NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE DAILY WEDNESDAY 5 JANUARY 1983

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP85T01094R000100010216-6
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 11
• Document Creation Date: December 22, 2016
• Document Release Date: July 12, 2010
• Sequence Number: 216
• Publication Date: January 5, 1983
• Content Type: REPORT

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Director of
Central
Intelligence
National Intelligence Daily
T'S-
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Japan - South Korea: Aid Dispute Resolved . . . . . . . . 3
Kampuchea-Vietnam: Dry Season Fighting . . . . . . . . . 4
USSR-Vatican: Conciliatory Remarks . . . . . . . . . . . 5
West Germany: Setbacks for Moderate Social Democrats . . 5
Zimbabwe: Antidissident Operations . . . . . . . . . . . 6
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JAPAN - SOUTH KOREA: Aid Dispute Resolved
Prime Minister Nakasone will visit Seoul next week to announcc
that Japan and South Korea have solved their aid dispute, which had
dragged on since mid-1981.
The US Embassy in Seoul says Japan will provide
$4 billion in economic assistance over a seven-year
period. Official development assistance will be
$1.85 billion, with the remaining amount in credits
from the Export-Import Bank. Tokyo has agreed to waive
the normal 15-percent downpayment on purchases financed
with the credits.
Comment: Resolution of the aid issue concludes
one of several efforts by Nakasone to make progress on
longstanding problems early in his administration. Japan
made several concessions to solve the dispute, including
waiving the downpayment requirement on official credits.
For his part, President Chun accepted substantially
less than the original $6 billion requested. His will-
ingness to compromise suggests he is now listening more
carefully to his moderate foreign policy experts and
wants to take advantage of the current Japanese Govern-
ment's favorable attitude toward closer bilateral ties.
Although the loans are not critical to Seoul, they
will improve South Korea's debt situation and growth
prospects. In addition, Nakasone's visit to Seoul on
his first foreign trip will enhance Chun's domestic and
international prestige.
The resolution of the aid issue, the release of
leading South Korean dissident Kim Dae Jung, and the
resumption of Japanese-Korean talks at the parliamen-
tary level last month indicate continued improvement in
relations is likely.
5 January 1983
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I
Boundary representation is not
necessarily authoritative.
U
T.h alIdLaos
Gulf of
Thailand
100
KiNanbp
Nong Chan Resistance Base
Sisophin
VThr mese
aatt4cks
Kampuchea
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KAMPUCHEA-VIETNAM: Dry Season Fighting
The Vietnarnese have strengthened their forces near main
guerrilla bases in western Kampuchea, and clashes initiated by
non-Communist guerrillas in recent months suggest thez,will be
aggressive during the current dry season.
An estimated two battalions of Vietnamese infantry
supported by artillery counterattacked new non-Communist
insurgent positions near Thailand last week
The Vietnamese recap-
ure severa small vi ages near Nong Chan, a major
base of the Khmer People's National Liberation Front.
Over the past several months Front forces, based at
Nong Chan
have carried out several successful hit-and-run attacks
against nearby Vietnamese positions. The Front is short
of ammunition and manpower, however, and is unable to
hold newly gained positions.
Comment: Front forces would be no match for a
Vietnamese regimental-size attack against Nong Chan.
The Vietnamese are in a better position now to engage
the guerrillas' main forces.
A Vietnamese attempt to overrun Nong Chan or other
Front bases along the border could lead to clashes with
5 January 19V3
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USSR-VATICAN: Conciliatory Remarks
A Soviet television commentator on Monday claimed
charges of Moscow's involvement in the assassination
attempt on the Pope are intended "to set Catholics
against Communists." He asserted the effort would fail
and Catholics and Communists would fight together against
the "military threat to peace."
Comment: In taking this conciliatory line, the
commentator backed away from the intemperate criticism
of the Pope in Soviet media last week and implicitly
acknowledged Vatican efforts supporting disarmament.
The earlier, more harsh remarks may have been intended
by the Soviets to show that such allegations would not
deter them from criticism of what they consider to be
papal meddling in Eastern Europe. The latest commentary,
however, suggests they now realize their criticism under-
mined both their denials of complicity in the assassina-
tion attempt and their efforts to influence the "peace"
movement in Western Europe.
WEST GERMANY: Setbacks for Moderate Social Democrats
Local Social Democratic Party organizations have
refused to renominate the leader of the moderately
conservative "Kanalarbeiter" faction and the party's
parliamentary foreign policy spokesman as candidates
for the Bundestag in the election likely to be held on
6 March. Party regulations make it almost impossible
for anyone not nominated by a local district to win a
seat in the Bundestag. The spokesman attributes his
defeat to his refusal to moderate his support of the
dual decision by NATO on INF.
Comment: These actions will worry other moderate
Bundestag deputies and could influence many Social
Democrats to qualify their support for the INF decision.
With the election campaign about to begin, party leaders
probably are concerned over the extent of local opposi-
tion to the national party's policies. Weakened party
discipline could easily allow conflicts between leftist
and conservative factions to expand.
5 January 1983
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Zambia
' Lake
Kariba
A/ N 01 e6
R ei
e 9 i _~.e
Mozambique
H ARARE*
Zimbabwe
Botswana
a
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ZIMBABWE: Antidissident Operations
Prime Minister Mugabe has ordered military opera-
tions against dissidents in Matabeleland, the stronghold
of Zimbabwe African People's Union leader Joshua Nkomo.
The move is in response to a recent surge of indiscrimi-
nate attacks by dissidents. Six whites from farming
families have been killed and over 20 persons injured.
Comment: The operation--which the press calls the
largest since independence--is aimed at reassuring whites,
especially farmers, who are vital to Zimbabwe's troubled
economy. Mugabe also wants to placate hardliners in the
cabinet who have called for retribution against Nkomo
and his followers. The dissidence, however, results from
resentment of the government by the Ndebele tribal minor-
ity. Excesses by troops, as have occurred in the past
would further increase opposition to Mugabe.
5 January 19&3-
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