NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE DAILY TUESDAY 11 JANUARY 1983

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP85T01094R000100010196-9
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 15
• Document Creation Date: December 22, 2016
• Document Release Date: July 12, 2010
• Sequence Number: 196
• Publication Date: January 11, 1983
• Content Type: REPORT

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Ton SPrrPt
France-USSR: Dispute Over INF . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3
USSR-Turkey: Transit Fee Issue . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4
El Salvador: Guerrilla Activity . . . . . . . . . . . . 6
PLO-USSR: Arafat's Visit . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6
Italy: Reactions to Austerity Measures . . . . . . . . . 7
Japan - South Korea: Status of Loan Negotiations . .
Suriname-US: Foreign Minister's Proposed Visit . . . . . 8
Bolivia: Cabinet Resignations . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9
China: Population Control Measures . . . . . . . . . . . 10
11 January 1983
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FRANCE-USSR: Dispute Over INF
Diametrically opposed views on whether French nuclear weapons
should be taken into account at the INF negotiations in Geneva will
be an obstacle to improvement of Franco-Soviet relations.
The French Ambassador in Moscow, in a recent meet-
ing with Foreign Minister Gromyko, objected to General
Secretary Andropov's linking of French systems to Soviet
and US arsenals in his speech on INF on 21 December. The
Ambassador argued that France's nuclear weapons are en-
tirely independent of NATO with regard to procurement,
targeting, and employment doctrine. He also said taking
French forces into account would imply they would be sub-
ject to reductions, whereas Paris views its current force
level as the minimum necessary to ensure credibility.
In addition, the Ambassador maintained consideration
of French forces would lead negotiators to balance Soviet
intermediate-range systems against West European forces.
According to the Ambassador, this would prolong the USSR's
numerical superiority over the US in intermediate-range
missiles, disassociate US nuclear forces from the defense
of Western Europe, and leave Western Europe vulnerable to
attack by Soviet strategic systems.
Gromyko responded that French forces have to be con-
sidered in the INF balance because France is a member of
the Atlantic Alliance.
Comment: French officials apparently expect the
Soviets to attempt to sow discord in the Alliance by
making new demands to consider French systems in the
INF balance. Foreign Minister Cheysson probably will
restate the French position forcefully when he visits
Continued Soviet insistence on this issue, which
the French consider central to their national sovereignty,
could impede a possible Mitterrand-Andropov summit next
spring.
11 January 1983
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The USSR's refusal to pay Turkey's tenfold increase in fees
for merchant ships transiting the Bosporus may soon result in a
limited economic confrontation.
The Turkish press reports that since mid-December,
over 100 Soviet ships have gone through the Bosporus
Strait without paying the Turks service fees required
by the Montreux Convention. The USSR is protesting the
increase that resulted from Turkey's decision in November
to peg the fees to the market rate for gold instead of
the official rate. Ankara's action follows years of
frustration over continuing decreases in real revenues
for services agreed to in the Convention, which entitles
Turkey to just compensation.
Turkey maintains the market rate for gold reflects
its true value as envisaged by the drafters of the Con-
vention. Although most other users of the passage to
the Black Sea reportedly are paying the higher fees,
the Soviets contend the increase is illegal and requires
revision of the Convention. The Turks are now broadly
hinting that ships that do not comply will be impounded.
Comment: Traffic to and from the USSR probably
accounts for about three-fourths of the merchant shipping
volume going through the Bosporus. If Turkish projections
of $300 million in revenue this year are accurate, the
new rates would cost the Soviets an additional $225 mil-
lion in hard currency at a time when they are seeking to
reduce such expenditures.
Neither party wants a confrontation, but the Turks,
encouraged by the provisional acceptance of the new fees
by non-Soviet vessels, may try to impound a Soviet vessel
in Turkish territorial waters or to slow down the sanitary
inspection process for Soviet vessels entering the Strait.
The Soviets would then have to rethink their strategy.
They might look for economic countermeasures to force the
Turks to negotiate a lower fee.
11 January 1983
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EL SALVADOR: Guerrilla Activity
The insurgents, after two weeks of relative quiet,
have attacked a few towns in the north and southeast,
but government troops are holding their ground.
the guerrillas are being steadily resupplied by
air, and, and sea from Nicaragua. This will help them
stage another major offensive early this year, which they
are currently planning. The insurgents' timetable may be
advanced as a result of the current power struggle in
the armed forces.
PLO chief Arafat is due to arrive in Moscow today
for his first substantive talks with Soviet leaders since
October 1981. Arafat attended Brezhnev's funeral last
November but did not meet with General Secretary Andropov.
Although Arafat deeply resented the USSR's lack of support
for the PLO last summer during the fighting in Lebanon,
he refrained from direct public criticism. He recently
has spoken favorably about relations with the USSR.
Comment: The talks are likely to focus on the
Middle East peace process, especially the PLO's relation-
ship with Jordan and its stance toward the US proposal.
Moscow, which is uneasy that the talks between the PLO
and Jordan could lead Arafat to accept the US initiative,
probably will urge the PLO leader not to relinquish an
independent role in any peace negotiations.
Top Secret
11 January 1983
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ITALY: Reactions to Austerity Measures
The government's austerity proposals are heightening
tensions in the ruling coalition and drawing stiff oppo-
sition from the Communists and organized labor. The
cabinet has decided to forward to parliament its austerity
package, which is designed to hold the burgeoning state
deficit to $52.2 billion. The package has already prompted
widespread wildcat strikes and demonstrations. The
United Labor Federation today will begin a series of
four-hour regional strikes in preparation for a nation-
wide general strike on 18 January.
Comment: Prime Minister Fanfani has won the backing
of his entire cabinet for the package, but some members
of the coalition parties are unhappy about several of the
measures. In the face of continued labor unrest, a
number of deputies who normally support the government
may be tempted to vote against some or all of the package
under the cover of the secret ballot. A rejection of
the package by parliament almost certainly would set the
stage for a new government crisis.
Top Secret
11 January 1983
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JAPAN - SOUTH KOREA: Status of Loan Negotiations
Prime Minister Nakasone arrives today in Seoul for
a summit meeting with President Chun amid signs that
negotiations on the longstanding assistance loan may
have run into a last-minute snag. South Korean Foreign
Minister Lee says Chun wants a detailed written accord
on the seven-year loan package. Japan is offering a
general political commitment to long-term aid and a
verbal understanding on the terms but opposes breaking
with its usual practice of initialing aid agreements
only on an annual basis.
Comment: Lee apparently believes Chun blames him
for failing to resolve the issue earlier and that his
job is on the line. Lee warned Japanese officials
Nakasone would receive a cool reception if the problem
has not been resolved in final bargaining sessions.
SURINAME-US: Foreign Minister's Proposed Visit
Acting Foreign Minister Naarendorp's request for
a meeting with US officials in Washington next week may
be a personal initiative to enhance his acceptability
as a potential alternative to Army Commander Bouterse.
The US Embassy reports Bouterse may not be aware of
Naarendorp's request. Naarendorp, in a recent meeting
with the Dutch Ambassador, tried to disassociate himself
from the executions in December. He also claimed that
he favored a return to democracy and that he wanted no
part in Bouterse's new government.
Comment: Naarendorp, who is often cited as the
architect of Bouterse's leftward drift,
with close ties to Cuba and Grenada. His trip to Caracas
last month in search of aid and his involvement in the
recent expulsion of two US diplomats indicate he is still
an active member of Bouterse's regime. If he is acting
in an official capacity, he probably will ask for a
resumption of US aid. Any concessions he might make,
however, would not necessarily be considered binding
by Bouterse.
11 January 1983
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BOLIVIA: Cabinet Resignations
Longstanding rivalries in the government became
public on Sunday with the resignations of all cabinet
members from one of the three major parties in the coali-
tion. The ministers accuse President Siles's party of
trying to seize control of the regime. They also criti-
cize the President for his failure to form a coherent
domestic policy and to move against the illicit cocaine
industry.
Comment: Siles has a number of advantages in deal-
ing with his first crisis since taking office last October.
Most importantly, the lines of communication to the dis-
gruntled party remain open because its leader apparently
will remain as Siles's vice president. Moreover, Siles
may salvage the coalition by forming an alliance with
another party. The resignations also are likely to result
in some additional support for the regime from military
officers who regard the departing ministers as extreme
leftists.
Top Secret
11 January 1983
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CHINA: Population Control Measures
The government, fearing that population growth of
more than 1 million per month threatens modernization and
stability, has launched another family-planning campaign.
Beijing says the program is to be the most ambitious so
far. The China DaiZy warns that, if persuasion fails,
tougher measures will be used.
Comment: Earlier campaigns have been most successful
in cities and rural areas where government-enforced family
planning has included some forced abortions and steriliza-
tions. The State Family Planning Commission is emphasizing
education to reduce dependence on children as a source of
economic security, but it also may impose stiffer fines
in order to force compliance. If Beijing substantially
increases its efforts, including coercion, to enforce
limits on family size, the resulting antagonism is likely
to undercut the authority of local government and party
officials responsible for the campaign.
11 January 1983
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