ECONOMIC & ENERGY INDICATORS

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP85T01184R000100110003-1
• Release Decision: RIFPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 14
• Document Creation Date: December 22, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 3, 2010
• Sequence Number: 3
• Publication Date: February 3, 1984
• Content Type: REPORT

Approved For Release 2010/08/03: CIA-RDP85TO1184R000100110003-1
Directorate of
Intelligence
Economic & Energy
Indicators
DI EE/ 84-003
3 February 1984
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 Approved For Release 2010/08/03: CIA-RDP85TO1184ROO0100110003-1
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 Approved For Release 2010/08/03: CIA-RDP85T01184R000100110003-1
Economic & Energy
Indicators
Economic Industrial Production
Gross National Product
Consumer Prices
Money Supply
Unemployment Rate
Foreign Trade
Current Account Balance
Export Prices in US $
Import Prices in US $
Exchange Rate Trends
Money Market Rates
Agricultural Prices
Industrial Materials Prices
Energy World Crude Oil Production, Excluding Natural Gas Liquids 8
Big Seven: Inland Oil Consumption 9
Big Seven: Crude Oil Imports 9
OPEC: Crude Oil Official Sales Price 10
OPEC: Average Crude Oil Official Sales Price (Chart) 11
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 Approved For Release 2010/08/03: CIA-RDP85TO1184ROO0100110003-1
Percent Change From Previous Period
(Seasonally Adjusted at an Annual Rate)
United States
-3.6
2.6
-8.1
Japan
4.7
1.0
0.4
West Germany
-0.8
-2.7
-3.1
France
-0.7
-2.6
-1.5
United Kingdom
-6.4
-5.1
1.5
Italy
5.5
-2.4
-2.2
Canada
-1.5
0.9
-10.7
1st Qtr
2d Qtr
3d Qtr
Sep
Oct
9.9
18.4
21.5
16.6
9.8
3.6
6.5
12.3
5.8
4.4
9.3
1.4
2.1
4.2
4.8
0.7
6.2
1.2
-1.9
-10.4
-4.9
324.2
22.3
12.3
Percent Change From Previous Period
(Constant Market Prices; Seasonally Adjusted at an Annual Rate)
1st Qtr
2d Qtr
3d Qtr
United States
-0.3
2.6
-1.9
2.6
9.7
7.9
Japan
4.8
3.9
2.9
0.9
3.6
West Germany
1.8
-0.2
-1.1
2.5
4.3
United Kingdom
-2.1
-2.2
1.4
8.6
-7.1
Italy
3.9
0.1
-0.3
1.7
-6.5
Canada
1.0
3.4
-4.4
7.6
7.5
Percent Change From Previous Period
(Seasonally Adjusted at an Annual Rate)
1980
1981
1982
1983
1st Qtr
2d Qtr
3d Qtr
Oct
United States
13.5
10.3
6.2
-0.4
4.2
4.8
Japan
8.0
4.9
2.6
0.6
1.1
0.3
9.8
West Germany
5.5
6.0
5.3
0.5
1.4
5.1
2.2
France
13.5
13.3
12.0
11.0
10.6
9.1
United Kingdom
18.0
11.9
8.6
3.6
2.0
7.8
6.1
Italy
21.2
19.3
16.4
13.4
14.2
12.6
19.8
Canada
10.2
12.5
10.8
3.0
4.2
6.5
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Money Supply, M-1
Percent Change From Previous Period
(Based on Amounts in National Currency Units; Seasonally Adjusted at an Annual Rate)
United States a
6.2
7.1
6.5
Japan
0.8
3.7
7.1
West Germany
2.3
1.2
3.6
France
8.5
12.6
13.9
United Kingdom
4.5
NA
NA
Italy
15.8
11.2
11.6
Canada
6.4
4.0
1.0
Unemployment Rate a
Percent
(Seasonally adjusted)
1st Qtr
2d Qtr
3d Qtr
Oct
Nov
14.8
12.8
9.2
1.4
-0.3
0.3
11.5
21.5
11.2
6.4
6.5
12.0
9.8
16.6
8.5
11.8
6.1
28.1
11.4
10.0
-3.1
27.0
1st Qtr
2d Qtr
3d Qtr
Oct
Nov
United States
7.1
7.5
9.6
10.2
10.0
9.3
8.7
Japan
2.0
2.2
2.4
2.7
2.7
2.7
West Germany
3.9
5.6
7.7
8.8
9.6
9.6
9.4
France
6.3
7.6
8.4
8.4
8.4
8.5
8.7
8.8
United Kingdom
6.4
10.0
11.7
12.5
12.5
12.4
12.3
Italy
7.6
8.4
9.1
9.8
9.9
9.8
Canada
7.5
7.6
11.1
12.5
12.4
11.7
11.1
a Unemployment rates for France are estimated. For comparison
with the US rate, the rates for France and the United Kingdom
should be increased by 5 percent and 15 percent respectively. Italian
rates should be decreased by 50 percent; the rates for Japan,
Canada, and West Germany are comparable to US rates.
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Billion US $, f.o.b.
(Seasonally Adjusted)
United States a
Exports
220.7
233.5
212.3
50.5
48.6
50.6
17.4
Imports
245.0
261.0
244.0
58.6
62.3
66.9
22.2
Balance
-24.3
-27.5
-31.6
-8.1
-13.7
-16.3
-4.8
Japan
Exports
126.3
149.5
138.3
35.5
35.5
36.2
12.1
Imports
124.7
129.5
119.8
28.5
27.6
27.9
9.8
Balance
1.6
20.1
18.4
7.0
7.9
8.3
2.3
West Germany
Exports
193.0
175.3
176.4
43.6
43.1
41.5
14.0
Imports b
188.0
163.4
155.3
38.1
38.9
37.7
12.9
Balance
4.9
11.9
21.1
5.5
4.2
3.8
1.1
France
Exports
116.0
106.3
96.4
23.9
23.4
23.3
7.7
Imports
130.1
115.6
110.5
27.3
25.1
23.7
7.7
Balance
-14.1
-9.3
-14.0
-3.5
-1.7
-0.4
0
United Kingdom
Exports
110.2
102.5
97.0
22.6
22.8
22.4
7.8
Imports
107.2
96.1
93.5
22.9
23.8
23.0
7.6
Balance
3.0
6.4
3.6
-0.3
-1.0
-0.6
0.2
Italy
Exports
78.0
75.4
74.2
18.9
18.2
17.8
6.1
Imports
100.3
91.4
87.0
21.9
19.6
20.3
6.9
Balance
-22.3
-15.9
-12.8
-3.0
-1.4
-2.5
-0.9
Canada
Exports
65.9
70.5
68.6
16.9
18.4
18.6
6.3
Imports
58.4
64.3
53.7
13.6
14.1
15.3
5.4
Balance
7.5
6.2
14.8
3.3
4.3
3.3
0.9
a Imports are customs values.
b Imports are c.i.f.
a Converted to US dollars at current market rates of exchange.
b Seasonally adjusted.
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1st Qtr
2d Qtr
Aug
Sep
United States
10.6
9.2
1.5
3.1
1.5
Japan
6.6
5.5
-6.4
10.6
-7.2
-12.5
49.6
West Germany
7.2
-15.2
-3.0
14.0
-10.8
-84.8
5.7
France
11.7
-12.0
-5.5
13.0
-16.6
-23.5
United Kingdom
22.5
NA
-7.3
-14.0
15.7
Italy
17.4
-7.8
-3.3
-3.4
-14.1
Canada
17.4
3.9
-2.3
3.3
-11.7
1.1
-31.9
1st Qtr
2d Qtr
Aug
Sep
United States
27.3
5.3
-2.0
-12.3
-4.3
Japan
35.5
3.6
-7.3
-4.1
-18.4
-23.5
20.3
West Germany
15.7
-8.3
-5.4
-3.1
-13.4
France
19.4
-7.8
-7.2
3.7
-19.4
-25.1
United Kingdom
24.2
NA
-6.1
-11.0
7.2
Italy
26.1
1.1
-7.3
1.4
-31.1
Canada
16.8
8.7
-1.1
-1.5
-12.5
66.0
-32.4
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Exchange Rate Trends
United States
-0.4
10.5
10.6
-6.0
9.2
13.1
-14.2
21.5
Japan
-4.2
9.3
-5.7
46.5
5.2
-1.3
48.9
0.7
West Germany
0.2
-2.1
7.0
10.4
4.2
-4.1
15.7
-8.0
France
0.5
-5.1
-6.1
6.7
-16.9
-4.2
0.4
-4.0
United Kingdom
9.8
2.5
-2.1
-31.1
24.3
7.2
-16.7
12.3
Italy
-4.1
-9.2
-5.1
4.5
-4.9
-4.6
-2.7
-3.4
Japan
-3.5
2.7
-12.8
31.5
-4.1
-7.7
39.2
-12.9
West Germany
0.8
-24.6
-7.2
14.1
-13.4
-28.2
26.6
-28.6
France
0.7
-28.7
-20.8
10.1
-38.2
-29.5
16.0
-21.8
United Kingdom
9.6
-13.2
-13.4
-25.3
5.5
-10.7
-0.2
-7.4
Italy
-3.1
-32.8
-18.8
9.4
-23.8
-29.1
14.4
-22.3
Canada
0.2
-2.5
-2.9
1.7
-1.2
-0.6
0.5
-1.6
Money Market Rates
United States
90-day certificates of
deposit, secondary market
Japan
loans and discounts
(2 months)
West Germany
interbank loans
(3 months)
France
interbank money market
(3 months)
United Kingdom
sterling interbank loans
(3 months)
Italy
Milan interbank loans
(3 months)
Canada
finance paper (3 months)
Eurodollars
3-month deposits
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 Approved For Release 2010/08/03: CIA-RDP85TO1184R000100110003-1
Agricultural Prices
Australia
(Boneless beef,
f.o.b., US Ports)
United States
(Wholesale steer beef,
midwest markets)
104.3
100.0
101.4
97.6
96.7
104.9
95.5
93.2
98.4
Cocoa
(f per pound)
113.5
89.8
74.3
92.1
80.5
90.3
97.4
100.1
112.0
Coffee
(S per pound)
Corn
(Central Illinois No. 2 yellow,
S per bushel)
Cotton
0.8219
0.7243
0.6073
0.6873
0.6311
0.6755
0.7163
0.7263
0.7218
(Memphis middling
I 1/ 16 inch, $ per pound)
Palm Oil
(United Kingdom 5% bulk,
c.i.f., $ per metric ton)
Rice
(New Orleans
No. 2, milled f.o.b.,
S per metric ton)
Soybeans
(Central Illinois No. I yellow,
S per bushel)
Soybean Oil 0.2375 0.2129 0.1837 0.2351 0.1711 0.1953 0.2873 0.2867 0.2732
(S per pound)
Sugar
(World raw London,
bulk f per pound)
Wheat
(Kansas City No. 2 hard
winter, $ per bushel)
Food Index a
(1975= 100)
a The food index is compiled by The Economist for 16 food
commodities which enter international trade. Commodities are
weighted by 3-year moving averages of imports into industrialized
countries.
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Major US producer
71.6
77.3
76.0
77.7
76.0
76.0
77.7
81.0
81.0
LME cash
80.8
57.4
44.9
65.1
54.2
64.6
71.7
69.9
70.4
Chrome Ore
55.0
53.0
50.9
50.0
50.0
50.0
50.0
50.0
50.0
50.0
(South Africa chemical
grade, S per metric ton)
Copper a
(bar, ? per pound)
Gold
(S per troy ounce)
Lead a
(t per pound)
Manganese Ore
(48% Mn, $ per long ton)
3.2
2.1
Composite US producer 3.5 3.5 3.2
LME Cash 3.0 2.7 2.2
Platinum (s per troy ounce)
Metals week,
New York dealers' price
Silver
(S per troy ounce)
20.7
10.5
7.9
Steel Scrap d
(S per long ton)
91.2
92.0
63.1
Tin a
(Q per pound)
Tungsten Ore
(contained metal,
S per metric ton)
US Steel
(composite,
$ per long ton)
486.2
543.5
567.3
Zinc a
(e per pound)
34.4
38.4
33.7
Lumber Index e
(1975=100)
167
159
140
Industrial
Materials Index r
184
166
142
(1975 =100)
e This index is compiled by using the average of 11 types of lumber
whose prices are regarded as bellwethers of US lumber construction
costs.
f The industrial materials index is compiled by The Economist for
19 raw materials which enter international trade. Commodities are
weighted by 3-year moving averages of imports into industrialized
countries.
a Approximates world market price frequently used by major world
producers and traders, although only small quantities of these
metals are actually traded on the LME.
b S-type styrene, US export price.
e Quoted on New York market.
d Average of No. I heavy melting steel scrap and No. 2 bundles
delivered to consumers at Pittsburgh, Philadelphia, and Chicago.
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World Crude Oil Production
Excluding Natural Gas Liquids
World
59,469
55,818
53,053
Non-Communist countries
45,244
41,593
38,803
Developed countries
12,859
13,579
13,276
United States
8,597
8,572
8,658
Canada
1,424
1,285
1,270
United Kingdom
1,619
1,811
2,094
Norway
528
501
518
Other
691
717
736
Non-OPEC LDCs
5,444
6,027
6,636
Mexico
1,937
2,312
2,749
Egypt
595
598
665
Other
2,912
3,117
3,222
OPEC
26,941
22,680
18,891
Algeria
1,020
803
701
Ecuador
204
211
211
Gabon
175
151
154
Indonesia
1,576
1,604
1,314
Iran
1,662
1,381
2,282
Iraq
2,514
993
972
Kuwait b
1,389
947
663
Libya
1,830
1,137
1,183
Neutral Zone c
544
370
317
Nigeria
2,058
1,445
1,298
Qatar
471
405
328
Saudi Arabia b
9,631
9,625
6,327
UAE
1,702
1,500
1,248
Venezuela
2,165
2,108
1,893
Communist countries
14,225
14,225
14,250
USSR
11,700
11,790
11,800
China
2,118
2,024
2,040
Other
407
411
410
1983
1st Half
3d Qtr
Oct
Nov
50,525
54,163
36,310
39,567
13,560
13,831
8,699
8,675
8,670
1,264
1,393
2,193
2,319
601
600
803
844
873
6,724
6,902
6,943
2,660
2,724
2,659
2,729
672
704
715
3,392
3,474
3,569
16,026
18,834
18,775
18,438
650
700
700
700
207
239
250
234
158
160
150
150
1,185
1,350
1,400
1,400
2,484
2,667
2,400
2,300
850
983
1,000
1,000
761
983
1,100
1,000
1,018
1,117
1,150
1,150
340
460
406
432
1,133
1,410
1,290
1,247
244
291
350
390
4,073
5,600
5,700
5,500
1,082
1,157
1,140
1,165
1,841
1,717
1,739
1,770
14,215
14,596
14,405
11,890
12,216
11,900
2,085
2,100
2,085
240
280
420
a Preliminary.
b Excluding Neutral Zone production, which is shown separately.
C Production is shared equally between Saudi Arabia and Kuwait.
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Big Seven: Inland Oil Consumption
United States a
17,006
16,058
15,296
Japan
4,674
4,444
4,204
West Germany
2,356
2,120
2,024
France
1,965
1,744
1,632
United Kingdom
1,422
1,325
1,345
Italy b
1,602
1,705
1,618
Canada
1,730
1,617
1,454
a Including bunkers, refinery fuel, and losses.
b Principal products only.
May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
14,250 15,281 14,913 15,240 15,396 14,947 15,513 16,234
3,461 3,888 3,752 3,907 4,043 3,901
2,010 2,058 1,783 1,920 2,029 2,088
1,497 1,399 1,209 1,347 1,414 1,495 1,798 1,846
1,227 1,257 1,148 1,216 1,301 1,278
1,468 1,472 1,365 1,297 1,588 1,624 1,843 1,881
1,313 1,350 1,262 1,432 1,382 1,361
Big Seven: Crude Oil Imports
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
United States 5,220
4,406
3,488
3,234
3,502
3,868
4,174
4,221
3,446
3,265
3,070
Japan 4,373
3,919
3,657
2,975
3,337
3,007
2,981
3,590
3,344
West Germany 1,953
1,591
1,451
1,385
1,274
1,313
1,248
1,421
1,156
1,346
France 2,182
1,804
1,596
1,331
1,492
1,438
1,399
1,254
1,393
United Kingdom 893
736
565
537
467
494
462
587
Italy 1,860
1,816
1,710
1,485
1,485
Canada 557
521
334
93
137
325
381
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OPEC average b
18.67
30.87
34.50
33.63
28.69
28.70
28.73
28.74
Algeria
42? API 0.10% sulfur
19.65
37.59
39.58
35.79
30.50
30.50
30.50
30.50
Ecuador
28? API 0.93% sulfur
22.41
34.42
34.50
32.96
26.70
26.70
26.70
26.70
Gabon
29? API 1.26% sulfur
18.20
31.09
34.83
34.00
29.00
29.00
29.00
29.00
Indonesia
35? API 0.09% sulfur
18.35
30.55
35.00
34.92
29.53
29.53
29.53
29.53
Light
34? API 1.35% sulfur
19.45
34.54
36.60
31.05
28.00
28.00
28.00
28.00
Heavy
31 ? API 1.60% sulfur
18.49
33.60
35.57
29.15
27.10
27.10
27.10
27.10
Iraq ?
35? API 1.95% sulfur
18.56
30.30
36.66
34.86
29.43
29.43
29.43
29.43
Kuwait
311 API 2.50% sulfur
18.48
29.84
35.08
32.30
27.30
27.30
27.30
27.30
Libya
40? API 0.22% sulfur
21.16
36.07
40.08
35.69
30.40
30.40
30.40
30.40
Nigeria
34? API 0.16% sulfur
20.86
35.50
38.48
35.64
29.85
29.85
29.85
29.85
Qatar
40? API 1.17% sulfur
19.72
31.76
37.12
34.56
29.49
29.49
29.49
29.49
Berri
39? API 1.16% sulfur
19.33
30.19
34.04
34.68
29.50
29.50
29.50
29.50
Light
34? API 1.70% sulfur
17.26
28.67
32.50
34.00
29.00
29.00
29.00
29.00
Medium
31 ? API 2.40% sulfur
16.79
28.12
31.84
32.40
27.40
27.40
27.40
27.40
Heavy
27? API 2.85% sulfur
16.41
27.67
31.13
31.00
26.00
26.00
26.00
26.00
UAE
39? API 0.75% sulfur
19.81
31.57
36.42
34.74
29.56
29.56
29.56
29.56
Venezuela
26? API 1.52% sulfur
17.22
28.44
32.88
32.88
27.88
27.88
27.88
27.88
a F.o.b. prices set by the government for direct sales and, in most
cases, for the producing company buy-back oil.
b Weighted by the volume of production.
? Beginning in 1981 the price of Kirkuk (Mediterranean) is used in
calculating the OPEC average official sales price.
Approved For Release 2010/08/03: CIA-RDP85TO1184ROO0100110003-1
 Approved For Release 2010/08/03: CIA-RDP85TO1184R000100110003-1
OPEC: Average Crude Oil Official Sales Price
34.50 33.63
30.87 ~~ 29.31
18.67
102 7
1973 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83
Annual Average
.
.57 33.53
33.37 33.57
31.74
31.08
30.41
28.77 28.72 28.72 28.70 28.73 28.74
1979 1980 1981 1982
The 1973 price is derived from posted prices. not official sales prices.
34.84 34.64 34.48
06 34.05
34
Approved For Release 2010/08/03: CIA-RDP85TO1184R000100110003-1