RECENT TRENDS IN SOVIET SATELLITE COMMUNICATIONS

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CIA-RDP85T00875R001600030124-1
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October 28, 2011
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124
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September 1, 1970
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Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/10/31: CIA-RDP85T00875R001600030124-1 -Seeret-~ DIRECTORATE OF INTELLIGENCE Intelligence Memorandum Recent Trends In Soviet Satellite Communications -Seeret- ER IM 70-124 September 1970 Copy No. 6 0 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/10/31 : CIA-RDP85T00875R001600030124-1 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/10/31: CIA-RDP85T00875R001600030124-1 WARNING This document contains information affecting the national defense of the United States, within the meaning of Title 18, sections 793 and 794, of the US Code, as amended. Its transmission or revelation of its contents to or re- ceipt by an unauthorized person is prohibited by law. GROUP I E,dudud from avlomada downgrading and &J."l0cmlon ^ Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/10/31: CIA-RDP85T00875R001600030124-1 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/10/31: CIA-RDP85T00875R001600030124-1 SECRET CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY Directorate of Intelligence September 1970 INTELLIGENCE MEMORANDUM Recent Trends In Soviet Satellite Communications Introduction Technological change within the Soviet communi- cations satellite (comsat) program has been much slower than that achieved by the Western-based In- telsat consortium. Now in its sixth year, the Soviet comsal: system is still dependent on essen- tially "first-generation" technology for operational space and ground segment hardware. New subsystems -- both satellite and ground stations -- are currently under development, however, which should provide the USSR with a substantially more advanced comsat sys- tem within the next year or two. This memorandum assesses recent developments in Soviet satellite communications and examines trends in system planning. Estimates of the aggregate cost of the Soviet comsat program and its major components are also included. These are the first such estimates within the US intelligence Community. Satellite Developments Molniya-1 1. With the launch of two more Molniya satel- lites in February and June 1970, the USSR has now successfully orbited 14 comsats of the Molniya-1 type since April 1965. The highly elliptical orbit Note: This memorandum was produced solely by CIA. it was prepared by the Office of Economic Research and was coordinated with the Office of Current Intel- ligence, the Office of Strategic Research, the Office of Scientific Intelligence, and the Foreign Missile and Space Analysis Center. SEC LE'T Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/10/31: CIA-RDP85T00875R001600030124-1 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/10/31: CIA-RDP85T00875R001600030124-1 ^ SECRET ' ' of the Molniyas causes them to pass repeatedly through the Van Allen radiation belts. The degene- rative effects of this radiation and poor quality control of the satellites' components have probably been the primary causes of the relatively short use- ful lifetimes exhibited by the satellites thus far. Of the 14 Molniyas orbited, probably only the four or five most recently launched are still active. These satellites are capable of relaying 60 two-way telephone conversations, but thus far the system's primary emphasis has been on the relay of television from Moscow to a network of ground stations dispersed throughout the USSR. 2. A primary consideration in the Soviet choice of a highly elliptical orbit (rather than an equa- torial synchronous orbit) for the Molniya system was that it provides excellent coverage of the northern latitudes. This choice has resulted, how- ever, in a number of disadvantages. In addition to the short operating lifetime of the satellites, the elliptical system requires a minimun, of two satel- lites in orbit at the same time to provide continuous 24-hour coverage of the USSR. In order to optimize system coverage and reliability, the USSR uses three or four satellites operating in tandem. The com- bination of short operating lifetimes and large numbers of satellites required for reliable opera- tion greatly increases the cost to the USSR of maintaining the Molniya-1 system. Molniya-2 and Statsionar 3. The USSR is planning to launch two new types of communications satellites -- a second-generation Molniya to be known as Molniya-2 and a geo-stationary satellite called Statsionar.. Although their orbits will differ widely, both :,..,ailites will have similar technical characteristics., Molniya-2 will be posi- tioned in the same highly elliptical orbit as the Molniya-1 series, while Statsion,ar is scheduled to be placed in synchronous equatorial orbit over the Indian Ocean. 4. Information filed by the USSR with the In- ternational Frequency Registration Board (IFRB) of the International Telecommunication Union (ITU) indicates that these second-generation satellites will operate in the internationally recommended frequency range of 4-6 gigahextz (GHz) rather than I SECRET Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/10/31: CIA-RDP85T00875R001600030124-1 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/10/31: CIA-RDP85T00875R001600030124-1 SECRET the 800-1,000 megahertz (MHz) range used at present for Molniya-1 operations. The additional bandwidth provided by the frequency shift will greatly increase the potential channel capacity of the new satellites and will allow the simultaneous relay of both tele- vision and multichannel voice transmissions, which is not possible with the Molniya-1 satellites. The additional bandwidth also fits well with Soviet plans to develop an operational multiple-access capability (whereby many ground stations can work with a satellite at the same time), a highly desir- able feature for a satellite communications system if it is to operate in conjunction w!,th land-based telecommunications systems. 5. Successful development and deployment of the Statsionar satellites would serve at least two important objectives. First, Statsionar should have a much longer useful lifetime than the present Mci- niya series, an advantage that satellites in syn- chronous orbits have exhibited over those in highly elliptical orbits. This extended lifetime would reduce the long-run costs to the USSR of operating a satellite communications system. Secondly, the USSR almost certainly does not want synchronous satellite technology to remain the exclusive province of the West. in order for the USSR and mo:3t of the Third World countries to be mutually "visible" via satellite, an equatorial synchronous orbit is neces- sary. 6. Soviet authorities have filed with the IFRB a probable launch date of December 1970 for Stat- sionar. However, owing to serious problems encoun- tered with the only Soviet booster (the SL-12) cap- able of placing Statsionar into equatorial synchro- nous orbit, there is considerable doubt now that this target date can he met. Placing the Molniya-2 into elliptical orbit should n(t confront the USSR with any serious problems, but Moscow has supplied no information on the initial launch date for this satellite. Ground Station Developments Domestic 7. The USSR has developed the world's first and only domestic satellite television distribution system. The impetus for development of this system SECRET Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/10/31: CIA-RDP85T00875R001600030124-1 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/10/31: CIA-RDP85T00875R001600030124-1 SECRET derives from the importance attached by the Soviet leadership to the expansion of television as a centrally controlled propaganda medium.* Coinci- dent with the fiftieth anniversary of the Bolshevik Revolution in 1967, the USSR put into operation a network of special-purpose satellite ground stations (known as "Orbital' stations). Currently, these stations are capable only of receiving one channel of television; they can neither transmit television nor handle telephone and telegraph traffic. In addition to the Orbita stations, there are ground stations at Moscow and Vladivostok (known as Mol niya stations) which can both transmit and receive and are used for relaying telephone and telegraph traffic as well as television between the two cities. 8. The Orbita network in the USSR has grown from 20 stations at the end of 1967 to 29 by mid- 1970, with 8 more currently under construction and two more in the active planning stage (see Table I). A senior official of the Soviet Ministry of Communi cations has stated that the network will continue to expand at the rate of 6 to 8 new stations per year. The USSR has not provided any forecast of the ultimate size of the Orbita network, but a total of at least 50 stations seems more than likely. 9. Many c,f the Orbita stations are located east of the Urals in sparsely populated, areas where there are few land-based communications lines capable of carrying television signals. In the selection of these areas for constructions of Orbita stations the importance of television for propaganda may well have been subordinate to the government's desire to help make life in remote areas less unat- tractive. 10. The physical expansion of the Orbita network has been accompanied by the steady growth of Orbita programming. In 1968 the Orbita network relayed about 4:i hours per week of live Moscow telecasts. This figure rose to 50 hours per week in 1969 and is increasing again in 1970 by a further 25%. In addition, a number of the Orbita stations are being technically modified so that they can receive tele- vision programs from Moscow in color. At four of 4 - SECRET Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/10/31: CIA-RDP85T00875R001600030124-1 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/10/31: CIA-RDP85T00875R001600030124-1 Soviet Ground Stations a/ Molniya Stations -- Operational Moscow (Molniya-2 and Stat- sionar) Vladivostok Orbits Stations -- Operational Abakan Alma Ata Archangelsk (Molniya-2) Ashkhabad (Statsionar) Blagoveshchensk Bratsk Chita (Statsionar) Dzhezkazgan Frunze (Statsionar) Guryev Irkutsk (Statsionar) Kemerovo (Statsionar) Khabarovsk (Statsionar) Komsomolsk (Molniya-2 and Statsionar) Krasnoyarsk Kyzyl Magadan (Molniya-2) Orbita Stations -- Operational (Continued) Murmansk (Molniya-2) Norilsk Novosibirsk (Molniya-2 and_Statsionar) Okha Petropavlovsk (Molniya-2) Surgut (Molniya-2) Syktyvkar (Molniya-2) Ulan Ude (.1-rcatsionar) Uray Vorkuta Yakutsk (Statsionar) Yuzhno-Sakhalinsk (Statsionar) Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/10/31: CIA-RDP85T00875R001600030124-1 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/10/31: CIA-RDP85T00875R001600030124-1 Soviet Ground Stations a/ (Continued) Orbita Stations -- Under. Construction Orbita Stations -- Planned Anadyr. Batagay Bilibino Tiksi Nikolayevsk-na-Amure Okhotsk. Molniya-2 Stations -- Planned Sovetskaya Gavan Tbilisi Dudinka Ust' Nera Salekhard Zeya- Zayarsk a. Current y operational Soviet ground stations whose locations coincide with those of future Molniya-2 and/or Statsionar ground stations are identified by parenthetical designators. Cn C) h H Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/10/31: CIA-RDP85T00875R001600030124-1 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/10/31: CIA-RDP85T00875R001600030124-1 SECRET the stations -- Alma Ata, Ashkhabad, Frunze, and Ulan Ude -- this switchover to color has been com- pleted. International 11. During the past year or so, the USSR has re- newed and enlarged its commitment to provide satel- lite ground stations to other Communist countries, but there is no evidence of similar arrangements with any non-Communist country. Thus far, the only ground station actually built by the USSR outside its borders is an Orbita facility in the area of Ulan Bator, Mongolia. A period of more than two years elapsed between the agreement to build the station and the initial groundbreaking in April 1969, but once construction began the station was completed in only nine months., 12. A satellite ground station promised to Cuba almost five years ago has yet to materialize. In January 1970, however, this commitment was formalized into a written agreement which, for the first time, spelled out the fact that the Cuban station will have multiservice capabilities -- that is, it will be able to handle telephone and telegraph traffic in addition to television, and will be able to transmit as well as receive. 13. Firm evidence of Soviet intent to sponsor establishment of satellite ground stations in East- ern Europe has become available only in recent months. In March 1970 a Czech-Soviet communique announced. that construction of an Orbita station would bagin, sor,n in Czechoslovakia. This was followed in July \ 3.70 by an announcement indicating that the USSR was going to provide Bulgaria with a multiservice ground station. In neither case is there evidence that construction has been started yet nor have target dates for operational status been announced. Program Costs 14. The figures presented below represent a rough approximation of the cost of the Soviet comsat program. In the absence of direct data on internal Soviet expenditures, the estimates were based on what it would cost (in US dollars) to duplicate the Soviet program in the United States. The methodol- ogy -- outlined in the Appendix -- makes substantial SECRET Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/10/31: CIA-RDP85T00875R001600030124-1 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/10/31: CIA-RDP85T00875R001600030124-1 SECRET use of costing models developed elsewhere, but these have been modified and amplified wherever necessary to make cost components conform as closely as pos- sible to the unique parameters of the Soviet pro- gram. 15. Through mid-1970, total costs of the Soviet Molniya-l program are estimated to have been some- where between $700 million and $750 million. This estimate includes the cost of research and develop- ment, launchers, satellites, failures, ground stations, and yearly operating and maintenance costs. 16. The space segmun~ of the Molniya program has been by far the most expensive element of the system because of the short operating lifetimes of the satellites. Eacii of the 14 Molniyas success- fully orbited since 1965 probably has cost the USSR an estimated $33 million -- $20 million for the booster and $13 million for the satellite. The 14 Molniyas would cost about $460 million excluding the cost of failures. On the basis of a 75% prob- ability of mission success the program probably has experienced about five failures (either booster or satellite), which would raise the total cost of the space segment alone to more .:han $600 million. 17, in comparison, ground station costs have been much lower, it is estimated that the approxi- mately 30 Orbita stations cost between $l million and $1.5 million each depending on the location and the hostility of the terrain. The two multiservice Molniya stations, larger and more complex than the Orbita stations, are estimated to have cost between $2.5 million and $3 million each. (A standard In- telsat ground station, by comparison, costs between $4 million and $6 million.) Total costs of Soviet ground statii.rn deployment probably have totaled somewhere between $40 million and $50 million. 18. Over the next two years or so, the develop- ment of Molniya-2 and Statsionar, continued expan- sion of the ground segment, and maintenance of the system probably will require outlays amounting to another $300 million.to $350 million. It appears highly likely, therefore, that the total cost of the Soviet comsat program will exceed $1 billion by the end of 1972. - 8 SECRET Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/10/31: CIA-RDP85T00875R001600030124-1 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/10/31: CIA-RDP85T00875R001600030124-1 SECRET Trends in System Planning Domestic 19. Soviet comsat system development continues to place primary emphasis on meeting domestic priorities and requirements. As a necessary ad- junct to the new freque-icy plan for the Molniya-2 and Statsionar satellites, the Orbita stations are scheduled to be modified for operation in the 4 to 6 GHz range. in addition, Soviet planning calls for selected (but as yet undesignated) Orbita sta- tions to be equipped for both transmission and reception of multichannel -telephone and telegraph traffic. When fully operational, this network of multiservice ground stations will contribute sub- stantially toward overcoming the serious lack of high capacity cable and microwave radio relay lines in the Soviet regions lying east of the Urals. 20. According to official Soviet information, the Molniya-2 and Statsionar satellites will work with a network of 21 cities in the USSR (see Table 1) Three of the cities -- Moscow, Novosibirsk, and Kom- somoisk -- will have a ground station complement capable of operating with both Molniya-2 and Stat- sionar. Ground stations serving the remaining 18 cities are to be split evenly between the two sys- tems. Since 18 of the 21 designated sites already have ground stations in operation, completion of the 21-city network will require the construction of only three new stations at.Dudinka, Salekhard, and Zayarsk, The 18 existing ground stations will require technical modification in order to operate with the new satellites but this probably can be done with relatively moderate outlays of time and money. Soviet authorities have not indicated what is to be done with the Orbita stations that are not earmarked for operation with the new satellites. It seems likely that these unassigned stations also will operate with Molniya-2 or Statsionar but will be used only for reception of television. International 21. Except for completion of the ground station in Mongolia and the formalizing of promises to build stations in Cuba, Czechoslovakia, and Bulgaria, little has occurred over the last year or so to clarify Soviet intentions in the international com- sat-field. Intersputnik, the Soviet-sponsored in- ternational comsat organization, has remained 9 _ SECRET Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/10/31: CIA-RDP85T00875R001600030124-1 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/10/31: CIA-RDP85T00875R001600030124-1 SECRET essentially a "paper tiger": its membership has never increased beyond the original eight signa- tories -- all Communist countries -- and of late its existence is only infrequently mentioned, evcIn by the USSR Alt';iough seemingly moribund, Inter- sputnik may nevertheless be serving Soviet purposes. As signatories to Intersputnik, the other Communist countries are probably effectively restrained from seeking membership in Intelsat, the Western-based comsat consortium, and the USSR may also see in Intersputnik a bargaining counter that could prove useful in any future dealings with Intelsat. 22. In looking to the future, Soviet comsat authorities appear to have selected the frequency ranges for Molniya-2 and Statsionar with considerable shrewdness. The radio frequency bandwidth of the new Soviet satellites will overlap by 40% with frequencies used by Intelsat, thus opening up the possibility of technical cooperation between the two systems. However, with the remaining 60% of its bandwidth lying outside of the Intelsat frequency range, the USSR will be free to operate independently. The Soviet choice of frequency bands thus appears designed to give the USSR considerable technical flexibility in deciding how close or remote its future relationship with Intelsat will be. Conclusions 23. The characteristics of the Soviet comsat program contrast sharply with those of the Western- based Intelsat consortium. The Soviet system has been developed primarily to satisfy domestic rather than international priorities and is used mainly for television distribution rather than for the relay of telephone and telegraph communications. Thus far, the Molniya/Or.bita program has required outlays estimated at more than $700 million. Al- though expensive, the program has brought television to remote parts of the USSR at only a fraction of the cost of conventional cable and/or microwave radio relay lines. 24. Ultimately, the Soviet comsat system will be fully integrated into the terrestrial common carrier telecommunications network and will provide multichannel telephone, telegraph, and data services 10 - SECRET Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/10/31: CIA-RDP85T00875R001600030124-1 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/10/31: CIA-RDP85T00875R001600030124-1 SECRET in addition to television relay. The speed with which this is accomplished depends on the success- ful development and operational deployment of the new-generation Molniya-2 and Statsionar satellites. Substantial slippage in Soviet plans for these new satellites is suggested by the long string of fail- ures encountered in tests of the booster to be used to launch Statsionar and also by the decision to orbit two more of the old Molniya-ls in 1970. It appears especially unlikely that the USSR will meet its December 1970 target date for placing the first Statsionar into equatorial synchronous orbit. 25. The USSR has shown little inclination thus far to establish the priorities and to commit the resources necessary to convert Intersputnik into an authentic rival of Intelsat. Soviet authorities may be reluctant to undertake major initiatives in this direction until their new-generation satellites have been successfully tested. Alternatively, Moscow might decide that cooperation with the 75- member Intelsat Consortium would be more advantag- eous to the USSR than attempting to compete by means of Intersputnik. SECRET Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/10/31: CIA-RDP85T00875R001600030124-1 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/10/31: CIA-RDP85T00875R001600030124-1 SECRET APPENDIX Methodology fo': Costing the Soviet Comsat Program Since the USSR has supplied virtually no infor- mation on the cost of its comsat program, an attempt has been made to estimate the cost of a comparable program in the United States. The basic reference material is from Chapters 12 and 13 of TeZacommuni- cation SateZZitea (Iliffe Books Ltd. and Prentice- Hall, 1964), edited by K. W. Gatland. This source was used for computing ground station costs P.nd total system costs. Costs for the space segment of the Soviet comsat prograr, were supplied by the Office of Strategic Research (CJR), CIA. Despite the use of many simplifying assumptions, the resulting esti- mate probably represents a reasonable approximation of the cost of the Soviet comsat program. Ground Segment Costs Orbita Ground Stations Table 13.15 in Gatland was used to develop the basic component costs of an Orbita ground station. The table was modified to take into account the size of the Orbita antenna and the fact that Orbita stations do not have a transmission capability. The estimated cost components for an Orbits station are shown in Table 2. Average cost of an Orbita station is estimated to range between $1 million and $1.5 million. The high side of the range reflects higher construction costs resulting from hostility of terrain and re- moteness of site. The low side of the range reflects probable economies of scale as Orbita stations have moved toward the status of "off-the-shelf" production items. Molniya Ground Stations The cost of a Molniya ground station is also based on Table 13.15, modified to take into account the larger antenna size, number of antennas required, the tran..amission capability, power of the transmitter, and the multichannel communications capability (see Table , 3) . 13 SECRET Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/10/31: CIA-RDP85T00875R001600030124-1 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/10/31: CIA-RDP85T00875R001600030124-1 SECRIT,T Table 2 Initial Orbita Ground Station Costs Thousand US $ Equipment Pedestal, reflector Foundation Data takeoffs Servo circuitry Transportation Transmitters Diplexers Maser Receiver, I.F. amplifier Receiver, monopulse Boresite equipment Acquisition equipment Teletype Multiplex terminal equipment Performance monitor Computer Standby power Echo suppressors Spares Installation, engineering, and labor Real estate improvements 232 20 25 50 23 0 50 5 50 50 50 0 0 50 70 9 30 107 200 250 1, 271 SECRET Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/10/31: CIA-RDP85T00875R001600030124-1 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/10/31: CIA-RDP85T00875R001600030124-1 Initial Molniya Ground Station Costs SECRET Table 3 Thousand US Pedestal, reflector Foundation ,Data takeoffs Servo circuitry Tranapcrtation f'ubtotal Cost (two antennas) Tra1,{emitters : Power amplifier Exciter Cost (two transmitters) 35F+ 30 50 23 100 10 220 486 Diplexera (two @ 20) 40 Masers (two @ 50) 100 Receivers, I.F. amplifiers (two @ 5) 10 Receivers, monopulse (two Q 50) 100 Soresite equipment 50 Acquisition equipment so Teletype 12 Multiplex terminal equipment 86 Performance monitor 50 Computer 70 Standby power 9 Echo suppressors 30 Subtotal 1,799 Spares, 15% 270 Installation, engineering, and labor 200 Real estate improvements 250 Total 2,519 ,11 I SECRET Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/10/31: CIA-RDP85T00875R001600030124-1 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/10/31: CIA-RDP85T00875R001600030124-1 51E,C1t1"T A range of $2.5 to $3.0 million in used an the initial cost of a Molni!.a ground station. allacc E3et)ment The following coat figures have been supplied by 03tt, based on krwwn parameters of the Soviet Holniya-l system and preliminary estimates for the follow-on ayntt3mn. a. Molniya-lt Satellite coat ..............$13 million each Launch and booster costs ..... $20 million each b. Future costs Molniya-2t Satellites cost ..........P22 million each Launch and booster coata.$20 million each Satellite cos t...........$22 million each Launch and booster coatn.S45 million each c. a-tenearch and development costs......... .............S40 million The noAr 4 etnamant cnntn r+ett frnt_d f^r tha USso - s ~ .:.v vv.~ are much higher than comparable costs incurred by Intelsat owing t ri:hari ly to tw-a feaWtt tha at... C,...ti.. eatallitea are much larger. The estimated weight of Molniya-l is 2,000 pounds. In contrast, the weights of the Intelsat satellites have been an followat Intelsat I ... 85 pounds Intelsat 11............190 pounds Intelsat III............ 322 pounds The heavier Soviet payload is mi.ch more oxvannivo In and of itself, as in the much larger booster required to place it into orbit. Program Costa Two different mnthodn were used to compute the coat of the entire program to date. The first method is strictly additive -- merely a suing of all -1b- SECRET Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/10/31: CIA-RDP85T00875R001600030124-1 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/10/31: CIA-RDP85T00875R001600030124-1 estimated cash outlays. the second method uses a formula approach taken from Chapter 12 of Gatland. These methods are presented in Tabiea 4 and 5. oi, the basis of tha calculations in Tables 4 and 5, a range of ;0,700 million to 5750 million appears to be a reasonable approximation of total expenditures for the soviet comsat program to date. rotor > x enditoms Although information on the future Kolniyam2 and 5tatsionar programs is very fray entary, an attempt wan made to estimate future costa of the soviet comsat program. t`ince the additional ground segment costa required to complete the program be- come inafynificant in relation to the total cost of the program, they are not considered here. The assumption 14 Mad+9 that, by the end of 1272, the V5111i will (a) launch one experimental Statatonar satellite and c:he for operational use and (b) that it will also teat one Xolniya-2, and then launch four additional olniya-2a for optimum coverage of the VS-:H. On the basis of cost eatir:ate guyppll t1 by C5k for launches and satel l i tec, the additional expenr#iturea required for 1 olniya-2 and 15tataionar would be about 5250 million. Addinq this to the estimate of 5700 million to 5750 million for outlays al ready Made, brings the total eatir?ated cost of the soviet comsat program to over 51 billion b the and of 1772. I SAC;R ,r Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/10/31: CIA-RDP85T00875R001600030124-1 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/10/31: CIA-RDP85T00875R001600030124-1 SE(RV,14 Table 4 COgt of Molniya-1 Comnat Piorlsam (Additive Mathocl) Million UN 14egearoh and Development 40 Space aeent 14 Molniya-1 aatelliteg 0 13 182 14 launches 0 20 200 5 failures a/ 0 33 165 fubtota 1 Ground aa'iment 29 orbi to gtationg $ 1.25 average 36.25 2 rb4olniya atationg q 2.7S averaje 5.50 Opp-rational and maintenat costa! 1967-64 20 orbital 9 .125 2.5 1964-69 2S orbt tas a .125 3.1 196-20 30 orbit an G .125 3.9 l 11 5.3, fV ~afii1a Stationg .275 x S years 2.7 1.? ILLEGIB Is ECR Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/10/31: CIA-RDP85T00875R001600030124-1 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/10/31: CIA-RDP85T00875R001600030124-1 SJ C~ItJ 'i. Table 5 Coat of Moln:ya-1 Comsat Program (1`ormula Approach) CZ,wC0+Cf,+C0N Where C~, total coat over N yearn incurred in the development, establishment and operation of a satellite communications system C 0 R&D cost Ct initial establishment coat CD operational and maintenance coat per year also C ngCg ? no (C. 4 ns1Cs) pnsl and CD no IC1 + Cb 4 ns1CsI ' kn C sl q where n 9 = number of ground stations no * ntx bar of satellites in operational ayntem nsl " number of satellites per launch p *. probability of launch auccean t *- an satellite life k o annual cost of maintaining ground stations an proportion of oata_bltrah n_nt cost c:g cost of establishing ground station C . _ was t ''. v::& :3 t~ ..: Lit Cl - total Cost of launch axcloding booater and satellite Ch - coat of booster-rocket ayatem let CO * 40 ng 31 for CC and 2S as an average for CO n_1 n~l*1 p+~ .T5 t ? 1.S k ? .10 19 SECRET Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/10/31: CIA-RDP85T00875R001600030124-1 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/10/31: CIA-RDP85T00875R001600030124-1 r SECRET Table S. Coat of Molniya-1 Comsat Program (Formula Approach) (Continued) Cg ? 1.25 for orbits and 2.75 for Molniya t i e at ona C ? 13 CI + Cb ? 20 N w 6 for satellites, 3 for ground stations Substitution of the above values into the equation yield a C of 754 that is, a total estimated for the Soaiet comsat program amounting to $754 mil"coat lion. 20 - SECRET Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/10/31: CIA-RDP85T00875R001600030124-1