FOREIGN-CRISES PANEL SET UP BY CIA CHIEF

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP86B00985R000200280003-8
• Release Decision: RIFPUB
• Original Classification: K
• Document Page Count: 2
• Document Creation Date: December 16, 2016
• Document Release Date: December 8, 2004
• Sequence Number: 3
• Publication Date: December 12, 1978
• Content Type: NSPR

dj N.L L{;1: .ei ' B,'~LT IHE SUR
i4 ~-- 12 DECEMBER 1978
Approved For Release 2005/01/10 : CIA-RDP86B00985R00Q200280003-8
i-,, orie%ian
washi+s7G4naureaii6jTneswo = " an attempt to improve the gathering ten, ut the top o icia sat its man-1 C
'ashington-Aden StansfieId Turner, an aria yzing o in ormatton on Do L ical will purvey continuous y the co e:-
thedirector of central intelligence, has es- cris-- oad, Admiral Turner has named Lion an an sis~t3 m e ence
tablished a top-level-panel to helpim d. - zenera and a : .'and run up warning si a13 wnerne
prove the assessment o ores t-crises,
r, t?rofessor to what is n vin far onTy a, 51V& area is et,
. ton little attlen-
which- President Carter fouaddet~c~nt la v -. a~
.?"the review panel" , - ? .. ~ ~onan presumably '6 y wou ld have'becrt
the Iranian and other recent cases; _ a t tees are Ambassador Wil ,
ppo flagged early on, had the panel been in op-
Di sc axing this development yesterday, 1aiTi.Leonhart, who has had'a 30-year car- eracian as Admiral Turner.intends for it to
a top intelligence official said "prt dieting '''r fee the Foreign Service.througbout the a ; be in t'ie fu ure:.:
-.7777777.
political upheavals (like that in Irani is the -world and. most recently' had served as : .. `'I'be o intelligence official indicated
hardest part of intelligence worlL'>;- ,= de uLy commandant for international of-. "' he believes the review panel can remaiat
The Central Izttelligence.Ageiicyhas 4,_, fairs. at. the National--War College; Gan.' . independent .and.`avoid becoming-.
im-
.
.
been portrayed-wrongly, the official im=." . Bzuce Palmer, who .was: the * Army vice.:'; mersed in the system. it is to monitor. -
plied-as envisioaiog.- ne.,w?trisome ; i" clilef: of staff from 1968 to 1973 and has j The thre -man operation is na a. dizg t
threats: to: the "shah of. Iran at about thesei red lately as a defense analyst at the. result 677, 77 rf 1' nce over pol-
time rioting broke out in September;
' .
,
American Enterprise Institute,. a caner` i ice in a tierce in a anian crisis;-but
.,
y
:
The official conceded yesterday; how untrue.: think-tank here, and. Klaus ? E: it'ta" M Ces on gzea er ,ir dance because of
'ever, that.intelligence agencies:,''did -not :" Knorr. a Princeton University economics. presidential concern. In a memorandum
appreciate the extent of what the religious _;, .professor as.well as director of the univer-.' to Admiral Turner, Cyrus R::: Vance; the
cry could bring': in Iran; although, he said site's Center for International Studies, and Secretary of State, and_Zbigaiew Brzezia-
it was known from January onward that . a_.proltfic writer on politico-military. is-a .ski, the., President's assistant for national
unrestwas spreading. .'~ sues. security, the President said he was dis-?-
The'unrest traced to reacton o 'ultra ' .~ bir. Leonhart has been at the CIA since satisfied with the "'quality" of foreign po-
conservative. Shia Mtulima- to. Shah; Mo~ July, General.Palmer arrived last month, litical i?iteliigence provided him:..:,
ba wnad Reza '? Pahlavi's ` liberalizing and' Mr. Knorr will join the group in Janu- When the fact of the President's dissat-.
moves, and-then spread-to leftists. wititen-..._ary isfaction was unearthed, it was quickly re-
:t.. .`%i.. .,., o, ...'?+J~--? ., > ported that Sena teIntelligence Camr1utte
sources had a CIA report indicating, on
the eve of rioting, that the shah did-not
face- major- threats:' One report said th&-
CIK draft did-not see Iran ?as- being in a -
revolutionary "or even prerevolutionary"'.
w}to'disctis?ed'thi yes..
clearly his position. is-not meant to be in
_He said. the, document-in: the bands of r
was by`nomeans a finished'','nationa1 ifi
telligence?:estimato because-lb .,di mi~t
q
He- said the ceiitral:Intelligence direc.ti
for had in fact twice returned- the report
simply Drilled it when it was overtaken by:
=From that ezgfaiatiot ; pi ppear.
.
rear were was noo uw-cia climate-
~y_a'ira'SY'e"a tFe Presi~ent'.at the time theme
riots stn
Approved For Release 2005/01/10 : CIA-RDP86B00985R000200280003-8
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Outside Panel Picked to Review . CIa . Esti mates
ueueaAreeslatern.dae,r tl -One draft of an,estimate,~the official said, con
tamed the assessment- the; shah was.-likely to_ride
?-_.In
an effort to improve analyses and forecasts, . out the mounting criticisms withoutmajor.threat
CIA Director Stansfield Turner has. recruited an to-his power. This, conclusion turned out to-.be
independent three-man review panel,--With broad,.. Wrong.
authority to, criticizeU.S. intelligence estimates. " =z
A senior intelligence.official said the panel will e.The draft estimate was leaked to the media and
have the.. authority elute tai criticize any, estimate it seems to have prompted. ,some of. Carter's crid-
e- s Actually, the official said, a,disforted view of
chooses and as severely.as:it thinks appropriate. cism.
Disclosure of theipove. comes at a time when t the. secret report was published. said the esti-
President Carter,.has.made clear, both privately mate was severely criticized ilhied the CIA and
,'.and publicly. that he fs.dissatisfied.,with the quality, was never approved or forwarded to the White
of intelligence reaching,him..;' House: When events -outpaced. the 'Analysis the
s ncrim ofaA wee fn~m a11v 1rillaA
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