YOUR INTEREST IN DINNER DISCUSSION GROUPS

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP86B00985R000200110010-8
• Release Decision: RIFPUB
• Original Classification: K
• Document Page Count: 5
• Document Creation Date: December 16, 2016
• Document Release Date: December 4, 2004
• Sequence Number: 10
• Publication Date: April 28, 1977
• Content Type: MF

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28 April 1977
MEMORANDUM FOR: Director of Central Intelligence
FROM Robert R. Bowie
Deputy to the DCI for National Intelligence
SUBJECT : Your Interest in Dinner Discussion Groups.
1. Action Required: None; for information only.
2. After mulling over your idea of organizing occa-
sional dinner and discussion groups, and obtaining valuable
suggestions from the NIOs, the IC Staff, and the DDI, I
would like to offer the following thoughts.
3. Objectives. I am assuming that the meetings are
intended to serve several purposes:
0 To encourage the Community to participate
more openly and actively in responsible,
informed debate on issues of national im-
portance;
? to improve the quality as well as the scope
of our communication with "the outside,"
including academe, the Congress and the press,
by sharing some-of our more interesting views ';
and findings;
to benefit from the intellectual stimulation
and insights to be derived from such communica-
tion; and
? to demonstrate the qualities of knowledgeability,
relevance, analytic excellence and objectivity
in our work, and thus to improve our public image.
4. If these are the objectives to be served, we shall
have to consider carefully what format or structure we want
for the meetings, the kinds. of topics that would be suitable,
and the number and mix of participants that would make for a
productive discussion.
5. Two Approaches. As I see it, there are two quite
different approaches to such meetings; both may be worthwhile,
but the differences between them should not become blurred:
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?
A small, unstructured, informal meeting, put
together on relatively short notice, built
around the availability of a distinguished
individual who could provide us with stimula-
tion, an unusual viewpoint or an exploration
of a novel issue or a topical subject of
concern to us.
? A larger, more structured, seminar-type
meeting, with agenda and papers, all well
planned in advance, around.a subject area in
which we are deeply engaged or planning to
become engaged, or where exposure of our work
to outside expertise could be mutually bene-
ficial.
6. Format, Topics, People. The social aspects of the
meetings could be the same for both approaches--participants
would assemble in the DCI's dining area for drinks and dinner,
and would then adjourn to the DCI Conference Room for after-
dinner discussion. In all other respects, the two approaches
would be different.
7. The small, informal discussions would have a guest
list of perhaps 10-12 persons -- some combination of academic,
policy level and intelligence-analytic talent. The featured
guest might lead off with a theme, and the discussion could
then flow freely. I gather that some former DCIs (NcCone,.
Colby, Bush) did on occasion host such informal dinners with
good results. The occasion would often simply be the presence
in Washington of some interesting person visiting here
other business. The choice of topics and the mix of attendees
for such meetings could thus fall out logically from the choice
of person. For example, if Robert McNamara were available, we
might ask him to address the question of the role of multi-
lateral lending as a North-South issue. Participants might
be drawn from such administration luminaries as Dick Cooper
and Julius Katz at State, Tony Solomon and Fred Bergsten at
Treasury, Roger Hansen at NSC; a sprinkling of academic talent,
say, a financial policy expert (e.g., Joe Pechman at Brookings),
someone concerned about the LDC economic plight (e.g., Charlie
Kindleberger at MIT) and a monetary economist (e.s., Wilson
Schmidt at VPI) ; a journalist (e. g. , Hobart:: Rower of the Post);
and some of our more articulate in-house politica?--economic
talent, such as Maurice Ernst, Allen Goodman, Dave Overton,
etc. For such informal sessions, clearly, there would be no
dearth of interesting people and topics. Some c: _La-:pies:
? Walter Levy (private consultant) --- The Petroleums
Industry Under Siege.
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? Jorge Dominquez (Harvard) -- Castro's Perspective
on US-Cuban Relations.
? Wolfgang Panofsky (Stanford) -- Is There a Future
for Nuclear Power?
? Thomas Hughes (Carnegie Foundation) -- The Nexus
between Intelligence. and Policymaking.
? Chester Crocker (Georgetown) -- Whither Apartheid
in South Africa?
Murray Mitchell (NOAH) _ How Predictable is Weathe
'Stephen Schneider (Colorado)
In some cases, the keynoter might also be asked to address
a larger audience in the auditorium.
8. The larger seminar-type meetings would require more
substantial preparation and a longer lead-time, since they
would aim not simply at stimulation and exploration, but would
seek a serious contribution to, or critique of, our ongoing
work. Such meetings would be more in the nature of a mini-
conference, with'a prepared paper or papers circulated in
advance, and a careful selection of invited experts to offer
comments on or reactions to our work. Alternatively, this
format could also be used to explore with various agencies
or individuals the feasibility or desirability of some new
Community initiative. The guest list for such meetings could
be substantially larger, say, as many as 20 participants a.nd,
perhaps a few additional observers. As regards topics, the following three examples might illustrate the kinds of issues
that would be suitable for this format (culled from a much
larger list-of candidates proposed by N,IOs and DDI elements)...
? "Political-Economic Repercussions of the Soviet
Petroleum Shortfall" --
CIA's recent projections of Soviet oil production
to the 80s raises fundamentally important questions
about the Soviet leadership's ability to sustain its
present pattern of resource allocation. From what sec-
tor or sectors can the leadership draw the large invest-
ment resources it will require to avoid unacceptable
energy and balance of payments deficits five-to-ten
years hence? To what extent are these resources in
fact fungible? How will the Soviet power position be
affected? How will the leadership meet its vital com-
modity supply commitments to Eastern Europe? Its tech-
nology import requirements to foster productivity
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growth? etc. A well-structured, serious discussion of
these questions could be stimulating and productive
at this time. A thematic paper on the subject. could
be drawn from CIA's ongoing study on the Soviet economy
and an interesting mix of participants could be as-
sembled on this topic. It would include Soviet energy
specialists (Bob Campbell, Indiana), Soviet economists
(Abe Bergson, Harvard), general economists (Laurie
Klein, Pennsylvania; Fred Hoffman, RAND), policy level
people (Bob Hormats, NSC; Harry Berghold, Assistant to
Schlesinger; Fred Bergsten, Treasury; Steve Bosworth,
State; Bill Nordhaus, CEA), Congressional staff (John
Koehler, Congressional Budget Office; John Hardt,
Congressional Research Service; Grenville Garside,
Senator Jackson's Staff Director, etc.); an analytically-
minded journalist (Bob Keatley, Wail Street Journal) and
so forth.
? What Can the Intelligence Community Contribute
(in Collection and Analysis) to the Study of
the Food-and-Population Problem?"
The DDI has proposed "The World Food Problem" as
an interesting dinner meeting topic (Ref: Hank KnocheTs
April 6 memo to you), including an excellent list of
participants. In reconnoitering this topic further,
however, it has become apparent that conferences on the
food problem are currently very much in vogue, and that
the topic as such is.probably receiving as much atten-
tion as it deserves. It may be preferable, therefore..,"-
to ;focus the topic on the food-population nexus,. and
specifically on the intelligence role in the study of
that nexus. There are divergent views in the. govern-
mental community as to whether we have a special con-
tribution to make in this area, and aq airing of these
views would be instructive. Because of his intimate
familiarity with every aspect of US agricultural
policy, and his superb objectivity, we-feel that D.
Gale Johnson, Provost of the University of Chicago,
would make an excellent chairman for such a meeting,
which could be kept relatively small. The best time
for the meeting would be in the fall, after the new
team in Agriculture has had its first: experience living
with intelligence through a harvest cycle.
? US Government Support for a Soviet Research
Institute"
This issue is now ripe for an action--oriented dinner
meeting that would seek to devel.op a consensus within
the National Security community as to our role in this
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venture. Much attention has been paid of late to the
problems of academic research and training in the
Soviet-East European field--the drying up of government
and foundation financial support, the failure of the
universities to replenish existing scholarship, the
lack of an effective organized academic research con-
tribution to the key issues of interest to government--
all these have been extensively aired, most recently in
an all-day session on the Hill, organized by Dave Ab-
shire of the Georgetown Center, and chaired by Congress-
man Zablocki. There emerged from that session a clear
need for an Executive Branch action group to work with
the academics on the development of an institutional
setting that will permit federal research funds, with
Congressional blessing, to flow into this vital field
on a sustained basis, and that will generate relevant
research on a range of issues not now adequately ad-
dressed in our in-house analytic work. While there are
wide differences of view on the precise details of such
an institutional setting, the need for it and the kinds
of output desired from it are widely endorsed. What
would be very helpful now is an organized approach to
the problem within the Executive Branch, particularly
among its national security elements. To this end, a
well-prepared small dinner meeting of the key players
in State, Defense, CIA, and National Science Foundation
(which has a strong interest and available funds) could
kick-off such an approach. We would prepare an issues
paper and participants would include (State) Tony Lake,
Hal Saunders, Ray Platig; (Defense) Gene Fubini, Jerry
Deneen, Andy Marshall and the new Under Secretary fog
Policy, yet to be named; (NSF) Tom Jones and Ed Grey.
9. The last of these three topics is probably the most
immediately ready for scheduling, inasmuch as the issue is
ripe, we are very actively involved, and NSF has some "seed
capital" that it may be prepared to allocate to this effort
quickly. We could probably schedule this session for late May.
10. If this whole approach meets with your approval, we.
could begin to develop a program of periodic dinner meetings
along these lines, beginning with the Soviet research institute
meeting in late May. Following this, we might schedule addi-
tional dinners on a trial basis at roughly one-month intervals.
11. This memorandum has been coordinated with the DDI and
the IC Staff.
Concur:
Proceed as outlined:
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