WITH THE ADMINISTRATIVE ELECTIONS BEHIND THEM, ITALIAN POLITICIANS ARE NOW TURNING THEIR ATTENTION TO THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION.

Document Type: 
Collection: 
Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 
CIA-RDP85T01058R000202880001-6
Release Decision: 
RIPPUB
Original Classification: 
S
Document Page Count: 
3
Document Creation Date: 
December 22, 2016
Document Release Date: 
April 26, 2010
Sequence Number: 
1
Case Number: 
Publication Date: 
May 14, 1985
Content Type: 
MISC
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PDF icon CIA-RDP85T01058R000202880001-6.pdf97.28 KB
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Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/08/02 : CIA-RDP85TO1058R000202880001-6 AF ----.r I U&M DOC NQ P&PD Cr....A... State Dept. review completed Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/08/02 : CIA-RDP85TO1058R000202880001-6 25X1 25X1 EURA/WE/CM 14 May 198 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/08/02 : CIA-RDP85TO1058R000202880001-6 With the administrative elections behind them, Italian politicians are now turning their attention to the presidential election. Balloting to choose President Pertini's successor is not expected to begin before 23 June, and it may. be a few weeks yet before the maneuvering gets seriously underway. 25X1 The public has no direct say in this contest. The Italian President is elected by a special electoral college consisting of nearly 1000 members. (Both houses of parliament along with three representatives from nineteen of the country's 20 regions and one representative from the smallest region, Valle d'Aosta.) A candidate needs a three-quarters majority to win during the first three ballots; thereafter, an absolute majority suffices. Because it is virtually impossible for any candidate to win three-quarters of the vote, the election usually requires multiple ballots that more often than not lead to compromise 25X1 candidates and surprise results. The presidency has been primarily a ceremonial post throughout most of the Republic's forty years, but President Pertini has demonstrated clearly that, the job is an important reservoir of potential power. For example, through his rulings on whether to proceed with early national elections and his choices of Prime Ministers Pertini has exerted a strong influence on the direction of Italian politics. 25X1 25X1 25X1 25X1 25X1 25X1 Pertini is eligible to seek a second term Press, Embassy,' all suggested earlier this spring that if Pertini e t the race, Vice Premier Arnaldo Forlani, a Christian Democrat, would probably be the strongest candidate. Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/08/02 : CIA-RDP85TO1058R000202880001-6 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/08/02 : CIA-RDP85TO1058R000202880001-6 At first glance, the governing coalition's strong performance in last week's administrative elections is likely to encourage the five parties of the coalition to coalesce behind a popular moderate candidate like Forlani. Rumors of the deal with Craxi reportedly have angered some members of both parties' parliamentary delegations, however, and it is not clear that Forlani will be able to rally enough support from within the 25X1 For their part, the Communists have stated publicly that they intend to support Pertini. We suspect that they will put forward Communist Lower Chamber President Nilde Jotti as a stalking horse, however, if Pertini does not run. Communist leaders have told US officials that they oppose Forlani, practically guaranteeing that he can not be elected during the first three rounds. If the governing coalition is divided over Forlani, the Communists' numerical strength among the electors would enable them to exert a strong influence on the final selection. 25X1 Several long-time aspirants for the office, including Christian Democrats such as former Senate President Fanfani and Foreign Minister Andreotti, may throw their hats in the ring. But some, like Andreotti, are tainted by scandal and others, such as Fanfani_ have lost ground in their parties in recent years. 25X1 Giovanni Spadolini, Republican Minister of Defense. Scalfaro, Christian Democratic Minister of the Interior; and Several other prominent personalities are in the running and should Forlani falter, any of the following could emerge as a compromise candidate: Leopoldo Elia, a former Christian Democratic President of the Constitutional Court, Tina Anselmi, a former Christian Democratic President of the Senate; Oscar 25X1 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/08/02 : CIA-RDP85TO1058R000202880001-6