NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE DAILY FRIDAY 22 JULY 1983

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP85T01094R000300010204-7
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 16
• Document Creation Date: December 27, 2016
• Document Release Date: July 19, 2010
• Sequence Number: 204
• Publication Date: July 22, 1983
• Content Type: REPORT

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Director of
Top Secret-
Central
Intelligence
National Intelligence Daily
Friday
22 July 1983
Top Secret
CPAS N1
22 July 1983
Copy 2 8 5
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Top Secret
Contents
Poland: Martial Law Lifted ...................................................... 1
Italy: Moving Toward a New Government .............................. 4
Spain-NATO: Socialists Mark Time on Membership .............. 5
Iraq: More Austerity Measures ................................................ 6
South Africa: Black Unrest ...................................................... 8
Nicaragua-Honduras: Naval Incident ..................... :................ 9 25X1
USSR: Disruption at Nuclear Reactor Factory ........................ 10
USSR-Madagascar: Reduced Soviet Presence ....................... 11
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The formal lifting of martial law-based on action by the Council
of State yesterday-is largely a public relations measure to promote
normalization at home and to improve relations with the West.
The government has passed temporary legislation to extend the
term of many political and economic restrictions. Although many
details are unavailable, the new laws are designed to curb workers'
job mobility and employment rights and tighten controls over
universities and students.
A parliamentary spokesman said the amnesty was partly intended
to persuade underground Solidarity activists to surrender, but added
that they have to give themselves up by 31 October and formally
renounce any future illegal activities. A government official said that,
of the 800 political prisoners eligible for immediate release, about 65
definitely will not be set free. The regime has not indicated how many
prisoners qualify for reductions in sentences.
Premier Jaruzelski also announced to parliament the dissolution
of the Military Council of National Salvation, but indicated that many
military officers will continue to occupy key government and party
posts. Parliament took no action to recall commissars from factories.
The Polish leader revealed that he will relinquish his position as
Minister of Defense later this year, perhaps as early as 12 October,
but pledged to remain as Premier until his "goals" are achieved. He
gave no hint that he is considering leaving his party post.
Comment: Jaruzelski's plans for relinquishing the post of. Defense
Minister should not significantly weaken his political standing. It
seems intended to mark the beginning of his transition to the role of a
civilian leader.
Jaruzelski probably will turn the Ministry over to a longtime
confidant, Lieutenant General Siwicki, and may rely heavily on the
hierarchy of national defense committees to ensure his policies are
carried out. Many party functionaries, who are already frustrated over
Jaruzelski's inattention and reliance on the military, will rankle at his
formal "welcoming" of the military into Poland's political institutions.
Top Secret
1 22 July 1983
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ITALY: Moving Toward a New Government
Socialist Party leader Craxi yesterday was designated to try to
form a governing coalition and appears to be able to do so.
Leadership meetings of the Christian Democratic Party and the
Communist Party this week revealed no intention to block Craxi. His
main competitor, former Prime Minister and current Republican Party
secretary Spadolini, has tacitly agreed to support a government
headed by Craxi. The US Embassy reports Craxi is willing to allow the
Christian Democrats, who favor stronger anti-inflation policies than
the Socialists, to organize the economics ministries.
Comment: The Socialists' leader probably expects that the
Christian Democrats, by controlling the economics ministries, will
share the blame for any unpopular austerity measures. The move also
could ensure the participation of the Republican Party, which had
announced that it would refuse to join a government that failed to give
highest priority to fighting inflation.
Craxi starts formal coalition negotiations today and may allow the
Christian Democrats to select a new Defense Minister rather than
retain fellow Socialist Lagorio in the post. He apparently wants the
Christian Democrats to bear the burden of implementing the widely
unpopular decision to deploy INF missiles.
Spadolini is a strong candidate to become foreign minister. He
would almost certainly favor the maintenance of Italy's strongly pro-
Alliance policies.
There is still some possibility that Craxi's attempt to form a
government could be disrupted by differences on economic policy.
Christian Democratic chief DeMita, like Spadolini, is publicly
suggesting that his support for Craxi hinges on the Socialist leader's
acceptance of a strong austerity program. Although Craxi probably
will reach an agreement with his prospective partners and form a
government, the same economic policy differences that have plagued
previous coalitions are likely to threaten his government.
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4 22 July 1983
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SPAIN-NATO: Socialists Mark Time on Membership
Recent statements by senior government officials indicate that
Spain's role in NATO remains a major issue, but Prime Minister
Gonzalez is trying for now to avoid a divisive public debate on
membership.
Earlier this week Deputy Prime Minister Guerra publicly reiterated
his personal disapproval of NATO membership and challenged
Socialists who disagree with the party's official opposition to NATO
affiliation to make their views public. Within a day the Madrid Socialist
Federation called for withdrawal from the Alliance.
Comment: More anti-NATO resolutions are likely in the near
future. At this point, however, Guerra probably will not be able to
force pro-NATO Socialists into the open. They are likely to continue to
adopt a low profile and avoid contesting NATO opponents in party
forums.
Although Gonzalez is convinced of the value of staying in NATO,
he has good reason to delay a debate on the issue. He cannot
plausibly call for a reversal of Socialist policy until progress on either
EC accession or the repatriation of Gibraltar allows him to argue that
Spain's international position has improved. Before agreeing to a full-
scale debate, Gonzalez will want to be assured of support from a
broad range of party and government officials.
Guerra has opposed some of Gonzalez's policies in the past, only
to support them in the end. If the differences between the two on
NATO prove irreconcilable, however, Guerra could lead a potent
opposition to Gonzalez's increasingly pro-Alliance position.
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5 22 July 1983
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IRAQ: More Austerity Measures
Baghdad isI (demanding additional sacrifices
from an already war-weary population as it struggles to finance the
conflict and meet minimum domestic needs.
To reduce outlays of foreign exchange, Baghdad has delayed the
issuance of import licenses for many nonessential consumer goods. It
also has slashed imports of raw materials by two-thirds for private
sector industries, which produce domestic consumer goods.
Oil earnings this year will reach on y
$7 billion, as compared with about $9 billion last year and $25 billion
in 1980. As a result, Iraq is likely to be left with a current account
deficit of $12-15 billion, even after substantial cuts in imports
Direct aid by Persian Gulf states and oil sales by them on Iraq's
behalf-providing perhaps $3-4 billion in additional revenue-will not
close the gap. With foreign exchange reserves of less than $8 billion,
illion in payments owed this year.
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6 22 July 1983
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South
Atlantic
Ocean
ent black
protests
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22 July'1983 `
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Sowet
Recent black
protests /'
CJohannesbu
I n d i a n O c e a n
Botswana
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The government is trying to contain and reduce growing tensions
in several black townships where demonstrations have already led to
violence.
Police used tear gas on Monday to disperse black students
boycotting classes in Soweto near Johannesburg. More than 2,000
pupils, supported by their parents, are protesting the firing of two
black teachers and the appointment of an unpopular white principal.
The US Embassy reports that these demonstrations follow a period of
greatly increased student activism in the township.
The government also is concerned that the 67-percent increase in
rents scheduled to go into effect on 1 August in black townships near
Durban may cause renewed unrest. Sporadic demonstrations, riots,
and vandalism have occurred there to protest the proposed rent
hikes, the murder of a local black leader, and the execution of three
convicted ANC terrorists.
Comment: The police in Soweto have arrested five students on
charges of leading the school boycotts. Student protests there set off
widespread riots in 1976, and the police will move quickly to quell any
new demonstrations that show signs of spreading.
The government probably will try to head off additional violence in
the Durban area by reducing or postponing the rent increases. Blacks
in these townships are already suffering from high unemployment and
inflation and would be likely to react violently if the increases were
imposed.
Top Secret.
8 22 July 1983
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NICARAGUA-HONDURAS: Naval Incident
Nicaragua is using a recent clash in the Gulf of Fonseca to draw
attention to the presence of US Navy ships in the area. Managua's
protest note, which claims its territorial waters were violated when
two Honduran craft attacked one of its patrol boats, also points out
that US ships are off its coast.
Comment: The naval incident-the first since April-will add to
tensions alona the border.
More incidents are likely as Honduras continues its efforts o in er is
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the arms flow from Nicaragua to the Salvadoran insurgents. 25X1
Too Secret
9 22 July 1983
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USSR: Disruption at Nuclear Reactor Factory
Top Secret
A report in Pravda this week indicates that a recent major
disruption had set back production at the "Atommash" complex in
Volgodonsk, which is one of the USSR's showcase producers of
nuclear reactor components. Politburo candidate member Dolgikh
visited the complex a few days ago to deliver a speech chastizing the
plant's management and workers. Officials in the ministry responsible
for negligence at the factory reportedly were severely punished.
According to a TASS report, the Politburo last week expressed its
concern over the dependability and safety of nuclear power stations
and problems at "Atommash" and ordered the creation of a new
state committee to regulate safety standards in the nuclear power
industry.
Comment: The disruption evidently did not involve a nuclear
accident, because "Atommash" is an equipment manufacturing plant.
"Atommash" plays an important role in the USSR's nuclear energy
program, and major production problems could seriously hamper the
Soviet nuclear program in coming years, especially if much of the
plant's imported equipment is involved.
Top Secret
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USSR-MADAGASCAR: Reduced Soviet Presence
The USSR has reduced its military adviser presence in
Madagascar from more than 200 to only 39 men during the past year
at the government's request. The remaining advisers are radar
technicians, communications specialists, and pilots and maintenance
personnel for Madagascar's 12 Soviet-supplied MIG-21s. The Army,
the largest and most effective of the Malagasy forces, now has few, if
any, Soviet advisers. Meanwhile, France has agreed to train Malagasy
officers in France and provide some equipment.
Comment: Madagascar has a burdensome military debt to the
USSR and has to pay the salaries and expenses of the advisers, who
help maintain and operate equipment that now is largely kept idle by
shortages of fuel and spare parts. The Malagasy are concerned that
the reliance on Moscow for military aid could restrict their
independence and hope to diversify their sources of assistance. The
Soviets almost certainly are eager to maintain an advisory presence
and may relax their terms for future military aid. France's resources
are overextended, however, and it is unlikeiv to rel3lace the USSR as
Madagascar's primary military supplier.
Top Secret
11 22 July 1983
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