POPULATION GROWTH NEEDS 'FAR MORE ATTENTION'

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP86B00985R000200100008-2
• Release Decision: RIFPUB
• Original Classification: K
• Document Page Count: 2
• Document Creation Date: December 16, 2016
• Document Release Date: December 17, 2004
• Sequence Number: 8
• Content Type: MAGAZINE

Population growth ,needs "far more attention
The following extracts are taken
from a speech delivered by Robert S.
McNamara, President of the World Bank,
at the Massachusetts Institute of Tech-
nology, Cambridge, Massachusetts,
U.S.A., on April 28, 1977.
Short of thermonuclear war itself, popula-
tion growth is the gravest issue the world
faces over the decades immediately ahead.
Indeed, in many ways rampant popula-
tion growth is an even more dangerous
thermonuclear war, for it is intrinsically
less subject to rational safeguards, and
less amenable to organized control.
The population growth of the planet is
not in the exclusive control of a few
governments, but rather in the hands of
literally hundreds of millions of individual
parents who will ultimately determine the
outcome.
That is what makes the population
threat-even more than the nuclear
threat-diffuse and intractable. And that
is why it must be faced-like the nuclear
threat-for what it inevitably is: both a
central determinant of mankind's future,
and one requiring far more attention of the
world community than it is presently
receiving.
Last year the world's total population
passed the four billion mark. On the face of
it, the event was not very dramatic. It
marked, of course, the largest number of
human beings ever to have been alive
simultaneously on the planet-and thus
was a record of sorts. But that particular
record is broken every year. And will con-
tinue to be broken every year long beyond
the life span of anyone alive today.
Barring a holocaust brought on by man
or nature, the world's population tonight-
as we sit here-is the smallest it will ever
be again.
How did it reach a population of four
billion?
For the first 99 per cent of man's
existence, surprisingly slowly. For the last
1 per cent of his history, in a great rush.
It took mankind more than a million
years to reach a population of 1 billion.
But the second billion required only 120
years; the third billion 32 years; and the
fourth billion 15 years. If one postulates
that the human race began with a single
pair of parents, the population has had to
double only 31 ti ~lt$v 6l Kgfgfie
huge
o?al
t
At the current global growth rate of
about 2 per cent, the world's population
will add a fifth billion in about 11 years.
But these global totals, of course,
obscure wide demographic differences
between the developed and developing
countries...
From 1750 to 1850 the developed
countries grew annually by 1.5 million
people and the developing countries by 3
million; from 1850 to 1950, by 5 million
and 7 million, respectively; and from 1950
to 1975, by 1.1 million and 48 million.
It now appears that a significant decline
in fertility may haveat last begun in the
The ultimate size of stationary population'
in selected developing countries
(In millions)
Ultimate stationary population
Percentage
increase
caused by
NRR' of 1.0 NRR of 1.0
two decades
Country Pop. 1975 achieved in Yr. 2000 achieved in Yr. 2020
of delay
India 620 1,400 2,000
43
Brazil 110 275 390
42
Bangladesh 76 245 400
63
Nigeria 65 200 320
60
Mexico 62 175 270
54
Source: Tomas Freika, TheFutureof Population Growth: Alternative Paths to Equilibrium, Population Council, NewYork,
1973.
The stationary population level will be reached about 70 years after the date on which a NRR of 1.0 is realized.
2Net reproduction rate: the number of daughters a woman would have, under prevailing fertility and mortality patterns.
who would survive to the mean a e of childbearing.
005/01/10 : C1A-RDP86B0.0,985R000200100008-2
 developing coup p ' chJiA13r9RA,g 20 WliWdlPEdC TgppnAgggop 4AQ20010QPt98e and
~p present levels of re
fully conclusive, but the indications are
that the crude birth rates have fallen over
the past two decades by an average of
about 6 points, or nearly 13 per cent
(the crude birth rate is the number of live
births a year, for every 1,000 of
population).
By major region, the decline has
6.5 points in Asia; 5.4 points in
America; and 2.3 points in Africa. .
Further,. the decline appears to
been
Latin
have
been general and widespread. It has
occurred in 77 of the 88 countries for
which estimates are available.
If these indications are confirmed by the
censuses scheduled for.1980, then what
importance. It would mean that the period
of rapid acceleration in the rate of growth
of the world's population has finally
reached its peak and is now definitely
moving downward toward stabilization.
But, as welcome as this is, the fact
remains that the current rate of decline in
fertility in the developing countries is too
slow to avoid their ultimately arriving at
stationary populations far in excess of
acceptable levels. (A stationary population
is one that for a long time has had a
constant replacement-level fertility, and
therefore also has a growth rate equal to
zero and a constant age composition.)
Unless governments, through appro-
priate policy action, can accelerate the
reduction in fertility, the global popula-
tion may not stabilize below 11 billion. That
would be a world none of us would want to
live in.
But governments can take action, and
can accelerate the process, given the
resolve and determination to do so.
The critical point is this: for every decade
of delay in achieving a net reproduction
rate of 1.0-replacement-level fertility-
the ultimate steady-state world population
will be approximately 15 per cent greater
(see table).
Governments, then, must avoid the
severe penalties of procrastination, and try
to hasten the process forward.
But how?
The causes and determinants of fertility
reduction are extremely complex, but it
appears likely that there are a number of
key linkages between that reduction and
certain specific elements of socio-
economic development.
The factors that appear to be the most
important are health, education, broadly
distributed economic growth, urbaniza-
ion, and the enhanced slat or `o en. These factors i 131 OV
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stow to be fully effective.
part of governments, the current popula-
tion in the developing world is going to
continue to grow at rates very substantially
in excess of those that would permit far
more economic and social progress.
There are two broad categories of
interventions that governments must
undertake: those designed to encourage
couples to desire smaller. families; and
those designed to provide parents with the
means to implement that desire.
. The first set of interventions sets out to
alter the social and economic environment
search seeking better techniques an
services.
Both categories
necessary.
Recent studies confirm that the effect family planning programs is greatest whet
they are joined to efforts designed t promote related social goals.
We know that eventually the world';
population will have to stop growing
That is certain.
What is uncertain is how. And when. A
what level. And with what result.
"We can avoid a world of 11 billion and all the misery
that such an impoverished and crowded planet would imply
if we will but act."
that tends to promote fertility, and by
altering it to create a demand among
parents for a new and smaller family norm.
.And the second set of interventions
supplies the requisite means that will
make that new norm attainable.
To create the demand for a change in
family norm, governments should try to
Reduce current infant and child
mortality rates sharply.
Expand basic education and sub-
stantially increase the proportion of
girls in school. ,
Increase the productivity of small.-
holders in the rural areas, and expand
earning opportunities in the cities for
low-income groups.
Put greater stress on more equit-
able distribution of income and
services in the drive for greater eco-
nomic growth.
And, above all else, raise the status of
women socially, economically, and
politically.
To satisfy the demand for a change in
family norms, governments and the inter-
national community should
Provide a broad choice of the present
contraceptive techniques and services
to parents.
Improve the delivery systems by which
parents can get the services they
wish.
We who are alive today can determine
the answers to those questions. By ou
action-or inaction-we will shape th,
world for all generations to come.
We can avoid a world of 11 billion ant
all the misery that such an impoverishes
and crowded planet would imply. But w4
cannot avoid it by continuing.intothe nex
quarter century the ineffective approach ti
the problem of population that has charac
terized the past twenty-five years.
Man is still young in cosmic terms.
He has been on earth for a million year:
or so. And our modern ancestor, Mom(
sapiens, for a hundred thousand years.
But the universe of which he is a part i some twenty billion years old.
And if we represent the history of th4
universe by a line a mile long, then moderr
man has appeared on that line for only i
fraction of an inch.
In that time perspective, he is recent
and tentative,, and perhaps even ex.
perimental. He makes mistakes. And, yet
if he is truly sapiens--thinking and wise-
then surely there is promise for him.
Problems, yes. But very great promise-
if we will but act.
A copy of the entire text of this speech may
be obtained from the Publications Unit,
World Bank, Washington, D.C., 20433,
U.S.A.
Finance,
"
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