NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE DAILY WEDNESDAY 4 MAY 1983

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP85T01094R000200010140-9
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 14
• Document Creation Date: December 22, 2016
• Document Release Date: July 13, 2010
• Sequence Number: 140
• Publication Date: May 4, 1983
• Content Type: REPORT

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Director of
Central
Intelligence
National Intelligence Daily
Wednesday
4 May 1983
OPa
-Top Sewet
CPAS NID 83-105JX
4 may T983
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Contents
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USSR: Revised INF Proposal 1
Ell Salvador-US: Legal Defeat in Murder Case ...................... 2
Iraq-Iran: Attacks on Offshore Oil Facilities ............................ 3
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UK: Local Elections 4
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Warsaw Pact: Pressure From Moscow 5
Brazil-Libya: Delay in Return of Arms 8
West Germany-Nicaragua: Embassy Incident ...................... 9
Angola-USSR: Dos Santos To Visit Moscow .......................... 9
Libya-West Africa: Qadhafi's Visits ........................................ 10
Mexico: Holding the Line on Wages ........................................ 10
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USSR: Revised INF Proposal
General Secretary Andropov's latest proposal on INF is intended
to demonstrate negotiating flexibility in hopes of encouraging West
European support for a delay in NATO INF deployments
Andropov announced yesterday that the USSR is willing to
negotiate an INF accord based on equality of warheads rather than
.
just delivery vehicles. He did not address specific numbers
The General Secretary limited the offer to weapons in Europe-
including the UK and France-and stressed it would result in fewer
Soviet missiles and warheads opposite Europe than before SS-20
deployments began in 1976. He warned, however, that the USSR,
East Germany, and other Warsaw Pact nations will be forced to take
countermeasures if NATO proceeds with INF basing.
Comment: The proposal appears designed to regain the
propaganda advantage. By making an offer that is superficially similar
to President Reagan's call to negotiate on the basis of warheads,
Moscow could be trying to get the West Europeans to press for a
delay in NATO INF deployment to give talks time to succeed. The
Soviets may hope that such a delay would ould cause NATO's consensus
in favor of deployment to unravel.
Although the offer avoided mentioning numbers, recent Soviet
statements on NATO warhead levels appear to be deliberately
exaggerated. In an interview late last month in a West German
magazine, Andropov claimed that British and French missile forces
have more than 400 warheads-twice the number estimated by the
US. His warning that the Warsaw Pact will respond firmly if NATO INF
deployment proceeds suggests Moscow is prepared to field
comparable weapons in Eastern Europe.
The UK has called the proposal "a small step forward," and the
other basing countries will welcome it as a sign that Moscow
eventually will agree to a compromise. The Allies, however, will
publicly reaffirm the exclusion of British and French nuclear systems
from consideration. The UK and France remain firm on this point, and
thus far other basing countries have not pressed them to reconsider.
Nonetheless, West European leaders worry that they have yet to
develop a persuasive argument on these systems. They may try to
strengthen their position when the Special Consultative Group meets
'
shortly before INF talks resume in Geneva on 17 May.
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EL SALVADOR-US: Legal Defeat in Murder Case
President Magana claims he will pursue other means of
prosecution following recent judicial setbacks in the cases of those
accused in the murders of two US labor officials in 1981.
An appellate court has ruled that it does not have sufficient
evidence to continue prosecution of Lt. Lopez Sibrian, who allegedly
gave the order and provided the weapons for the killings. The
decision affirms a lower court findin of last year that enabled Lopez
Sibrian to return to active duty. 25X1
The Attorney General says the state has one year to introduce
new evidence or the case will be closed, although it can then be
appealed to the Supreme Court. Meanwhile, he is preparing an appeal
to the Supreme Court to overturn lower court rulings in favor of others
involved in the murders, one of whom is living in Miami.
Magana says he will push for additional appeals regarding Lopez
Sibrian. He also is considering invoking an emergency decree that
empowers the government to make arrests on suspicion of terrorism
or subversion. He notes that he would have to discuss such a move
with Defense Minister Vides.
Comment: The court's refusal to rule in favor of the state
suggests it again has been intimidated by extreme rightists. The
evidence against Lopez Sibrian is formidable and includes
confessions by the two who did the killing. The chances of successful
prosecution are likely to diminish the longer the case drags on in the
courts.
Magana, who previously has resisted suggestions that he invoke
the emergency decree, is concerned that the judicial setback will
jeopardize US assistance. Nevertheless, the decree previously has
been applied exclusively to suspected insurgents or their
sympathizers, and its application in this case would encounter
opposition from extreme rightists and some elements in the military.
The strongest objection could come from Vides, who might argue that
invoking the decree would threaten military unity and the prosecution
of the war.
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IRAQ-IRAN: Attacks on Offshore Oil Facilities
Iraq has expanded its attacks on offshore Iranian oil platforms to
include the Ardeshir field, apparently as part of a strateav aimed at
forcing Iran to negotiate at least a limited cease-fire.
Iraqi attacks
damaged three oil production facilities in Iran's rdeshir offshore
oilfield. Damage was laraely confined to the production platforms and
helicopter pads.
Comment: Previous attacks on the Nowruz offshore facilities
have resulted in the constantly expanding oil spill in the Persian Gulf.
Loss of all offshore production, including that from Ardeshir, would
not adversely affect Iran militarily or economically. Output from
offshore facilities plays a limited role in Iran's overall production and
is being reduced to help meet OPEC export limits.
The attacks appear aimed at bringing international pressure on
Iran for cease-fire negotiations. Tehran is unlikely to accept a cease-
fire, however, whether or not the attacks continue.
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The results of the municipal elections in England and Wales
tomorrow will help Prime Minister Thatcher decide whether to hold a
general election in June.
More than 12,000 local government offices are at stake. Thatcher
plans to meet with advisers this weekend to evaluate the results and
gauge Tory election prospects. With inflation falling toward 4 percent
and the Conservatives ahead by 15 points in a poll published on
Sunday, Thatcher is under strong pressure from most government
ministers and backbenchers to call the election now.
The British press is reporting, however, that Foreign Secretary
Pym, Deputy Prime Minister and Home Secretary Whitelaw, and the
party leaders of the House of Commons and the House of Lords have
urged Thatcher to wait. They cite the need to finish the legislative
program and-most importantly-argue that an early election would
imperil the Prime Minister's reputation for firmness of purpose and
disdain for opportunism.
Comment: Most of these contests are likely to be decided on the
strength of local issues or candidates. The results will not necessarily
indicate how the public would vote in a national election.
Nevertheless, election fever is rising in the UK. No matter who
wins, the Prime Minister needs to act soon or risk helping the
prospects of the Labor Party by seeming to fear an election or by
appearing indecisive.
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WARSAW PACT: Pressure From Moscow
Warsaw Pact Commander Kulikov is urging members of the Pact
to strengthen their defense establishments to deal with increased
Western subversion.
Kulikov, in an article in Pravda published just before May Day,
cites Polish Premier Jaruzelski's claim that Poland's sovereignty is
guaranteed by its alliance with the USSR and by its participation in
the Warsaw Pact and CEMA. He warns that attempts to disrupt the
Pact are unacceptable and asks the Pact's "frontline states" to
strengthen their armies, to improve their advanced equipment
inventories and military unit organization, and to resolve training
problems.
Comment: The timing of the article and the reference to Western
subversion suggest some concern about Solidarity's call for May Day
demonstrations. Romania probably also is being criticized. In recent
years Bucharest has opposed increased military spending and any
intensification of the East-West ideological conflict.
The recent meeting of the Warsaw Pact Military Council chaired
by Kulikov in Bucharest was characterized as "businesslike." This
suggests the meeting failed to resolve outstanding problems,
especially those relating to defense budgets.
The USSR has had little success during the past three years in
persuading East European countries to make costly purchases of
large amounts of modern Soviet equipment, including T-72 tanks and
self-propelled artillery. The East Europeans also have fallen behind
their own deadlines for production of modern military equipment,
largely because of high tooling and plant costs. Some members have
resisted adopting the latest Soviet organizational changes which
would require expanded peacetime manning at a time of impending
manpower shortages.
Kulikov's admonition that training problems in the alliance have
to be resolved may be in response to East European complaints
during the past several years that Shield-82 and other large-scale
exercises are too expensive. Moscow's allies reportedly would prefer
fewer such multinational maneuvers and more frequent and smaller
national or bilateral exercises
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BRAZIL-LIBYA: Delay in Return of Arms
The Brazilian Government continues to negotiate with Alitalia
officials concerning removal of Libyan arms seized two weeks ago.
The Minister of the Air Force says he expects an Alitalia Boeing 747 to
arrive in Brazil today or tomorrow to retrieve cargo impounded at
Manaus and Recife. The Italians have told Brasilia that they do not
know if the plane is to fly directly to Tripoli or to Mauritania, where the
cargo could be transferred to Libyan aircraft.
Comment: The Libyan military transports and aircrews still in
Brazil are likely to leave as soon as Tripoli confirms it has received the
cargo
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WEST GERMANY-NICARAGUA: Embassy Incident
The temporary seizure of the West German Embassy in Managua
this week by West German AID employees will delay any shift in
Bonn's policies toward Central America. The AID employees were
protesting the murder of a colleague last weekend by anti-Sandinista
guerrillas. They claim that the ultimate blame for the killing rests with
the US and Honduras for supplying arms to the rebels. They also
insist that Bonn's failure to take any action in the matter makes it an
accomplice.
Comment: Some Christian Democrats had hinted that the
government might eventually appoint an ambassador to El Salvador,
release some $11 million in aid earmarked for El Salvador, and block
funds slated for Nicaragua to put pressure on the Sandinistas to hold
free elections. Bonn now will hesitate to take such steps soon
because public attention is focused on the area. The West Germans
probably want to avoid new controversies that also would m licate
their ability to deal with INF and intra-German relations.
ANGOLA-USSR: Dos Santos To Visit Moscow
TASS reported yesterday that Angolan President dos Santos will
visit the USSR this month. This will be his first working visit since
December 1979. Although dos Santos attended Brezhnev's funeral,
no top Soviet leader met with him at that time.
Comment: The Soviet invitation almost certainly reflects concern
about Angola's discussions with the US and South Africa on a
settlement on Namibia and the withdrawal of Cuban troops from
Angola. Moscow probably also is concerned about efforts by dos
Santos to strengthen his position at the expense of pro-Soviet
members of the Angolan leadership. In addition, the Soviets may
express their unhappiness with Luanda's declining oil earnings and
consequent delays in paying for Communist aid. The visit to Moscow
in March by Mozambican President Machel and the visits this month
by dos Santos and Zimbabwean Prime Minister Mugabe indicate that
the Soviet leadership is paying more attention to southern Africa.
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Libyan leader Qadhafi's visits last week to Nigeria, Benin, and
Upper Volta apparently produced few substantial results. According
to US Embassy reports, Qadhafi emphasized his standard themes of
anti-imperialism and African unity, told his hosts they should imitate
Libyan governmental organization, and denounced Chadian President
Habre's regime. Qadhafi's hosts were annoyed by his calls for
revolution and by his arrogant manner. Nigerian officials, in particular,
were insulted by an anti-US diatribe that Qadhafi delivered at a state
dinner.
Comment: Qadhafi apparently offered little tangible aid. His
comments in Nigeria and Benin indicate that he has not abandoned
hopes of attaining the chairmanship of the OAU during its summit
meeting scheduled for June in Addis Ababa
MEXICO: Holding the Line on Wages
President de la Madrid this week refused to grant an early
increase in the minimum wage despite intensive lobbying by key labor
leaders. Even in the face of widespread distress among the rank and
file over falling real wages, 1.5 million workers demonstrated support
for the government during the traditional May Day parade.
Comment: The workers' show of support represents a small but
important victory for de la Madrid, who thus far has displayed
considerable political skill in managing the crucial labor sector. He will
face another difficult test when he decides on the wage increase
scheduled for July.
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