WITH THE ADMINISTRATIVE ELECTIONS BEHIND THEM, ITALIAN POLITICIANS ARE NOW TURNING THEIR ATTENTION TO THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION.

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP85T01058R000202880001-6
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 3
• Document Creation Date: December 22, 2016
• Document Release Date: April 26, 2010
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: May 14, 1985
• Content Type: MISC

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State Dept. review
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EURA/WE/CM
14 May 198
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With the administrative elections behind them, Italian
politicians are now turning their attention to the presidential
election. Balloting to choose President Pertini's successor is
not expected to begin before 23 June, and it may. be a few weeks
yet before the maneuvering gets seriously underway.
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The public has no direct say in this contest. The Italian
President is elected by a special electoral college consisting of
nearly 1000 members. (Both houses of parliament along with three
representatives from nineteen of the country's 20 regions and one
representative from the smallest region, Valle d'Aosta.) A
candidate needs a three-quarters majority to win during the first
three ballots; thereafter, an absolute majority suffices.
Because it is virtually impossible for any candidate to win
three-quarters of the vote, the election usually requires
multiple ballots that more often than not lead to compromise 25X1
candidates and surprise results.
The presidency has been primarily a ceremonial post
throughout most of the Republic's forty years, but President
Pertini has demonstrated clearly that, the job is an important
reservoir of potential power. For example, through his rulings
on whether to proceed with early national elections and his
choices of Prime Ministers Pertini has exerted a strong influence
on the direction of Italian politics. 25X1
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Pertini is eligible to seek a second term
Press, Embassy,'
all suggested earlier this spring that if Pertini
e t the race, Vice Premier Arnaldo Forlani, a Christian
Democrat, would probably be the strongest candidate.
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At first glance, the governing coalition's strong
performance in last week's administrative elections is likely to
encourage the five parties of the coalition to coalesce behind a
popular moderate candidate like Forlani. Rumors of the deal with
Craxi reportedly have angered some members of both parties'
parliamentary delegations, however, and it is not clear that
Forlani will be able to rally enough support from within the 25X1
For their part, the Communists have stated publicly that
they intend to support Pertini. We suspect that they will put
forward Communist Lower Chamber President Nilde Jotti as a
stalking horse, however, if Pertini does not run. Communist
leaders have told US officials that they oppose Forlani,
practically guaranteeing that he can not be elected during the
first three rounds. If the governing coalition is divided over
Forlani, the Communists' numerical strength among the electors
would enable them to exert a strong influence on the final
selection. 25X1
Several long-time aspirants for the office, including
Christian Democrats such as former Senate President Fanfani and
Foreign Minister Andreotti, may throw their hats in the ring.
But some, like Andreotti, are tainted by scandal and others, such
as Fanfani_ have lost ground in their parties in recent years. 25X1
Giovanni Spadolini, Republican Minister of Defense.
Scalfaro, Christian Democratic Minister of the Interior; and
Several other prominent personalities are in the running and
should Forlani falter, any of the following could emerge as a
compromise candidate: Leopoldo Elia, a former Christian
Democratic President of the Constitutional Court, Tina Anselmi, a
former Christian Democratic President of the Senate; Oscar 25X1
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