UPDATING OF ESTIMATES ON SOVIET EXPORTS OF MILITARY END ITEMS TO EASTERN EUROPE

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP85T00875R001900010073-7
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 9
• Document Creation Date: December 19, 2016
• Document Release Date: May 19, 2006
• Sequence Number: 73
• Publication Date: December 14, 1973
• Content Type: MF

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 App v d o elease 06/09 /26 Rl~P85T0,0 5R001900010073-7
Assistant Deputy irector Lor Intclligcnce
Dc:icnse Int?~11i~1cnce Agency
: Up,!at.irig of Lstimates on Soviet Exports of
Military End Itc is to eastern Europe
25X1.
2. W'o will continue to send you annual revisions as
soon a feasible after we receive the Soviet trade data
on which the estiiates are based.
25X1
Attac....r nts :
AZ stated above
MiWPICT C. ERNST
Director
Econoi;;ic i:osearch
(12 Dec 7-10)
UR/D/U/El' F
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~ 1.
Distribution: (S-5759) All w/att
Orig. & 1 - Addressee
2 - D/OER
1 - D/U
1 - OSR/R A/U
25X1 1 - St/CS
1-:;t/P
2 -- U/EL
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 Approved For Release 2006/09/26 : CIA-RDP85T00875R001900010073-7
Estimated Soviet Shipments 'of Military End Items
to Eastern $urope in 1972
The attached' tables update through 1972 our estimates
of Soviet military shipments to the East European countries:
based.
Bulgaria, Czechoslovakia, East Germany, Hungary, Poland,
Romania, and Yugoslavia. Table 1 contains estimates of
these shipments in millions of U.S. dollars for 1960-1972.
Table 2 shows these same estimates (except for Yugoslavia)
expressed as index numbers with 1960 100. Table 3
presents the summary data on which the estimates have been
The method used for estimating shipments in 1972 is
the same as that in previous publications and memoranda.
It is assumed that Soviet statistics on total exports to
Eastern Europe include military shipment:. A residual is
calculated which discloses the difference between the
reported total and the sum of the values of items exported
to each country. This residual represents an upper limit
for the value of Soviet military shipments. This year,
normally itemized grain shipments were omitted from the
1972 Soviet yearbook, Vneshnyaya Torgovlya SSSR. Residuals
calculated for Czechoslovakia, East Germany, and Poland
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were further adjusted by the estimated value of these
exports. Since the residuals conceivably contain other
non-military exports, correction factors of 1% and 3%
have been deducted from each country's residual. This
yields the range of estimates within which Sovie~ military
exports, by and large, are believed to fa;1.
In 1971 the Soviets changed the way they record
certain commodities in their.. yearbook. Some of the
commodities were switched to a different classification
and a few commodities that used to be under one classifi-
cation were divided among several different classifications.
For trade with each of the countries the overall level
of aggregation, of categories remained the same. A
comparison of Soviet figures for the year 1970 from the
1970 and 1971 handbooks was discussed
Figures calculated
for 1970 from the 1971 handbook were retained in this
memorandum. During 1972 the devisa exchange rate increased
from US $1.11 to an average US $1.21 per ruble, inflating
calculations for 1972 by approximately 9%. To facilitate
comparisons with earlier years, figures for 1972 have
also been recorded at the 1971 devisa exchange rate.
There was a noticeable increase in overall Soviet
military exports to Eastern Europe in 1972 -- even when.
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 Approved For Release - 01900010073-7
calculated at constant 1971 exchange rates. The largest
increases were recorded by Romania, 1C.9%, and East Germany,
14.8%. Bulgaria and Poland also registered increases,
but estimates for Czechoslovakia and Hungary declined sharply.
Polish statistics for 1972 like those for previous,
years since 1960
support the
estimates for Poland from Soviet statistics. It appears
that the Poles include practically all imports of military
end items under the total given for machinery and equipment
imports. Polish data shows that imports of machinery and
equipment front the USSR for 1972 totalled $522 million
at 1971 exchange rates while Soviet data for exports to
Poland of machinery and equipment were $280 million for
1972. The difference is or the same order of magnitude
as the residual found in Table 3 for the same year.
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SFCRF
 tirCI 1r
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Estimated Soviet Shipments oWeapons to Lantern Europe
a/
ear
Bulgaria
Czechoslovakia
East Germany
Hungary----Ynn
9G0
40 to 47
73 to 86
74 to 95
28 to 34
72 to 81
b to 10
961
54 to 62
67 to 80
91 to 115
50 to 57
95 to 106
24 to 30
962
60 to 69
69 to 85
103 to 130
68 to 77
91 to 103
39 to 46
963
32 to 42
70 to 87
112 to 138
64 to 73
94 to 107
51 to 59
964
36 to 47
123 to 141
131 to 159
49 to 59 1
26 to 139
84 to 94
965
19 to 31
108 to 127
124 to 151
61 to 72 1
38 to 153
58 to 66
966
7 to it
86 `,o 104
140 to 168
'17 to 27 1
40 to 156
31 to 39
967
7 to 22
81 to 101
122 to 151
35 to 47 1
29 to 147
36 to 44
968
43 to 52
89 to 110
188 to 218
44 to 59 2
02 to 223
53 to 61
969
62 to 82
104 to 126
289 to 324
43 to 57 1
96 to 220
71 to 81
970 b/
40 to 58
114 to 138
313'to 352
56 to 72 1
95 to 222
95 to 105
971
87 to 109
115 to 142
233 to 271
67 to 87 1
74 to 202
54 to 64
372 c/
90 to 115
101 to 129 e/
271 to 308 e/
54 to 74 1
80 to 209
e/
64 to 74
972 d/
98 to 125
110 to 140 e/
295 to 335 e/
59 to 80 1
96 to 227
e/
70 to 81
Million US Dollars
Total Yugoslavia
292 to 353 3 to 4
381 to 450 6 to 7
430 to 510 19 to 20
423 to 506 23 to 25
549 to 639 36 to 39
509 to 600 33 to 36
421 to 515 52 to 56
410 to 512 104 to 110
619 to 733 . 83 to 89
765 to 890 59, to 64
813 to 947 91 to 98
730 to 875 58 to 64
759 to 908 e/34 to 40
827 to 990 e/37 to 44
.
The estimated range was obtained by deducting , to 3 percent of Soviet export
s from the tra a resicluals.
?
u
Figures taken from 1971 Vneshny~a. aTorgovl a SSSR.
?
Fig
res computed at 1971 Ruble-Dollar devisa exchange rate.
.
Figures computed at 1972 Ruble-Dollar devisa exchange rate.
SECRET
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 Year Bulgaria
1960 100
1961 133
1962 148
1963 85
1964 95
1965 58
1966 32
1967 33
1968 120
7.969 165
1970 f ' 113
1971 225
1972 c/ 235
1972 d/ 256
Czechoslovakia
East Germany
Hungary
Poland
Romania
100
100
100
100
100
92
122
173
131
360
97
138
234
i27
567'
99
148
221
131
733
166
172
174
173
1,187
148
163
215
190
827
119
182
71
193
467
3.14
162
132
180
533
125
240
165
278
764
145
363
162
272
1,013
158
393
206
273
1,333
162
298
248
246
787
145 e/
342, 1
206
255 f
920
158 e/
372 f
224
277 er
1,007
a. Midpoinc of range shown in Table 1.
b. Figures taken from 1971 Vneshn a a Torovllyaa SSSR.
c. Figures based on 1971 Ruble-Dollar evid Tsa exchange rate.
d. Figures based on 1972 Ruble-Dollar devisa exchange rate.
e. Corrected for grain shipments.
SECRET
Indexes of Estimated Soviet Shipments of Weapons to Eastern Europe 2/
1960-72
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 Approved For Release 12006/09/26 - CIA-RDPR5Td0875RO01900010073-7
Table 3
Residuals in Soviet Exports to Eastern Europe and Yugaslavia 2/
1960 - 7L
1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1 1971 1972 c4 1.972 dL
Total exports (mil US $) 329.0 356.2 447.8 495.4 566.7 588.4 697.1 761.9 949.3 974.3
Residual (mii US $) 50.0 65.1 73.0 46.8 52.6 36.8 27.7 29.8 71.4 91.5
Residual as a % of
total exports 15.2 18.3 16.3 P.4 9.3 6.2 4.0 3.9' 7.5 9.4
Total exports (mil US $) 630.8 652.7 770.7 849.0 900.8 925.9 894.0 967.4 1,038.0 1,109.6
Residual (mil US $) 92.1 86.9 92.4 95.1 149.8 136.4 113.1 3.10.3 120.0 136.8
Residual as a % of
total exports 14.6 13.3 12.0 11.2 16.6 14.7 12.7 11.4 11.6 12.0
Total exports (mLl US $)
Residual (mil US $)
Residual as a % of
total exports
1,051.7 1,209.1 1,372.7 1,313.9 1,385.0 1,363.0 1,406.8 1,415.9 1,506.4, 1,739.0
105.4 127.5 144.2 151.1 172.8 164.8 182.8 164.8 233.2 341.1
10.0 10.5 10.5 11.5 12.5 12.1 13.0 11.E 15.5 19.6
Total exports (mil US $) 311.4 359.3 411.1 443.4 492.4 545.9 504.6 5A3.5 675.4 700.0
Residual (mil US $) 37.0 60.8 80.8 77.4 63.6 77.0 32.2 52.7 64.8 64.1
Residual as a % of
total exports 11.9 16.9 19.7 17.5 12.9 14.1 6.4 9.0 9.6 9.2
For years 19361959 see 1970 tables. Small discrepancies . - figures are the result of correction of 1970 tables.
Figures converted at 1971 Ruble-Dollar devisa exchange rate.
Figures converted at 1972 Ruble-Dollar devisa exchange rate.
Corrected for grain shipments.
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937.7
1,093.3
1,246.0 1,356.9
67.8
119.6
127.6 138.9
1,203.0
1,352.9
1,393.0 ?1,617.0
150.4
155.8
142.8ee/ 155.5
1
12.5
111.5
10.3 10.3
21,931.2
1,906.6
1,856.4 2,021.7
371.3
289.8
326.22/ 355.3ee
842.6
978.7
1,004.0 1,093.4
80.8
96.8
83.9 91.4
 Approved For Releas
Residuals in Soviet Exports to Eastern Europa and Yugoslavia
1960-72
1960
Total exports (mil US $) 490.8
Residual (mil US $) 86.3
Residual as a % of
total exports 17.6
Total exports (mil US $)
:Jesidual. (nil us $)
Residual as a % of
total exports
Total
Total Exports (mil US $)
xesidual (mil US $)
Residual as a % of
total exports
Yugoslavia
Total exports (nil US $)
Residual (nil US $)
Residual as a % of
total exports
200.7
12.5
4.8
3,074.4
283.3
12.5
55.1
4.3
7.8
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
530.7
594.1
662.5
660.0
726.7
803.2
912.1
1,050.1
1,199.0
111.4
108.5
113.4
145.4
159.9
163.6
156.2
233.8
231.9
21.0
18.3
17.1
22.0
22.0
20.4
17.1
22.3
19.3
291.8
374.8
399.0
493.0
402.8
386.3
394.6
416.7
476.4
32.7
50.1
63.3
99.2
70.3
42.9
47.8
65.6
85.5
11.2
13.4
15.9
20.1
17.5
11.:
12.1
15.7
17.9
3,399.8
3,971.2
4,163.2
4,498.2
4,552.7
4,692.0
5,037.4
5,635.9
6,198.4
484.4
'549.0
547.1
683.4
645.2
561.9
561.6
788.8
950.9
14.2
13.8
13.1
15.2
14.2
12.0
11.1
14.0
15.3
35.9
72.3
96.3
134.1
145.1
213.9
280.3
289.1
244.7
7.4
21.0
25.6
40.1
37.8
58.3
112.4
91.6
66.2
20.6
29.0
26.6
29.9
26.1
27.3
40.1
31.7
27.1
For years 19561959 see 1970 tables. Small discrepancies in figures Are the result of correction of 1970 tables.
Figures taken fran 1971 Soviet Yearbook.
Figures converted at 1971 Ruble-Dollar devisa exchange rate.
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1970 hJ 1971
1972 c/ 1972 OJ
1,349.9
1,d36.0
1,452.1 1,581.3
235.7
216.8
223.12/ 243.01
17.5
15.1
15.4 15.4
494.0
473.9
522.6 569.1
109.4
68.7
79.7 86.8
22.2
14.5
15.3 15.3
6,758.4
7,241.4
7,474.1 8,139.4
1,015.4
947.5
983.211,070.92.
15.0
. 13.1
13.2 13.2
326.1
326.1
313.0 340.9
100.8
67.7
43.5 47.4
30.9
20.8
13.9 13.9