HRPS THIRD QUARTER ACCOMPLISHMENTS FY 1983

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP86-00024R000100020004-4
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: K
• Document Page Count: 4
• Document Creation Date: December 16, 2016
• Document Release Date: July 21, 2005
• Sequence Number: 4
• Publication Date: July 19, 1983
• Content Type: MF

Approv~~~~/08/0~`, 1A[?8y~000p"100020004-4
19 July 1983
MEMORANDUM FOR: DD/OP-PA&E
I I
C/HRPS
SUBJECT: HRPS Third Quarter
Accomplishments FY 1983
Standard Estimates and Projections
I. Drafted an OP request to the Comptroller to increase the
FY 1985 OP resources in the Standard Support Requirements (SSR) bud-
getary submission. Unfortunately, when our requirements were massaged
by a DDA committee charged with preparing this supplementary budgetary
package, the OP derived resources were reduced by 25 percent.
II. The FTE and strength projections through FY 1983 were up-
dated for the Agency and directorates, incorporating the actual gains
and losses experienced through the bi-weekly period ending 28 April
1983. This update. incorporated the significant reduction in DDS&T
net-outflow (and corresponding EOD levels). The update reflected the
continuing reduction in the Agency's predicted FTE overrun, which has
gradually dropped from a high of 35 to 10 on the current report.
Copies of the revisions were sent to the Directorate Personnel
Officers, C/SPD, and O/Comp.
III. At the request of SPD/CSB, HRPS developed a forecast of FY
1983 clerical attrition. The estimate was based on FY 1983 clerical
attrition experienced through April 1983. Rate was projected through
the rest of the fiscal year, and showed a surprising reduction of
about 40 percent from the rate experienced for clerical employees in
FY 1982. The projected FY 1983 clerical attrition rate is just under
11 percent.
IV. Work has been completed on a model of the projected age
distribution of DDA/OS professionals. The report, showing the age
dynamics of 0 percent growth and a steady 2 percent growth rate, has
been provided to OS in a briefing and a written report.
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V. Prepared a short paper proposing new or alternative ben-
efits for Agency employees. The proposals will be incorporated into a
comprehensive DD/OP/PA&E study on employee benefits.
VI. Provided the C/SPD with the current and estimated year end
attrition rates for the Agency and Career Services, for professional
/technical employees. This data was requested for projections being
done by C/SPD.
VII. Evaluated recent Agency Manpower Gains and Losses which
show a significant increase in our loss rate in May 1983. Indications
are that the Agency loss rate will be running about 10 percent higher
than anticipated for the remainder of the year - with DCI, DDA, and
DDI being the big losers. A proposal to increase the offsetting gains
for these areas will be made ASAP.
Special Projections
VIII. HRPS worked with OSO/Pers to complete a model which
structures their gains through the rest of the year to achieve their
on-duty and FIP ceilings. The model has been forwarded to OSO/Pers
and should help them to explain why the office is now overextended,
and how they will have to severely restrict internal and external
gains through the remainder of FY 1983.
IX. At the request of DDS&T Admin, HPPS developed S&T
strength/FrE forecasts showing five different scenarios. The models
were requested to provide insight into the impact of taking
alternative approaches to the problem of achieving FTP and on-duty
ceilings.
X. Completed the initial project to model the Agency impact
of various proposals to change the Federal Retirement Program. The
model is set up to provide maximum, mid-level, and minimum impacts of
a number of retirement proposals. The model has a number of
assumptions built into it, and HRPS has requested a review by Frank
Monan to ensure that the model assumptions conform to those previously
made in other material.
XI. A model was developed for OC which displayed their antici-
pated manpower requirements through calendar year 1983. The model was
requested by OC to ensure that the data they had developed was gen-
erally consistent with OP forecasts.
XII. Evaluated a request by DDS&T for an additional FIP alloca-
tion. The evaluation results, incorporated into a construction of
several special computer models incorporating various attrition pro-
jections as well as the hiring and transfer commitments that have
already been made.
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XIII. During the Comptroller meeting on 17 June 1983, DDI sub-
mitted estimates on Accessions and Attritions and FTP projections for
the remainder of FY 1983. HRPS reviewed these data and discussed our
findings with DDI/PMS/B&F. The HRPS major finding was that DDI's
estimate of attrition severely understated its historical attrition
rate by erroneously counting its transfer gains twice. Thus, DDI's
FTP projections significantly over estimate its potential FTP usage
for FY 1983.
XIV. Constructed four FY 1984 Directorate manpower flow models
of the DDO for D/PERS. The various models were constructed to dem-
onstrate the results of various combinations of FY 1984 manpower and
FTP/FTE increases. All models assumed FY 1984 attrition at the rate
of 110 percent of FY 1983's rate, and included four classes of Cps CTs
totaling 136.
XV. HRPS has provided Information Division with a paper on
Quality Control and Acceptance Sampling for suggested use in deter-
mining the accuracy of the OP data base. The paper proposes that 75
cases per year be checked against seven specific data fields for 1975
through 1980.
XVI. Met with an CA'E representative, who
requested information on the Statistical Analysis System (SAS) cap-
abilities. The problem dealt with matching =instructors and
students through a system which could be updated in an interactive
fashion through a user-oriented system. HRPS provided an explanation
of the system capabilities and provided an SAS listing of software
programs that may apply to OTE's problem.
XVII. The HRPS computer program for the Agency FI'E/Strength
forecast has now been modified to reflect actual internal gains and
/ losses, rather than only a "net" outflow figure. However, since this
approach would require the construction of artificial FY 1983 history
if it were used prior to FY 1984, it will be held in abeyance, except
for special problem cases, for use on 01 October 1983.
XVIII. HRPS completed the programming and initial running of a
new model designed to report current Operational CT Requirements. The
model, designed to report requirements monthly, has been debugged,
corrected, and briefed to D/PERS. A meeting is being requested with
the DDO/CMO and the DDO/Personnel officer to brief them on the new
model, and to allow them to critique its validity.
XIX. The C/CMS/DDO was briefed on the newly constructed DDO CT
requirements model recently developed in HRPS. As a result of the
briefing, C/CMS indicated satisfaction with the model and requested
that the data be structured by DDO/Division and the results be graphed
for DDO briefings.
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xx. I prepared a paper on Data Base Requirements for
Statistical Analysis in support of litigation cases. The paper has
been approved for presentation outside the Agency in August 1983.
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