TRANSMITTAL OF RECENT ESTIMATES ON DEMAND FOR US WHEAT EXPORTS 1973/74

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP85T00875R001900010063-8
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: C
• Document Page Count: 8
• Document Creation Date: December 19, 2016
• Document Release Date: May 17, 2006
• Sequence Number: 63
• Publication Date: December 6, 1973
• Content Type: MF

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'p [old or Re kegs
73
Council on International
fcono:7ic Policy
6 December 1973
fL:-IO1"ZA:wu:1 FOR: Mr. Dennis II. Wood
SUBJECT : Transmittal of Recent Estimates
on Domand for US cheat Exports,
1973/74
1. In response to your request, a table showing
the latest USDA and CIA estiiaates of demand for US
wheat ex;,orts by country and region is attached.I
A brief suwnmary of principal
25X1 ?ln in s has also been included.
2. Because of the possible interest of other
components of the Washington economic community in
this subject, this Office may send the attached
material to other interested officials.
3. Queries concerning; the attached contribution
should be directed to
On file Department of
Agriculture and Department
of Commere release
instructions apply.
Attach ment :
As stated
Distribution: (S-5743)
Orig & I- Addressee
1 -
D/OER /
25X1
1. -
St./P/C
1. -
SA/ER
1--
St/CS
2 - D/U
Chief
USS.;/Eastern Europe Division
Office of Economic Research
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OER:U/EE 6 Dec 1973
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ALTERNATIVE ESTIMATES OF EXPORT DEMAND FOR
U.S. WIIEAT, 1973/74
Central Intelligence Agency
Office of Economic Research
6 December 1973
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r~ra.,.. rn? lt
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ALTERNATIVE ESTIMATES OF EXPORT DE AAND FOR U.S.
WHEAT, 1973/74
Highlights
1. A comparison of the estimated export demand for
US wheat in FY74 between the September and December find-
ings is as follows (in million metric tons):
USDA
CIA
September 73*
29.9
36.3
December 73
.11 -.14
35.3
The data show that the gap between USDA and CIA projections
has been narrowed from about 6 million tons to 4 million
tons. CIA's projections, however, still exceed those of
USDA for every major region of the world (see Table).
2. Total US shipments of wheat plus anticipated
exports (excluding unspecified sales) reported by brokers
as of 2 November, have increased to 29.5 million tons since
August. This quantity represents about 94% of USDA's
projected total exports for FY74. An additional 5.7
million tons of wheat is listed by exporters without
specified destinations.
3. Since last August, the USDA has revised its
estimates of US wheat production (down by 1/2 million tons)
and of domestic use (down by roughly 3/4 million tons).
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These changes, coupled with the increase in USDA's
anticipated exports, would result in a further 1 million
tons reduction of carryover stocks at end of FY74 to a
new low of about 7 million tons. It may be difficult to
reduce stocks much below this level to even partially
support the higher level of export indicated by CIA
estimates.
4. CIA's estimated demand for US wheat exports of
35 million tons would be reduced if: a) Canada announced
a willingness to make more wheat available from stocks and
on more favorable terms than presently; b) the EC released
for export all the surplus wheat not denatured this year --
so far less than one-half (3 million tons) has been licensed
for export; and c) Australia and Argentina have not yet
committed all of their exportable wheat from this year's
harvest.
5. A significant development affecting world wheat
production since last August was the Soviets claim of a
record grain harvest for 1973 of "more than 215 million
tons". This level substantially exceeds the poor harvest
of 168 million tons last year and the previous record of
187 million tons in 1970. Of this, the wheat crop is
estimated to be about 105 million tons. This success,
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how-.ver, will not substantially relieve pros: :ureF on world
wheat supplies in FY74. The Soviets still will need the
6 million tons of wheat imports contracted for delivery
this Fiscal Year because of their domestic wheat quality
problems and depleted stocks. For.these same reasons,
they will be reluctant to export large amounts to countries
other than their traditional client states and the 2 million
tons promised to India. Indeed, the Soviets
expect little activity
for the balance of the current marketing year in both
the grain export or import markets.
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Estimated Demand for U.S. Wheat and Flour Exports, 19'13/74 a/
(in thousand metric tons)
Committments
CIA USDA b/ by 2 Nov c/
Destination
Americas:
Mexico
920 618
Brazil
1,300 976
Chile
420 416
Peru
600 285
Venezuela
600 502
Colombia
400 150
Central America
375 383
965 867
Others
Subtotal
5,580 4,600 .197.
Europe:
Eastern Europe
900 600 772
USSR
3,700_ 3,804
4,000
ium-Lux
Bel
_
270
2711
g
France
200
89
Italy
800
811
West Germany
490
489
100
1
1,031
Netherlands
Norwa
.,
85
N
62
0
in
y
0
0
C)
Portugal, Azores,
68
Madeira
135
Canaries
ain
S
50
40
,
p
Switzerland
50
3
K
U
850
382.
.
.
260
184
,
Others
Subtotal
91190 8,500 8,006
Asia:
Bangladesh
800 353
India
1,500 (1,500) 1,422
Iran
900 704
Israel
420 420
Ja
an
31390 (31300) 3,252
p
Korea
1,800 1,760
Lebanon
100 40
Pakistan
1,000 245
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+sia: (continued)
Philippines
450
180
Taiwan
660 (6u0)
596
PHC
4,200 (4,000)
3,722
Afghanistan
25
0
Hong Kong
70
49
Indonesia
600
550
Iraq
500
425
Jordan
60
22-
Malaysia
15
12
Singapore
30
25
South Vietnam
300
14
Saudi Arabia
25
12
Others
250
180
Subtotal
17,095 14,200
13,983
frica:
Algeria
1,500
1,487
Morocco
S00
252
Nigeria
400
735
Tunisia
270
74
Egypt
400
402
Ethiopia
5
Ghana
33
Others
311
Subtotal
3,450 2,500
3,299
total wheat
35,315 29,800
29,485
Flour and. products
d/ 1,500
e/
Total wheat equivalent
35,315 31,300
29,485
Unspecified
destination
5,663
total wheat
including
35,148
unspecified
destination)
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a Marketing year 1 July 1973 thru 30 June 1974.
h/ Statistical data shown for selected country and regional totals
were supplied by FAS/USDA
I Grand total of 31. million tons was taken from USDA ER ,
yiea Situation, November 1973.
Includes wheat shipments for 1 July to 31 October taken from
USDA, SRS, Grain Market News, 16 November 1973; plus anticipated
exports as of 2 November 1973 for the balance of the 1973/74
marketing year based on Department of Commerce data.
c1/ Flour included with individual country's wheat imports.
Excluded in reports by grain 'brokers to Commerce.
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