ECONOMIC & ENERGY INDICATORS

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP85T01184R000100120001-2
• Release Decision: RIFPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 14
• Document Creation Date: December 22, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 2, 2010
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: February 17, 1984
• Content Type: REPORT

Approved For Release 2010/08/02 : CIA-RDP85TO1184R000100120001-2
Directorate of
Intelligence
Economic & Energy
Indicators
17 February 1984
DI EEl 84-004
17 February 1984
Approved For Release 2010/08/02 : CIA-RDP85TO1184R000100120001-2
 Approved For Release 2010/08/02 : CIA-RDP85TO1184ROO0100120001-2
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 Approved For Release 2010/08/02 : CIA-RDP85T01184R000100120001-2
Economic & Energy
Indicators
Economic Industrial Production 1
Gross National Product 1
Consumer Prices 1
Money Supply
Unemployment Rate
Foreign Trade
Current Account Balance
Export Prices in US $
Import Prices in US $
Exchange Rate Trends
Money Market Rates
Agricultural Prices
Industrial Materials Prices
Energy World Crude Oil Production, Excluding Natural Gas Liquids 8
Big Seven: Inland Oil Consumption 9
Big Seven: Crude Oil Imports 9
OPEC: Crude Oil Official Sales Price 10
OPEC: Average Crude Oil Official Sales Price (Chart) 11
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 Approved For Release 2010/08/02 : CIA-RDP85TO1184ROO0100120001-2
Percent Change From Previous Period
(Seasonally Adjusted at an Annual Rate)
United States
2.6
-8.1
6.5
Japan
1.0
0.4
3.4
West Germany
-2.7
-3.1
France
-2.6
-1.5
United Kingdom
-5.1
1.5
2.5
Italy
-2.4
-2.2
Canada
0.9
-10.7
1st Qtr
2d Qtr
3d Qtr
Oct
Nov
Dec
9.9
18.4
21.8
9.8
3.9
7.2
3.6
6.5
14.0
-13.5
29.0
3.3
4.4
9.3
4.9
NEGL
23.4
1.0
4.2
3.1
-8.9
32.0
4.8
0.5
5.7
1.2
4.8
7.3
-2.0
-10.4
-4.9
-13.2
35.0
22.3
12.3
20.2
9.3
2.7
Percent Change From Previous Period
(Constant Market Prices; Seasonally Adjusted at an Annual Rate)
United States
2.6
-1.9
3.3
Japan
3.9
2.9
West Germany
-0.2
-1.1
France
0.2
1.7
United Kingdom
-2.2
1.4
Italy
0.1
-0.3
Canada
3.4
-4.4
Percent Change From Previous Period
(Seasonally Adjusted at an Annual Rate)
United States
10.3
6.2
3.2
Japan
4.9
2.6
1.8
West Germany
6.0
5.3
3.0
France
13.3
12.0
9.5
United Kingdom
11.9
8.6
4.6
Italy
19.3
16.4
14.9
Canada
12.5
10.8
5.8
1st Qtr
2d Qtr
3d Qtr
4th Qtr
2.6
9.7
7.6
4.5
0.7
4.4
6.2
2.5
4.3
0.6
-0.7
1.8
-1.7
5.9
-7.2
2.2
2.5
-6.6
3.7
6.6
7.6
8.3
1st Qtr 2d Qtr
3d Qtr
Oct
Nov
Dec
-0.4
4.2
4.8
5.3
3.6
3.2
0.6
1.1
0.3
7.3
1.9
2.7
0.5
1.4
5.1
1.4
2.4
3.3
11.0
10.6
9.1
8.1
7.7
6.2
3.6
2.0
7.8
4.7
3.3
6.4
13.4
14.2
12.6
13.0
9.3
10.1
3.0
4.2
6.5
6.1
0.3
8.0
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Money Supply, M-1
Percent Change From Previous Period
(Based on Amounts in National Currency Units; Seasonally Adjusted at an Annual Rate)
1st Qtr 2d Qtr 3d Qtr
Oct
Nov
Dec
United States a
7.1
6.5
14.8 12.8 9.2
6.4
3.3
5.4
Japan
3.7
7.1
3.0
-0.3 0.3 11.5
-23.9
2.0
-1.9
West Germany
1.2
3.6
10.3
21.5 11.2 6.4
8.0
-14.0
8.6
France
12.6
13.9
6.5 12.0
13.1
United Kingdom
NA
NA
13.2
9.8 16.6 8.5
19.3
6.8
20.2
Italy
11.2
11.6
11.8 6.1
14.6
Canada
4.0
1.0
10.1
28.1 11.4 10.0
-6.5
6.8
-6.9
Unemployment Rate a
Percent
(Seasonally adjusted)
1st Qtr 2d Qtr 3d Qtr
Oct
Nov
Dec
United States
7.5
9.6
9.4
10.2 10.0 9.3
8.7
8.3
8.1
Japan
2.2
2.4
2.7
2.7 2.7 2.7
2.6
2.6
2.6
West Germany
5.6
7.7
9.2
8.8 9.6 9.6
9.3
9.0
8.8
France
7.6
8.4
8.5
8.4 8.4 8.5
8.6
8.6
8.6
United Kingdom
10.0
11.7
12.4
12.5 12.5 12.4
12.4
12.3
12.3
Italy
8.4
9.1
9.9
9.8 9.9 9.8
Canada
7.6
11.1
11.9
12.5 12.4 11.7
11.2
11.1
11.1
a Unemployment rates for France are estimated. For comparison
with the US rate, the rates for France and the United Kingdom
should be increased by 5 percent and 15 percent respectively.
Italian rates should be decreased by 50 percent; the rates for Japan,
Canada, and West Germany are comparable to US rates.
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Billion US $, f.o.b.
(Seasonally Adjusted)
United States a
Exports
233.5
212.3
200.7
50.5
48.6
50.6
17.0
16.8
17.2
Imports
261.0
244.0
258.2
58.6
62.3
66.9
24.8
23.2
22.4
Balance
-27.5
-31.6
-57.4
-8.1
-13.7
-16.3
-7.8
-6.3
-5.3
Japan
Exports
149.5
138.3
145.5
35.5
35.5
36.2
12.5
13.2
12.9
Imports
129.5
119.8
113.9
28.5
27.6
27.9
10.0
9.9
10.0
Balance
20.1
18.4
31.6
7.0
7.9
8.3
2.5
3.3
2.9
West Germany
Exports
175.3
176.4
169.4
43.6
43.1
41.5
13.4
14.0
14.0
Imports b
163.4
155.3
152.9
38.1
38.9
37.7
12.4
12.9
13.0
Balance
11.9
21.1
16.5
5.5
4.2
3.8
0.9
1.1
1.0
France
Exports
106.3
96.4
95.0
23.9
23.4
23.3
8.1
8.2
8.1
Imports
115.6
110.5
100.9
27.3
25.1
23.7
8.2
8.4
8.1
Balance
-9.3
-14.0
-5.9
-3.5
-1.7
-0.4
-0.1
-0.2
0
United Kingdom
Exports
102.5
97.0
91.9
22.6
22.8
22.4
7.7
7.8
8.4
Imports
96.1
93.5
93.4
22.9
23.8
23.0
8.4
7.6
7.7
Balance
6.4
3.6
-1.6
-0.3
-1.0
-0.6
-0.6
0.2
0.7
Italy
Exports
75.4
74.2
72.8
18.9
18.2
17.8
6.3
6.3
5.8
Imports
91.4
87.0
80.8
21.9
19.6
20.3
6.7
6.3
6.2
Balance
-15.9
-12.8
-7.9
-3.0
-1.4
-2.5
-0.4
0
-0.4
Canada
Exports
70.5
68.6
74.1
16.9
18.4
18.6
6.3
6.9
6.9
Imports
64.3
53.7
59.4
13.6
14.1
15.3
5.4
5.4
5.6
Balance
6.2
14.8
14.6
3.3
4.3
3.3
0.9
1.5
1.3
8 Imports are customs values.
b Imports are c.i.f.
1st Qtr
2d Qtr
3d Qtr
Oct
Nov
Dec
United States
4.6
-11.2
-3.6
-9.7
-12.0
Japan
4.8
6.9
21.0
1.4
6.3
6.9
2.3
0.9
3.3
West Germany
-6.8
3.4
3.3
1.7
0.8
-2.7
1.2
0.3
2.0
France
-5.5
-12.1
-4.0
-1.0
0.3
United Kingdom
NA
9.3
2.9
1.2
-0.3
0.9
-0.3
0.5
1.0
Italy
-8.5
-5.8
-2.0
0.6
Canada
-4.8
2.4
0.2
0.9
-0.2
a Converted to US dollars at current market rates of exchange.
b Seasonally adjusted.
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Export Prices in US $
1st Qtr
2d Qtr
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
United States
9.2
1.5
2.8
2.1
4.4
9.5
4.6
0.6
-7.2
Japan
5.5
-6.4
10.6
-7.2
-12.5
49.6
34.9
-6.6
18.6
West Germany
-15.2
-3.0
14.0
-10.8
-84.8
5.7
France
-12.0
-5.5
13.6
-16.6
-22.6
14.9
44.2
-16.3
United Kingdom
NA
-7.3
-14.0
15.7
Italy
-7.8
-3.3
-2.3
-14.6
-32.2
40.6
16.9
Canada
3.9
-2.3
3.3
-11.7
1.1
-32.2
15.7
-29.5
Import Prices in US $
1st Qtr
2d Qtr
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
United States
5.3
-2.0
-12.4
-3.5
28.2
5.6
-4.0
2.4
1.2
Japan
3.6
-7.3
-4.1
-18.4
-23.5
20.3
4.5
-15.4
20.1
West Germany
-8.3
-5.4
-3.1
-13.4
France
-7.8
-7.2
4.1
-19.4
-26.8
8.8
14.4
-24.9
United Kingdom
NA
-6.1
-11.0
7.2
Italy
1.1
-7.3
2.2
-31.1
-56.5
-36.2
127.1
Canada
8.7
-1.1
-1.3
-12.3
33.7
-19.1
25.1
-20.4
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Exchange Rate Trends
West Germany
-2.1
7.0
5.8
10.4
4.2
-4.1
3.4
-1.2
France
-5.1
-6.1
-4.7
6.7
-16.9
-4.2
-1.8
-3.6
2.5
-2.1
-5.0
-31.1
24.3
7.2
-4.0
-10.6
-9.2
-5.1
-1.6
4.5
-4.9
-4.6
-5.2
-3.1
0.3
0.2
2.3
0.2
1.4
-3.6
-0.7
-3.5
Japan
2.7
-12.8
4.5
31.5
-4.1
-7.7
13.3
4.1
West Germany
-24.6
-7.2
-5.2
14.1
-13.4
-28.2
-5.2
-32.8
France
-28.7
-20.8
-15.9
10.1
-38.2
-29.5
10.4
-37.8
United Kingdom
-13.2
-13.4
-13.3
-25.3
5.5
-10.7
-10.0
-29.8
Italy
-32.8
-18.8
-12.3
9.4
-23.8
-29.1
-13.1
-37.5
Canada
-2.5
-2.9
0.1
1.7
-1.2
-0.6
-1.9
-9.3
United States
90-day certificates of
deposit, secondary market
Japan
loans and discounts
(2 months)
West Germany
interbank loans
(3 months)
France
interbank money market
(3 months)
United Kingdom 13.85 12.24 10.94 11.16 10.28
sterling interbank loans
(3 months)
Italy
Milan interbank loans
(3 months)
Canada 18.46 14.48
finance paper (3 months)
Eurodollars
3-month deposits
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Agricultural Prices
Australia
(Boneless beef,
f.o.b., US Ports)
United States
(Wholesale steer beef,
midwest markets)
104.3
100.0
101.4
97.6
96.7
104.9
95.5
93.2
98.4
Cocoa
(0 per pound)
113.5
89.8
74.3
92.1
80.5
90.3
97.4
100.1
112.0
Coffee
(S per pound)
1.54
1.28
1.40
1.32
1.26
1.26
1.30
1.44
1.47
Corn
(Central Illinois No. 2 yellow,
$ per bushel)
3.01
3.14
2.42
3.11
2.59
3.10
3.43
3.33
3.26
Cotton
(Memphis middling
I 1/ 16 inch, $ per pound)
0.8219
0.7243
0.6073
0.6873
0.6311
0.6755
0.7163
0.7263
0.7218
Palm Oil
(United Kingdom 5% bulk,
c.i.f., $ per metric ton)
583.08
570.67
445
502
372
415
543
677
699
Rice
(New Orleans
No. 2, milled f.o.b.,
$ per metric ton)
496
565
367
379
368
375
386
386
386
Soybeans
(Central Illinois No. I yellow,
$ per bushel)
6.95
6.98
5.86
6.90
5.71
6.06
7.80
8.01
7.77
Soybean Oil
(S per pound)
0.2375
0.2129
0.1837
0.2351
0.1711
0.1953
0.2873
0.2867
0.2732
Sugar
(World raw London,
bulk t per pound)
28.63
16.88
8.42
8.45
6.21
8.75
10.19
8.65
7.78
Wheat
4.33
4.36
4.00
3.94
4.07
4.05
3.82
3.83
3.84
(Kansas City No. 2 hard
winter, $ per bushel)
Food Index a
(1975-100)
a The food index is compiled by The Economist for 16 food
commodities which enter international trade. Commodities are
weighted by 3-year moving averages of imports into industrialized
countries.
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Major US producer
71.6
77.3
76.0
77.7
76.0
76.0
77.7
81.0
81.0
LME cash
80.8
57.4
44.9
65.1
54.2
64.6
71.7
69.9
70.4
Chrome Ore
55.0
53.0
50.9
50.0
50.0
50.0
50.0
50.0
50.0
50.0
(South Africa chemical
grade, $ per metric ton)
Copper a
(bar, 4 per pound)
Gold
(S per troy ounce)
Lead a
(4 per pound)
Manganese Ore
(48% Mn, $ per long ton)
Composite US producer
3.5
3.5
3.2
LME Cash
3.0
2.7
2.2
Platinum (S per troy ounce)
Metals week,
New York dealers' price
677.0
446.0
326.7
Synthetic b
40.6
47.5
45.7
NA
48.1
40.9
44.3
NA
NA
Natural a
73.8
56.8
45.4
56.2
49.8
56.8
59.2
58.8
58.1
Silver
(S per troy ounce)
20.7
10.5
7.9
11.4
12.3
12.1
12.0
9.30
9.1
Steel Scrap d
91.2
92.0
63.1
(S per long ton)
Tin a
(4 per pound)
Tungsten Ore
(contained metal,
S per metric ton)
US Steel
(composite,
$ per long ton)
Zinc a
34.4
38.4
33.7
(4 per pound)
Lumber Index a
167
159
140
(1975-100)
Industrial
184
166
142
Materials Index f
(1975-100)
a Approximates world market price frequently used by major world
producers and traders, although only small quantities of these
metals are actually traded on the LME.
b S-type styrene, US export price.
c Quoted on New York market.
d Average of No. 1 heavy melting steel scrap and No. 2 bundles
delivered to consumers at Pittsburgh, Philadelphia, and Chicago.
e This index is compiled by using the average of 11 types of lumber
whose prices are regarded as bellwethers of US lumber construction
costs.
f The industrial materials index is compiled by The Economist for
19 raw materials which enter international trade. Commodities are
weighted by 3-year moving averages of imports into industrialized
countries.
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World Crude Oil Production
Excluding Natural Gas Liquids
World
59,469
55,818
53,053
Non-Communist countries
45,244
41,593
38,803
Developed countries
12,859
13,579
13,276
United States
8,597
8,572
8,658
Canada
1,424
1,285
1,270
United Kingdom
1,619
1,811
2,094
Norway
528
501
518
Other
691
717
736
Non-OPEC LDCs
5,444
6,027
6,636
Mexico
1,937
2,312
2,749
Egypt
595
598
665
Other
2,912
3,117
3,222
OPEC
26,941
22,680
18,891
Algeria
1,020
803
701
Ecuador
204
211
211
Gabon
175
151
154
Indonesia
1,576
1,604
1,314
Iran
1,662
1,381
2,282
Iraq
2,514
993
972
Kuwait b
1,389
947
663
Libya
1,830
1,137
1,183
Neutral Zone C
544
370
317
Nigeria
2,058
1,445
1,298
Qatar
471
405
328
Saudi Arabia b
9,631
9,625
6,327
UAE
1,702
1,500
1,248
Venezuela
2,165
2,108
1,893
Communist countries
14,225
14,225
14,250
USSR
11,700
11,790
11,800
China
2,118
2,024
2,040
Other
407
411
410
a Preliminary.
b Excluding Neutral Zone production, which is shown separately.
c Production is shared equally between Saudi Arabia and Kuwait.
1983
1st Half
3d Qtr
Oct
Nov
Dec
50,525
54,163
36,310
39,567
13,560
13,831
8,699
8,675
8,670
8,635
8,636
1,264
1,393
2,193
2,319
601
600
803
844
873
902
6,724
6,902
6,943
6,957
2,660
2,724
2,659
2,729
672
704
715
690
3,392
3,474
3,569
3,538
16,026
18,834
19,073
19,007
18,962
650
700
700
700
700
207
239
250
234
250
158
160
150
150
150
1,185
1,350
1,400
1,400
1,440
2,484
2,667
2,400
2,300
2,300
850
983
1,000
1,000
1,000
761
983
1,304
1,267
1,255
1,018
1,117
1,150
1,150
1,150
340
460
406
432
450
1,133
1,410
1,290
1,247
1,308
244
291
318
460
420
4,073
5,600
5,800
5,700
5,600
1,082
1,157
1,166
1,197
1,194
1,841
1,717
1,739
1,770
1,775
14,215
14,596
14,405
11,890
12,216
11,900
11,916
2,085
2,100
2,085
2,085
240
280
420
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 Approved For Release 2010/08/02 : CIA-RDP85TO1184R000100120001-2
Big Seven: Inland Oil Consumption
United States a
17,006
16,058
15,296
15,142
Japan
4,674
4,444
4,204
West Germany
2,356
2,120
2,024
France
1,965
1,744
1,632
1,532
United Kingdom
1,422
1,325
1,345
Italy b
1,602
1,705
1,618
1,590
Canada
1,730
1,617
1,454
Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
15,281 14,913 15,240 15,396 14,947 15,533 16,234
3,888 3,752 3,906 4,047 3,922
2,058 1,783 1,920 2,029 2,088 2,053
1,399 1,209 1,347 1,414 1,495 1,798 1,846
1,257 1,148 1,216 1,301 1,278
1,472 1,365 1,297 1,588 1,624 1,843 1,881
1,350 1,262 1,432 1,382 1,361
a Including bunkers, refinery fuel, and losses.
b Principal products only.
Big Seven: Crude Oil Imports
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
United States 5,220
4,406
3,488
3,083
3,502
3,868
4,174
4,221
3,446
3,265
3,070
Japan 4,373
3,919
3,657
3,337
3,007
2,981
3,590
3,344
West Germany 1,953
1,591
1,451
1,274
1,313
1,248
1,421
1,153
1,346
France 2,182
1,804
1,596
1,492
1,438
1,399
1,254
1,393
1,245
United Kingdom 893
736
565
467
494
462
587
Italy 1,860
1,816
1,710
1,485
1,588
1,588
1,588
Canada 557
521
334
137
325
381
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 Approved For Release 2010/08/02 : CIA-RDP85TO1184R000100120001-2
OPEC average b
18.67
30.87
34.50
33.63
28.69
28.70
28.73
28.74
Algeria
42? API 0.10% sulfur
19.65
37.59
39.58
35.79
30.50
30.50
30.50
30.50
Ecuador
28? API 0.93% sulfur
22.41
34.42
34.50
32.96
26.70
26.70
26.70
26.70
Gabon
29? API 1.26 %sulfur
18.20
31.09
34.83
34.00
29.00
29.00
29.00
29.00
Indonesia
35? API 0.09% sulfur
18.35
30.55
35.00
34.92
29.53
29.53
29.53
29.53
Light
34? API 1.35% sulfur
19.45
34.54
36.60
31.05
28.00
28.00
28.00
28.00
Heavy
31 ? API 1.60% sulfur
18.49
33.60
35.57
29.15
27.10
27.10
27.10
27.10
Iraq c
35 ? API 1.95% sulfur
18.56
30.30
36.66
34.86
29.43
29.43
29.43
29.43
Kuwait
310 API 2.50% sulfur
18.48
29.84
35.08
32.30
27.30
27.30
27.30
27.30
Libya
40? API 0.22% sulfur
21.16
36.07
40.08
35.69
30.40
30.40
30.40
30.40
Nigeria
34? API 0.16% sulfur
20.86
35.50
38.48
35.64
29.85
29.85
29.85
29.85
Qatar
40? API 1.17%sulfur
19.72
31.76
37.12
34.56
29.49
29.49
29.49
29.49
Berri
39? API 1.16%sulfur
19.33
30.19
34.04
34.68
29.50
29.50
29.50
29.50
Light
34? API 1.70% sulfur
17.26
28.67
32.50
34.00
29.00
29.00
29.00
29.00
Medium
31 ? API 2.40% sulfur
16.79
28.12
31.84
32.40
27.40
27.40
27.40
27.40
Heavy
27* API 2.85% sulfur
16.41
27.67
31.13
31.00
26.00
26.00
26.00
26.00
UAE
39? API 0.75% sulfur
19.81
31.57
36.42
34.74
29.56
29.56
29.56
29.56
Venezuela
26? API 1.52% sulfur
17.22
28.44
32.88
32.88
27.88
27.88
27.88
27.88
a F.o.b. prices set by the government for direct sales and, in most
cases, for the producing company buy-back oil.
b Weighted by the volume of production.
c Beginning in 1981 the price of Kirkuk (Mediterranean) is used in
calculating the OPEC average official sales price.
Approved For Release 2010/08/02 : CIA-RDP85TO1184R000100120001-2
 Approved For Release 2010/08/02 : CIA-RDP85TO1184R000100120001-2
OPEC: Average Crude Oil Sales Price
29.31
18.67
11973 74 75 76 77
78 79 80 81 82 83
Approved For Release 2010/08/02 : CIA-RDP85TO1184R000100120001-2