ECONOMIC, POLITICAL, AND SOCIAL CONSEQUENCES OF URBANIZATION IN LESS DEVELOPED COUNTRIES RESEARCH REQUIREMENTS

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP86B00985R000200210017-0
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: K
• Document Page Count: 3
• Document Creation Date: December 16, 2016
• Document Release Date: January 3, 2005
• Sequence Number: 17
• Publication Date: July 9, 1979
• Content Type: MF

Approved For Releas / i CIA'RDP86BOO985ROOO iOO1. -
9 July 1979
MEMORANDUM FOR: ACAR, NFAC
FROM OGCR/ERAC/FP
SUBJECT . Economic, Political, and Social Consequences
of Urbanization in Less Developed Countriesf.
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1. It is suggested that the above subject be considered as the
focus of a discussion/dinner to be sponsored by the OCT.
2. Background: High rates of population increase and rural,
urban migration are producing rapid growth of large cities in many
of the world's less developed countries. Urban populations are
expanding at a pace which far outstrips the absorptive capacities
of most Third World cities. Urban areas are beset by enormous
demands for jobs, food, housing, transportation, clean water,
public sanitation, and social services. Poverty is widespread
in cities, yet the flow of migrants from countryside to city
continues, reflecting the even greater poverty of the rural
areas and the magnetic appeal of urban life. -y the year 2000,
over.2 billion people will lie in cities of developing countries
3. Uncontrolled city growth and its accompanying problems can
threaten urban and national political and economic stability.
Recent rioting and violence in Teheran, Monrovia, and Istanbul
indicate the volatility of some urban populations. At the same
time, conditions in other cities have deteriorated far beyond the
point at which Western observers would have expected an explosive
reaction, yet the cities remain outwardly calm. While dispersed rural
poverty may be safely ignored by government officials, the intense
spatial concentration- of urban poverty is often viewed with
alarm. A large mass of youthful, unemployed, hungry, illiterate
migrants in fetid squatter settlements at the outskirts of a
nation's capital is likely to be perceived;. correctly or not as
a potential threat to local and national stability. Of even
greater danger in some cities are educated youths seeking jobs,
or members of the middle class, whose rising expectations are
thwarted by stagnating economic conditions. Responses to urban
problems vary according to national resources, political and
social structure, development goals, and magnitude of the perceived
threat. Meeting the needs of urban populations, often via imports
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strains national budgets, reduces scarce foreign exchange, and
requires the diversion of investment from other sectors of the
national development plan. Policies to redistribute population
may require huge capital investments and coercive means of
enactment.
4. Research Needs: We do not have adequate capability to
forecast or evaluate the impact of urban problems on the national
economies, social structure, and political stability of less
developed countries. We need to address the following issues:
a. What kinds of problems can be identified with various
elements of an urban population? What are the specific
concerns of the poor, the middle class, labor, students,
and the ethnic minorities?
b. What economic, social, or political conditions will
move residents to seek redress? How do the motivating
factors differ among population subgroups or geographic
regions?
c. How is urban discontent manifested? What conditions
are likely to prompt violence? What are the warning signs of
impending crises? Toward who, or what, is discontent directed?
How disruptive is it?
d. Which elements of the populations take the lead in
urban protests? How do they establish and widen their bases
of support? What kinds of organizations in urban society
provide frameworks for mass protests or uprisings? What
is the relationship between rapid urbanization and political
participation?
e. Does the provision of goods and services to placate
urban residents threaten national economic stability? Do
cities sap national resources to the detriment of overall
development?
f. How do national and city leaders respond to urban
problems? Which problems, if left unsolved, do they view
as potentially damaging to their regimes? How effective
are the responses?
g. Which countries are faced with impending urban crises?
What actions are likely to be taken, and what will be their
outcomes?
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