Soviet Acquisition

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP85T00875R001900030207-6
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 5
• Document Creation Date: December 19, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 18, 2005
• Sequence Number: 207
• Publication Date: March 28, 1975
• Content Type: MF

25X1
Approved For Release 2005/12/14 :CIA-RDP85T00875R001900030207-6
 Approved For Rele
28 March 1975
Attached are the draft paragraphs you requested from
this branch concerning the economic impact of potential Soviet
purchases of US wide-bodied aircraft. The analysis has not
been formally coordinated with OSR but has been discussed with
relevant analysts. If differences of opinion arise between
various contributors, we are prepared to discuss and coordin-
ate our views prior to the submission of the final draft.
Attachment:
As stated
Distribution: (S-07096)
Original Addressee
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 Approved For Pelease 2005/12/14: CIA-RDP85T008p5R001900030207-6
/-,"J A I . , SIgnn, , ,. a lean 1s ion of
Western i-,: ii tion i'cchno1ocY.
Background
1. The USSR's interest in purchasing US manufactured
wide bodied aircraft dates bac.. more than four years, when
Soviet officials began inforrial discussions with Boeing repre-
sentatives in foreign countries. In the past two years these
talks have graduated into reciprocal exchanges between Soviet
aviation officials and each of the three US manufacturers of
wide bodied aircraft -- McDonnell Douglas (DC-10 series);
Lockheed (L-1011 series); and Boeing (747 series).
2. Soviet interest in such acquisitions have ebbed and
flowed since mid-1973.
3. Estimates of how many wide bodied aircraft the USSR
may be interested in have ranged widely -- from a low of two to
a high of fifty.
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 Approved For R
If the Soviets are cjcnuinely interested in using such
aircraft, five to ten would,seem a realistic initial order.
I mpact
4. The acquisition of as many as ten US wide bodied
aircraft would have virtually no economic impact on the vast
operations of Aeroflot, the Soviet national airline. Indeed,
even the purchase of up to thirty US wide-bodied aircraft
would account for less than five percent of Aeroflot's current
maximum lift capacity of 275,000 passengers at any one time.
5. Aeroflot's fleet inventory of high performance
turboprop and jet aircraft is approaching 41,500 aircraft. About
1,000 of these are jets, including over 300 medium to 'onger
range models and 500 short-take-off and landing (STOL) aircraft.
7. If technology transfer is not an integral part of any
US-USSR aviation.dealings, the prospects for a separate purchase
of US aircraft is virtually nil. Moreover, with an absence of
technology transfer, it seems inconceivable that the Soviets
will make US aircraft an integral part of the Aeroflot fleet
under_ the Ministry of Civil Aviation (MGA): Although some MGA
officials say they would favor such an acquisition, most MAI
(Ministry of Aviation Industry) officials oppose such plans.
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Instead, MAI would prefer to proceed with the development of
their shorter range version of a wide bodied aircraft -- the
IL-86 -- despite the fact that it will probably not be intro-
duced until 1980.
8. Nothwithstanding this controversy, the Soviets will
continue attempts to acquire US technology for a broad range
of aviation applications.I In almost all areas of civil avia-
tion development and production technology, the Soviets lag
the US by a minimum of. five year . For specialty areas such
as aircraft wiring, selected avionics, and the application of
computer controlled machine tool. processes to civil aircraft
production, the gap is at least 10 years. Foreign assistance
is thus sorely needed to bring the technical aspects of Soviet
aviation close to Western, standards.
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