NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE DAILY WEDNESDAY 20 APRIL 1983

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP85T01094R000200010104-9
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 14
• Document Creation Date: December 22, 2016
• Document Release Date: July 13, 2010
• Sequence Number: 104
• Publication Date: April 20, 1983
• Content Type: REPORT

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Director of
Central
Intelligence
Wednesday
20 April 1983
Copy 2 R 1
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20 April 1983
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Top Secret
Contents
Central America: Meeting of Contadora Ministers ................ 1
USSR-Mongolia-China: Beijing's Stance Criticized .............. 2
Brazil-Libya-Nicaragua: Aircraft Turned Back ......................
Persian Gulf: Problems in Locating Oil Spill ..........................
Israel-Lebanon: Israeli Reinforcements .................................. 5
Thailand: Election Results ......................................................
Top Secret
20 April 1983
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CENTRAL AMERICA: Meeting of Contadora Ministers
The discussions beginning today in Panama among the Central
American Foreign Ministers take place amid increasing signs that
Nicaragua will be urged by its neighbors to agree to a regional
dialogue.
Several reports indicate that the meeting-sponsored by
Colombia, Venezuela, Mexico, and Panama-will be attended by all
five Central American nations. According to a Venezuelan official, the
Central Americans are to hold preliminary bilateral talks today.
Multilateral regional discussions are planned for tomorrow with all
nine governments present.
El Salvador has not ruled out an informal talk with Nicaragua at
the gathering but says it will insist on a regional meeting. The
Salvadoran position will be coordinated with Honduras, which has
feared its refusal to,engage in bilateral talks with Nicaragua would
Guatemala plans to oppose any one-on-one meetings, while
Costa Rica-which recently held two inconclusive discussions with
Nicaragua-hopes to push regional issues. Costa Rican officials
indicate these will include arms limitation, removal of foreign advisers,
control of arms trafficking, and secure frontiers.
Comment: Nicaragua's uncharacteristic reticence on the meeting
suggests the Sandinistas want to avoid making statements that would
damage prospects for bilateral discussions with their neighbors. The
Sandinistas may be counting on Mexico-which apparently
persuaded the other sponsors to hold preliminary bilateral talks as a
means of gaining Nicaraguan participation-to block attempts to
convene a regional meeting.
The Central Americans probably are aware that Nicaragua is
following a divide-and-conquer strategy. The apparent coordination
between El Salvador and Honduras, however, and Costa Rica's anger
over Nicaragua's recent seizure of a boat in Costa Rican waters
suggests they will be united in demanding a regional dialogue. If
Nicaragua-and possibly Mexico-boycotts such a meeting, the
remaining artici ants would still have a useful forum for voicing their
demands.
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1 20 April 1983
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USSR-MONGOLIA-CHINA: Beijing's Stance Criticized
The USSR has accused the Chinese of blocking an improvement
in bilateral relations, and Mongolia has blamed them for the lack of
headway in bettering Sino-Mongolian ties.
A commentary in Izvestiya yesterday reiterated Moscow's
rejection of preconditions for a normalization of relations and said
Beijing was creating obstacles, especially with "fabrications" about a
Soviet threat. The commentary indicated the USSR is satisfied with
the atmosphere achieved at the recent bilateral consultations, but it
added that the talks have not gone far enough to allow any firm
conclusions about the outcome.
In an unusual comment on relations with Beijing, Mongolia
criticized the Chinese for raising the question of Soviet troops in
Mongolia at the Sino-Soviet talks and for insisting that Ulaanbaatar
adopt a neutral stand between the USSR and China. The party
newspaper Unen on Monday stated that the issue of Soviet forces
stationed "temporarily" in Mongolia could be taken up only after
China shows a willingness to be a good neighbor to both countries.
Comment: The Izvestiya commentary reflects Soviet frustration
over China's continued criticism of Soviet policy and its refusal to
relax its conditions for improved relations. At the same time, it is
almost certainly designed to encourage a more forthcoming Chinese
attitude when Soviet Deputy Foreign Minister Kapitsa arrives in
Beijing next month on his annual visit to the Soviet Embassy there.
The Unen commentary, which most probably was approved by
Moscow, leaves it up to Beijing to take the first step toward improving
Sino-Mongolian relations, but it does not rule out the possibility of
some eventual movement on the question of Soviet forces in
Mongolia.
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2 20 April 1983
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South
Pacific
Ocean
*BRASILIA
North
Ala ntic
Ocean
Recife
Guararapes Airfield y4~
One C-130 detaine4!
J
South
Atlantic
Ocean
0 500
kilometers
Boundary representation is
not necessarily authoritative.
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20 April 1983
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An official Brazilian statement yesterday said the Libyan C-130 at
Recife was searched Monday and found to contain arms and
explosives. This transport and three IL-76s, which are being held at
Manaus, were bound for Managua, Nicaragua, with a declared cargo
of "medical supplies." Brazil announced that-having lodged an
official protest-it would return the aircraft to Libya with their cargoes
and crews in accordance with international law.
Comment: The move to search the aircraft may have been
spurred by a rash of publicity concerning the flights. The decision
simply to return the transports, crews, and cargoes could reflect
Brazilian reluctance to jeopardize important commercial relations with
Libya.
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Syrian troop concentration
Syrian area of control
Israeli troop concentration
Israeli area of control
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20 April 1983
1 I( Y i GOLAN
/ t ' j HEIGHTS
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not necessarily authoritative.
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Israel has been marginally reinforcing its positions in Lebanon's
Bekaa Valley since last week, according to overhead photography
and press reports. An Israeli Defense Ministry spokesman claimed on
Thursday that Damascus is planning a limited ground action against
Israeli troops in Lebanon.
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Comment: The dispatch of additional troops
reflect Tel Aviv's heightened
concern about Damascus's intentions. The reinforcements fill out the
three Israeli brigades in the Bekaa Valley and bring to 13,000 to
15,000 the number of Israeli troops in Lebanon. In the Bekaa, 9,000
Israelis occupy well-fortified positions overlooking approximately
35,000 Syrian troops opposing them, and they should be able to
contain a Syrian attack. Current Syrian military activity in Lebanon
and Syria appears normal, however, and there is no evidence that
Damascus has reinforced its troops in the Bekaa Valley.
PERSIAN GULF: Problems in Locating Oil Spill
The location and movement of the oil spill from the damaged
Nowruz platforms in the Persian Gulf have not been determined,
hampering assessment of potential damage. Engineering problems
have prevented use of the Landsat System, which was used to track
the Mexican oil spill in 1979,
Scattered air and coastal observations have
located oil patches off Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, and Qatar, and small
amounts have come ashore at these countries. The US has provided
governments in the region with a computer model to project oil spill
trajectories, but its effectiveness has not yet been verified.
Comment: Wind patterns are keeping most of the spill offshore.
The potential for serious economic and environmental disruption will
increase, however, until Iraq and Iran agree on procedures for
capping the damaged wells. Once agreement is reached, capping the
wells will require two to four weeks.
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Official Interior Ministry figures show the three partners in the
current cabinet-the Social Action, Thai Nation, and Democrat
Parties-substantially increased their parliamentary representation in
elections on Monday, while the Army-backed parties suffered
setbacks. No single party won a majority, however, and Social Action
leader Khukrit has asked Prime Minister Prem to lead a coalition.
Comment: Although Prem wants to leave political life, he
probably can be persuaded to head a new government.
Top Secret
8 20 April 1983
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