NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE DAILY MONDAY 12 SEPTEMBER 1983

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP85T01094R000400010142-5
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 16
• Document Creation Date: December 22, 2016
• Document Release Date: July 21, 2010
• Sequence Number: 142
• Publication Date: September 12, 1983
• Content Type: REPORT

Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/02/07 :CIA-RDP85T01094R000400010142-5
Central
Intelligence
mop-seeret-
National Intelligence Daily
Monday
12 September 1983
f-
ep em er
copy ~ R ~,
Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/02/07 :CIA-RDP85T01094R000400010142-5
 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/02/07 :CIA-RDP85T01094R000400010142-5
Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/02/07 :CIA-RDP85T01094R000400010142-5
 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/02/07 :CIA-RDP85T01094R000400010142-5
~ vp aecrei
Contents
Lebanon: Military Standoff Continues .................................... 1
Chile: Anniversary Speech ...................................................... 2
UK: Social Democratic Meeting .............................................. 3
USSR-Eastern Europe: Soviet Ground Forces ......................
USSR: Industrial Automation ..................................................
Jamaica: Support for Seaga Down ..........................................
Costa Rica: Nicaraguan Refugees Increasing ........................
China: Crackdown on Crime .................................................... 9
Special Analysis
Israel-Lebanon: Tel Aviv Stands Back .................................... 10
Top Secret
Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/02/07 :CIA-RDP85T01094R000400010142-5
 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/02/07 :CIA-RDP85T01094R000400010142-5
~ vp aecrei
Mediterranean Sea ? .~ ~ Kale ..
fi
. ~.
,.. ~ 1,
,,;~ / y ~,.~ CJ j, ~.
Beirut
International
Airport
a `Saq al Gha'~AI~Qamm~atiyah '~ 1 ~ /I ~
'L":'. ~is~ C14CCdGGi
~~
Y ~~ ~
Top Secret
Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/02/07 :CIA-RDP85T01094R000400010142-5
 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/02/07 :CIA-RDP85T01094R000400010142-5
Top Secret
LEBANON: Military Standoff Continues
The Lebanese Army this weekend fought off Druze and Palestinian
attempts to gain control of the strategic town of Suq al Gharb, but,
although the Army appears to be holding its own, defeat remains
possible and could cause the collapse of President Gemayel's
government.
According to the Lebanese Government, Iranians and Palestinian
groups participated in the attack against Suq al Gharb.
The Army yesterday sent a tank company and an additional
infantry battalion and replaced one of the previously committed
battalions to reinforce its positions at Suq al Gharb and at nearby
AI Qammatiyah.
Druze and Palestinian forces based in Alayh yesterday attacked
Army positions in Arayya on the Beirut-Damascus Highway. Druze
forces continue to besiege the Christian village of Dayr al Qamar and
as recently as yesterday have not allowed the International Red Cross
to deliver food to the 20,000 to 25,000 refugees stranded there.
Diplomatic efforts to arrange acease-fire foundered this
weekend. The major sticking point remains Syrian and Druze
demands that the Lebanese Army withdraw from its positions in the
Shuf and Alayh Districts.
Comment: Syrian officers may be participating in the attacks
against Suq al Gharb and Arayya. Palestinian units-unlike the
Druze-have the training to engage regular troops effectively, and
they are probably spearheading the attacks against Army positions.
The Army will probably be able to fend off the attack at Arayya,
but its units are under considerable pressure at Suq al Gharb. A
defeat there would allow Druze and Palestinian units to isolate Beirut
from much of the country and could prompt Shia leader Nabih Barri
to commit his forces against Army units in Beirut.
Top Secret
1 12 September 1983
25X1
25X1
25X1
5X1
25X1
Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/02/07 :CIA-RDP85T01094R000400010142-5
 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/02/07 :CIA-RDP85T01094R000400010142-5
Top Secret
CHILE: Anniversary Speech
President Pinochet's nonconfrontational 10th anniversary speech
yesterday and the moderate level of violence through the weekend
probably will permit renewed talks between the government and the
democratic opposition.
Pinochet defended the timetable included in the constitution of
1980 that calls for restoring civilian rule in 1989, but he confirmed the
possibility of an amendment that would allow election of a congress
before then. He also acknowledged that Interior Minister Jarpa would
continue the dialogue with the opposition Democratic Alliance.
Most of the violence, which press reports indicate has left about
nine dead, occurred in the slums of Santiago. Copperworkers union
chief Rodolfo Seguel was jailed, but no other prominent opposition
figures were arrested.
Comment: The government, which refrained from calling on the
military to handle security, and the democratic opposition will both
gain credibilit for havin held down violence. Nevertheless, the jailing
of Seguel carry the
potential to delay or disrupt resumption of talks on a democratic
opening.
Top Secret
2 12 September 1983
Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/02/07 :CIA-RDP85T01094R000400010142-5
25X1
25X1
 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/02/07 :CIA-RDP85T01094R000400010142-5
Top Secret
UK: Social Democratic Meeting
The British Social Democratic Party, which began its annual
conference yesterday, is debating its Alliance with the Liberals and
calling for support from moderate voters-particularly trade
unionists-who are dissatisfied with Labor's leftward turn.
Comment: The conference this year marks the first appearance
of former Foreign Secretary David Owen as party leader. Polls show
Owen to be second oc~ly to Liberal Party leader Steel as the UK's
most popular politician, and he will use the conference to strengthen
his standing further. He also is trying to revive enthusiasm among
Social Democratic activists in an effort to reverse the decline in party
membership and deal with financial difficulties.
Owen faces conflicting pressures, however, in discussing relations
with the Liberals. Some Social Democrats suspect Steel wants to
achieve primacy over Owen, and they are haggling with Liberals about
the selection of candidates for local government and European
Parliament elections next year. Other Social Democrats want to
merge with the Liberals, a process already under way in some
localities but opposed by Owen, who wants the Social Democratic
Party to have a separate identity.
The conference yesterday endorsed Owen's views. Despite his
rivalry with Steel, Owen realizes that cooperation between the two
parties is essential and that Steel is the Liberal most amenable to the
Alliance.
The Social Democratic leader will use the conference to warn the
Liberals, who meet next week, that any effort to undercut Steel's
authority or endorse unilateral nuclear disarmament will severely
strain relations between the two parties. It would damage chances to
supplant Labor as the main challenger to the Tories.
Top Secret
3 12 September 1983
Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/02/07 :CIA-RDP85T01094R000400010142-5
 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/02/07 :CIA-RDP85T01094R000400010142-5
Toa Secret
The Soviets are reorganizing and modernizing their ground forces
in Eastern Europe to provide them with more balanced capabilities
against antitank defenses, but the process is widening the gap
between the capabilities of their forces and those of most of their
allies.
Comment: These changes are designed to ensure the dominance
of the tank on the battlefield by providing Soviet commanders with
support to suppress antitank defenses. Some artillery battalions
assigned to Soviet tank regiments already are employing self-
propelled artillery. which has oreater range than NATO's antitank
weapons.
These improvements will further widen the gap in operational
capabilities between the Soviet forces and those of most other
Warsaw Pact countries. The East Europeans, who would play a critical
role in initial operations against NATO, have not been able to afford
all of the improvement programs desired by Moscow. Several of these
countries-most notably Poland-still are equipped primarily with
World War II-vintage artillery, which they probably will use well into
the 1990s.
Top Secret
4 12 September 1983
Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/02/07 :CIA-RDP85T01094R000400010142-5
25X1
25X1
25X1
25X1
 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/02/07 :CIA-RDP85T01094R000400010142-5
Top Secret
The Soviets plan to improve both military and civilian production
by integrating robots with automated machine tools to create versatile
manufacturing systems.
Pravda reports that the Politburo last month released a draft
resolution calling for the adoption of advanced production processes
by industry. High-efficiency machine tools, robot complexes, and
computers are to be employed to create flexible automatic
manufacturing facilities and automatic designing systems.
Comment: Soviet authorities evidently recognize the value of
using computers to integrate robots and machine tools into flexible
manufacturing systems. Such systems can make high-technology
products efficiently in limited quantities, and they can be changed
rapidly and inexpensively by reprograming the computers to make
other similar items. The Soviets realize that the flexible automation
made possible by reprogrammable robots is the key to achieving
major increases in the production of batches of items.
Top Secret
5 12 September 1983
Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/02/07 :CIA-RDP85T01094R000400010142-5
25X1
25X1
 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/02/07 :CIA-RDP85T01094R000400010142-5
Top Secret
JAMAICA: Support for Seaga Down
Reliable public opinion polls taken late last month show
opposition leader Manley and his People's National Party to be
leading in 24 of 36 parliamentary constituencies that were covered.
Although Seaga is urging incumbents
to spend more time in their constituencies, their efforts are hampered
by a lack of funds and by the government's inability to finance local
vote-getting projects. Manley's party, however, also is suffering from
organizational problems, and the former Prime Minister's lead in the
polls is primarily a result of voter dissatisfaction with Seaga, rather
than a strong belief that the opposition can resolve Jamaica's
economic problems.
Comment: Seaga first fell behind in the polls last fall, and his
position has grown worse as the island's economy has slumped. He is
not likely to get any good economic news soon. A growing shortage of
foreign exchange, which is causing inflation and unemployment to
rise, is being made worse by Seaga's insistence on retaining the
costly subsidy on gasoline.
COSTA RICA: Nicaraguan Refugees Increasing
A recent surge of refugees from Nicaragua is causing concern in
San Jose. The government's two refugee camps near the Nicaraguan
border already contain an estimated 1,400 people. If the present rate
continues, the camps are expected to be full within the month,
according to sources of the US Embassy. The government reportedly
has been seeking to establish at least two other camps farther south
in order to relocate Nicaraguans away from the border area, but
efforts have been hampered by a lack of funds or suitable land.
Comment: Government officials probably worry that a massive
influx of Nicaraguan refugees would contribute to Costa Rica's
already severe unemployment problem. They may also be concerned
about the possible infiltration by Sandinista agents into the camps,
which could lead to sabotage incidents. The recent rise in refugees
may in part reflect Nicaragua's new military conscription law as well
as heightened military action in southern Nicaragua by anti-
Top Secret
6 12 September 1983
Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/02/07 :CIA-RDP85T01094R000400010142-5
25X1
Z~X1
 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/02/07 :CIA-RDP85T01094R000400010142-5
Q
Next 1 Page(s) In Document Denied
Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/02/07 :CIA-RDP85T01094R000400010142-5
 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/02/07 :CIA-RDP85T01094R000400010142-5
i op secret
The Sixth National People's Congress Standing Committee
concluded its second session early this month with announcement of
harsher penalties and swifter sentencing for violent criminals. The
move follows a vigorous anticrime campaign that included heavy
media coverage, arrest and sentencing drives, and public executions
of a number of common criminals throughout China. The US Embassy
notes, however, that high-level cadres and their families continue to
be safe from prosecution.
Comment: The severe measures reflect the leadership's concern
over what it views as a breakdown in public order, symptomized by an
increasing crime rate and numerous revelations of official
misconduct. Beijing blames the situation on influences of the Cultural
Revolution and corrupt ideas from the West. Deng Xiaoping and his
supporters need to control corruption to forestall attacks on their
policies of economic liberalization.
Top Secret
Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/02/07 :CIA-RDP85T01094R000400010142-5
 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/02/07 :CIA-RDP85T01094R000400010142-5
i op ~ecrei
Top Secret
Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/02/07 :CIA-RDP85T01094R000400010142-5
 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/02/07 :CIA-RDP85T01094R000400010142-5
Top Secret
Special Analysis
Israel has decided, for the moment at least, to concentrate its
efforts on building workable security arrangements in southern
Lebanon and on avoiding involvement in the current fighting. Contacts
with key groups north of the Awwali River-particularly with the Druze
and Phalange-will continue. Israel, however, will now look to the US
fo take the lead in shoring up President Gemayel's government and
reducing Syrian influence. A major Syrian political victory-
particularlysuccess in getting the Lebanese to void the Israeli-
Lebanese accord-or a return of armed Palestinians to Beirut would
be difficult for the Israelis to accept. Either development probably
would cause them to reexamine their policy.
Israeli disillusionment with Gemayel and other Christian leaders
has been growing for some time. Gemayel's refusal to meet with
senior Israeli officials and his hesitancy in deploying the Army to stop
the fighting in the Shuf mountain region have convinced most Israelis
that prospects for his government are dim. They have concluded that
their hopes for a strong central government capable of implementing
the May accords are misplaced.
Political uncertainty in Israel following Prime Minister Begin's
decision to resign also has contributed to the decision to take a lower
profile in Lebanon. Senior Likud officials are preoccupied with
forming a new government, and they have little time or enthusiasm for
Lebanese affairs. Public opinion, concerned about mounting
casualties, supports the pullback and a reduction in Israel's
involvement in Lebanon.
Focusing on the South
The Israelis will now concentrate their efforts in Lebanon on
building security arrangements in the south that will enable them to
continue to occupy that area with as few troops as possible. They are
likely to pay particular attention to fostering close ties with Shia
groups.
reach an accommodation with major Shia leaders on preventing
attacks on Israeli troops and limiting Palestinian infiltration.
Top Secret
10 12 September 1983
Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/02/07 :CIA-RDP85T01094R000400010142-5
25X1
25X1
25X1
 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/02/07 :CIA-RDP85T01094R000400010142-5
Top Secret
Although the Israelis hope to avoid renewed military involvement
north of the Awwali, they probably would respond to specific Syrian or
Palestinian provocations with airstrikes or artillery fire. If the Syrians
become more openly involved in the fighting in the Shuf, Tel Aviv
might try to intimidate Damascus by threatening to move against
Syrian forces on the Golan Heights or in the Bekaa Valley. The Israeli
public would have little enthusiasm for escalating the conflict or
moving back into the Shuf, however, if Damascus refused to stand
down.
Tel Aviv will retain its ties to groups such as the Druze and will
maintain relations with the Christians. It believes ties to the Druze are
~.,,. ,
im ortant in reventin infiltration into the south
25X1
Z~X1
25X1
Israelis also are likely
25X1
to be cool to Maronite proposals of an immediate peace treaty in
return for Israeli support for a Christian state based on the Maronite-
controlled areas. On the other hand, Tel Aviv has indicated it will
continue to supply arms and ammunition to Christian militias.
Looking to the US
The Israelis, aware that their lower profile leaves them little
influence in Beirut, will look to the US to shoulder the burden of
supporting the central government and intimidating the Syrians.
There is, however, some nervousness in Israel that the US may decide
to offer Syria political concessions-probably at Israel's expense-to
induce Damascus to reach some limited, tacit accommodation with
Gemayel. They are particularly concerned that Washington may offer
to try to persuade Israel to open negotiations on the Golan Heights as
part of a package deal on Lebanon.
The Israelis also suspect that the Syrians are encouraging PLO
factions under their control to participate in the Shuf fighting and that
they may be planning to send Palestinians back into Beirut.
The Israelis will look first to the US to prevent these
developments. Tel Aviv might be willing to let the Lebanese accord
remain quietly frozen, but probably would view any public statement
by Beirut abrogating the agreement as an unacceptable sign of Syrian
political control. Without physically moving into the Shuf or forcing
Syrian troops out of the Bekaa, however, Israel can do little to change
Top Secret
25X1
25X1
Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/02/07 :CIA-RDP85T01094R000400010142-5
 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/02/07 :CIA-RDP85T01094R000400010142-5
Top Secret
Top Secret
Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/02/07 :CIA-RDP85T01094R000400010142-5