NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE DAILY SATURDAY 20 AUGUST 1983

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP85T01094R000400010070-5
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 13
• Document Creation Date: December 27, 2016
• Document Release Date: July 20, 2010
• Sequence Number: 70
• Publication Date: August 20, 1983
• Content Type: REPORT

Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/01/17: CIA-RDP85TO1094R000400010070-5 25X1
Director of
Central
Intelligence
CY4 28
Top Sew et
National Intelligence Daily
Saturday
20 August 1983
CPAS NID 83-196JX
20 August 19 25X1
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Top Secret
Contents
Israel-Lebanon: Preparing To Redeploy ................................ 2
Nicaragua: Insurgent Advances .............................................. 3
Pakistan: Crackdown on Opposition ...................................... 4
Iraq-Iran: Possible Spread of War .......................................... 5
EC-Greece: Reactions to Papandreou's INF Proposal .......... 6
Top Secret
20 August 1983
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Top Secret
ISRAEL-LEBANON: Preparing To Redeploy
Israeli forces have dismantled their support facilities in the areas
south and east of Beirut and soon will be able to withdraw rapidly their
troops and remaining equipment to improved positions south of the
the US defense attache in Beirut reports that the Ad
Damur depot, the last of three Israeli support facilities north of the
Awwali River, was dismantled this week. It was the primary support
facility for Israeli forces in. the Beirut area.
Comment: Redeployment preparations to date lend support to
stated Israeli Government intentions to conduct a swift withdrawal of
troops to southern Lebanon. Once the political decision to begin the
pullback is made, the Israelis probably will need two to three days to
complete it. Although new facilities along the Awwali River will not be
ready until next month at the earliest, the Israelis probably will decide
to move before construction is complete.
The new line of Israeli forward positions will encompass the 40- to
45-kilometer security zone that was the basic objective of Israel's
invasion of Lebanon in 1982. The withdrawal almost certainly will be
accomplished by late September, when the weather becomes worse.
A rapid redeployment of Israeli forces will leave a power vacuum
in the Shuf and Alayh regions. As a result, intensified fighting between
Druze and Lebanese Forces militiamen may thwart the Lebanese
Army's efforts to establish control.
Top Secret
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Top Secret
NICARAGUA: Insurgent Advances
Anti-Sandinista insurgents are moving deeper into Nicaragua,
while sporadic incidents continue on the Honduran border.
Defense Minister Ortega has publicly acknowledged the
increased guerrilla activity in central Nicaragua, saying the insurgents
are better organized and supplied than they were during heavy
fighting around Jalapa earlier this year. Last week the guerrillas
damaged a bridge near the military base of Apanas, and repairs
reportedly will take a month to complete.
Comment: The apparent return of the insurgents in force to the
rugged mountainous area around Jinotega and Matagalpa suggests
they have strengthened their logistic support. They had to withdraw
from the area earlier this year when they could not support their
operations.
Top Secret
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Cities controlled by Army
Demonstration site
Province-level boundary
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Top Secret
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20 August 1983
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Top Secret
PAKISTAN: Crackdown on Opposition
President Zia's military government is moving forcefully to prevent
the spread of disturbances in Sind Province that were provoked by the
opposition coalition.
The Army moved into several cities in Sind on Thursday after
rioting remained widespread for the fifth day. The US Consul General
in Karachi reports that so far at least 11 persons, including several
policemen, have died and that hundreds have been arrested.
The rioters have singled out government property for attack,
including courts, railways, and road transport, and they have
threatened candidates running in the local elections scheduled to be
held in September. To try to curb the violence, authorities have
ordered stiff fines, floggings, and long jail terms for rioters.
Other parts of Pakistan so far have remained quiet, although the
press reports that crowds gathered in Lahore, Rawalpindi, Peshawar,
and Quetta on Thursday to watch opposition leaders offer themselves
for arrest. A strike has been called in Punjab Province for next
Wednesday, and the main Sunni religious party reportedly is
considering joining the protest movement this weekend.
Comment: Zia is facing the most serious opposition to his six-
year regime. His rule is not immediately endangered, and he and the
military leaders apparently are confident that the Army will halt the
violence. If the main Sunni party enters the protest movement,
however, the opposition movement could gain more momentum in
Karachi, and the demonstrations would be more likely to spread to
the key province of Punjab.
Apart from the Army, Zia lacks a committed domestic
constituency and has used external threats and a prosperous
economy to maintain public order. Zia has some support in Punjab,
but diverse opponents there could coalesce against him if they
The Army will support Zia as long as the violence remains
confined to Sind. It could not be counted on, however, if it is called on
to suppress widespread disturbances in Punjab, which is the home of
a large majority of the military.
Top Secret
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Top Secret
IRAQ-IRAN: Possible Spread of War
Iraq, coping with an increasingly desperate economic situation, is
more seriously considering attacks on oil tankers serving Iran.
The US Embassies in Oman, Kuwait, and Saudi Arabia report
Baghdad recently has indicated to the governments of those
countries that it may soon attack Iranian oil targets in the Persian
Gulf, raising Gulf states' fears of Iranian retaliation against them. The
Kuwaitis were told that decision depends on whether Baghdad
receives additional financial aid from the Arab states of the Persian
Gulf. A Saudi official recently told the US Ambassador that Riyadh will
urge the Gulf Cooperation Council at its meeting next week to discuss
the implications of Iraqi attacks on Iranian oil targets.
Comment: Iraq has been reluctant to broaden the war, but it will
be more willing to do so as other actions fail to alleviate its severe
financial difficulties. Iraq will incur a current account deficit this year
totaling an estimated $15 billion. The additional aid the Arab states
may provide in response to the Iraqi threats probably will not be
enough to meet Baghdad's needs.
With Tehran certain to continue preventing oil exports from Iraq's
Persian Gulf terminals, Baghdad's only hope of increasing its oil
revenues substantially is a decision by Syria to reopen the pipeline
from Iraq to the Mediterranean. Damascus, however, has so far
ignored Saudi and even Soviet requests that the pipeline be
reopened. Iraqi leaders thus are likely to conclude that they have no
choice but to attack oil tankers.
Top Secret
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Top Secret
EC-GREECE: Reactions to Papandreou's INF Proposal
EC governments are rejecting Greece's call for a six-month delay
in INF deployment. British, Italian, and Belgian officials have told
US counterparts their governments will rebuff Prime Minister
Papandreou's suggestion that the EC Foreign Ministers consider the
proposal during their informal talks in Athens on 12 September. West
Germany and Denmark are calling the idea unacceptable in letters to
the Greek Foreign Ministry.
Comment: Most West European governments are irritated at
Greece's unilateral initiatives. They also oppose discussing security
issues in EC forums. To limit the impact of Papandreou's proposal,
however, some EC governments may avoid responding publicly.
Top Secret
6 20 August 1983
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