NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE DAILY MONDAY 10 JANUARY 1983

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP85T01094R000100010200-3
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 14
• Document Creation Date: December 21, 2016
• Document Release Date: July 28, 2008
• Sequence Number: 200
• Publication Date: January 10, 1983
• Content Type: REPORT

Director of
Central
Intelligence
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Top Secret
Top Secret
281
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25X1
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Top Secret
El Salvador: Increasing Pressure on Garcia . . . . . . .
1
EC-US: Talks on Agricultural Trade . . . . . . . . . . .
3
International: Nonaligned Set To Criticize US . . . . .
4
USSR: Winter Grain Prospects . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
5
France-Singapore: Airbus Offer . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7
10 January 1983
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Boundary repreeentabon a
not neceeaaray authoritative.
Guatemala
Chalatenango
Cabanas
Sal;rvatdor
SALVADOR
SAN ~,. ~? ...~ ~,.ia
Numb
Pdcliq
Ocean
TEGUCIGALPA
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EL SALVADOR: Increasing Pressure on Garcia 25X1
Ozt%osition to Defense Minister Garcia within the miLr:tart~ io
.rowing as a result of rightist Armu field commander 0choa's
to accent, political exile.
Comment: The damage to military unity already ap-
pears substantial and will increase the longer the dispute
continues. The crisis could hasten guerrilla plans for
an offensive later this month. A Western news agency
reports the guerrillas attacked the capital of Chalate-
nango Department yesterday.
The quick development of sympathy and support for
Ochoa underscores the depth of disgruntlement over Garcia's
leadership and his widely criticized handling of the
counterinsurgency. The opposition to the Defense Minister
within the military is strengthening D'Aubuisson--his
major political adversary--who probably will increase his
efforts to oust Garcia.
Top Secret
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EC-US: Talks on Agricultural Trade
EC and US officials meet tomorrow to begin a three-month rc,,icw
of agricultural trade issues, but the Community probably will not
make substantial changes or concessions in its agricultural .policzy.
The three-day talks are the first in a series agreed
to last month aimed at identifying specific EC agricul-
tural exports that are competing with US farm products
and proposing ways to limit this competition.
EC-US differences over agricultural trade came to
a head at the GATT ministerial meeting in November. At
that time, the Community--led by France--rejected any
commitment to freeze or limit agricultural export sub-
sidies. Since that time the Commission has recommended
an average 4.4-percent increase in Community farm prices
for the 1983/84 crop year.
Comment: The meeting may help to reduce tensions
by compiling an agreed product-by-product list of agri-
cultural trade problems and possible short-term solutions.
EC officials may argue that the proposed small increase
in farm prices is an effort to curb the EC's growing
agricultural surplus--the main cause of increasing ex-
ports by the Community. They may even be willing to
reduce subsidies and increase stocks--reducing available
exports--if doing so can be presented as being for in-
ternal market or budgetary reasons and not because of
outside pressure.
Nevertheless, fundamental EC-US tensions over agri-
culture probably will remain until the Community agrees
to curb overproduction and export subsidies directly.
France traditionally has been the most vocal advocate
of an aggressive EC export policy for agricultural products.
Moreover, French policy may harden because French farmers,
who want even higher price increases, have threatened to
take to the streets this spring to protest EC plans to
limit production. Other EC members, however, are concerned 25X1
that French policy is becoming too rigid, and they may
begin actively to seek ways to limit surpluses.
3 10 January 1983
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INTERNATIONAL: Nonaligned Set To Criticize US
Cuba and Nicaragua intend to use the Nonaligned ministerial
conference in Managua this week to condemn US policy in Central
America.
The conference's draft communique, authored by
Nicaragua and Nonaligned chairman Cuba, accuses the US
of conspiring with Honduras to destabilize Nicaragua. It
states US policy is threatening to cause war to spread
throughout Central America.
The Sandinistas want to strengthen Nonaligned politi-
cal and diplomatic support for their regime. The Non-
aligned group commands a clear majority in the UN General
Assembly, and Nicaragua hopes the ministerial conference
will lay the groundwork for favorable UN action on Central
American issues, especially on the Nicaraguans' dispute
with Honduras. Cuba wants to put on record a condemna-
tion of US Central American policy that will be difficult
to overturn when it relinquishes the chairmanship at the
Nonaligned summit this March in New Delhi.
Nonaligned moderates, led by Egypt, India, and
Yugoslavia, oppose the draft communique. They see it as
representing Cuban and Nicaraguan policy toward the US
rather than a Nonaligned consensus. The moderates do
not want Cuba and Nicaragua to use the Nonaligned Move-
ment as a vehicle to criticize the US, and they intend
to demand major changes in the draft.
Comment: The moderates probably will be able to
soften the communique, but some harsh criticism of the
US is likely to remain. Nonaligned procedure gives Cuba
and Nicaragua, as chairman and conference host, consid-
erable discretion in determining the results of the meet-
ing. Moreover, the movement accords each regional group
wide latitude in defining Nonaligned policy on regional
issues, and Latin American moderates do not seem prepared
to challenge Cuba's leadership of the Latin group.
10 January 19&3-
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Soviet Winter Grains Region
1. tJ
Finland ,*w
Sweden ~ ,~~,, ? ~ w_ ,/
YPyd~
MOLDAVIA
SSR
Bulgaria CAUCASW
Sea
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USSR: Winter Grain Prospects
A severe freeze has further reduced prospects for 25X1
the winter grain crop. Areas hardest hit were in the
southern Ukraine, southern Central Region, eastern
Belorussia, and parts of the North Caucasus.
Comment: Spotty germination last fall and the cold
temperatures with a lack of snow cover almost certainly
will result in winterkill losses greater than the normal
15 to 20 percent.
10 January 1983
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The West European consortium Airbus Industrie has
offered Singapore Airlines 10 airliners on highly favor-
able terms. Six of the aircraft would replace Airbuses
already on order, but four would be competitive with a
possible purchase from the US.
Comment: This is the latest example of continued
aggressiveness by the French-led consortium in the world
airliner market, with South and Southeast Asia receiving
high priority because of the rapid air traffic growth
expected there. The A310 aircraft built by the consor-
tium has been the center of sales battles with US aircraft
producers in several nations, including Pakistan and
Thailand. A sale of the A310 to the Singapore state
airline would improve chances for additional successes
in the region. Airbus probably is offering its package
to Singapore at terms 2 or 3 percent below the market
rate.
10 January 1983
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