NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE DAILY SATURDAY 16 APRIL 1983

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP85T01094R000200010095-0
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 14
• Document Creation Date: December 22, 2016
• Document Release Date: July 13, 2010
• Sequence Number: 95
• Publication Date: April 16, 1983
• Content Type: REPORT

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Director of
Central
Intelligence
C~Ft~S/C1C
~-~e~ In elligence Daily
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Top Secret
Contents
Nicaragua: Expanding Insurgent Activity ................................ 1
East Germany-West Germany: High-Level Visit .................... 3
Japan-USSR: Continuing Differences .................................... 4
Spain-UK: Reaction to Naval Exercise .................................... 9
Brazil: More Urban Unrest ...................................................... 9
Bolivia: Threat of Famine ........................................................ 10
North Korea-South Korea: Political Maneuvering ................ 10
Top Secret
16 April 1983
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Top Secret
Top Secret
BoynEaryrepre9entatim iK y!.
not naoaseanly aulhoritalive?
16 April 1983
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NICARAGUA: Expanding Insurgent Activity
The opening of a new insurgency campaign in southern Nicaragua
under former revolutionary hero Eden Pastora will increase the
pressure on the Sandinistas. 0
Pastora declared in a letter released yesterday in San Jose that
his group, the Democratic Revolutionary Alliance, has begun to fight
against the junta. The letter included a warning to Cuban personnel in
Nicaragua that he will attack them unless they leave the country within
m
d f
h
ro
e
15 days. A spokesman emphasized attacks will not be launc
Ni
caragua.
Costa Rica. and Pastora's letter said that he is already in
Comment: The Democratic Revolutionary Alliance is the third-
largest group to take up arms against the Sandinistas. Pastora
reportedly still commands a fol~ g in Nicaragua, and this may help
him recruit new supporters.
Pastora is maintaining he will not join forces with the insurgents
fighting in the north. He regards their leaders as tainted by their
d
'
.
s National Guar
association with the late President Somoza
The insurgents in the north have scored no major victories, but
their hit-and-run tactics have kept up the pressure on the Sandinistas.
Pastora's third front probably will force the Sandinistas to shift some
forces to the south.
Top Secret
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Toy Secret
EAST GERMANY-WEST GERMANY: High-Level Visit
East German economic chief Mittag will use his visit to West
Germany beginning tomorrow to assess Bonn's views on bilateral
relations and to urge a summit be held this year.
Mittag-who helped to prepare for the summit in December 1981
between East German leader Honecker and former Chancellor
Schmidt-is the first high-ranking East German to visit West
Germany since the Christian Democrats came to power last October.
So far, he is scheduled to meet only with Economics Minister
Lambsd~'ff, but he has requested a meeting with Chancellor Kohl.
Comment: Mittag probably will seek to resurrect joint projects
that would help to alleviate East Germany's financial problems and
stimulate its slowing economic growth. He almost certainly will resist
West German demands to lower the minimum daily currency
exchange requirement for visitors as the price of cooperation.
The two sides are unlikely to reach any significant new
agreements. Cooperation will be impeded by East-West tensions over
INF, West German financial constraints, and the slowness of the Kohl
government to formulate an intra-German policy.
The East Germans probably would like to arrange a summit soon.
They would use it to seek economic concessions and to oppose INF
deployments.
East Germany is likely to be reluctant, however, to hold a summit
as the deployment date nears. The East Germans would calculate that
such a meeting would undercut their argument that INF deployments
will damage intra-German relations. A summit later this year would
help Kohl politically by demonstrating his commitment to continued
'
dialogue with the East during a period of tension.
Top Secret
3 16 April 1983
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Top Secret
JAPAN-USSR: Continuing Differences
The third annual Japanese-Soviet working-level consultations in
Tokyo this week reportedly were unproductive and acrimonious.
Foreign Minister Abe and other senior officials repeatedly told
Soviet Deputy Foreign Minister Kapitsa that the occupation of the
Northern Territories remains the main obstacle to improved relations
and that resolution of this issue is a prerequisite to a peace treaty.
The Japanese also demanded Foreign Minister Gromyka retract his
charge that nuclear weapons are based in Okinawa and stressed
~
Tokyo's opposition to Soviet deployment of SS-20s in Siberia
Kapitsa came to Tokyo with proposals for along-term economic
agreement, agood-neighbor treaty, and a guarantee against using
weapons. The Japanese were expecting these proposals, and they
wondered if he anticipated-anything other than a negative response.
The Soviet Deputy Foreign Minister also reiterated Moscow's position
that the current atmosphere is "inappropriate" for a visit by Gromyko
to Tokyo.
Comment: Kapitsa's visit was his last stop on an unsuccessful
tour of Asian countries. He seems to have added to the recent strains
in relations with Japan.
The Japanese appear to have used the talks to demonstrate their
firmness and to underscore how little success the Soviets can expect
in dealing with Tokyo if they continue to employ intimidation and
crude propaganda. Nonetheless, Moscow is likely to persist in its
efforts to drive a wedge between the US and Japan and in its
attempts to foment Japanese and other East Asian fears of militarism
in Japan.
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France
a~ao?a
North
Atlantic
Ocean
Stn3it A~9
of
Gibraltar
Morocco
*Madrid
Spain
25X1
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16 April 1983
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Toa Secret
SPAIN-UK: Reaction to Naval Exercise
Madrid has reacted to the arrival on Wednesday of eight British
naval vessels in Gibraltar's harbor by stationing three Spanish
warships near Algeciras to observe British forces. Prime Minister
Gonzalez described the move as one element of a position that is
balanced between "prudence and firmness." The Spaniards were
particularly irritated that some of the warships had been involved in
the war with Argentina. The presence of the h naval forces has
provoked widespread criticism in Spain.
Comment: The unusual stationing of the Spanish warships near
Gibraltar was designed in part to head off domestic criticism that the
government had not responded forcefully. The incident is likely to
harden both British and Spanish bargaining positions on the Gibraltar
dispute.
BRAZIL: More Urban Unrest
The deepening recession and the example of the recent riots in
Sao Paulo have prompted worker outbursts in other cities. Police
swiftly quelled street violence and looting during the past week by
unemployed workers in Rio de Janeiro and Fortaleza. In a televised
address, President Figueiredo promised firm action to contain the
disturbances but also hinted at possible federal policy adjustments to
relieve economic distress.
Comment: Brasilia is unlikely to be able to alleviate
unemployment sufficiently to calm worker unrest. Although no general
upheaval is likely, growing discontent among newly unemployed
workers may cause further sporadic disorders. New demonstrations
could help opposition politicians, businessmen, and labor groups in
pushing their demands that the government ease its austerity
program.
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16 April 1983
~.t~el~iti
p~agua
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Bolivia faces an immediate and catastrophic food shortage,
according to the US Embassy. Crops have been destroyed by drought
on the Altiplano and in the high valleys and by flooding in the lowlands
of Santa Cruz Department. Preliminary projections of the crop this
year indicate the losses may exceed 1 million tons. More than half of
the shortfall is expected to be in potatoes, the staple of poor farm
families.
Comment: As floodwaters recede, crops can be planted in the
lowlands, but there is no prospect of substantial food production in
the drought-stricken highlands before 1984. Small farm families
making up the bulk of the rural population in the Departments of La
Paz, Oruro, and Potosi will face near famine conditions during the
next year. Consumption of seed stocks and distress slaughter of farm
animals probably will make recovery of the agricultural system
difficult. The government has few financial resources with which to
cope with the emergency, and international relief efforts will be
complicated by limited food storage capacities at transshipment
points and inadequate transport for distribution.
NORTH KOREA-SOUTH KOREA: Political Maneuvering
Finland's expulsion of the North Korean Ambassador on
Thursday probably has set back P'yongyang's efforts to prevent
South Korea from hosting the annual conference of the
Interparliamentary Union later this year. The Ambassador had tried to
bribe a member of the Finnish parliament to support shifting the
conference from Seoul. The expulsion comes on the eve of an
important organizational meeting in Helsinki of the Interparliamentary
Union, in which the North Koreans hope to challenge the decision to
have Seoul host the conference. North Korea has lined up Togo as an
alternative site, and the USSR and some of its other backers are
threatening to boycott the conference if it convenes in Seoul.
Comment: It is not clear whether Moscow's decision to increase
its support for the North Korean campaign is anything more than a
gesture to placate Pyongyang. The Soviets continue to send
delegates to international events hosted by South Korea. Seoul views
the conference as important to validating South Korea's selection as
host for a number of coming regional and international events,
culminating in the Olympics in 1988. South Korea has launched its
own worldwide campaign to counter P'yongyang's challenge.
Top Secret
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