NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE DAILY FRIDAY 4 MARCH 1983

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP85T01094R000100010022-1
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 12
• Document Creation Date: December 22, 2016
• Document Release Date: June 17, 2010
• Sequence Number: 22
• Publication Date: March 4, 1983
• Content Type: REPORT

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Director of
Central
Intelligence
op,
National Intelligence Daily
Friday
4 March 1983
Top Seeret
rp Am lyip 83 !n
4 March 198 j
Copy
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Top Secret
El Salvador: Possible Election Agreement . . . . . . . . . 1
Australia: Election
Campaign Ends . . . . . . . . . . . . 4
Israel: New Violence
in the West Bank . . . . . . . . . . 8
Pakistan-Afghanistan: Killings in Peshawar . . . . . . . . 9
Indonesia: Reelection of Soeharto . . . . . . . . . . . . 9
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EL SALVADOR: Possible Election Agreement
Top Secret
The major political parties eyidentZg have agreed to support
national elections in 1983.
President Magana has informed the US Ambassador
that the political commission, made up of independents
and representatives of the three parties in the govern-
ment, has endorsed moving the timetable up from March
1984. Additional commission meetings have been scheduled.
Magana also intends to hold discussions with some minor
party leaders.
Defense Minister Garcia, the commission's only mili-
tary representative, attended the meeting Wednesday.
National Guard leader General Vides Casanova also was
present.
Comment: The apparent decision to speed up elec-
tions probably reflects the government's efforts to re-
gain the political and propaganda initiatives it fears
it has lost to the guerrillas. Nevertheless, some polit-
ical leaders are likely to be concerned that the impact
of the move has been lessened by recent public disclosures
and by the possibility that it will be viewed as dictated
by the US.
Vides Casanova, who is a moderate and pragmatic of-
ficer, is next in line to replace Garcia as Defense Min-
ister.
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AUSTRALIA: Election Campaign Ends
The Labor Party continues its Zead in the polls over Prime
Minister Fraser's Liberal - National Party coalition as Australians
prepare to vote tomorrow.
The three-week campaign has focused largely on
economic issues, despite Fraser's attempts to alarm
voters with claims that a Labor victory would threaten
relations with the US. Labor leader Hawke has pre-
sented an appearance of unprecedented party unity during
the campaign. Labor also has appealed to voters by re-
treating from plans to devalue the Australian dollar,
assuring against a sudden withdrawal of Australian troops
from the Sinai Multinational Force, and tempering objec-
tions to uranium development and joint Australian-US
facilities.
Polls indicate many voters blame Fraser's conserva-
tive policies for failing to reduce 11-percent inflation
and 9- to 10-percent unemployment. At the same time, they
are wary of Labor's calls for increased government spend-
ing to stimulate economic growth and ease unemployment.
Comment: Labor's 11- to 13-point lead in the
latest polls has raised the party's hopes that it will
achieve the 11-seat swing needed to win the election.
Previous elections, however, have shown that voters
tend to rally around the Liberal - National Party coalition
at the last minute. As a result, political observers in
Australia believe the election will be close.
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Top Secret
Mediterranean
Sea
.Nablus
UN
2.
GOLAN
HEIGHTS
(Israeli
occupied/
Lake(
Tiberias
r
Syria
(status to be
Tel Aviv-Yaf determined)
2
GAZA/
STRIP-,
(status to be/
deteimcoed)
AMMAN
`Jordan
0 20
Kilometers
Boundary repr.untrtion is
not nece rdy authwit.tivs.
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Israeli authorities have failed so far to contain
a new outbreak of violence in the West Bank between
extremist Jewish settlers and Arab residents. The latest
disturbances began with the bombing on Friday of a mosque
in Hebron. Violent protests by Arab youths have led to
the closing of several schools and the imposition of cur-
fews in Hebron and Nablus. Militant Jewish settlers
have formed vigilante squads that have made several
attacks on Arabs.
Comment: Periodic outbursts of violence are common
in the West Bank, but this round has been marked by in-
creased lawlessness on the part of radical Jewish settlers.
Although Israeli authorities yesterday for the first
time began house-to-house searches of Jewish settlements
near Hebron, the government is unlikely to completely
prevent violence by the settlers. The continuing ex-
pansion of settlements in the West Bank assures a worsen-
ing of relations between Arabs and Jews there.
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India
Boundary representation is
not necessarily authoritative.
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PAKISTAN-AFGHANISTAN: Killings in Peshawar
The US Consul in Peshawar, Pakistan, confirms two
prominent members of moderate Afghan insurgent groups
were murdered recently outside the city. Leaders of the
groups claim rival fundamentalist insurgents have killed
at least six other guerrilla commanders in the last two
months. Pakistani police have no direct evidence of
fundamentalist involvement and believe Soviet and Afghan
agents may be responsible. The Soviets reportedly have
long been using Afghan agents and assassination teams in
an attempt to, incite infighting among insurgent groups
in Pakistan.
Comment: In addition to weakening the insurgents,
the Soviets may believe that fomenting violence among
guerrillas in Pakistan could harm the insurgents' rela-
tions with Islamabad, leading to restrictions on the
guerrillas' access to weapons and on activity near the
border with Afghanistan. The killings, however, also
may be the result of continuing personal, political, and
religious differences among the Afghan exiles.
The 11-day session of the government-controlled
People's Consultative Assembly that opened on Tuesday
will reelect President Soeharto to his fourth five-year
term, approve his selection for vice president, and en-
dorse political and economic guidelines for the next
five years. Soeharto's designation of retired Army
General Umar Wirahadikusumah as the candidate for vice
president further concentrates power in his hands by
sidetracking better known potential candidates for suc-
cession. Rumored cabinet shifts expected after the
Assembly include the ouster of Defense Minister Jusuf
and leading technocrats.
Comment: These appointments may reflect how Soeharto
intends to deal with the country's serious financial
problems. The current account deficit this year is likely
to be between $9 billion and $11 billion and could force
adoption of more stringent austerity measures. Soeharto
also faces tensions and problems resulting from genera-
tional change in both the military and the civilian
leadership.
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