ALTERNATIVE ESTIMATES OF EXPORT DEMAND FOR US WHEAT, 1973/74

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP85T00875R001900010104-2
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: C
• Document Page Count: 9
• Document Creation Date: December 19, 2016
• Document Release Date: May 23, 2006
• Sequence Number: 104
• Publication Date: January 11, 1974
• Content Type: REPORT

25X1
Approved For Release 2006/09/26 :CIA-RDP85T00875R001900010104-2
 Approved For Release 2( @ ,qi/%~~) .~I~LA~P85T00875R001900010104-?t-?
erq/eER 7141
Alternative Estimates of Export Demand
for US t?heat, 1973/74
(Revision No. 2)
Central Intelligence Agency
Office of Economic Research
11 January 1974
On file Department of Agriculture
release instructions apply.
,;T, r
C,,--!! ~_ 4 ; 7 i/`~.
Ciii i1_
25X1
Approved For Release 2006/09/26 : CIA-RDP85T00875R001900010104-2
 Approved For Release 2006/09/26 CIA-RDP85T00875R001900010104-2
Alternative F,sLimates of Ex ort Demand
for US Wheat, 1973/74
highlights
1. A comparison of the changes in USDA and CIA esti-
mated export demand for US wheat in FY74 since last
September's findings are as follows (in million metric
tons):
USDA
CIA
1 September 73*
29.9
36.3
3 December 73
31.3
34.9
7 January 74
32.0
34.1
Although the data show that the gap between USDA and CIA
projections has been narrowed to 2 million tons, CIA's
projections arc sti-1 larger for every major region of
the world, especially those of the Americas and Asia.
2. Total US shipments of wheat plus outstanding
export sales reported by brokers as of 16 December have
increased to nearly 31.5 million tons. This quantity
represents about 98% of USDA's December projection of
i1% f`^7!"1.. (
.JI I 4 1 iii ...{~ {
Approved For Release 2006/09/26 : CIA-RDP85T00875R001900010104-2
 Approved For Release 2006/09/26 : CIA-RDP85T00875R001900010104-2
export!.t for FY. /4. US brokers listed another 4.6 million
tons of wheat for export without destinations. US ship-
ments of wheat in the July-Novcmber period ran at an
unprecedented annual rate of nearly 40 million tons.
3. The total US supply of wheat has declined slightly
since NoN-.mber. Final production data for 1973 released in
December by USDA lowered wheat output by 26 million bushels
to 1,711 million bus:iels. Simultaneously the projections
for US, wheat exports ir, FY74 was raised by 25 million
bushels to 1,175 million bushels (32 million tons) . The
combination of these two actions lowered the' estimated
30 June 1974 stock, to a 25 year low of 212 million bushels
(5.8 million metric tons). Exports in excess of 32 million
tors will reduce carryover stocks further. Prompt marketing
of the winter wheat crup by Southeast farmers in late May-
early June could be critical to US dometic supplies.
4. Demand for US wheat exports continue bullish with
prices strengthening in recent days. Some of the reasons
for this development include:
-- The premium prices asked by Canada for a smaller
exportable surplus;
-- indications that the Australian wheat harvest was
damaged by rust disease;
CiL)l`srIAL
Approved For Release 2006/09/26 : CIA-RDP85T00875R001900010104-2
 Approved For Release 2006/09/26 CIA-RDP85T00875R001900010104-2
-- the i:C so feu: ha"..' only i.ssuec1 export liccn:;es
for about one half of the cr,timai:ed 6 million tons
of wheat available for export;
-- possible forward buying by countries to hedge
against strcngthen9.ng of the dollar in intbcr-
national money markets; and
-- the limited quantity of uncommitted exportable
wheat fcr delivery in FY74 in the hands of other
exporters (Canada, Australia, and Argentina).
5. There are still no firm indications that the
Soviets, in spite of a bumper wheat harvest, will export
large amounts to countries other than their traditional
client states and the 2 million tons promised to India.
However,-an Eksportkhleb representative recently implied
that the Soviets had not closed the door on future exports.
Although the Soviets have not, yet requested US brokers to
delay shipping any of the PY74 contracted deliveries of
wheat until after 1 July, it remains a possibility, Such
a development would help alleviate the export pressure on
tight US wheat supplies.
Approved For Release 2006/09/26 : CIA-RDP85T00875R001900010104-2
25X1
 Approved For Release 2006/09/26 :,.CIA RD,P85T00875R001900010104-2
'r al) e .
Estimated Demand for U.S. 14hcat and 1'].ourr i.xports, 1.973/74 a/
(in thov.s.mid mhLri.c toll. "O
Destination
Anlericc.s
Mexico
Brazil
Chile
Peru
Venezuela
' olumbia
Central America
Others d/
Europe:
Eastern Europe
USSR
Belgium-Lux
France
Italy
West Germany
Netherlands
Norway
Portugal, Azores,
Madeira
Spain, Canaries
Switzerland
U.K.
Others d/
Bangladesh
India
Iran
Israel
Japan
Korea, South
Lebanon
Commitment!.
CIA USDA b/ t Y.2 Dec 73 c/
920
1,300
420
600
600
400
375
950
5,565 4,600 , 4,509
800 600 769
3,770 3,800 3,766
270
200
800
490
1,100
p ,o
135
50
50
850
260
8,860 8,600
700
1,425 (1,500)
900
420
3,390 (3,300)
1,800
200
(1,422)
(3,233)
25X1
Approved For Release 2006/09/26 : CIA-RDP85T00875R001900010104-2
 Approved For Release 2006/09/26 :.CL. f .P,8 T00875R001900010104-2
(continued)
Pakistan 300
Philippines 480
Taiwan GGO
People's Republic of China 4,100 (4,000)
Afghani Stan
Hong Kong
Indonesia
Iraq
Jordan
Malaysia
Singapore
South Vietnam
Saudi Arabia
Others d/
25.
70
600
500
60
15
30
300
25
250
Africa:
Algeria 1;500
Morocco 500
Nigeria 400
Tunisia 270
Egypt 400
Ethiopia
Ghana
Others d/
I w
??
0
(724)
(3,008)
Total wheat 34,125 30,900 30,314
Flour and products e/ 1,100 f'/
Total wheat equivalent 34,725 32,000 30,314
Unspecified destination
Total wheat (including
unspecified destination)
a. Marketing year 1 July 1973 thru 30 June 1974.
b. Statistical data shown were supplied by FAS/USDA cn
7 January 1974.
c. Includes wheat shipments inspected for export 1 July to
30 November 1973 taken from USDA, SRS, Grain Market News,
14 December 1973; plus undelivered export sales as of
2 December 1973 for the balance of FY74 based on USDA/SRS
data.
CON'?"1? -E" T1 X11_
?25X1
Approved For Release 2006/09/26 : CIA-RDP85T00875R001900010104-2
 Approved For Release 2006/09/26 CIA-RDP85T00875R001900010104-2
qtr.' , ~
d. Olhc-r Americus,
Argentina
Bolivia
Canada
Ecuauor.
Guyana
Haiti
Jamai.:a
Ne_th. Antilles
Sierra Leone
Surinam
Trinidad & Tobago
Other. Europe
Austria
Cyprus
Greece
Malta
OL?lter Asia
Aden
Cambodia
Syria
Thailand
Turkey
Yemen
Sri Lanka
Other Africa
Dahomey
Kenya
Liberia
Libya
Maderia Is.
Sudan
Zaire
e. Flour included with individual country's wheat import projection.
f . Excluded in reports by grain brolers to USDA.
Approved For Release 2006/09/26 : CIA-RDP85T00875R001900010104-2
25X1
 Approved For Release 2006/09/26 CIA-13QP 5,TP0875R001900010104-2
Distribution:
Orig. & 1
2
1.
1
OER/D/U/EE:I
Addressee
D/OI;P
ST/P/C
Sr'/ER
St/CS
Ch/D/U
U/EE
(11 Jan 74)
25X1
Approved For Release 2006/09/26 : CIA-RDP85T00875R001900010104-2