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CIA-RDP86-00114R000100110005-3
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RIPPUB
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S
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33
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December 16, 2016
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August 18, 2005
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5
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Publication Date: 
February 1, 1981
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CIAPER
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DDA/MS OFFICIAL FILE COPY DO NOT REMOVE FROM 7C18 HQS secret February 1981 excnange secret N?_ 49 CDF-MORI "Only one-third of the people of the world are asleep at any given moment. The other two-thirds are awake and probably stirring up mischief somewhere." A quarterly publication for the exchange among DDA personnel of ideas, concepts, information, and techniques that are of common interest. WARNING NOTICE Intelligence Sources and Methods Involved Photographs in this issue carry the overall clas- sification of the article in which they appear FEATURE ............................................... 9 Morgan State University Professor Analyzes CIA Summer Fellowship Program (U) ...................................... 9 SERVICES Now What Was the Question? (U) ...... 14 The 18-Wheeler Fleet of the Agency (U) 17 The New Delta Data System (U) .......... 21 INFORMATION Motivation Is a By-Product of Belief (U) 24 The CIA Long-Range Planning Process (U) 28 SECRET 3 Approved For Release 2005/08/24: CIA-RDP86-00114R000100110005-3 Approved For Release 2005/08/24: CIA-RDP86-00114R000100110005-3 I thought that it might be useful to sum- marize for you how our National Intelligence Estimates are produced and to describe some recent developments and changes in our handling of that process. (U) About a year ago, the DCI authorized the establishment of the National Intelligence Council (NIC) as the organization responsible for producing formal interagency intelligence assessments. The NIC thereby became the lineal successor to the NIO system and its predecessor, the Office of National Es- timates, which had formerly carried out this responsibility. As Chairman of the NIC, I am charged by the DCI and by DD/NFA, with overall responsibility for making the new sys- tem work. (U) The "new" arrangements are based on much that is tried and true. National Es- timates continue to be issued by the DCI, who personally signs and authorizes the pub- lication of each, just as he always has. The substantive judgments and supporting data that go into each Estimate continue to be the responsibility of the individual National Intel- ligence Officer (NIO) presiding over that particular product. The NIO thus remains the key figure in the process. (U) There are currently EDVIOs in the NIC. Q have specific geographic responsibilities, two are concerned with military matters (strategic programs, and general purpose forces), and there is an NIO for Warning-the second hat that I wear. As Warning NIO, I oversee the production of interagency-approved Alert Memorandums for the policymaker on situations of potential warning importance. There are also two "NIOs-at-Large," whose chief role will be to help provide the kind of peer review of es- timates that had been provided in the old Board of National Estimates but that was Chairman, National Intelligence Council lacking in the NIO system. Two more and National Intelligence Officer for Warning "at-Large" NIOs will be added. (C) SECRET 5 Each NIO with a specific account is the DCI's senior staff officer for his or her area and assists the DCI in his participation in the National Security Council and its sub- committees; in contributing to briefings of the President, Congressional leaders, committees, and staffs; and in staying in close contact with senior State, Defense, NSC, and other policymaking officers in or- der to identify those questions of concern to them on which intelligence can assist. Equally important, he is responsible for see- ing that intelligence production actually does try to answer those questions, which is, after all, the real purpose of preparing National Intelligence Estimates. (C) Once the need for an Estimate is rec- ognized and the DCI has approved going ahead with it, the appropriate NIO convenes representatives of the Intelligence Commu- nity agencies to prepare written terms of ref- erence for the Estimate. At about the same time, the NIO selects a drafter to write the Estimate. As was the case under the NIO system that preceded the NIC, the NIO can draw on the entire Community in looking for the best analyst or analysts to do the job. For elaborate papers, especially those on com- plex military and technical subjects, the NIO may form one or more interagency working groups to do all or parts of the paper. (C) With the organization of the NIC, the NIOs have acquired another option in arranging for the services of experts to draft Estimates. We are in the process of assembling a small staff of highly experienced analysts who will be available to the NIOs as drafters. This staff, which we call our Anal tires c Group (AG), is headed by my deputy, In time, the AG should be able to take on respon- sibility for drafting many-but never all-of the Estimates we produce, thereby lessening the need to find drafters among already heavily burdened analysts assigned else- where. (U) At full strength, the AG will consist of about but we are building it slowly, going for quality rather than speed. AG members are and will be drawn from across the Intelligence Community, not just from NFAC or CIA, and each of its members will serve with the NIC for a 2- or 3-year rota- tional tour. Each must be a broad gauged analyst, ideally one with experience in sev- eral disciplinary fields or more than one broad geographic area. Even more impor- tant, we hope that each will have that rare combination of scholarship, diplomacy, and ability to produce simple, elegant prose that makes Estimates writers a breed apart. (U) Let's return again to the estimative proc- ess itself. Once the terms of reference for a new paper are agreed upon and a drafter is chosen, a first draft of the Estimate is written under the general guidance of the sponsor- ing NIO. It is normal practice for the NIO to employ a panel of outside consultants to re- view the paper and suggest ways to improve it. This may be done at various stages in producing the paper, the most important of which is at the point when an initial draft is complete. It is also at this point that internal consultants-the Senior Review Panel, the NIOs-at-Large, and others-review and constructively criticize the draft. (C) Once the NIO and his superiors are sat- isfied with the draft, it is distributed to the Intelligence Community agencies for their coordination. This is a vitally important part of the process. Its purpose is not to create a bland, homogenized paper that carefully ob- scures all differences of view. On the con- trary, it is intended as a step to resolve the trivial differences and illuminate the impor- tant ones. To do this well requires all the skill of the NIO, who must ensure that alternate interpretations are presented in parallel, with the supporting arguments arrayed so that the reader will understand not only the "what" but also the "why" of the different viewpoints. I should also emphasize that we are more interested in what the differing views are than in who holds them; dif- ferences among analysts of a single agency are just as important as differences among agencies. (C) The final stage in producing an Estimate is its presentation to the National Foreign Intel- ligence Board. The DCI issues Estimates with the advice of the Board. Each member has SECRET 7 the right to dissent from all or any part of an Estimate. Usually the Board ratifies papers on terms that have already been worked out at a lower level in the coordination process, but agency principals retain the right-and often exercise it-to have their own dissent- ing views expressed in their own way. (C) I have described the process as it normally unfolds, but we have made provision for tele- scoping these procedures when the occasion demands a quickly produced Estimate. The major annual Soviet strategic Estimate takes 6 months or more to prepare, and others take as long or longer, but using the stream- lined procedures introduced under the NIC, we have in several recent instances been able to turn out short, special Estimates within a week or two. We hope to make steady improvement in producing most Es- timates more expeditiously. (C) We are, of course, still in the relatively early stages of this new organizational ven- ture, and it is far too soon to pass judgment on it. Much remains to be done to make the system as efficient and as responsive as it needs to be. We intend that the changes al- ready made, plus those to follow, will equip us with the kind of system we must have in order to keep up with the demands for high-quality, timely Estimates odr masters will be placing on us throughout the turbu- lent 1980s and beyond. (U) feature MORGAN STATE UNIVERSITY PROFESSOR ANALYZES CIA SUMMER FELLOWSHIP PROGRAM (U) I was pleased to have been selected for the CIA's first participation in the National Urban League's Summer Fellowship Pro- gram. In this article, I will tell about this spe- cial program, how I became involved, and how the Agency became involved. Then I will give my views of the CIA as an outsider who became an insider for a few months in the summer of 1980. (U) enhance the expertise of faculty and admin- istrators, thereby enabling them to better prepare students for the challenges of the corporate and governmental worlds. (U) College and university instructors who wish to participate fill out applications for the Summer Fellowship Program. The staff of the program sends a referral book to more than 500 companies and government agen- cies, including a biographical profile of each program applicant. The participating com- pany or agency selects the applicants they would like to hire for summer positions of 6 weeks to 3 months. (U) The National Urban League is an organiza- tion whose purpose is to promote equal op- portunity for all citizens. The Summer Fellowship Program, one of the many pro- grams of this organization, places college professors at predominantly black colleges into projects with industry and government during the summer months. The basic objec- tive of the Summer Fellowship Program is to The idea for Agency involvement in the Ur- ban League Summer Fellowship Program was initiated by the Directorate EEO officers during an exploratory meeting with Vie Kauf- man, Director of the National Urban League Summer Fellowship Program. These initial efforts culminated in the Agency's planning and implementing of an orientation session for potential fellows. During the fall of 1979, 27 faculty members, representing different minority institutions of higher education, were brought to the Agency for initial inter- views. As a result of the interview and back- ground investigations, 10 instructors were selected for the program and placed in such areas as OD&E, OSO, OL, and OS. (U) Upon being notified that I was selected as a participant, I was filled with great anticipa- tion toward the experience of working for the CIA as well as the financial rewards of being employed during the summer. I knew, how- ever, that the CIA has not always been looked upon favorably by all segments of the population. Some of my colleagues felt that the CIA did not have a good reputation and suggested that I not involve myself with it. Others saw this as a great experience to be associated with one of the highest ranking governmental agencies. I felt honored to have been chosen and accepted my assign- ment enthusiastically. (U) Upon beginning my duties with OS's In- formation Systems Security Group (ISSG), I was overwhelmed at the security precautions at the CIA. The many briefings on security left me feeling that it would be difficult to live up to the security expectations at the CIA. The briefings, however, made me more aware of my actions at work and helped give me the necessary discipline for being a member of the Agency. (U) the ISSG Chief, greeted me warmly and assigned me to three major tasks for the summer of 1980. I was quite pleased at the challenging nature of the assignments. My first task was to evaluate and recommend effective techniques for improving computer security requirements for major contract proposals. Next, I was to develop various advanced degree programs in Computer Science, Management Informa- tion Systems, and Information Technology for new information security officers. My last task was to develop basic computer security courses which give information security of- ficers the necessary computer background to maximize security requirements for auto- mated data processing systems. These tasks allowed me to utilize the technical back- ground I received while working for General National Urban League Summer Fellow assigned to OS (U) Electric and Bendix, as well as the skills I have acquired as an instructor. (C) The assignments on which I worked helped me to generate the following objectives for myself: ? To expose Morgan State University's business, computer, and accounting stu- dents to the diverse career opportunities at the CIA. ? To develop more meaningful faculty rap- port with high-level officials at the CIA. ? To actively recruit excellent minority can- didates for diverse officials at the CIA. ? To consider being an educational com- puter consultant with the CIA or major industrial or business enterprises. ? To write a book entitled "Computer Se- curity for the Future" by 1981. (U) As an insider, I view the CIA as a well or- ganized, competent organization whose goal is to develop a high level of security for the United States of America. The Agency man- agement was totally committed to doing an excellent job for the protection of this coun- try. (U) The CIA is unquestionably an elitist gov- ernmental organization. My impression was that only the best qualified applicants with exceptional talents in technology, political science, economics, computers, mathemat- ics, physics, administration, personnel, se- curity, foreign languages, and education would have a chance to become members of the CIA. The CIA certainly offers a wide vari- ety of career paths for those individuals who can pass the rigorous set of employment requirements mandated by this organization. (U) I feel that the Summer Fellowship experi- ence with the CIA has been most rewarding. Not only has it been an excellent work experience, but I have felt genuinely ac- cepted and motivated by my superiors and coworkers with whom I came in contact. There is a degree of professionalism at the CIA that I have rarely found in any of the other four Summer Fellowship Programs in which I have participated. My supervisor made me feel as though I had a worthwhile contribution to make to the organization and encouraged me in all of my endeavors. I appreciate the opportunity to have worked with the best. (U) services NOW WHAT WAS THE QUESTION? (U) IOMS (U) Of every 10 Americans who drink alcohol, one will eventually develop alcoholism. That fact startles most people and convinces many that alcoholism must be increasing by leaps and bounds. Not true. The 10 percent prevalence rate has remained relatively sta- ble over the past few decades. What has changed dramatically is public awareness of the problem's scope. Today alcoholism is recognized as a major health problem, and its victims are treated more openly and more effectively than was the case even 5 years ago. Similarly, although neither alcoholism nor attempts to help alcoholics are new to the Agency, a formal Alcohol Program has been operating within OMS for a little more than two years. (U) To explain what the Agency Alcohol Pro- gram is, it's first necessary to emphasize what it's not: It's not a disguised temperance movement, it's not concerned with social drinking, and it's not dedicated to the propo- sition that the only good employee is a teetotaling employee. (U) Now that we've reassured you (we hope) that the Program is not an attempt to dry out the Agency, let's focus more specifically on what the Program is and how it can help you as employee or supervisor, a member of your family, or a coworker. The Program's func- tions are several. First, it's an educational program which conducts alcohol information programs for all employees and special training sessions for supervisors. It's also a helping program, which offers confidential assistance, treatment referral, and ongoing support to all Agency employees and depen- dents experiencing alcohol problems. Finally, the Program is a service for management, which provides a constructive way for su- pervisors to deal with an employee whose job performance is deteriorating. (U) The Program's success in its helping role depends, to a great extent, on its effective- ness in its role as educator. Before the Al- cohol Program can help anyone, it must con- vince everyone-employees as well as supervisors-of a few basic truths: that al- coholism is a disease, that it can be treated, and that the active concern and cooperation of those around the drinking alcoholic can force even the most reluctant drinker into a treatment program which may well save his life. (U) Challenging prejudices and identifying barriers to treatment are major emphases in the Program's educational efforts. Although alcoholism was classified as a disease as long ago as 1956, the suspicion remains that it's a disease nice people don't get. Since most alcoholics are "nice people" like you and me (fewer than 3 percent fit the stereotypical image of a skid-row drinker), *Alcoholism is an equal opportunity disease. For the sake of convenience and in keeping with the mistakes of history, the masculine pronoun is used throughout. (U) they go to great lengths to conceal evidence of a disease they believe "nice people" shouldn't have. Well-intentioned friends, family, coworkers, and supervisors unwit- tingly assist the alcoholic in this life-threatening denial by avoiding and cov- ering up the drinking in the hope that the problem will go away. The problem will not go away. Misguided kindness kills alcoholics, and the Alcohol Program stresses that con- frontation by trained people is the only constructive action to take. (U) For supervisors, job performance is the key to effective use of the Program. If an employee's performance or conduct is less than satisfactory, the supervisor is encour- aged to contact the Alcohol Program to determine whether alcohol may be the cause. If alcohol is the problem, a treatment plan is developed for the individual, and the referring supervisor is kept informed of the employee's progress throughout treatment. Timely referrals by supervisors have been critical in saving the jobs of many Alcohol Program clients and the lives of a few. (U) Supervisory referral is not, however, re- quired for admission to the Alcohol Program. Many employees, concerned about their own drinking or the drinking of a spouse, parent, or teen-aged child contact the Program di- rectly. Many of these self-referrals are seek- ing an opinion on what they believe to be a developing problem; some are looking for support in handling a problem of long stand- ing; still others want suggestions on. treat- ment facilities. Whatever the request, all are 25 accorded complete confidentiality. (U) If the Alcohol Program can help you or someone you know by providing confidential assistance or scheduling an alcohol aware- THE 18-WHEELER FLEET OF THE AGENCY (U) Former Chief, Freight Traffic Branch/ CD/SD/OL The Agency has many unsung heroes and many who merrily go about their daily tasks within their respective components support- ing the mission of the Agency. But none probably affect so many operations as the few Agency tractor-trailer drivers. (U) Yes, the Agency has nine tractor-trailer drivers assi ned to the he o a requirements and overtime obligations of their job would stagger anyone. Last year these nine men each worked an average of 1,000 hours overtime, which is equivalent to six months of work. So in essence, each driver worked one and one-half man-years during 1979. (U) Agency drivers are required to attend an eight-week tractor-trailer school in addition to a National Safety Council course, a defen- sive driving course, and lectures on Agency transportation and security procedures. Drivers are required to have a valid state driver's license, pass an annual medical examination, and also pass a Department of Army driving course and examination. (U) The present corps of drivers ranges in longevity from 1 year to 29 years-all on heavy trucks in the Agency, with the average driver having been on duty with the Agency about 15 years. (U) Some of the normal daily support which Agency personnel take for granted is pro- vided by the Agency drivers. The tractor-trailer drivers deliver all the admin- istrative su lies and equipment from 42-foot trailer-load, and sometimes two loads, is delivered daily to north dock at Headquarters in the early morning hours. Classified waste, trash, and equipment are hauled to special disposal facilities which are beyond the metropolitan Washington area. The drivers meet an aver- age of four airplanes each week, and deliver Approved For Release 2005/08/24: CIA-RDP86-00114R000100110005-3 Approved For Release 2005/08/24: CIA-RDP86-00114R000100110005-3 classified loads throughout the Intelligence Community, that is, to Headq uarters, Fort Meade, Pentagon, National Se- curity Council, and many other overt and covert sites. (S) The drivers are briefed on projects that only the operating component personnel are aware of. The drivers, crossing many division and component lines, are cleared for entire programs and not just segments or projects. Their security and dependability must be be- yond reproach. (S) Trips that are over 300 miles require two drivers in order to comply with on-duty requirements of the Interstate Commerce Commission, under which the Agency must operate. No driver can exceed 10 hours straight duty without a minimum rest period, so Agency tractor-trailers have sleeper cabs in order for the drivers to change every 4 hours to preclude stopping with classified or sensitive loads. When classified or sensitive Priver, stands beside one of the CID wheelers (U) equipment is moved, one driver must remain with the truck at all times. Sometimes OS furnishes escorts who follow the truck from loading to unloading. The drivers do not carry weapons. (S) Agency drivers haul a variety of commod- ities, such as medicine, flammables, explo- sives, corrosives, and radioactive materials. Many of these hazardous cargos require special handling, documentation, and routing around populated areas. The Agency must "knock on wood" because our drivers and trucks have never been involved in a major or fatal accident. (U) The Agency truck fleet last year traveled approximately 300,000 miles to deliver and transport cargo and to meet the aircraft in support of Agency requirements. An Agency driver's life belongs to the Agency because of the oddball hours, many days on the road, and the late hours that must be worked. The next time your office has a transportation requirement for one of the Agency trucks, the drivers would appreciate it if the work could be scheduled from 8 a.m. to 5 p.m., Monday through Friday, in order to free up their weekends and holidays. (U) THE NEW DELTA DATA SYSTEM (U) IODP (U) Several years ago, ODP/Applications assembled an Agency-wide group to define requirements for a new series of terminals to upgrade support to users. The result is a new device to provide a variety of capabilities in an interactive environment or a stand-alone mode. Although still in the acceptance stage, the new Delta Data System has attracted wide attention in the Agency and from other government departments. ODP/Processing has about 75 of these systems in a variety of operational situations being tested by pro- grammers and technical personnel. (U) The Delta 7260T Intelligent Terminal Sys- tem is a microprocessor-based, user-programmable display terminal system for information applications. The 7260T terminal is provided with or without diskette storage. (U) The key attributes of the 7260T System are: ? Text Processing ? File Management ? BASIC Language Support (U) Text Processing functions allow the oper- ator to manipulate and to make alterations and revisions to existing text stored in the terminal's memory. Words, sentences, whole paragraphs, or blocks of text can be moved around or acted on by a variety of text processing functions under operator com- mand or via program control. The manipu- lated text is highlighted so that it can be easily distinguished from the surrounding text. (U) File Management functions allow the oper- ator to establish and maintain random or sequential files on diskette. File Management support is a function of the Local Disk Op- erating System. (U) BASIC Language support, provided by the BASIC Interpreter, allows users to create programs at the terminal and store them on diskettes or at the host computer. The user programs can be called up from diskette storage or from the host computer via keyed operator commands. Operator interaction with terminal-resident user programs is also performed via a set of keyed commands. (U) Other key features of the 7260T are: ? Formatted data entry/validation ? Split screen operation ? Full cursor control ? Cursor addressing and sensing ? Paging/scrolling ? Tabulation ? Program function keys ? Operator prompting ? Self-diagnostics ? ASCII/Alternate character sets ? Printer output support (U) Two of the more unique features will be the addition of diskette storage (not shown in the photograph) and the split screen capability. Diskette storage consists of a separate, dual-drive diskette unit. The 7260 Video Dis- play Terminal supports either of two diskette units, one that accommodates standard 8-inch diskettes and one that accommodates 5-inch mini-diskettes. Both units record data in standard density on both sides of the diskette. Sector length is the same for either size diskette - 560 characters. (U) The standard diskette provides a formatted data storage capacity of 681,706 characters. The mini-diskette provides a formatted data storage capacity of 191,471 characters. (U) Disk access is provided by keyed operator commands, by commands received from the host computer, and by commands executed by the resident user program. The host or resident user program can access disks di- rectly without interfering with the display screen. (U) Split Screen allows the operator to divide display memory into as many as eight dis- crete segments (splits). Split dimensions are established by the operator via a Split Al- location Table. Splits can be arranged on the screen in any manner, but splits should not overlap. Vertical and horizontal lines dis- played on the screen define the boundaries of each split. Each split is functionally in- dependent of the other and may be operat- ing in a different mode. The operator can move between splits via keyed commands. The terminal's memory can be allocated to different splits on a percentage basis. (U) With the above features, the Delta Data promises to be of great value to those who can utilize its full capabilities. It is expected that, over time, a library of user programs will be available for exchange. ODP will act as a clearing house for user developed routines. A word of caution, however; using the 7260 can be addictive. (U) information MOTIVATION IS A BY-PRODUCT OF BELIEF (U) OMS (U) Morale, status, and motivation are not really tangible things. We say that the esprit de corps of a military unit is very high; so is that of a terrorist group. The status of a re- ligious leader is very high; so is that of an underworld chieftain in his organization. (U) Morale and status are by-products of our total environment and how we react to and are seen by ourselves and others in that environment. Motivation is belief in what we are doing. The deeper the belief, the stronger the commitment. Commitment nur- tures enthusiasm, energy, and will. This kind of activity promotes achievement and suc- cess; hence, status. Achievement and suc- cess lead to motivation. (U) EMPLOYEE MOTIVATION (U) A job provides full motivational value to the organization when it satisfies all relevant needs which may be present in the person performing it. A balanced job blends all lev- els of need so that managers may maintain a perspective on group productivity and in- dividual fulfillment. (U) To accomplish this balance, a voluntary interaction of people at all levels needs to be created. The natural by-products derived from this action are high morale, status, and motivation. (U) Those who participate in designing these concepts must have an awareness of real needs and conditions, knowledge of the organization and management, and most importantly, freedom of thought. The best results occur when all personnel participate in a free spirit that finds their occupational endeavors and their personal needs, that is, physical, security, social, esteem and self-fulfillment also congruent with their per- sonal, familial, social, occupational, and spiritual philosophy (figure 1). (U) ORGANIZATIONAL MOTIVATION (U) An organization and the people within it who, believe in their occupational endeavor plan toward a kind of "continual becoming" rather than a final goal. The organization and its people must continually change if the organization is to survive over time. (U) Past IBM president Tom Watson, Jr. said, "The basic philosophy, spirit, and drive of an organization have far more to do with its rel- ative achievements than do technological or economical resources, organizational struc- ture, innovation, and timing. Three basics paramount to an organization's beliefs should be: respect for the individual, the best customer service possible, and excellence in the pursuit of goals." (U) Each of us in stating our objectives learns to specify only the "what" and "when"; to avoid the "why" and "how." That is as it should be, provided we have an understand- Figure 1 Personal Philosophy Need Employee Beliefs & Needs Commitment Enthusiasm Energy Will Morale Achievements Status ing of Agency philosophy prior to stating our objectives and goals; that is, what we as an Agency believe, and what the basis is for that belief. Once a mutually agreeable philosophy is reached, we then have a plan against which to weigh our goals and objectives-"why" we have set this goal and "how" will it contribute to the fulfillment of Agency ideals. (U) For the Agency to succeed, managers must insure that our ethical standards are well defined and that employee work is sys- tematically judged against these standards. Along with this, managers are required to be alert for and anticipate problems and put themselves in a position to cope with the problems when they become real. They do not confine themselves to tactics and strat- egy alone but must continually evaluate organizational capabilities and intentions. (U) It is clear that ethical standards must apply evenly and with no exceptions, that these standards take precedence. The fact that cipline. It makes managing more effective, and it helps avoid legal difficulties. (U) While we all should be aware of the major issues involved and the specific choices to be made, an ethical code is the concern of the chief executive-the ideas might come from below, but the responsibility comes from the top. (U) The ultimate value of any management re- search an organization undertakes lies in the production of information that enables peo- ple to believe in change. The ability to con- template the future or estimate probability makes people want to change. The idea of change enables people to plan toward a continual becoming-this attitude evokes a maintaining interest to learn (figure 2). (U) EMPLOYEE AND ORGANIZATION MOTIVA- TION (U) Well defined personal and organizational ideals make it less difficult to understand everyone knows the rules is a great dis- Figure 2 left, Figure 3 right Mojor Issues Specific Choices 1 I Standards Ethical Code Valdes organaaeonal Beliefs