INTELLIGENCE MEMORANDUM CUBA: EXPANDING INTERNATIONAL CIVIL AIR SERVICE

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP85T00875R001700020067-5
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 14
• Document Creation Date: December 22, 2016
• Document Release Date: March 2, 2010
• Sequence Number: 67
• Publication Date: November 1, 1971
• Content Type: IM

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r-/11LT.
Secret
C' I A ~o EiZ. 7
DIRECTORATE OF
INTELLIGENCE
Intelligence Memorandum
Cuba: Expanding International Civil Air Set-vice
Secret
ER IM 71-214
November 1971
Copy No.
54
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WARNING
This document contains information affecting the national
defense of the United States, within the meaning of Title
18, sections 793 and 794, of the US Code, as amended.
Its transmission or revelation of its contents to or re-
ceipt by an unauthorized person is prohibited by law.
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CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
Directorate of Intelligence
November 1971
INTELLIGENCE MEMORANDUM
CUBA:
EXPANDING INTERNATIONAL CIVIL AIR SERVICE
Introduction
1. Until LAN-Chile began monthly service to Havana last summer,
Cuba was served by only four scheduled airlines - the Soviet state airline
(Aeroflot), the Czechoslovak state airline (CSA), the Cuban national airline
(Cubana), and the Spanish airline (Iberia). The pattern of service - currently
12 flights a week linking Cuba with the USSR, Czechoslovakia, and seven
non-Communist countries -- is basically unchanged since 1963, when the
last of l l foreign airlines serving pre-Castro Cuba was withdrawn. During
the past three years, however, there has been some expansion of service
and an improvement in its quality. This memorandum examines the changes
since 1968, the volume of traffic in 1970, and the prospects for further
change.
Discussion
Passenger Volume, 1970
2. Sixty-five thousand passengers traveled to and from Cuba on
scheduled air service in 1970. This is less than half the passengers handled
annually by some small US airports. Even so, the 1970 volume was about
10% above a year earlier and 35% more than the average annual volume
during 1965-68. Almost 35,000 passengers carried in 1970 moved between
Cuba and the non-Communist world (25,000 between Havana and Madrid
and 10,000 between Havana and Mexico City), and 30,000 passengers
traveled between Cuba and the USSR/Eastern Europe (see Table 1).
Aeroflot's Expanded Service
3. During the last three years, Aeroflot increased the frequency of
its Moscow-Havana flights, changed routing, and introduced the long-range
Note: This memorandum was prepared by the Office of Economic Research
and coordinated within the Directorate of Intelligence and with the
Department of State.
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IL-62 jet. As a result the number of seats on this service in 1970 had
increased by over 60% since 1968, although the estimated number of
passengers carried had risen only about 20%.
4. The route change from the long over-water flight to Havana via
Murmansk to a more direct one via Algiers and Rabat reduced the longest
non-stop leg of this flight from 5,000 to 4,000 miles and made possible
the introduction of an IL-62 configured to carry 122 passengers. As shown
in the tabulation below, this raised the number of passenger seats available
in 1969 by 6,000 with virtually no increase in flights, and by another 7,000
seats in 1970 by virtue of a third weekly flight during the summer months.
Tear
Round
Trip
Flights
Passenger
Seats
Available
Total
Passengers
Carried a/
1963
88
11,440
7,531
1964
102
13,260
9,890
1965
120
15,600
10,644
19.66
148
19,240.
13,549
1967
153
19,890
13,900
1968
125
21,780
15,250
1969
127
27,964
16,778
1970
143
34,892
10,214
a. The figures for total passengers earriecU
from 1963 through 1966 are firm. The years
1967 through 1970, however, are CIA estimates.
5. The 18,000 passengers carried by Aeroflot in 1970 marked the
highest traffic since Aeroflot began its Moscow-Havana service in 1963. On
flights originating in Moscow, an estimated 80% of the passengers were
Soviet nationals, 15% Cuban nationals, and 5% nationals of other countries.
On Aeroflot flights out of Cuba, Soviet nationals generally accounted for
only about 65% of the total. While few Aeroflot flights have carried military
personnel exclusively, in most instances small numbers of Soviet armed
forces personnel, usually in mufti, were carried on regular civilian flights.
CSA's Renewal of Havana Service
6. CSA resumed its Prague-Havana flights in November 1969
following a suspension of almost a year. The suspension was attributed to
a decline in the number of Czechs in Cuba following the Soviet invasion
of Czechoslovakia. The renewed service began on a monthly basis with a
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Soviet IL-62 and required only one stop en route - a technical one* at
Gander, Newfoundland. This service enabled the Czechs to gain experience
in flying IL-62s across the Atlantic prior to CSA's inauguration of
Prague-New York flights in May 1970.
7. In nmid-1970 CSA began a twice monthly service with occasional
supplementary flights. The 21 round-trips flown in 1970 curried some 2,200
passengers to Cuba and an estimated 1,300 from Cuba. The average load
factor was 70%, compared with 57% in 1968 when tht Bristol Britannia
was used. About one-half of the passengers in 1970 were Czechs; the
remainder were mostly East Germans and Bulgarians, along with a few West
European and Latin American businessmen. The net inflow from Prague
in 1970 probably reflects renewed Czech economic and technical aid
following a low point in late 1968 and 1969.
8. Apparently encouraged by the high load factors, CSA began a
weekly service in April 1971 and added an intermediate stop at Brussels
(see the map), where the Belgian government had granted CSA passenger
rights. Also, the technical stop at Gander was replaced by one at Montreal.
CSA added a second weekly flight on this route for the summer - 5 June.
to 29 August. CSA may eventually press for passenger rights to and from
Montreal on its Prague-Havana flight.
Cubana's Prague Service
9. Cubana's Havana-Prague flights, in operation since 1963,
experienced a higher load factor in 1970 than CSA, although Cubana carried
fewer passengers. As shown in the accompanying tabulation, however, the
load factors for both airlines exceeded 50% -- sometimes considered the
break-even point for international flights.
Cubana CSA
* A technical stop is made for refueling or other servicing and does not
involve loading or discharging passengers.
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Average Average
Number of Load Number of Load
Route Passengers Factor Passengers Factor
Havana-Prague 81 88
Prague-Havana 75 82
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10. In 1970, Cubana operated 55 round-trip flights and carried 8,600
passengers. This was a sharp decline from the 85 flights and 11,500
passengers carried in 1969, when Cubana benefited from the suspension
of CSA service. Cubana flights to Prague were routed via Gander while
the return flights stopped at both Shannon and Gander. In 1970 an
estimated 70% of the passengers carried were Cubans and 10% to 12% were
Czechs. The remainder were mostly government officials and technical aid
personnel from Eastern Europe and a few Western businessmen. Cubana
ha;: used only Britannias on this route except for a few months in 1967
when the airline experimented with 1L-18s.
Civil Air Service Between Cuba and the Non-Communist World
11. The 35,000 passengers carried in scheduled air service between
Cuba and non-Communist countries in 1970 (see Table 2) was a 17%
increase over 1969 and the highest volume in at least seven years. The
imbalance in traffic flow - about 10,000 passengers arriving in Cuba and
25,000 departing - reflected an exodus of refugees leaving Cuba,
particularly via Madrid.
Havana-Mexico City Flights
12. Cubana flights between Havana and Mexico City, in operation
for almost a decade, were nearly terminated following two hijackings of
Mexican aircraft to Cuba in the summer of 1970. One aircraft was hijacked
by Mexicans and the other by nationals of the Dominican Republic; in
both cases Mexican authorities demanded extradition. Cuba refused,
claiming the right of asylum, and further angered Mexico by presenting
a bill for the hijacked aircraft covering landing fees, fuel, and food at
Havana. Mexico retaliated on 28 July 1970 by abrogating its bilateral air
convention with Cuba. The Cuban government did not respond during a
14-day period provided for in such cases; and a one-year grace period,
authorized in the convention, allowed flights to continue until August 1971.
13. During most of the intervening year neither Mexico nor Cuba
seemed inclined to negotiate a new treaty, and it appeared that CubanA
service to Mexico would expire. About six weeks before the end of the
grace period, however, Mexico apparently decided to improve relations and
sent Marxist Jorge Leonides Tamayo to Cuba for informal discussions on
Mexican-Cuban relations, including the air agreement. Mexico's initiative
spelled a victory for Cuba's wait-and-see attitude and, as more formal
negotiations continued in June and July 1971, the Mexican government
even withdrew its demands that any new agreement provide for extradition
of hijackers.
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14. After many contradictory statements by Mexican officials, Cuba
and Mexico on 2 August 1971 jointly announced the signing of a new
air agreement that increases both the frequency of flights and the size of
aircraft used in the Havana-Mexico City service. As many as four flights
per week would be permitted for either Cubana or a Mexican airline, with
plane capacities of up to 250 passengers, compared with 125 passengers
in the old agreement. This provision is academic at the present time, since
no service by a Mexican airline is anticipated, and no Cubana aircraft can
carry more than 110 passengers. The new agreement is to last three years
and may be renewed for an additional two years.
15. The Havana-Mexico City flights remain the most frequent and
expeditious route to Cuba for most persons traveling from the Western
Hemisphere. Passengers on these flights during 1970 included writers,
correspondents, and members of the "Venceremos Brigades" -- mostly
leftist students from the United States performing agricultural chores in
Cuba. Other travelers were Cuban diplomatic and trade officials catching
connecting flights in Mexico City for West European and Latin Anierican
countries. Moreover, Latin American nationals -- primarily from Nicaragua,
Guatamala, and Uruguay -- have occasionally used this route to fly to Cuba
for training in guerrilla warfare.
Havana-Madrid Flights
16. The Havana-Madrid route continues to provide egress for Cuban
refugees who debark in Spain and scatter throughout Europe. In 1970,
almost 25,000 passengers were carried in both directions on this route,
nearly 40% more than in 1969. The net outflow, mostly refugees, was
12,000, compared with 8,000 in 1969. The additional traffic was made
possible by an increase of Cubana flights from 60 in '1969 to 89 in 1970
and by Iberia's introduction in June 1970 of a stretch DC-8 in its weekly
service, which raised passenger capacity per aircraft from 165 to about 210.
17. Early in 1971, Iberia requested permission to add a second weekly
flight. Initially it appeared that the request was approved, and Iberia began
second weekly flights in February. After three weeks, however, the flight
was dropped, possibly because of continuing difficulties between Havana
and Iberia over money.
The New Havana-Santiago Air Link
18. Cuba and Chile signed a bilateral civil air agreement on
25 February 1971, following the r'storation of diplomatic relations in
November 1970. The agreement provided for reciprocal service between
Havana and Santiago by Cubana Airlines and by Chile's international airline
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LAN-Chile. However, a shortage of suitable aircraft on the part of both
airlines and LAN-Chile's concern about possible low load factors prevented
immediate inauguration of service.
19. After several trial flights, Cubana inaugurated scheduled service
to Santiago on 26 June 1971, using Bristol Britannias on the 3,500-mile
flight-,. The flights operate on alternate Saturdays and return the following
day. The aircraft makes a technical stop in Lima, Peru (2,170 miles from
Havana), apparently under the authorization of an earlier Cuba-Peru air
agreement which was not renounced when the two countries severed
diplomatic relations. Although international aviation guides and Cubana
timetables show Lima as a technical stop, a fcw passengers and a small
amount of cargo have been handled there.
20. The first indication that LAN-Chile would start service was an
article in a Chilean newspaper suggesting the inclusion of Havana as an
intermediate stop on LAN's existing service to Miami and New York. This
trial balloon floated by the Ch:ean government provoked a negative
response in the United States. LAN then began considering stopping at
Havana on one of its flights to Western Europe. However, short on aircraft
and unable to fill existing schedules, LAN found the prospects of a new
route via Havana too burdensome. Finally, on 18-19 July, LAN operated
a flight between Santiago and Havana that was variously billed as an
"inaugural flight" and as "experimental." The initial -light, by a Boeing
707, made a technical stop in Panama City, stopped in Havana, and
continued on to Madrid. Subsequent flights occurred in August and
September. The Cuban government attempted to assuage L"N's concern
over the profitability of the flight by guaranteeing the Chilean airline at
least 40 passengers on the leg from Havana to Madrid. LAN officials recently
claimed, however, that Cuba was not fulfilling this commitment. If the
Chilean airline is not allowed to share in the lucrative flow of refugees
to Madrid - all of whom must pay hard currency for their tickets - LAN
may suspend its flight to Havana.
21. The new Havana-Santiago route gives Cuua two scheduled air links
with Latin America - the other is Mexico City. The use of Cubana on
this route also gives Havana a more secure means of transporting
revolutionaries between Cuba and Latin America. The Mexico City route
is subject to close sureillance by Mexican officials.
Non-Scheduled Air Service
22. Approximately 45,000 passengers were carried out of Cuba in
1970 on the United States refugee airlift from Varadero to Miami. On 31
August 1971, the airlift was suspended by Havana after carrying about
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245,000 refugees (3,000 to 4,000 per month) since its inauguration in
December 1965. At the time of the suspension the Cuban government stated
that the airlift could be resumed after a short interval to permit the
departure of a final group of some 1,000 persons. Subsequently, the United
States forwarded to Cuba additional names of persons now approved for
entry into the United States whose names had been previously submitted
by Cuban authorities on one of the Cuban-originated lists. Some of this
group are now exiting on the airlift which was temporarily resumed on
27 September. If, despite US appeals, the airlift is terminated as Cuba has
indicated, many who registered for it will be left behind. There are still
some 30,000 names on the list of those who enrolled to leave before Castro
closed the list in 1966. This number is probably somewhat inflated since
many have died, changed their minds, or left by other means. Cuba has
also indicated that another 94,000 Cubans who have been sponsored for
entry to the United States by relatives already here will not be authorized
for exit, except for a few "humanitarian" cases.
23. In addition to the US airlift, other Western carriers operated
non-scheduled air service to Cuba in 1970, including:
a. Mexicana de Aviacion operated 18 flights between
Havana and Mexico City in 1970 carrying mail, cargo, and a
few passengers.
b. Bahamas Airways, Ltd., made 49 flights carrying
about 500 passengers between Nassau and Havana in 1970
before going bankrupt in mid-October 1970. The passengers
were mostly Cuban government officials, as well as foreign
embassy personnel and trade delegations in Havana seeking
connections from Nassau to Western Europe.
c. Air Canada operated 15 flights in 1970 and seven
during January-April 1971 to carry swine to Cuba. This was
a part of the continuing effort by the Cuban government to
improve the quality of livestock on the island.
d. Air Caicos, Ltd., began service between Nassau and
Havana on 17 November 1970, about a month after the demise
of Bahamas Airways' service, and made five round-trip flights
during the remainder of the year. During 1971, flights have
generally been operated on a weekly basis.
The management, however, is American, and the DC-4 used
in this service bears a Canadian registry. The headquarters of
British interests apparently own the major share of the firm.
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this small airline is on South Caicos islands, although the ABC
World Airways Guide places it in Sarasota, Florida.
Cubana Service
24. During 1970 the. governmert-owned Cubana Airlines carried
almost 31,000 passengers on scheduled international service, about the same
as in 1969. Despite severe equipment limitations, Cubana fulfilled most of
its scheduled flights to Prague, Mexico City, and Madrid throughout the
year in addition to frequent non-scheduled operations. All flights were by
Cubana's four Britannia aircraft and three Soviet-built IL-18s. At any one
time, one and frequently two of the Britannias were out of operation, either
in the United Kingdom for overhaul or down in Cuba for lack of spare
parts.
25. There have been persistent rumors and some negotiations since
1967 concerning Cuban acquisition of Soviet IL-62 aircraft. As early as
the spring of 1970, Cubana pilots and crews were reportedly training in
the USSR on the IL-62. The most recent Soviet-Cubana discussions were
held in Cuba in March 1971 to complete the sale of an unspecified number
of IL-62s for delivery in' late 1971 or 1972. This aircraft would enable
Cubana to improve existing service and inaugurate some new routes. The
current Havana-Prague flights could be made faster, and one of the two
intermediate stops on the return trip could be eliminated. With a more
competitive aircraft, Cubana might also attempt to negotiate with one or
more West European governments or with Canada for an intermediate stop
with traffic rights.
Conclusions and-Prospect
s
26. The pattern of scheduled air service to Cuba has not changed
much since 1963, although there has been some expansion in the last two
years. The addition of LAN-Chile in 1971 brought the number of airlines
providing scheduled international service to Cuba to five. The number of
weekly international flights has increased from nine to 12 as a result of
an additional flight to Moscow, another to Prague, and the inauguration
of service between Cuba and Chile. Moreover, Brussels was added as an
intermediate stop on CSA's regular weekly flight to Havana. Current
scheduled services link Cuba with the USSR, Czechoslovakia, and seven
non-Communist countries - Algeria, Belgium, Chile, Mexico, Morocco, Peni,
and Spain. .
27. The quality of service has also improved. Both Aeroflot and CSA
are now using the Soviet jet IL-62, and Iberia has added a stretch version
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of the DC-8. Although the Cubana inventory is still limited to ancient
Britannias and IL-18s, one and possibly two IL-62s may be delivered to
Cubana in another year or two.
28. In 1970, Cuba's very limited scheduled air services handled 65,000
international passengers. This was 10% above the 1969 level and 35% above
the average of 1965-68. Somewhat more than 50% of the passengers moved
between Cuba and the non-Communist countries, and the rest between Cuba
and USSR/Eastern Europe. More than one-third of the passengers to the
non-Communist countries were Cuban refugees exiting to Madrid.
29. Many more refugees have departed Cuba on the US airlift, which
carried some 245,000 refugees to Miami from its inception in December
1965 until its virtual termination by Fidel Castro on 31 August 1971. A
few airlines have been operating unscheduled flights to Cuba, but they
probably carry no more than 1,000 passengers annually to and from the
island.
30. The existing service between Cuba and the USSR/Eastern Europe
is adequate for the current flow of traffic, but additional service may be
in the offing. Aeroflot has long coveted a civil air route to the west coast
of South America, and service to Lima and Santiago might be established
as an extension to the existing Moscow-Havana service. The civil air
agreements signed by Cuba with Bulgaria and East Germany in 1968 have
not been implemented, because of limited traffic potential and equipment
limitations of Cubanna, East Germany's Interflug, and Bulgaria's BALKAN.
Recently, however, Bulgaria has indicated an interest in flights between Sofia
and Havana via East Berlin and Madrid. Although BALKAN has no
long-range aircraft, Bulgaria has reportedly proposed to lease one of
Interflug's three recently acquired IL-62s. In the unlikely event that this
proposal succeeds, Bulgaria would still have to obtain beyond rights to Cuba
from the Spanish government. Thus far, Interflug has shown no inclination
to fly to Cuba, and its IL-62s could be put to better use on other routes.
31. Some increases can also be expected in service to non-Communist
countries. Although no Mexican airline has operated scheduled service to
Cuba in almost a decade, Mexico may exercise its option under the new
Cuban-Mexican civil air agreement and authorize a Mexico City-Havana
service via Merida in the Yucatan Peninsula. It is also possible that a major
Western airline -- either Air Canada or one from Western Europe -- may
inaugurate service to Cuba.
To be profitable, however, any substantial expansion
of air service would require a large increase in tourism in Cuba, and the
Castro regime has given no firm indication that it is planning such an increa'e
in the next year or two.
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Scheduled Flights and Air Passenger Traffic Between Cuba and the USSR/Eastern Europe
196
1965
1968
6
Percentage Change
Airline sad
19
9
1970
in Passengers Carried
Flight Niaber !/
itinerar_
Flights
Passengers
Fli
ht
P
s
g
assengers
Flights
Passengers
Flights
Passengers
Fli
ht
g
s
Passengers
1970/1963
1970/1969
Total
D,227
6
g~
2x
616
"
,
4
31
6
To Cuba
219
11,316
247
12,761
227
13
199
219
14
424
,
,
219
15,457
37
7
OK-523
CU-477
Prague-Havana
Prague-Havana
57
74
3,952
8
62
3,305
48
2,088
4
245
21
2
235
SU-047/077
Moscow-Hava
i
88
0
3,9
64
4,068
54
=,466
87
5,790
55
,
4
146
n
3,384
121
5,388
125
7,625 /
128
8,389 W
143
,
9,076 /
From Cuoa
215
11,911
244
11,873
224
l4
~
21
4
s
5
1
.192
220
14,942
25
5
OK-524
Havana-Prague
55
3,021
63
8
9
4
Su-476
/078
Havana-Prague
Havana-Moscow
72
88
4,743
4
147
62
3,974
1
5
3,62
84
5.723
21
55
4,459
4,459
,
119
5,256
125
7,625
1227
8,389 ~
144
9:138
a
Th
. e a r
i
li
airline CSA ,
lights resumed in
Percent Ch
in Passengers Caaasrried
1 970 1 5 ,970/1969
62 17
97 1$
52 17
e a
a Th i
.
rline code designation, as established by IATA, is es follows: CU -- Cubans Airlines, IP --
.
(CSA) Spain`s Iberia Airlines, and OK -- Czechoslovakia's airline
ne code designation, as established by the International Air Transport Associati
on IATA is as follows: OK -- Czechoslovakia's
CU -- Cubans Airlines, S;1 -- Soviet Aeroflot.CSA flights OK-523/524 were changed to a designation OK-628/629 respectively when Prague-Havana f
November 1969. Aeroflot flights SU-047/077-048/078 were chanced to SU-331/333-3U-332/334 in April 1971.
b. Estimated.
Scheduled Flights and Air Passenger Traffic Between Cuba and Hon-Cacmunist Countries
i
5
1967
1968
6
Airline and
19
9
1970
Fliabt Number !/
Itinerary
Flights
Passengers
Fli
ht
s
g
Passengers
Flights
Passengers
Flights
Passe ers
Flights
Passengers
Total
472
24
g
2p5
4
2
24 75
4:
.
0
~
~7
~L~7
34,736
To Cuba
4,984
126
i,u3
1~
4
L2
1
8
8
2
L
2
2
,282 2
i
245
9,794
CU-465
CU-471
Mexico City-Havana
Madrid-Havana
141
=L
1
0
1
4
3,190
109
4,027
106
3,438
103
3
477
18-941
Madrid-Havana
54
,
55
0
2
1,144
'9
1,252
61
2,526
89
,
722
3
57
52
1,779
51
1,455
52
2,318
53
,
2,595
From Cuba
241
16,459
im
13,426
18,025
218
21,335
245
24,942
CU-464
CU-470
Havana-Mexico City
Havana-Madrid
141
36
10,216
4
2
0
102
4
4,987
110
7,973
106
8,380
103
6
585
IB-942
Havana-Madrid
54
5
,
200
5
2,625
42
3,405
60
5,432
89
,
8
485
OK-524
Havana-Paris
10
3,
593
52
5,814
51
6,647
52
7,523
53
,
9,87
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CUBA: Scheduled International Civil Air Service-SttmmeV1971
Murmnnsk
oto Route - - - - -
Aeroflot Alters - _ " -
Moscow
a
_ ahannon*
Prgue
Brussels
t~ Madrid
Panama Clty*
Airline
Route
Flight
Number
Flights
Per Week
Type of
Aircraft
Cub,.na,
Havana-Mexico City
CU-161
Mexico City-Havana
CU-465
Havana-Lima*?Son lingo
CU-460
Santiago-Lima'-Havana
CU-469
Havana-Santa Maria.
Madrid
Madrid-Gandor?-Havana
Havana-Gander ..Prague
CU-470
CU471
CU-176
Bristol
Britannia
P
'
1
Bristol
AIRLINES
rague-Shannon
-Gander.
Britannia
Cubana
Aeroflot
Aeroflot.
Moscow-Algiers?Rabat.
SU-331
CSA (Czechoslovakia)
Havana
Havana-Rabat-Algiers-
SU-332
Iberia
LAN?Chllo
Moscow
Moscow-Robot-Havana
5U-333
* Technical Stop
CSA:
Havana-Robot-Moscow
Prague-Montreal*-Havana
5U-334
OK?626**
IL-62
H
IL-62
av-.na-Montreal*-Prague
OK-627'-
Prague-Brussels-Montreal-.
Havana
1
H avan a-Mon trea l'-O r utsols. OK-629
Prague
IL-62
Madrid-Havana ID-941
Havana-Madrid I0-942
LAN-Chllet Santiago-Panama City*. LA-172
Havana-Madrid
Madrid-Havana?Panama LA-173
City-Santiago
'Technical Stop
**Operated 5 Juno to 29 August 1971 only
Monthly Booing
707
SECRET
Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/03/05: CIA-RDP85T00875R001700020067-5