NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE DAILY FRIDAY 27 MAY 1983

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP85T01094R000300010019-3
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 13
• Document Creation Date: December 21, 2016
• Document Release Date: February 2, 2009
• Sequence Number: 19
• Publication Date: May 27, 1983
• Content Type: REPORT

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Director of Top Secret
Central
Intelligence
OCPAS/C.IG
National Intelligence Daily
Friday
27 May 1983
NGA Review
Complete
DIA review
completed.
Top Secret
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Contents
Libya-Chad: Increased Support to Dissidents ........................ 3
Brazil-Suriname: Planned Military Cooperation .................... 4
USSR-Mexico: Encouraging Opposition to the US ................ 8
NATO: Candidates To Replace Secretary General ................ 9
South Africa: More Terrorist Violence .................................... 11
West Germany-Romania: Agreement on Emigration ............ 11
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27 May 1983
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LIBYA-CHAD: Increased Support to Dissidents
Libyan leader Qadhafi evidentl is pre arin for more direct
support to dissidents in Chad.
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Libya has moved another six SU-22 fighter-bombers to Aozou
Airfield in the Libyan-claimed portion of Chad, bringing the total of
SU-22s there to 18. In addition, at least one TU-22 medium bomber
arrived yesterday at the airfield.
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Comment: The Libyans want to intensify pressure on Habre,
whose forces are still weakened after the recent fighting at Ouanianga
Kebir. Commitment of Libyan air support would end the dissidents'
claim that the current fighting in Chad is an internal conflict.
With Libyan aid, the dissidents would have a good chance of
overrunning the important northern outpost of Faya-Largeau if they
strike soon. Its loss would cost Habre vital internal support and
weaken his position at the OAU summit scheduled to begin on 6 June.
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BRAZIL-SURINAME: Planned Military Cooperation
The apparent success of Prime Minister Alibux's visit to Brazil this
week and Suriname's acceptance of military aid will encourage
Brasilia to continue its efforts to establish cordial relations with Army
Commander Bouterse's regime.
Alibux told the press on Tuesday that Paramaribo would look first
to Brazil for arms purchases. In addition to talks on military
assistance, the two countries continued planning for cooperation in
communications, agriculture, and mining.
Comment: Brazil's rapidly expanding arms industry can offer
relatively simple and inexpensive vehicles, light armament, and
aircraft. The Brazilians also have developed considerable experience
in supplying and servicing Third World markets.
Paramaribo probably will seek easy credit terms or a barter deal,
which Brasilia is likely to consider favorably. Economic development
projects will take longer to get under way, because the Brazilians are
waiting for specific proposals from the disorganized and inefficient
Surinamese Government.
In addition, some of the economic projects will compete with
similar ones reportedly being pushed by Cuba and backed by pro-
Cubans in Paramaribo. Bouterse presumably will try to get the best of
both offers.
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USSR-MEXICO: Encouraging Opposition to the US
A TASS report states that Foreign Minister Gromyko met on
Tuesday with the Mexican Ambassador to discuss developments in
bilateral relations and a number of international issues, particularly
the situation in Central America. Gromyko was quoted as saying that
the USSR has a "positive attitude" toward efforts by Mexico and
other Latin American countries to promote political settlements in the
region.
Comment: Moscow probably wants to encourage Mexico to
assume an even more active role in the region in order to counter
what it views as increasing US pressure on Nicaragua. In addition, the
USSR has consistently sought to exploit Mexico's opposition to US
initiatives in El Salvador and to play on the differences between
Mexico and the US over how best to restore stability there.. By taking
advantage of regional opposition to US policies in Central America,
the Soviets also may hope to strengthen domestic opposition in the
US.
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NATO: Candidates To Replace Secretary General
Foreign Minister Tindemans of Belgium and former Foreign
Secretary Carrington of the UK are the leading candidates to replace
NATO Secretary General Luns,
The post traditionally has been filled by a European from a
country participating in NATO's integrated military command
structure. Foreign Minister Futscher Pereira of Portugal and Foreign
Minister Flesch of Luxembourg are dark horses.
Comment: Both Tindemans and Carrington are widely respected
in the Alliance and have extensive experience in defense and foreign
affairs. Tindemans is likely to win support from the smaller members,
who fear great-power domination of the Alliance. He has ambitions to
hold a Europe-wide position, and he probably will campaign harder
for the job than Carrington. Once Luns announces his retirement,
there are likely to be other candidates for his position.
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The bombing yesterday near an employment office for blacks in
Bloemfontein-the second terrorist incident in South Africa in the
past week-is likely to cause Pretoria to retaliate against facilities of
the African National Congress in Lesotho and perhaps Botswana. A
South African security official said the blast caused extensive damage
but no casualties.
Comment: The ANC probably was responsible for the explosion
yesterday. The fact that the incident occurred at midday suggests that
the aroup is now willing to accept civilian casualties.
WEST GERMANY-ROMANIA: Agreement on Emigration
A West German diplomat in Bucharest says his country and
Romania have agreed to a five-year extension of the understanding
providing for the emigration of ethnic Germans from Romania. Under
the agreement, Romania has allowed at least 10,000 ethnic Germans
to move to West Germany annually for the last five years in return for
Bonn's provision of export credit guarantees. The Romanians say
they will cease collecting an education tax from prospective German
emigrants. Bonn also is ready to sign the agreement rescheduling
Romania's debt for 1982 and to loin other Western governments in
rescheduling its debt for 1983.
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