NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE DAILY FRIDAY 1 JULY 1983

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP85T01094R000300010136-3
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 18
• Document Creation Date: December 22, 2016
• Document Release Date: July 15, 2010
• Sequence Number: 136
• Publication Date: July 1, 1983
• Content Type: REPORT

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Director of
Central
Intelligence
CY#CY 285
National Intelligence Daily
Friday
1 July 1983
CPAS NID 83-154JX
Copy 2 8 5
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U1 J ly1983
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Contents
Chad: Limited African Support ................................................ 2
Poland: Troublesome Tax Hikes .............................................. 4
Costa Rica: Pressures on President Monge ..........................
Guatemala: Election Schedule Announced ............................
USSR-Syria: Concern About Syrian Intentions ......................
UK: Planned Naval Deployment .............................................. 9
Mexico: Corruption Charges Filed .......................................... 10
Japan: Defense Budget Debate Opens .................................. 10
Vietnam-Kampuchea: Security Crackdown .......................... 11
Yugoslavia: Dispute Over New Party President ...................... 12
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1 July 1983
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season r
highwaer
Nideria
Lake
Chad
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1 July 1983
Central African
Republic
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CHAD: Limited African Support
African leaders generally support President Habre's government,
but many are reluctant to speak out publicly against Libya.
The US Embassy in Libreville reports that pressure from
Francophone Africans led by President Houphouet-Boigny of Ivory
Coast has been a major factor in moving France toward forceful
action on Chad. President Bongo of Gabon has promised to issue a
public statement condemning Libya's involvement in Chad. The US
Embassy in Addis Ababa believes that most African diplomats there
would be privately pleased if the French intervened in Chad.
OAU Chairman Mengistu has called for a resolution of the conflict
and is considering sending a factfinding team to Chad. The US
Embassy notes, however, that his deliberate tactic of moving slowly
favors the Libyan-backed dissidents.
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Comment: Many African leaders are afraid of incurring Qadhafi's
wrath if they speak out. Others are hedging because they believe
Habre may lose in spite of their support-leaving them to face the
delicate task of patching relations with the victor.
Mengistu probably feels compelled to respond to calls by other
OAU members for action, but he may be reluctant to advocate any
move that would further strain his relations with Qadhafi. Mengistu
also is likely to recognize that there is little effective action the OAU
can take beyond playing a mediating role.
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The government is to implement tax measures today that could
hurt the economy and contribute to public frustrations, especially
among farmers.
The measures include long-planned tax increases on farmland
that the authorities say are part of a broader effort to increase
agricultural efficiency and encourage sales to the state. The
government will exempt farmers, for instance, from some of the
increases if they sell more to the state, but some farmers are likely to
threaten to reduce output in retaliation.
Although the government has tried to soften the impact of the
new taxes by increasing state procurement prices for some farm
products, farmers claim their costs will still exceed their earnings. In
addition, farmers believe they are saddled with a greater share of the
austerity program than workers, who will not pay higher retail food
prices until next ear.
Taxes on private businesses and on the wages of some 60,000
high-income earners also are scheduled to rise. The authorities claim
such increases will ensure that all segments of society share the
burden during difficult economic times.
Comment: Farmer discontent will further hamper the
government's efforts to achieve increases in agricultural production
and procurement. The new business and income taxes will reduce
incentives for private firms, many of which produce badly needed
consumer goods.
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COSTA RICA: Pressures on President Monge
Increasing public criticism of President Monge's austerity policies
and lackluster leadership portend difficult times ahead.
The opposition coalition, business leaders, and the press are
assailing Monge's failure to improve the economy and his poor
handling of recent public protests over utility rate hikes. The US
Embassy reports that the President's inability to prevent the
demonstrations and his decision to back down on the issue have led
to charges that his government is reacting to events rather than
controlling them.
Monge's National Liberation Party is increasingly divided and has
not fully supported him in the National Assembly. Several party
deputies have introduced legislation contradicting his programs. The
party's left wing reportedly may be rallying around an outspoken
supporter of Nicaragua's Sandinista government and critic of the
President's pro-US policies.
Comment: Despite the poor economy and difficulties in his party,
Monge is unlikely to rescind his austerity policies. He may have to
relax them somewhat, however, to allay public concern and ease
hardship.
If Monge does not exhibit greater legislative leadership, his safe
majority in the Assembly may be undermined. This could jeopardize
the austerity program and the shaky IMF agreement on which it is
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One of President Rios Montt's advisers, Council of State
President Serrano, has announced that the government intends to
hold constituent assembly elections in July 1984, according to press
reports. In conjunction with this announcement, Rios Montt also
inaugurated an autonomous Supreme Electoral Tribunal yesterday to
oversee the integrity of the political process. Meanwhile, the newly
imposed state of alarm has been modified to permit political parties
and unions to continue organizing. Press censorship and restrictions
on political statements, however, are still in force.
Comment: The establishment of an election date, as demanded
by his junior officers, will improve markedly Rios Montt's chances for
weathering the crisis. The President also is trying to calm the political
atmosphere by restricting his opponents' access to the media. By
permitting legitimate political forces to continue their activities under
the state of alarm, he may avert a further loss of legitimacy for his
government. Rios Montt still must deal with a divided military,
however, and rightwinq parties are likely to urge earlier elections.
USSR-SYRIA: Concern About Syrian Intentions
. A TASS report on. Wednesday said Politburo member Chernenko
and other top Soviet officials joined visiting Lebanese Communists in
decrying "diplomatic pressures" on Syria to change its stance on
Middle East issues. On Monday Pravda said Washington is trying to
win over Damascus with hints that Syrian withdrawal from Lebanon
could elicit a US initiative on the Golan Heights. Last month Pravda's
leading commentator on the Middle East noted that Saudi Arabia is
an intermediary between the US and the Arab states and also
provides funds to Syria and the PLO, as well as to moderate Arab
states.
Comment: Moscow is apprehensive that the US, supported by
the Saudis, might reach an agreement with Syria that would
perpetuate the USSR's exclusion from Middle East diplomacy and
perhaps facilitate a broader Arab-Israeli peace settlement.
Ambassador Habib's current trip may have heightened this concern.
The Soviets also may be increasingly uncertain about President
Assad's responsiveness to their interests in view of their inabilit to
persuade him to reconcile his differences with PLO chief Arafat
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UK: Planned Naval Deployment
An aircraft carrier and four other British warships will make an
eight-month deployment to the western Pacific and the Indian Ocean
beginning in September, according to a British defense official. Two
ships currently on patrol in the northwestern Indian Ocean will be part
of the task group. London says the purpose of the deployment is to
show the flag outside NATO waters and foster naval ties with friendly
countries.
Comment: The deployment represents a return to the Royal
Navy's traditional policy-interrupted by the demands of the conflict
in the Falklands-of sending carrier task groups to the Far East and
the Indian Ocean every year or so. The UK will emphasize that such
operations contribute to NATO's out-of-area efforts, but they also
support longstanding British political and economic interests in the
region.
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MEXICO: Corruption Charges Filed
President de la Madrid has added momentum to his "moral
renovation" program this week by charging the former head of the
national oil company with corruption. According to press reports, the
administration accused Diaz Serrano, now a federal senator, of
defrauding the oil company of some $30 million. It has requested
removal of his congressional immunity.
Comment: By moving against a close associate of former
President Lopez Portillo, de la Madrid has gone a long way in putting
his personal stamp on the presidency. Strong action on corruption will
build confidence in his political abilities and help reduce public
disgust over rampant corruption during the previous administration.
The ruling party's candidates in local elections this weekend also may
benefit from positive public reaction to the move. Although other
officials may be charged, the President probably will avoid a witch
hunt that would threaten his support and undermine the country's
carefully balanced political structure.
JAPAN: Defense Budget Debate Opens
Press reports say the Defense Agency will propose an increase of
8.6 percent in its budget for FY 1984. The Ministry of Finance,
however, reportedly will set a limit on growth of defense spending
next fiscal year lower than the ceiling last year of 7.35 percent.
Comment: This is the first round in the debate on the next
defense budget. The Defense Agency target would barely cover
equipment orders from previous years and required personnel
expenses. Even without expected cuts by the Ministry of Finance,
funds might not be available for additional equipment procurement
for support for the deployment of US F-16 fighters to Misawa.
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VIETNAM-KAMPUCHEA: Security Crackdown
Vietnamese military units have carried out extensive purges of
government and military officials in northwestern Kampuchea since
late May, according to defectors and refugees. Captured documents
indicate the crackdown stems from Vietnamese assessments that
members of the resistance and collaborators have infiltrated almost
all levels of the local administrations in Siemreab-Otdar Meanchey
and Batdambang Provinces. In late May the Vietnamese also arrested
more than 100 officers and troops in a Kampuchean Army division
stationed near Phumi Samraong. According to the US Embassy in
Bangkok, some 8,500 civilians have fled to refugee camps along the
Thai border as a result of the crackdown.
Comment: The purges attest to Hanoi's continuing difficulties in
developing competent and politically reliable military and civilian
cadres in Kampuchea. The insurgents' success in capitalizing on this
vulnerability, however, appears to be confined mostly to remote
areas. The purges evidently are limited mainly to sparsely populated
areas, and a prolonged exodus of refugees is unlikely.
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YUGOSLAVIA: Dispute Over New Party President
Opposition to the election yesterday of Serbian leader Dragoslav
Markovic to be president of the party Presidium next year could make
decisionmaking in Belgrade even more difficult. Under Yugoslavia's
cumbersome system of rotational leadership, it is Serbia's turn to
hold the top party post.
Comment: Markovic's election probably raises fears that the
Serbs will make new efforts to restore strong central power and
regain a measure of their past political dominance. Regional leaders
will be even more assertive in protecting their prerogatives with
Markovic as top party spokesman. This climate of suspicion will
reduce his influence over controversial issues-even on economic
matters requiring immediate attention-particularly since his term
lasts only one year.
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