PAKISTAN: MILITARY CAPABILITIES AGAINST SOVIET AGGRESSION FROM AFGHANISTAN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP85T01058R000406150002-9
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 4
• Document Creation Date: December 22, 2016
• Document Release Date: September 15, 2009
• Sequence Number: 2
• Publication Date: April 19, 1985
• Content Type: REPORT

Approved For Release 2009/09/15: CIA-RDP85T01058R000406150002-9 ~1~
Central Intelligence Agency
Washington. D. C. 20SOS
DIRECTORATE OF INTELLIGENCE
19 Apr,i 1 1985
Pakistan: Military Capabilities Against
Soviet Aggression from Afghanistan
Summary
Pakistan plans a defense-in-depth against a
large-scale Soviet attack from Afghanistan. Pakistani
forces would take advantage of the rugged terrain
along much of the border to slow and harass a Soviet
offensive. Islamabad would expect US assistance to
defend against large-scale Soviet incursions into
Pakistan.
The Pakistanis regard the~Soviet presence in Afghanistan as a long-term
military threat to Pakistan's security. They do not believe the Soviets at
present have the capability for major military operations. against Pakistan.
Islamabad wants to avoid a military confrontation with the Soviets and will
continue to act with restraint in response to minor provocations along the
border, but probably would battle Soviet or Afghan troops making a concerted
cross-border attack. The Pakistanis also probably would def end against
Soviet/Afghan air attacks much deeper than those which have already
occurred.
This memorandum was prepared by ~of the
Pakistan/Afghanistan/Bangladesh Branca;-Sou sia~ivision,
Office of Near Eastern and South Asian Analysis. Information as
of 19 April 1985 was used in its preparation. Comments and
queries are welcome and may be directed to Chief, South Asia
Division, at
NESA M 85-10076
25X1
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 Approved For Release 2009/09/15: CIA-RDP85T01058R000406150002-9
For their part, the Soviets would have difficulty mounting large-scale
operations in Pakistan's border regions without first substantially augmenting
their forces, improving their logistics, and reducing insurgent effectiveness
in Afghanistan. Although the Soviets probably could hold Pakistani territory,
they would be faced with protracted guerrilla warfare in difficult. terrain by
tough, highly-motivated Pakistani irregulars defending their tribal
territories, the prospect of Pakistan Army counterattacks, and the possibility
that the conflict would escalate and draw in the United States.
Pakistan's Defense Strategy
Pakistan's defenses and doctrine in the west call for defense-in-depth of
the North-West Frontier and Baluchistan Provinces. They would take advantag e
of the terrain that would limit opposing ground forces to a few border
crossings. The Pakistanis would try to delay an initial offensive by
defending strategic passes while attempting to outflank the main axis of
attack. As a last resort, they would destroy bridges and dams to slow a drive
toward Punjab or Sind Provinces. Islamabad would expect US assistance--
including arms supplies and logistic support--to defend against large-scale
Pakistan's Defenses
Primary responsibility for defending the border belongs to the 50,000-man
paramilitary Frontier Corps, which lacks heavy weapons and has only limited
mobility. Only four of the Pakistan Army's 18 divisions are currently
deployed opposite Afghanistan, and one of these divisions will soon be
relocated to the Indian border. Except for a few battalions at each of the
major border crossings, the Army occupies defensive positions some 15 to 30
kilometers away from the ,border, where they are better able to protect
important supply lines.
Pakistani forces opposite Afghanistan are weak in logistics, mobility,
and firepower. Little has been done since the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan
to improve the logistic infrastruct r to facilitate the
movement of forces from the east.
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SECRET
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 Approved For Release 2009/09/15: CIA-RDP85T01058R000406150002-9
SUBJECT: Pakistan: Military Capabilities Against Soviet
Aggression from Afghanistan
Internal Distribution:
DDI
NIO/NESA
NIO/EA
C/PES
D/NESA
DD/NESA
C/PPS
D/OEA
C/SO/D/NESA
C/SO/S/NESA
C/SO/P/NESA
D/SOVA
C/SOYA/RIG
1 - CPAS/ISS
1 - PDB Staff
4 - CPAS/IMD/CB
2 - NESA/PS
2 - SO/P/Branch
DDI/NESA/SO/S/P~
(19 Apr 85) 25X1
3
SECRET
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 Approved For Release 2009/09/15: CIA-RDP85T01058R000406150002-9
25X1'
SUBJECT: Pakistan: Military Capabilities Against Soviet
Aggression from Afghanistan 25X1
External Distribution:
Peter Burleigh, Bureau of Intelligence and Research, South Asia
Division, Department of State, Room 4636A, lashington, D.C. 20520
Major General Kenneth D. Burns, USAF, deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense
for Near Eastern and South Asian Affairs, International Security Affairs,
Pentagon, Room 4D765, Washington, D.C. 20301
Captain Edward Louis Christensen, USN, Chief, South Asian Regional Plans and
Policy Branch, Department of Defense, Room 2E973, Pentagon, Washington, D.C.
20301
Byron Jackson, Office of Intelligence Liaison, Department of Commerce, Room
6854, Washington, D.C. 20520
Colonel Kenneth E. McKim Director, Office of the Secretary of Defense,
International Security Affairs, Near East and South Asia Region, Department of
Defense, Room 4D765, Pentagon, Washington, D. C. 20301
Christopher Ross, Director Regional Affairs, Bureau of Near Eastern and South
Asian Affairs, Department of State, Room 5254A, Washington, D. C. 20520
Dr. John D. Stempel, Director, Near East and South Asia Region, International
Security Affairs, Department of Defense, Room 4D755, Pentagon, Washington,
D.C. 20301
Peter Tomsen, Director, INS, Bureau of Near Eastern and South Asian Affairs,
Department of State, Room 5251, Washington, D. C. 20502
Darnell 6Jhitt, Intelligence Adviser to the Under Secretary of Defense for
Policy, Room 4D840, Pentagon, Wshington, D.C. 20301
Commander Ron Z~riart, Near Eastern and South Asian Affairs, International
Security Affairs, Department of Defense, Room 4D7o5, Pentagon, Washington,
D.C. 20301
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SECRET
Approved For Release 2009/09/15: CIA-RDP85T01058R000406150002-9