LETTER TO MR. WAYNE S. SMITH FROM STANSFIELD TURNER

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP86B00985R000200180010-1
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: K
• Document Page Count: 3
• Document Creation Date: December 16, 2016
• Document Release Date: December 28, 2004
• Sequence Number: 10
• Publication Date: April 9, 1979
• Content Type: LETTER

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9 APR 1979
Dear Wayne:
I look forward to your participation in an evening discussion
and dinner at CIA Headquarters on Thursday, 12 April, as one of a
small company of responsible officials and specialists concerned
with Cuban affairs. Our discussion will be focused on the Cuban
domestic scene, which we may be prone to neglect because of our
greater interest in Cuba's current foreign adventures. Hence, with
some license, our subject is: "Imperial Cuba: the Home Front."
I do not suggest that the subject has been altogether neglected.
Some observers have gone so far as to suggest that Africa will be
Cuba's "Vietnam." Moreover, it is true that the number of Cuban
military personnel in Africa (about 35,000) is roughly 1.2% of the
labor force, or nearly twice the percentage of the United States
labor force in Vietnam (0.65%) in 1968. So far, however, the
domestic impact of this Cuban commitment seems to have been wholly
manageable.
Nevertheless, Cuba does face major problems. These include
economic and related social pressures that are mainly generated by
the low world price of sugar though they evidently are attributed,
certainly by some Cubans, possibly by very many, to the African involve-
ment. In any case, it is reasonable to assume that we shall be hearing
increasingly from new elements in the Cuban elite. These are sure to
include returning African veterans (both military and non-military) as
well as the so-called "technocrats." The latter have been in evidence
for some years, but they have not yet attained positions of influence.
in the hierarchy. The Cuban power elite, except for still-active members
of the pre-Castro communist party, is still relatively young.. Neverthe-
less, over the next decade, the regime is likely to face increasing
pressures, including the familiar revolution of rising expectations, as
a post-revolutionary generation makes its growing demands upon the
limited political and economic Cuban resource base. The impact of events
upon-the economy of Cuba and upon the composition and coherence of the
ruling groups in Cuba is clearly a subject we should explore.
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Our discussion will be led off by Professors Jorge Dominguez of
Harvard and Edward Gonzalez of U. C. L. A., both of whom are productive
scholars of Cuban affairs who have recently visited that country. Our
other outside guests will come mainly from the State Department. From
inside CIA, among others, I am inviting the Chief and two analysts
from our Cuba Analytic Center. I am enclosing an unclassified paper
prepared by three of our analysts for a recent academic conference
that may help to fuel our discussion. It is my expectation that after
brief introductory remarks by our visiting professors we shall have
a general discussion into which all will enter with vigor.
The plan for our evening is as follows: The company will assemble
in my conference room (7D64) in the CIA Headquarters Building in Langley
between 5:30 and 6:00. Refreshments will be served. Our discussion will
then begin at 6:00 and continue until approximately 9:00. Dinner will be
served at 7:00 at the conference table.
I have asked of our Academic Relations Staff to complete
the arrangements. ease have your office address any questions you may
have to him. His telephone number is
Yours,
_,I. Stansf 1Eld Turneg
Enclosure
Mr. Wayne S. Smith
Director of Cuban Affairs
Department of State
Washington, D. C. 20520
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Letter to fir. Wayne S. Smith
Distribution:
Orig. - Addressee
1 - DCI
1 - DDCI
1 - Exec. Reg.
1 - DD/NFA
1 - NFAC Reg.
3 - NFAC/CAR
NFAC/CAIN
(5 April 1979)
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