FIVE YEAR PROJECTION OF CHANGES IN OS PROFESSIONAL AGE GROUPS

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP86-00024R000100070012-9
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: K
• Document Page Count: 4
• Document Creation Date: December 20, 2016
• Document Release Date: January 9, 2008
• Sequence Number: 12
• Publication Date: June 1, 1983
• Content Type: MF

Approved For Release 2008/01/09 :CIA-RDP86-000248000100070012-9
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ROUTING AND RECORD SHEET
SUBJECT: (Optional)
Five Year Projection of Changes in OS Professional Age Groups
/HRPs
NO.
ST
101 Ames
DATE
1 J
1983
une
TO: (Officer designation, room number, and
building)
DATE
OFFICER'S
COMMENTS (Number each comment to show From whom
RECEIVED
FORWARDED
INITIALS
b whom. Draw a line across column after each comment.)
1. DD/OIL=PP;&E ~ .
1001-~Aines
2. -
3?C/OS/Personnel
4E-63 Hqtrs.
~~
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
10.
ii.
12.
13. _
14.
15.
FORM ~~ O USE PREVIOUS
I-79 EDITIONS
AT
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MEMORANDUM FOR: C/OS/Personnel
CJFiRPS
STAT
SUBJECT Five Year Projection of
Changes in OS Professional
Age Groups
1. This memorandum responds to a recent request from your
representative, to update a previous HRPS STAT
projection of changes in the age groups of OS professional
employees. Based on the factors included in our modeling,
Security's projected age distribution through FY 1988 is close
to ideal because the ratio of younger employees relative to
older employees is evenly distributed (i.e. 50 percent of the
population is below age 40).
2. During the last three fiscal years Security's pro-
fessional careerists have increased in number at a rate of ap-
proximately 2 percent per year. The manpower increase has been
in the age groups 25-29 and 30-34. Since the strength increase
has been in the younger age groups, Security's age distribution
shows a pronounced spike in age group 25-29 (see Figure 1 la-
beled "Present Function"). In the two attachments, Figure 1
shows the actual numbers of employees in the various age groups
while Figure 2 depicts the relative percent of employees in the
various age groups. Based on fiscal years 1979 through 1982
data, two mathematical models were computed to predict the most
likely age group distribution of security officers. The first
model assumes that Security will maintain its present strength
of~ people (labeled "Constant Model" in Figure 1). The STAT
second model assumes that Security's strength will continue to
increase at a rate of 2 percent per year (labeled "2$ Growth
Model" in Figure 1).
3. Figure 1 shows the predicted age group distribution of
each model contrasted against the present age group distribu-
tion. The most important result, regardless of the model, is
that the age group spike in the "Current Function" moves into
the next age group (age 30-34). At steady state in both
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models, the spike remains within the 30-34 age group. More-
over, whether the "Constant Model" or "2% Growth Model" is con-
sidered, the proportion of people within each age group is vir-
tually identical for both models (see Figure 2). Thus, we can
expect that by 1988 the Security Officer population will be
significantly greater in the number of employees age 30 through
39 and that Security is not building a problem with hiring
young employees who could start blocking promotions as they get
older. Rather, the higher attrition rate at the younger age
groups prevents the build-up of employees within a specific age
group. The projected age distribution for 1988 remains
constant with a frequency spike at age group 30-34 and we can
not foresee any problems with Security's projected age
distribution.
STAT
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