-650
2. Trade with the Industrial West (see Table 1)
accounted for about 50% of China's total trade in
1968 and probably accounted for the same share in
1969. The developed countries provided more than
two-thirds of China's total imports and purchased
nearly one-third of its total exports.
3. Continued improvement in the performance
of the domestic economy was the prime force leading
to renewed growth in China's trade with the Indus-
trial West. A more favorable political environment
also made trade relations much easier, especially
with the United Kingdom. And economic factors con-
tinue to be more important than political consider-
ations in China's trade relations with Japan.
Composition of Imports
4. China obtains virtually all of its grain
and chemical fertilizer imports, as well as more
than 90% of its imports of steel and nonferrous
metals, from the Industrial West. Grain and fer-
tilizer accounted for nearly 40% of China's imports
from the Industrial West in 1969, while steel pur-
chases constituted 20% of the total (see Table 2).
Machinery and equipment imports dropped from $135
million to $110 million. Purchases of nonferrous
metals soared nearly 70% from $115 million to
$195 million. Platinum and copper accounted for
more than four-fifths.of China's purchases of non-
ferrous metals. Purchases of industrial diamonds
increased from about $20 million in 1968 to more
than $25 million in 1.969. With purchases well
beyond current needs, some portion of these stra-
tegic commodities is being added to China's stock-
piles.
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5. China's'grain purchases in 1969 were sched-
uled to rise, but actual imports fell below the
previous year's level as France delivered only two-
fifths of its scheduled amount. Deliveries from
France were carried over into early 1970, but no
new contract has yet been announced. New contracts
with both Canada and Australia call for an increase
of about 10% in China's grain imports in 1970.
China's fertilizer purchases remained at about
$200 million in 1969. Japan's share grew 10% while
deliveries from West European suppliers dropped
slightly below the level of 1968.
Composition of Exports
6. Tho composition of China's exports to the
Indust..rial West was dominated by its traditional
products. Exports of crude materials jumped 21%
from $280 million to $340 million (see Table 3),
and rose in relative term,5 from 45% to 49% of
total exports. Foodstuff exports, in contrast,
r~ieclined from $135 million to $115 million, or
from 22% to 17% of exports; larger exports of meat
and fish products to Western Europe were not suf-
ficient to offset tho, curtailment of Japan's pur-
chases of Chinese rice. Textile fibers and crude
animal materials, such as hides, skins, and bris-
tles, were primarily responsible for the rise in
exports of crude materials. China also expanded
its exports of manufactured goods almost 10% in
1969. Textile yarns and fabrics, as well as
clothing, led the expansion in this category of
China's exports.
Major Trading Partners
7. Although China's total imports from the
Industrial West dropped only slightly from $1,250
million to $1,245 million, significant changes
occurred among some of its major trading partners.
Imports from Western Europe dropped 9% from $625
million to $570 million, whereas purchases from
Japan climbed 20% from $345 million to $415 million.
Nearly all of China's major trading partners shared
in its export expansion in 1969. Exports to Western
Europe grew by 13% from $335 million to $380 million
while exports to Japan rose 8% from $222 million to
$239 million. At the same time, China expanded its
sales to Canada and Australia by 20% and 25%, respec-
tively.
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8. impot ts of chemical fertilizer from Western
Europe dropped from the previous year's level of
$120 million to about $110 million; whereas pur-
chases of chemical fertilizer from Japan rose about
9% from $81 million to $88 million.. China's total
imports of steel from the Industrial West rose
slightly in 1969 from $240 million to $245 million,
but Japan's share increased from about $145 million
to about $175 million while purchases from Western
Europe fell from about $95 million to about $70 mil-
lion.
9. Japan's competitive advantage over Western
Europe in trade with China was also evident in the
switching of purchases of machinery and equipment
from-Western Europe to Japaa. Thus, while China's
purchases of West European machinery dropped from
about,.$l00 million to about $60 million, imports of
machinery and equipment from Japan jumped from about
$35 million to about $50 million.
Jap-zn;
10. Japan consolidated its position as China's'
largest trading partner, with a 15% jump in total
turnover, from $567 million to'$654 million. 'China's
imports surged 20% from $345 million to $415 million,
and exports to Japan rose almost 8% from $222 mil
lion to.$239 million. Nearly every category of
China's imports from Japan rose in 1969, especially
steel, machinery, nonferrous metals, and chemical
fertilizer. The much smaller increase in China's
exports resulted from a drop in Japan's purchases
of China's rice, which partly offset the expansion
in China's exports of crude materials and manufac-
tured goods to Japan. L' addition, Japan's in-
creasing-importance as a supplier of advanced
industrial products is contributing to China's
growing dependence on a single supplier for some
strategic goods. This increasing dependence on
Japan and the continuing huge deficit in trade with
Japan represent structural developments in China's
trade which are likely to continue. China's demand
for the products-of Japanese industry, which the
Chinese economy itself cannot produce, and Japan's
cost advantages over its West European competitors
have reinforced this contradiction of stated Chinese
policy.
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West Ge"many
11. West Germany remained China's "Largest trading
partner in Western Europe as total turnover rose
slightly from $272 million to $280 million. Both
China's imports and exports shared in the increase
as West Germany continued to be an important sup-
plier of steel, chemicals, machinery, and nonferrous
metals and a market for China's exports of food-
stuffs and raw materials. Imports from West Germany
totaled $202 million in 1969 while exports amounted
to $78 million. China's willingness to incur such
a large deficit in trade with West Germany demon-
strates the importance of the products of West
Germany's modern industry to the Chinese economy
and reflects the importance of economic factors
in determining the direction of China's trade.
United Kingdom
12. The United Kingdom was the major beneficiary
of China's stockpiling activities in 1969. China's
imports from the United Kingdom nearly doubled from
$70 million to $131 million as purchases of indus-
trial diamonds climbed from about $12 million to
nearly $25 million and purchases of nonferrous
metals soared from $25 million to about $80 million.
China's purchases of machinery from the United
Kingdom, ;however, amounted to less than $10 million,
which is still substantially below the 1966 level
of $45 million. China's exports to the United
Kingdom rose 11% from $71 million to $79 million.
Crude materials accounted for about 40% of China's
sales while manufactured goods, consisting primarily
of diamonds, textiles, and leather goods, constituted
about 30%. Most of the $8 million of diamonds re-
ported as imports by the United Kingdom were prob-
ably rejects of diamonds previously exported by the
United Kingdom, thus artificially inflating total
.turnover between the two countries. Foodstuffs
accounted for almost another 20% of China's total
exports.
13. Trade with the United Kingdom thus recov-
ered from the precipitous drop of 1968, but the
composition of China's imports has undergone sig-
nificant changes and future trade developments may
be marked by wide fluctuations rather than steady
growth. The dominance of such strategic goods as
platintun, copper, and industrial diamonds in China's
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import bill could be reversed once the Chinese decide
that their reserves are adequate.
14. Sino-French trade plunged 32% from $7.70 mil-
lion to $115 million even though China's exports to
France increased more than 25% from $51 million to
$65 million. China's imports plummeted from $119
million to $50 million as deliveries of French wheat
dropped from about $40 million to about $20 million
and imports of aluminum were slashed from $20 mil-
lion to less than $5 million. Purchases of chemicals
were cut back by about one-third to less than $10 mil-
lion and imports of transportation equipment from
France dropped from about $10 million in 1968 to
about $5 million in 1969.
Italy
15. Trade with Italy remained at roughly the
same level as in 1968, declining only slightly from
$126 million to $125 million. The balance of trade
between imports and exports changed significantly,
however, as China expanded its exports from $43 mil-
lion to $57 million and cut back its imports from
$83 million to $68 million. China thus reduced the
deficit in its trade with Italy and at the same
time enlarged the market for some of its traditional
exports by nearly doubling i':' sales of raw silk to
Italy to about $25 million. Chemical fertilizers
accounted for a major portion of China's imports
from Italy, but total purchases from Italy declined
as did imports from all the remaining countries in
Western Europe.
Canada and Australia
16. China narrowed slightly the huge deficits
in trade with its major grain suppliers, with a
small decline in the value of grain imports and
increases in its exports to both Canada and Aus-
tralia. Trade with Canada fell in 1969 as China
cut back its imports from $160 million to about
$132 million and increased its exports from $25
million to $30 million. Imports of Canadian wheat
fell from 2.2 million tons to about 1.8 million
tons. At the same time, China increased its pur-
chases of Australian wheat from 1.6 million tons
to about 1.9 million tons. China's imports from
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^ CONFIDENTIAL
Australia thus rose from $115 million to $125 mil-
lion and its exports rose from $32 million to
$40 million.
Balance of Trade
17. China incurred another enormous deficit in
trade with the Industrial West, but still succeeded
in-reducing it from $630 million to about $550 mil-
lion. Trade with Hong Kong, Singapore, and less
developed countries as well as remittances from
overseas Chinese probably provided sufficient hard.
currency earnings to offset the deficit in trade
with the developed countries and to produce a small
surplus in China's balance of trade with the Free
World as a whole. Exports to Hong Kong rose from
$310 million in 1968 to $326 million in 1969,
while imports from Hong Kong were any $1.4 million
in 1968 and $1.2 million in 1969.
Prospects
18. The early returns from China's trading
partners, contract?information, and other current
reporting -- especially about the Spring Canton
Fair -- suggest that trade with the Industrial
West in 1970 will rise above $2 billion for the
first time, increasing perhaps 10% above the 1969
level. If China continues to expand its exports
while moderating the upward thrust in its imports
that occurred in the early months of 1970, imports
probably will rise somewhat more than 10% and ex-
ports about 10%.
19. During the early months of 1970, China's
trade with the Industrial West displayed a striking
upsurge of more i;han 50% in China's imports and a
moderate increase of about 10% in its exports in
comparison with the same period in 1969, as indi-
cated by the following tabulation of unadjusted
trade returns from five major trading partners:
7
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Million US $
January-March 1969
January-March 1970
Turn-
over
Im-
ports
Ex-
ports
Turn-
over
Im-
ports
Ex-
ports
Total
294
162
132
401
255
146
West.Germany
68
48
20
67
43
24
United Kingdom,
54
32
22
59
38
21
France
25
8
17
44
28
16
Italy
32
17
15
31
12
19
Japan
115
57
58
200
134
66
20. Much of the increase in imports from Japan
is the result of continuing deliveries of steel and
chemicals, part of the large contracts signed in
1969. The carryover of deliveries of French wheat
and continuing large purchases of nonferrous metals
and industrial diamonds from the United Kingdom were
largely responsible for the increase in imports from
Western Europe. In contrast, China's imports from
West Germany and Italy dropped in early 1970 below
the level of the comparable period in 1969, while
its exports to these two countries rose slightly.
21. China's grain purchases are scheduled to
increase more than 10% from $260 million (4.0 mil-
lion tons) to about $290 million (4.6 million tons).
Partial returns for early 1970 indicate that de-
liveries are being made on schedule and suggest
that the contracts will be fulfilled. China's
grain purchases in 1969 were originally scheduled
at 4.5 million tons, but deliveries of both Aus-
tralian and French wheat fell behind schedule. In
.September 1969, after Canada had fulfilled its con-
tract for 1.6 million tons, China signed another
contract for 2.3 million tons to be delivered by
September 1970. Part of this contract was com-
pleted during the fourth quarter of 1969, but about
2 million tons remained to be delivered in 1970.
China received only 330,000 tons of French wheat
in 1969 out of the scheduled 800,000 tons. Deliv-
eries of large quantities of wheat from France were
continuing in early 1970 but no new contract has
been announced. By December 1969, Australia had
completed delivery of about 1.9 million tons of
the 2.2 million tons to be delivered by March 1970.
8-
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In September 1969, another Sino-Australian agree-
ment had been concluded which called for the de-
livery of 2.2 million tons by October 1970.
22. In regard to purchases of chemical ferti--
lizer, representatives of Japanese producers and
Nitrex, a West European cartel, began negotiating
with the Chinese during the 1970 Spring Canton Fair.
In 1969, China signed a contract with Japan in May
and with Nitrex in July. Nearly all of the ferti-
lizer from Japan in 1969 was delivered during the
second half of the year. Deliveries from Western
Europe, however, were distributed fairly evenly
throughout the year because some of the early de-
livaries were part of a carryover from the previous
year and some later ones resulted from the signing
Japanese pro-
ducers will probably be obliged to offer comparable
price concessions to compete with the West European
suppliers. China apparently received sufficient
chemical fertilizer in early 1970 to provide for
spring planting needs before any new contracts
were signed.
23. China's. purchases of steel from the Indus-
trial West in 1970 may rise slightly over the
$245 million (1.5 million tons) purchased in 1969.
Japan's share of China's steel imports probably
will continue to rise while the West European share
will decline again in both absolute and relative
terms.
24. Purchases of machinery and equipment from
the Industrial West, which declined from $135 mil-
lion in 1968 to $110 million in 1969, may rise
substantially in 1970 if contracts for imports of
trucks from Japan and several other suppliers are
fulfilled. Certain items such as machine tools
.and bearings will probably also continue to rise.
Japan's competitive advantage will probably lead
to larger purchases of machinery and equipment.
from Japan and perhaps a further drop in purchases
from Western Europe. There is still no evidence
of a revival of large-scale imports of whole plants
by China, although there have been occasional ref-
erences to renewed interest.
25X1
25X1
g _
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25. Preliminary reports cf the 1970 Spring
Canton Fair provide further evidence of the recovery
of China's economy from the excesses of the Cultural
Revolution. There was a further reduction in the
intensity of political propaganda below the level
of recent fairs and businesslike behavior on the
part of the Chinese trade representatives. Japanese
traders reported that for the Spring Fair a record
volume of $131 million in trade contracts was con-
cluded.
26. Some uncertainty in prospects for Sino-
Japanese trade has been created by Chou En-lai's
announcement that China would exclude from trade
any Japanese firms with interests in Taiwan or
South Korea, subsidiaries of US firms, and firms
supporting the US military effort in Southeast Asia.
This probably will not affect overall Sino-Japanese
trade but may influence the shares of individual
Japanese firms in trade with China. Negotiations
for China's fertilizer imports from Japan have been
more prolonged in 1970 than in 1969, and contracts
for steel imports do not yet indicate any significant
changes in Chinese purchases. On the other hand,
Japan has already obtained large new contracts for
transport equipment in 1970 and its competitive
advantage over Western Europe may enable the Jap-
anese to increase their sales of steel and ferti-
lizer further in 1970. Thus trade with Japan still
is expected to rise more than 10% in 1970 , in part
because of the exceptionally large volume of Chinese
imports from Japan in the first quarter of 1970,
which was bolstered by a carryover of the large
contracts fcz- steel and chemicals originally sched-
uled to be delivered late last year.
27. Trade with Western Europe probably will
rise only moderately in 1970 as higher imports of
French wheat offset some reductions in China's
purchases of steel and machinery from its West
European suppliers. China's purchases of non-
ferrous metals and industrial diamonds from the
United Kingdom continued to rise sharply in the
early months of 1970, but such imports can change
quickly and may not hold up for the entire year.
No further contracts for purchases of French wheat
have been announced, although purchases, from Canada
and Australia are scheduled to rise in 1970. Trade
with major suppliers of goods intended as inputs in
China's industry, such as West Germany and Italy,
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declined in early 1970, while Japan became increas-
ingly dominant as a supplier of steel, machinery,
and chemicals.
Conclusions
28. China's trade with the Industrial West in
1969 recovered from the temporary downturn in 1968
that occurred in the aftermath of the Cultural
Revolution. Total trade in 1969 almost equaled
the level of 1967, with exports higher and imports
lower than in 1967. China, however, depends on
export earnings from other areas, especially Hong
Kong and Singapore, and remittances from overseas
Chinese to offset the huge deficit it incurs to
import essential goods from the Industrial West.
29. The gradual restoration of order in the
domestic economy since mid-1968 has permitted an
expansion of exports. At the same time, China
maintained a tight rein on imports in 1969, holding
them to the 1968 level. The most significant
change in the composition of imports resulted from
China's intensified purchasing of nonferrous metals,
in part for stockpiling purposes. imports of ma-
chinery and equipment continued to decline, to
$110 million in 1969 from $135 million in 1968 and
$230 million in 1967.
30. China's foodstuff exports to the industrial
West dropped in 1969 as Japan curtailed its pur-
chases of Chinese rice. Other foodstuff exports,
especially meat and fish, rose moderately as China
increased its penetration into European markets.
However, crude animal materials, textiles, and
other agricultural products provided the main
stimulus for the growth of China's exports to the
Industrial West.
31. Although China's total imports remained at
the 1968 level in 1969, purchases from Japan grew
by 20% as a result of Japan's comparative cost
advantage over its West European competitors.
Trade in 1969 strengthened Japan's position as
China's largest trading partner and most important
supplier of industrial goods. The United Kingdom
was the only other major trading partner with a
substantial gain in trade, benefiting from an
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improved political environment and China's strong
investment in industrial diamonds and nonferrous
metals.
32. Early trade returns for 1970 indicate a
further rise in China's exports of traditional
commodities and a renewal of growth in imports.
This information plus contract data and other
current reporting suggests that China's trade
with the Industrial West is likely to exceed
$2 billion for the first time. Purchases from
Japan more than doubled in the first three months
of 1970 over the first quarter of 1969, in part
because of imports of steel, chemicals, and other
commodities originally scheduled for 1969 delivery.
Partial returns from several West European trading
partners indicate a cont;nuing rise in China's
purchases of nonferrous i::atals, but probably a
further decline in imports of machinery and equip-
ment from Western Europe. The scheduled increases
in China's imports of wheat from 4.0 million tons
in 1969 to 4.6 million tons in 1970 will probably
be attained if deliveries proceed at the current
'rate for the rest of the year.
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Communist China's Trade with the Industrial West a/
1967
1968
1969 b/
Turnover
Imports
Exports
Turnover
Imports
Ex
o
t
T
p
r
s
urnover
Imports
Exports
n
Total
1,980
1,345
635
1,870
1,250
620
1,940
1,245
695
O
Western Europe
Of which:
1,030
720
310
960
625
335
950
570
380
ai!
West Germany
United Kin
dom
296
203
231
65
272
196
76
280
202
78
Z
g
France
142
135
68
141
70
71
210
131
79
Italy
138
102
40
170
119
51
115
50
65
Netherlands
39
89
49
126
83
43
125
68
57
Sweden
63
16
23
57
33
24
66
42
24
Switzerland
40
49
14
50
34
16
34
18
16
25
15
38
23
15
36
17
19
Japan
569
303
266
567
345
222
654
415
239
Canada
130
105
25
185
160
25
162
132
30
Australia
232
203
29
147
115
32
165
125
40
a. Data for individual countries are rounded to the nearest $1 million. All other data are rounded
to the nearest $5 million. Because of rounding, components may not add to the totals shown. Esti-
mates are based on reasonably complete statistics and are adjusted to show Chinese imports c.i.f. and
exports f.o.b.
b. Preliminary estimates.
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Communist China's Imports
from the Industrial .lest a/
1967
1968
1969 Y
1,345
2,250
1J245
Foodstuffs
295
305
260
Crude materials, fuels,
and edible oils
30
55
35
Chemicals
275
280
280
Of which:
Fertilizer
200
200
200
Manufactures
725
585
650
Of which:
Textile yarns and fabric
40
30
30
Iron and steel
295
240
245
Nonferrous metals
75
115
195
Machinery and equipment
230
135
110
Other
?0
25
20
e: Data are rounded to the nearest $5 mft ion. Because of
rounding, coi-tponante may not add to the totals shown. Esti-
mates are based an incomplete statistics and are adjusted to
show Chinese importy c.i.f.
b. Preliminary yestimates.
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/10/31: CIA-RDP85T00875R001600030103-4
 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/10/31: CIA-RDP85T00875R001600030103-4
Table 3
Communist China's Exports
to the Industrial west a/
Million US $
1967
1968
1969 b/
Total 635
620
695
Foodstuffs 140
135
115
Of which:
Animals, meat, and fish 50
30
60
Grain 45
30
25
Fruit and vegetables 40
40
40
Crude materials, fua1s,
and edible oils Z65
280
340
Of which:
oilseeds 85
80
75
Textile fibers 85
75
110
C-ruCe animal materials 55
60
80
Checaica.ls
40
35
40
M.anutactu:es
155
170
185
Textile yarn &:,.d
fabric 65
75
95
C othinq
15
20
30
Iron and steel
10
tiegl.
'tegl.
Nonferrous metals
20
20
25
Other
35
0
10
,s. ?4t4 air+ roup.,1
.o th:t nearest S nrrr ion. Because of
roue, nj, oon7ononta
nt~ no! a--fd to the totals
7i .i~~~1~t!tare 4rip On. ~r+w*~''-i yr ~$tir 0:atistic: C1; dare ad-
iv
6~'. r'o M? i !"i.r ~S+A* - ma
v it
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/10/31: CIA-RDP85T00875R001600030103-4