NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE DAILY THURSDAY 1 SEPTEMBER 1983

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP85T01094R000400010110-0
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 20
• Document Creation Date: December 22, 2016
• Document Release Date: July 21, 2010
• Sequence Number: 110
• Publication Date: September 1, 1983
• Content Type: REPORT

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Director of
Central
Intelligence
Q CP.AS /C I G
National Intelligence Daily
Thursday
1 September 1983
Top -secrot-
P
eptember 1983
Copy 285
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Contents
Lebanon: Army Counteroffensive ............................................ 1
Israel: Choosing Begin's Successor ........................................ 2
Western Europe-USSR: Reactions to INF Proposal .............. 3
Philippines: Possible Violence Ahead .................................... 4
Persian Gulf: Results of Cooperation Council Meeting .......... 6
Poland: Sporadic Disturbances .............................................. 8
Pakistan: Unrest Continues .................................................... 9
USSR-Japan: MIG-23s in Northern Territories ...................... 10
Australia-South Pacific: Nuclear-Free-Zone Proposal .......... 10
USSR-Seychelles: Attention to Fuel Storage ........................ 12
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LEBANON: Army Counteroffensive
The Lebanese Army succeeded yesterday in regaining control
over most of West Beirut's main highways, but street fighting and
shelling are likely to continue because Muslim militias appear to have
retreated only temporarily into side streets.
According to the US Embassy, armed militia resistance has
subsided. The Lebanese Army reports that, in the four days of
fighting, 42 soldiers have been killed and 176 wounded. (S NF)
US Embassy officials say there is general calm in the vicinity of
the Embassy and in the hotel district, and the US Marines indicate the
airport area is generally quiet.
President Gemayel yesterday asked Lebanon's sectarian leaders,
including Druze leader Walid Junblatt and Shia spokesman Nabih
Barri, to join in a national unity dialogue. Junblatt, however, has
refused to participate in the talks, and both he and Bard have
condemned the Army move into West Beirut.
A TASS statement yesterday condemned the "US armed
intervention" into internal Lebanese affairs. It said that the USSR is
"deeply worried" by this intervention, which "must be ended," and
that what happens in Lebanon "is not at all immaterial" to Moscow.
Comment: Muslim and Druze militias probably will renew their
attacks on Army units. The militias also increasingly may target US
personnel because they probably believe that US assistance has been
instrumental in the Army's performance.
The TASS criticism, in effect accusing the US Marines of
unprovoked attacks against Lebanese Muslims, is the most
authoritative Soviet commentary on the recent fighting in Beirut. The
Soviets evidently hope to incite Arab opinion against the US presence
and remind Washington that Moscow is following the situation
closely.
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ISRAEL: Choosing Begin's Successor
The Central Committee of the Herut Party is to convene toni ht to
select a candidate to replace Prime Minister Begin.
The US Embassy reports that the eight Herut cabinet ministers
who met on Tuesday and yesterday failed to agree on a successor to
Begin because of Deputy Prime Minister Levy's opposition to Foreign
Minister Shamir. Shamir met with Levy yesterday to ask for his
support, but Levy is pushing his own candidacy and is holding out for
a decision in the 903-member Central Committee.
Israeli media reports suggest Shamir offered Levy the Foreign
Ministry if he would drop out of the race. The US Embassy says
former Defense Minister Sharon indicates he will support Shamir.
Sharon wants to be appointed chairman of the ministerial committee
responsible for West Bank settlements.
Labor Party chairman Peres, in a television interview on Tuesday,
said he believes a Labor-led government might emerge from the
current situation. Labor officials are in contact with dissident
members of the government in the hope of luring them away from the
present coalition.
Comment: Although Levy is generally considered in Israel to have
significant strength in the Central Committee, Shamir retains the
strong support of most of the Herut leadership.
If Levy fails in his bid, he almost certainly will emerge as Likud's
number-two man. This would give him an important edge in a
campaign to succeed Shamir, who is widely regarded as a transitional
choice.
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WESTERN EUROPE-USSR: Reactions to INF Proposal
West European capitals characterize the recent Soviet proposal
on INF, included in a letter from General Secretary Andropov, as a
small step in the right direction but insufficient to justify delay in NATO
deployments.
Representatives of major West European countries attending the
meeting tomorrow in Brussels of NATO's Special Consultative Group
plan to present a unified assessment of the proposal. They intend to
applaud Moscow's offer to scrap SS-20s as an indication of positive
movement. On the other hand, they still consider Moscow's insistence
that British and French systems be included in the INF negotiations as
the chief impediment to progress in those talks.
A spokesman for the British Foreign and Commonwealth Office
on Tuesday said that the proposal is not a fundamental change and
that the Soviets are still seeking to maintain a monopoly of INF
missiles while preventing the deployment in Europe of any
comparable US weapons. Statements by other NATO governments
indicate that they view the proposal mainly as propaganda aimed at
influencing Western public opinion as the INF talks resume in Geneva
next Tuesday.
US Embassies believe the proposal will not affect NATO's
position on initial INF deployments in the UK, West Germany, and
Italy. They report that Allied governments plan to rely on the intensive
consultation process in the Alliance and on the seriousness of
Western negotiation efforts at Geneva to maintain enough public
support for the scheduled deployments.
Comment: NATO hopes to demonstrate its solidarity as well as
its commitment to consultation on INF issues in a series of meetings
of the Special Consultative Group this fall. The meeting tomorrow is
to be followed by one in London 10 days later, and additional
meetings are being planned for the capitals of other basing countries.
Andropov's proposal is unlikely to have much impact on the size
of peace demonstrations in Western Europe. Nonetheless, some
speakers at peace rallies and some opposition parties in basing
countries probably will call on the US to reciprocate with concessions.
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The death of a student yesterday following Benigno Aquino's
funeral could lead to further violence in the days ahead. 25X1
Unrest in the university section of Manila accompanied a citywide
"noise barrage" carried out by opposition groups. Press and US
Embassy reports indicate that the funeral procession itself passed
without incident as government security forces kept a low profile. F-
Embassy sources report that many students had planned to use
the funeral to protest the government's human rights policies and to
demand President Marcos's resignation. The sources say radicals
wanted to reserve strong protests for President Reagan's visit in
November but agreed to demands for immediate action.
Comment: The shooting could easily lead to further violence.
Emotions remain high, and opposition groups will almost certainly
seek to capitalize on the student's death.
The government is likely to maintain special security through at
least the end of this month. The government traditionally calls an alert
on Marcos's birthday, 11 September, and on the anniversary of the
imposition of martial law, 21 September, and opponents of the
government almost certainly are planning protests for those days.
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PERSIAN GULF: Results of Cooperation Council Meeting
Foreign Ministers of the six-nation Gulf Cooperation Council at
their recent meeting in Saudi Arabia reportedly discussed new efforts
to deal with the war between Iran and Iraq, plans to resume diplomatic
relations with Egypt, and the internal stability of Qatar.
Reporting from US Embassies in the region indicates the war
again was the center of discussion. The Ministers agreed to renew
efforts to dissuade Iraq from widening the conflict, to try to halt the
six-month-old Nowruz oilspill, and to persuade Syria to open the Iraqi
oil pipeline to the Mediterranean.
A well-placed contact of the US Embassy in Jidda reports that the
Ministers agreed to raise the issue of Egypt's return to Arab ranks at
the next Arab summit, which is to be held in Riyadh in November.
They also decided that Council members-Saudi Arabia, Kuwait,
Oman, Qatar, Bahrain, and the United Arab Emirates-would resume
diplomatic relations with Egypt after the summit regardless of
opposition from radical Arab states.
In addition, the Ministers discussed the security situation in Qatar
following the discovery in late July of a small arms cache near Doha.
The leaders of the Council states are scheduled to hold their annual
summit in Doha in early November.
Comment: There are no indications that the Council states are
any more willing or able than they have been to take action to end or
even to influence the conflict between Tehran and Baghdad. They
almost certainly will not cut off aid to Syria to force the opening of the
oil pipeline from Iraq. Moreover, the willingness of the Council
members to reestablish formal ties with Egypt in the face of almost
certain Syrian and Libyan opposition at the summit is questionable.
The reporting on the arms found in Qatar is vague and
contradictory. The arms, however, do not appear to have been
intended for an tack on the Council summit.
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Sweden
N Bornholm,
(Denmark)
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Baltic Sea
The United States Government has not recognized
the incorporation of Estonia, Lama, and Lithuania
into the Soviet Union Other boundary representation
is not necessarily authoritative
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POLAND: Sporadic Disturbances
The regime will point to the small turnout marking the third
anniversary of Solidarity yesterday-as compared with last year's
demonstration-as proof of its firm control and lack of support for
the outlawed trade union movement. The US Embassy reports the
most serious clashes took place in Gdansk, Wroclaw, and at the Nova
Huta steel mill near Krakow. The police showed little restraint in
dispersing the crowds, estimated at several thousand in each city,
and one Western reporter claims a man died in Nova Huta. The
Embassy estimates the boycott of public transportation was
60-percent effective in Warsaw.
Comment: Union leaders probably will claim the transportation
boycott demonstrated public support for Solidarity. Activists may call
for more such symbolic acts of defiance as a way of maintaining
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I Up alauff us
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Boundary representation is
not necessarily authoritative.
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India
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The US Consulate General in Karachi reports that Army units
were deployed on Tuesday to cope with continuing disturbances in
four districts of Sind Province and that senior police officers in four
cities have been relieved of their duties. Authorities are increasingly
concerned that local religious leaders are backing the agitation. The
president of a powerful leftist labor union in Karachi offered herself
for arrest on Tuesday, and opposition leaders have called a
provincewide general strike for Saturday.
Comment: The increased role of the Army, which is composed
mainly of Punjabi and Pathan troops, could further inflame nationalist
sentiment among Sindhis. Rural religious leaders probably will
support the general strike, but urban clerics in Hyderabad and
Karachi will not. Although labor is divided, leftist unions may be able
to disrupt the port of Karachi and the national steel mill there. If
successful, the general strike would encourage President Zia's
political foes in other provinces.
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North
Korea *P,YONfiYANG
\ Demarcation Line
*SEOUL
South
Korea
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Boundary representation is
not necessarily authoritative.
Kamchatka
Peninsula
MIG-23s deployed V
22 August /A~'Ustrov Iturup
ai Northern
/Territories
(administered by Soviet Union.
claimed by Japan)
Deployment of US F-16s
, proposed for 1985
1 September 1983
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North
Pacific
Ocean
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USSR-JAPAN: MIG-23s in Northern Territories
Soviet MIG-23 aircraft are
stationed on the island of Ostrov Iturup, which is claimed by Japan. A
spokesman of the Japanese Ministry of Foreign Affairs yesterday said
Japan will protest the arrival of at least 10 of these aircraft on
22 August, if they remain there
Comment: This is the first assignment of these more advanced
aircraft in the Northern Territories. The Soviets have been improving
the facilities on Ostrov Iturup for over a year, and MIG-21s were
based there from late 1982 until last May. Moscow, however, may
describe the MIG-23s as a response to the announcement last fall
that US F-16s are to be stationed at Misawa in 1985.
AUSTRALIA-SOUTH PACIFIC: Nuclear-Free-Zone Proposal
Australia failed to secure a consensus in support of its proposal
for a nuclear-free zone in the South Pacific at the annual meeting this
week of the South Pacific Forum. Several of the island nations
objected to a provision for free navigation of nuclear-powered and
nuclear-armed warships and military aircraft. They restated their
"sovereign right" to impose bans on visits by warships.
Comment: Australia, which remains undeterred by requests from
the US and New Zealand not to pursue the nuclear-zone proposal,
apparently aggravated regional antinuclear sentiment. The problem of
port bans had been eased a month ago, when Fiji lifted its restrictions
on visits by nuclear vessels. Despite the rebuff, the government
continues to give strong support to the proposal. Foreign Minister
Hayden has served notice that Canberra will try to find a formula
acceptable to the islanders before the next session of the Forum next
year.
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USSR-SEYCHELLES: Attention to Fuel Storage
The US Embassy reports Soviet technicians recently arrived in the
Seychelles to look into the storage of diesel fuel there. The Soviets
are estimating costs of restoring five old naval fuel tanks on an island
in Victoria harbor. Defense Minister Berlouis told the Embassy the
fuel would be for the Seychelles Navy alone and categorically denied
that Soviet ships would refuel at the islands. Soviet combatants
frequently have responded to President Rene's requests for a show of
support, and Soviet merchant ships have delivered arms to the
islands as recently as July.
Comment: Despite Berlouis's denial, the USSR may be seeking
access to at least part of the 20,000-ton fuel storage facility in the
Seychelles for refueling its merchant or naval ships. Moscow also
might seek to build storage facilities for aviation fuel on the
Seychelles. Soviet military transport aircraft refueled in the Seychelles
for the first time in February, and they subsequently made several
flights to the Indian Ocean and southern Africa area.
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