NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE DAILY THURSDAY 7 APRIL 1983

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP85T01094R000200010071-6
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 15
• Document Creation Date: December 22, 2016
• Document Release Date: July 13, 2010
• Sequence Number: 71
• Publication Date: April 7, 1983
• Content Type: REPORT

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Director of
Central
Intelligence
Top Secret
National Intelligence Daily
CPAS MID 83-082JX
7 April 1983
Q
Cop 2" 1
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Thursday
7 April 1983
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Contents
Nicaragua: Military Developments ..........................................
Costa Rica-Nicaragua: Ministerial Meeting ............................
Saudi Arabia: Resignations of Financial Officials ..................
Oman-US: Sultan's Visit ...........................................................
Ell Salvador: Guerrilla Sabotage Campaign ............................ 8
Poland: Church-State Relations .............................................. 9
Greece-Turkey: Foreign Ministers To Meet ............................ 9
Ecuador-Peru: Border Incidents ............................................ 10
Brazil: Economic Discontent .................................................... 10
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NICARAGUA: Military Developments
The Nicaraguan military attache to the US recently stated the
Sandinistas are relying primarily on reserve and militia units to fight
the insurgents, thereby getting the public more involved in defending
the revolution. Interior Minister Borge has said, however, that special
commandos from his ministry and border guard troops are playing
important roles against the insurgents.
Comment: Although reservists and militiamen have been doing
most of the fighting, more highly trained counterinsurgency and
border guard units are becoming increasingly involved. Together with
the Air Force's recent bombing attacks, these developments indicate
the junta is intensifying its military response to the growing guerrilla
activity.
Most of the regular Army apparently is being held in reserve
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7 April 1983
moo Nicaraguan\
,; Costa Ric
Boundary representation is
not necessarily authoritative.
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COSTA RICA-NICARAGUA: Ministerial Meeting
Recent discussions in Nicaragua between Costa Rican Foreign
Minister Volio and Sandinista Interior Minister Borge have satisfied
some of their goals but failed to resolve major differences that have
eroded bilateral relations.
Volio says Nicaragua promised to halt territorial violations by its
armed forces along the common border and also publicly rescinded
charges that Costa Rica is trying to undermine the Sandinista regime.
In return, Volio pledged to investigate alleged attacks by the exiles
from Costa Rica and reiterated his country's neutrality.
The discussions failed to produce agreement on Costa Rica's
right of navigation on the San Juan River, the scene of continuing
Nicaraguan harassment of Costa Rican tourist boats. Although Costa
Rican access is guaranteed by existing treaties, Borge insisted
Nicaragua would continue to exercise its sovereignty over navigation.
The Sandinistas contend that searches of Costa Rican vessels are
intended to thwart exile efforts to infiltrate Nicaragua.
Comment: Costa Rican President Monge previously rejected
Managua's offers to discuss bilateral issues, instead promoting
regional talks to focus on Nicaragua's export of revolution throughout
Central America. His agreement to a bilateral agenda probably was
intended to assuage critics of his tough anti-Nicaraguan policies and
also to put himself in a better position to push his demands for
regional discussions.
The Sandinistas are likely to point to the talks with Volio as they
apply pressure for bilateral discussions with Honduras over anti-
Sandinista activity along Nicaragua's northern border. Their concern
over insurgent activity is reflected in Borge's intransigence on the San
Juan River issue. If Nicaraguan revolutionary hero Pastora follows
through on his publicly implied intention to open a southern front in
Nicaragua soon, tension between Managua and San Jose probably
will increase.
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SAUDI ARABIA: Resignations of Financial Officials
The expected resignations next week of two key Saudi financial
officials will feed rumors of serious disagreements over economic
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policy within the government
the US Embassy have reported that both the governor
and the number-three man of the Saudi Arabian Monetary Agency-
the central bank-will resign. The resignations are expected to be
effective on 13 April, the beginning of the Saudi financial year and the
day the 1983-84 budget is scheduled to be published.
The Embassy reports that the resignation of Governor Qurayshi-
a highly respected technocrat who has headed the agency since
1974-is likely to be ascribed officially to personal or health reasons,
but that it probably was forced. According to the Embassy, the
resignations will add to existing concerns in domestic and
international banking circles about Saudi Arabia's ability to deal
effectively with decreased oil revenues and sizable budget deficits.
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Sultan Qaboos
Age 42 ... educated at Sandhurst ...
intelligent and strong willed ...
staunch anti-Communist ... popular
among Omanis as economic and
social reformer.
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OMAN-US: Sultan's Visit
Sultan Qaboos's major objective during his visit to Washington
next week will be to strengthen ties with the US, which he sees as the
principal source of tion against threats from Iran, South Yemen,
and the USSR.
The US Embassy in Muscat reports the Sultan will seek
assurances that the US is committed to Oman's defense and, in
return, will underscore his own commitment to the US-Omani military
access agreement of 1980. He will ask to buy advanced fighter
aircraft, attack helicopters, and air-to-air missiles. According to the
Embassy, Qaboos also is likely to seek increased financial assistance.
Disagreements over the pace of implementation and cost of the
US-Omani military agreement have largely been resolved.
Nonetheless, Oman's British Chief of Staff recently notified US
officials that the US may have reached the limit under existing
arrangements on the amount of US military equipment it can stock in
Oman for contingency purposes.
Comment: Qaboos is firmly committed to a long-term
relationship with the US and apparently is generally satisfied with the
way it is developing. Influential Omani nationalist advisers, however,
are putting pressure on him to exact a higher price for strategic
cooperation. The Sultan will be influenced by their advice but will not
risk Oman's good relations with the US.
Oman currently has no US-built fighter aircraft, and such a
purchase would cause London and the British officers serving with
Oman's forces to worry that the US was supplanting the UK's
influence in Oman. Qaboos traditionally has bought British arms. He
now has to cope with declining oil revenues, however, and his
partners in the Gulf Cooperation Council have agreed to help finance
only aircraft bought from either the US or France.
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EL SALVADOR: Guerrilla Sabotage Campaign
The insurgents' clandestine radio has announced a new campaign
of economic sabotage throughout the country, which evidently has
already begun with several attacks on roads and buses
Comment: The guerrillas have been stockpiling large amounts of
explosives and other weapons in preparation for a major offensive
this spring. They probably hope attempts by the government to
protect key economic targets will spread the Army thin, thereby
making individual units more vulnerable to ambushes and other
attacks. The insurgents' ultimate goal apparently is to erode public
confidence in the government and undermine the credibility of the
elections scheduled for December
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A Church spokesman recently told a US Embassy officer that the
Church is negotiating with the regime a law that, for the first time
since World War II, will give the Church legal standing. The draft law,
which the spokesman said might be ready next month, allegedly will
facilitate construction of new Church buildings, reduce state
interference in Church affairs, allow religious schools, and give the
Church greater access to the media. The spokesman said that the
Vatican supports the project and that such a law could become the
basis for a concordat between Poland and the Vatican.
Comment: The agreement probably is not as imminent as the
spokesman suggests, although his optimism evidently reflects the
view of some members of the Church hierarchy that they can work
with the authorities. Some government officials would like to tie the
Church closer to their efforts to establish a social accord with the
population. Many party members and the Soviets, however, would
oppose the projected concessions to the Church on both ideological
and political grounds.
GREECE-TURKEY: Foreign Ministers To Meet
The Greek and Turkish Foreign Ministers will use the meeting of
the Council of Europe on 28 April to discuss differences on territorial
air and sea limits, continental shelf rights, and NATO command and
control arrangements in the Aegean. Turkish Foreign Minister
Turkmen claims the two countries have agreed to refrain from
polemics before the meeting. Plans for similar talks last December fell
through when Athens backed out after Turkish aircraft allegedly
violated Greek airspace.
Comment: Both governments seem willing, after intermittent
verbal sparring over the past year, to ensure that this meeting is held
on schedule. Turkish leaders, however, appear skeptical about the
chances for progress. Athens probably hopes the session will help its
negotiations with the US on a defense agreement and with its EC
partners on economic cooperation. Although the meeting is unlikely
to produce any breakthroughs, the renewal of a dialogue would be an
important first step toward the possible solution of bilateral problems.
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ECUADOR-PERU: Border Incidents
The US defense attache in Quito reports there were two brief
armed clashes on Tuesday between Ecuadorean and Peruvian troops
on Ecuador's side of the disputed Cordillera del Condor mountain
ridge. One Ecuadorean soldier was wounded, and Quito has officially
protested the incidents.
Comment: The low-key treatment of the last minor clash in
January has provided a precedent. President Hurtado may raise the
latest incidents in his talks with US officials in Washington this week in
support of his request for help in resolving this longstanding dispute.
Violent labor protests-Brazil's first significant social violence in
nearly three years-reflect rising unrest among urban workers, whose
living standards are being cut? by high unemployment, inflation, and
austerity measures. Unemployed workers demonstrating in suburban
Sao Paulo this week looted stores, destroyed some property, and
clashed with police during an attack on the state governor's palace.
Local police reacted with restraint in order to avoid provoking the
mob, and the governor promised to reduce unemployment. President
Figueiredo, however, placed troops on alert in the city.
Comment: As economic austerity takes hold, worker
demonstrations and strikes are likely to intensify, with some risk of
more extensive violence. Figueiredo is strongly committed to the
transition to democratic rule, and he may try to reduce domestic
criticism of his economic policies by softening any new austerity
measures. Such a retreat, however, would be at the expense of
foreign investor confidence.
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