EASTERN EUROPE: 1971 GRAIN HARVEST AND IMPORT PROSPECTS

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP85T00875R001700020034-1
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: C
• Document Page Count: 13
• Document Creation Date: December 22, 2016
• Document Release Date: March 2, 2010
• Sequence Number: 34
• Publication Date: September 1, 1971
• Content Type: IM

Sanitized Copy Approved for
Release 2010/03/05 : r'j
CIA-RDP85T00875R0017000
Sanitized Copy Approved for
Release 2010/03/05
CIA-RDP85T00875R0017000
 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/03/05 :CIA-RDP85T00875R001700020034-1
~ ~l ~.~-
~ ~14-~~ ~2. ~~.~rn rI / - lit D
Conf~donti~i
DIRECTORATE OF
INfiELLIGENCE
Intelligence 1VV~emorandum
Eastern Europe: 1971 Grain Harvest And Import Pros,~-ects
Confidential
ER IM 71-180
September 1971
Copy No. ~ ~~
Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/03/05 :CIA-RDP85T00875R001700020034-1
 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/03/05 :CIA-RDP85T00875R001700020034-1
GROUP 1
Gxdud.d from owamaric
downgroding and
dcdmrifcorion
Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/03/05 :CIA-RDP85T00875R001700020034-1
WAIZNINcx
T11is document contains information affecting the national
defense of the United States, within th-e meaning of Title
18, sections 793 and 794, of the US 4.ode, as amended.
Its transmission or revelation of its contents to or re-
ceipt by an unauthorized person is prohibited by law.
 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/03/05 :CIA-RDP85T00875R001700020034-1
CONFIDENTIAL
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
Directorate of Intelligence
September 1971
EASTERN EtJROPE:
1971 GRAIN IiARVEST AND IMPORT PROSPECTS
Introduction
1. By the end of 3uly the harvesting of the important winter grains -
wheat, rye, and barley - in Eastern Europe was more than half finished
in the southern countries and was off to an early start ~n the northern
areas. ~ Statements by officials on harvest prospects range from guarded
optimism ir. the south to concern in the north t~ecause hot, dry weather
could cause losses from premature xipening of grains. By mid-August, a
five-week dry period was adversely affecting prospective yields of fall
harvested crops and pastures in most count ~ ies.
2. This memorandum provides a pre-harvest estimate of graiiY
production for 1971 based upo:i information available though mid-August,
it provides a brief qualitative evaluation of prospects for other crops, and
it assesses tli:. impact that the estimated harvests of grain and other crops
may have on the region's demand for imported grain during the current
fiscal year (FY) 1972.
Conclusions
3. Eastern E!.~rope's total grain output, rebounding from the setback
of 1970, may post a sharp gain of 12% in 1971, approaching the record
1969 harvest. Production of bread grains is expected to register a larger
increase (19%) over 1970 than production of feed grains (6%). Grain harvests
in every country except East Germany almost certainly will exceed the
1. The terns Eastern Europe and East European countries include the
northern cou~ztries of Cscjcltoslovakia, East Germa~ty, and Poland and the
svuthern countries of Bulgaria, Hungary, and Romania.
Note: This memorandum was prepared by the Office of Economic
Research.
CONFIDENTIAL
Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/03/05 :CIA-RDP85T00875R001700020034-1
 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/03/05 :CIA-RDP85T00875R001700020034-1
CONFIDENTIAL
1966-70 annual average level. Favorable prospects for grain have been partly
offset by unfavorable prospects fcr most other crops yet to be harvested
in the northern countries and iiungary. As of mid-August, alive-week
drought had already caused some irreparable damage to non-grain crops.
Further darnage wall result if the drought is not broken, and the estimates
in this memorandum would have to be lowered accordingly.
4. Grain imports by Eastern Europe in FY 1972 may fall as much
as 1.5 million metric tons below FY 1971, largely because Romania will.
not need to repeat the emergency imports caused by the severe spring floods
of 1970. Anticipated imports by Eastern Europe will still exceed the average
levels of the late 1960s. Good bread grain harvests in the northern countries
will lessen the need for imports of milling-duality wheat, whereas a shortfall
in fodder supplies in the northern countries will strengthen demand for
feed grains. Imports of Free World grain by the northern countries are
unlikely to change much from last year's level of 2 million tons, provided
that the USSR -expecting another good harvest -agrees to provide as
much grain as in FY l 971, or an estimated 5.5 million tons. Western sales
of grain to the southern countries are unlikely unless Hungary's
drought-stricken cori~ crop is even smaller than currently forecast.
Romania - an importer of nearly 1 million tons of US grain last year -
and Bulgaria will be net exporters of grain. But their exports are likely
to be smaller than those follawing other good harvests, because they need
additional quantities of concentrated feeds to support their expanding
livestock herds. Also, like all t)ie other countries, they will probably
maintain the 1970 import level of protein supplements, such as oilseed cakes
and meals, needed to upgrade industrial feed mixes.
5. The southern countries should improve their export earnings from
agricultural products during the coming year. In Romania and Hungary,
increased exports of non-grain crops should more than offset the effects
of lower world prices for grain. Hungary not only will be able to curtail
expenditures for imports of pork but reportedly will have a sizable surplus
for export this winter. As for Czechoslovakia and Poland, the combination
of lower grain impor? prices and a nossible cutback .in meat imports favors
some improvement in their balance-of-payments position vis-a-vis Western
Europe over the next 12 months. But East Germany, the region's largest
importer of agricultural products, may have to increase imports for the
third successive year.
Discussion
Weather Developments
6. Eastern Europe achieved a large increase in grain yields and output
in 1965-69 by tl.e use of more fertilizer, new higher yielding grain ya.;~cies,
- 2 -
CONFIDENTIAL
Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/03/05 :CIA-RDP85T00875R001700020034-1
 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/03/05 :CIA-RDP85T00875R001700020034-1
CONFIDENTIAL
and machinery. For 1970 and 1971, however, the effect of weather on
crop production has become more important, as industrial inputs into
agriculture increased at a lower rate. In 1970, unfavorable weather
conditions spanning the crop year sharply reduced both the harvested area
and yields of grain in most countries. Conversely, the 1971 grain crop,
especially winter grains, was favored through early July with relatively good
planting and growing conditions. As a result, the harvested area avid yields
for the region should be well above the reduced leve?;s of 1970.
7. Growing conditions for crops othet? than winter grains rapidly
deteriorated after June. Hot, dry weather set in which had not been broken
by 20 August in the northern countries and Hungary. East German
meteorologists described this July as "among the driest of the century."
F, rmers throughout the northern region were exhorted to water cultivated
crops, and East Germany imported additional sprinkler irrigation systems.
On 31 July, soil moisture levels were already below normal in all the
northern countries and Hungary (see Table 1). By mid-August farmers'
complaints about shortages of watet? were mounting, and harvest machinery
'was breaking down because of the drought and heat. 2/ The press carried
stories of burnt pastures and the wilting of late planted spring crops on
lighter soils. During this same period, Bulgarian and Romanian crops
benefited from normal to above-normal rainfall.
2. Poorly mai~ttained tractors artd harvest ~nachiitery were kept in
conti~tuous operation larger than usual because of the steed to lrarnest the
ripe grain as soon as possible.
- 3 -
CONFIDENTIAL
Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/03/05 :CIA-RDP85T00875R001700020034-1
 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/03/05 :CIA-RDP85T00875R001700020034-1
COI~TFIDENTIAL
Winter Grain
S. In the fall of 1970, for the t;iird successive year, winter grains -
wheat, rye, and barley -were seeded later than usual on an area about
the same size as in 1969. In the north, the delay was attributable to the
late harvesting of root crops and untimely rains; in the south, to the late
harvesting of corn and lack of soil moisture. Nevertheless most winter grain
seedlings were well developed at the onset of winter because of good
November rains and a mild December. In sharp contrast to the previous
winter, the 1970/71 wirttc~ was unusually mild and plant losses due to
winter-kill were below normal. The development of grain plantings was also
favored by an ear:y sprieig and warm weather in April. Since then a variety
of bad weather -- May drought, hail, heavy June winds and rain, and July
drought - leas complicated yield prospects. On balance, ho~.vever, wheat
and ;ye yields probably ar?e still above average for the region as a whole.
The dry, hot weather in July and early August was most beneficial in the
southern countries; wheat harvesting was then in full swing and harvesting
losses were held to a minimum. This weather also resulted in the best
milling-quality wheat in years.
9. In the northern countries, especially East Germany and Poland,
where winter gra~us are not usually harvested until mid-August, drought
and heat premat~.arely ripened some fields of gain on light soils and caused
spring grains to ripen simultaneously with winter grains. This development
has played a severe strain on machinery and farmers alike, with higher losses
to be expected from untimely harvesting. There also have been complaints
of uneven ripening of winter grain fields in East Germany, further
complicating harvesting operations.
Spring Grain
10. An early dry spring permitted spring planting to be carried out
on schedule, about one month earlier than in 1970. As a result the area
sown io spring grains -mostly barley in the north and corn in the south --
was expanded according to plan. L~ the northern countries and Hungary,
the lack of soil moisture delayed germination of late seedings and retarded
the .development of some earlier plantings. Northern regions of East
Germany and Poland were hardest i~it by drought, which resulted ir, some
reseeding and in uneven development of spring grains on lighter soils. Good
rains in late May and June improved yield prospects by providing much
needed moisture. By mid-August, however, yield prospects had again
deteriorated because of a summer drought. This condition, accompanied
by high temperatures in late July and early August, has reportedly caused
premature and uneven ripening of barley and oats in East Germany; the
same thing probably has happened in central and eastern Poland. In addition,
Poland re,p :ed that overripe grain was shattering .While yields may still
CONFIDENTIAL
Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/03/05 :CIA-RDP85T00875R001700020034-1
 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/03/05 :CIA-RDP85T00875R001700020034-1
CONFIDENTIAL
exceed the depressed level of last year, they will be no better than ave,;:ae,
assuming that normal harvesting conditions prevail.
11. In the southern countries, growing conditions have been more
favorable for spring grains than in the north, except for corn in Hungary.
Results of early harvesting under optimum conditions indicate that yields
of barley and oats are much better than a year ago; Hungary and Romania
may equal previous highs. For the more important corn crop, however,
yield prospects in Hungary have been depressed by a shortage of rain this
summer. Moisture levels as of 31 July were nearly one-third below normal.
On 15 August the Hungarian Minister of Agriculture and Food admitted
that the long dry spell was having unfavorable effects on all row orol+s,
including corn. Yield prospects are currently estimated to be no better than
average and will deteriorate sharply if the drought continues through August.
The corn harvest still could exceed the low output of 1970 because the
area planted was I1% greater than last year, or the largest in a decade.
Corn prospects are considerably better for Bulgaria and Romania, where
good soil ma~isture combined with higher input of fertil'~zer should boost
yields above the 1966-70 average. In addition, the area planted to corn
is up over 1970 in both countries to the highest level in several years.
1971 Grain Productior. Rebounds
12. Total grain production in Eastern Europe in 1971 should rebound
by 12% from the poor results of 1970, to about 61 million tons or nearly
as high as the record output of 1969 (see Tabe 2). Average grain yields
for the region probably will approximate those of 1969; total Itarves'ed
area will fall somewhat below. Every country, with tl~e exception of East
Germany, is expecting an above-average total grain harvest. Good harvests
of bread grains were achieved in every country; estimated output should
flit a new high of 31.6 million tons. The forecast of total feed grain
production for the region will have to be trimmed if drought conditions
persist. If dry weather continues, yields will be further reduced for late
planted spring grains in the north and for corn in Hungary. T;~e dry weather,
however, did permit harvesting of small grain io start earlier and under
better conditions than a year ago.
13. Grain output in the southern region, which declined the most
last year, is expected to show an 18% increase this year, compared with
an estimated 8% for the northern region. Romania, hit by floods last year,
may harvest the second largest grain crop on record, more than 30% above
the 1970 harvest. In the northern countries, estimated increases range from
5% in Czechoslovakia to 9% in Poland, the largest grain producer in Eastern
Europe. Although the East German harvest may exceed 1970's, it still will
be below the 1966-70 annual average output.
- 5 -
CONFIDEN'I'IAL
Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/03/05 :CIA-RDP85T00875R001700020034-1
 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/03/05: CIA-RDP85T00875R001700020034-1
CONFIDEN~IAI,
Table 2
Eastern Europe:
Production of Bread. Grain a/
and Total Grain
a. Wheat. and rye.
b. Wheat, rye, barley, oats, corn, and mixtures (East Cerman~ and
Poland.
e. Annual average production.-
d. Preliminary forecast, as of mid-August 1971.
Million Me~ric Tons
1971
Country and
as a Percent
Commodity
1966-70 ,
1969
1970
1971 ~
of 1970
Northern region
Czechoslovakia
Bread grain
355
3.94
3.65
3.B0
104
Total grain
?'
6.98
?.91
7.26
7.62
105
ast Germany
L
Bread grain
3.72
3.53
3.62
3.84
106
Total grain
P
l
nd
6.89
6.92
6.46
6.85
106
a
o
Bread grain
11.73
12.88
10.09
11.90
118
Total grain
Subtotal
16.95
18.57
10.30
17.81
109
Bread grain
19.00
20.35
17.36
19.54
113
Total grain
30.82
33.90
30.0$
32.28
108
Southern region
Bulgaria
Bread grain
2.94
2.60
3.01
2.92
97
Total grain
Hungary
6.20
6.00
6.68
6.54
98
Bread grain
3.22
3.82
2.87
3.72
130
Total grain
Romania
A.12
9.56
7.50
8.67
116
Bread grain
4.75
4.40
3.39
5.39
159
Total grain
Subtotal
12.63
12.75
10.43
13.73
132
Bread gain
10.91
10.82
9.27
12.03
130
Total grain
26.5
28.31
2~
28.94
118
East European total
Bread grain
29.91.
31.17
26.63
31.57
119
Total grain
57. 7i
61.71
54.63
61.22
112
Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/03/05: CIA-RDP85T00875R001700020034-1
 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/03/05 :CIA-RDP85T00875R001700020034-1
CONFIDENTIAL
Bread Grain
14. Good harvests of bread grains in each country should add up
to a sharp rise for the region as a whole in 1971. Each of the southern
countries had bumper harvests of high quality wheat. Hungary and 1?omania
registered gains of 30% and 59%, respectively. Both countries broke per
hectare yield records for wheat. Although Bulgaria's wheat harvest fell
slightly short of last year's record, it reportedly met plan expectations and
was of excellent quality. The southern countries had largely completed the
wheat harvest by 15 August, >;ut none had released any preliminary,
Estimates of total output.
15. For the northern region, a smaller increase of 13% is forecast
for bread grain output. Output should exceed she 1966-70 annual average
but not the 1969 level. The Polish harvest is up 18101argely on the strength
of a bumper wheat crop. While output of rye exceeds the 1970 total, it
will remain below average because over the years the area planted to rye
has been shifted to wheat. Moreover, p: ospective yields of rye, normally
grown in light soils, have suffered more from dr;~ weather than winter wheat
in East Germany and Poland. Czechoslovakia, which had a good harvest
last year, will show the least increase in the bread grain harvest, most of
it attributable tc; a better harvest of .rye on a larger acreage. Czechoslovak
wheat production is estimated to be about the same as last year's good
harvest, bat of better quality.
Feed Grains
16. Total output of feed grains -barley, oats, and corn - is estimated
to be up 6?l0 over last year's mediocre harvest, or nearly equal to the record
level of 1969. The results were influenced more by an increase in area
than by higher yields. Larger areas seeded to corn and barley more than
offset a 5% decline in the area seeded to oats. Barley output should set
a new high on the strength of a record sown area. Yields of spring barley
and oats are only slightly better than in 1970 because of unfavorable
weather in the large producing northern countries of East Germany and
:'oland last spring. Also, brewing barley in Czechoslovakia was damaged
by heavy rains in June. Production of corn -about half the total grain
production in the southern countries -- is projected 10?lo higher than last
year's mediocre level; Bulgarian and Romanian prospects are better than
those of Hungary.
1,7. Some lowering of current estimates of Eastern Europe's total feed
grain output. may be necessary when the full extent of damage from the
current summer drought to spring .barley and oats in the northern countries
and to .coat in Czechoslovakia and Hungary become known. Bulgarian and
CONFIDENTIAL
Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/03/05 :CIA-RDP85T00875R001700020034-1
 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/03/05 :CIA-RDP85T00875R001700020034-1
CONFIDEN'TIA1L
Romanian corn crops, with normal to above-no: mal soil moisture reserves
as of 1 August, leave been less affected by the August dry weather.
Nevertheless, normal rainfall du-?ing the balance of the growing season wii,l
be needed to forestall a drop in current yield prospects throughout tl:e
souther-- region.
Non-Grain Crop Prospects i-eteiioratc
18. The a~-tlook for forage end root crops, important as feed for
animals, is net so good as for grain. East European outpui of important
crops, such as potatoes, sugar beets, late vegetables, and hay, will fall below
the 1970 level as well as the 1966-70 average level. Yields in the large
producing northern1 countries, particularly East Germany and Poland, will
be average to below-average because of the lack of rain since early July.
The reported increase in areas planted to these crops was too small to offset
projected lower yields. Yields of potato a-ld forage crops may be off as
much as 20Io to 30% because of their critical need for good soil moisture
in August. Heavy infestation of beetles and disease may also lower potato
yields. Growth of pastures and meadows also has been retarded by poor
soil moisture conditions from Hungary north. The prospective fodder supply
has been further reduced in East Gerrr~any and Poland because less acreage
than usual was seeded to catch crops this summer as a result of dry s~.il.
Tltus these two countries in particular face the prospect of acute shortages
of roughage for feeding livestock in the upcoming winter. So far, crops
in Romania and to a lesser extent Bulgaria have escaped the recent dry
spell affecting t}ie other four countries. As of 10 August, soil moisture
reserves were above-average in Romania and only 13% below in Bulgaria.
19. The only major non-grain crop for which a good harvest is forecast
in every East European country is oilseed. Rapeseed harvests, just completed
in the northern countries, arc reported up in each country; a record in
Czechoslovakia. In the southern countries, the output of sunflower seed
should equal or exceed last year's good harvest. A 22?!o increase in ';lie
area seeded. could provide Hungary with a record sunflower seed crop despite
drought-reduced yields. Increases in soybean acreage in Bulgaria and
Romania also could result in a record output of this oiiseed, given normal
weather during the balance of the growing season.
Implications for Grain Imports
20. Eastern Europe's gross imports of grain in FY 1972 will drop
an estimated 1610, or by about 1.5 million tons below last year's record
9.1 million tons. Even though the grain harvest is larger than in 1970, total
import requirements far the region will decline less than that forecast earlier
- 8 -
CONFIDEN'TIAL
Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/03/05 :CIA-RDP85T00875R001700020034-1
 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/03/05 :CIA-RDP85T00875R001700020034-1
CONFIDENTIAL
this year 3/ because of the recent deterioration in harvest prospects for
potatoes and green iodder in the grain-deficit northern countries. Romania
is the only country where imports are expected to fall sharply; from nearly
1.2 million tons last year - 75% from the United States - to less than
200,000 tons. Romania's imports in FAY 1971 were unusually large because
of the severe floods in the spring of 1970. Bulgaria and Hungary again
will be insignificant importers. Compared with 1970, however, the larger
amount and excellent quality of this year's wheat harvest will dampen the
region's dernand for what and possibly raise the sharp of feed grains
(including fodder wheat) in total imports from about one-third in FY 1971
to about one-half.
21. In the northern countries, particularly East Germany and Poland,
import requirements for feed grains have increased because of larger holdings
of hogs and poultry and a shortfall i~t output of potatoes (an important
hog feed) and green fodder. The increases i~t grain production for 1971
will not fully offset shortfalls in non-grain fodder output. The major thrust
of current agricultural plans in these countries is to improve meat supplies
from domestic production rather than from imports, wi-.ich were necessary
in FY 1971. Accordingly, the governments will be reluctant to sacrifice
recent gains in meat animals by not importing the necessary grain and high
protein supplements, such as oilseed cakes and mews.
22. The southern countries will be more interested in importing high
protein supplements than grain. Bulgaria and Romania probably will be net
grain exporters this year. Hungarian officials have indicated that because
of record hog numbers a tight fodder situation exists, and imports of
concentrated fodder will be autlioriz?d. No quantities were given nor is
it clear that feed grain, as well as oilseed cakes and meals, will be imported.
However, should adrought-induced shortfall in the corn harvest materialize,
feed grain imports definitely would be needed. Also, despite a bumper wheat
harvest, Hungary's need to replenish state reserves probably will reduce the
amount of wheat made available to feed livestock.
23. As yet, there is no indication of how much grain Eastern Europe
plans to purchase in Free World markets over the next 12 months. It may
be no more than 2 million tons, or 4010 less than last year. The amount
demanded will depend upon the willingness of the USSR to maintain or
increase exports to the northern countries at the high level of FY 1971 -
an estimated 5.5 million tons. In FY 1971, both East Germany and Poland
imported Soviet grain in excess of their long-team annual trade agreements.
For example, Poland acquired 1 million tons of grain on credit during the
CONFIDENTIAL,
Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/03/05 :CIA-RDP85T00875R001700020034-1
 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/03/05 :CIA-RDP85T00875R001700020034-1
CONFIDFNTIAIJ
first half of 197; in addition to a standing trade agreement for 1 n;:llion.
I~f current forecasts of another good Soviet grain harvest ho:3, the USSR
should be able to maintain last year's level of export, especially wheat,
to Eastern Europe. Nevertheless, the extraordinary internal demands for
grain for feeding livestock under the Soviet campaign to boost meat
production cast a shadow over prospective Soviet exports to Eastern Europe.
Since the USSR-East European annual trade agreements are not signed
before October, it may be several months before Eastern Europe's total
demand for Western grain is fully known. On balance,. it appears that the
demand for Free World wheat will weaken and- the demand for Dorn and
barley will remain strong. Lower prices for grain on the world market will
permit the northern countries to import as much grain as a year ago with
less of a drain on foreign eXchange reserves. US grain may be more attractive
to East European buyers with the recent devaluation of the dollar relative
to other hard currencies.
CONFIDENTIAL
Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/03/05 :CIA-RDP85T00875R001700020034-1