CHINA: INTERNATIONAL TRADE QUARTERLY REVIEW

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CIA-RDP86B00985R000300040005-1
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February 1, 2001
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September 1, 1979
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Natir A delease 2001/03/06 : CIA-RDP86B00985R000300040005-1 Assessment Center China: International Trade Quarterly Review First Quarter, 1979 ER CIT 79-001 September 1979 Approved For Release 2001/03/06 : CIA-RDP86B00985R000300040005-1 Approved For Release 2001/03/06 : CIA-RDP86B00985RM300040005-1 This publication is prepared for the use of US Government officials, and the format, coverage, and content are designed to meet their specific requirements. US Government officials may obtain additional copies of this document directly or through liaison channels from the Central Intelligence Agency. Requesters outside the US Government may obtain subscriptions to CIA publications similar to this one by addressing inquiries to: Document Expediting (DOCEX) Project Exchange and Gift Division Library of Congress Washington, D.C. 20540 or: National Technical Information Service 5285 Port Royal Road Springfield, VA 22161 Requesters outside the US Government not interested in subscription service may purchase specific publications either in paper copy or microform from: Photoduplication Service Library of Congress Washington, D.C. 20540 or: National Technical Information Service 5285 Port Royal Road Springfield, VA 22161 (To expedite service call the NTIS Order Desk (703) 557-4650) Approved For Release 2001/03/06 : CIA-RDP86BOO985ROO0300040005-1 N-le telease 2001/03/06 : CIA-RDP86B00985R000300040005-1 Assessment Center China: International Trade Quarterly Review First Quarter, 1979 Information available as of 7 September 1979 has been used in the preparation of this report. Comments and queries on this unclassified report are welcomed and may be directed to: Director for Public Affairs Central Intelligence Agency Washington, D.C. 20505 (703) 351-7676. For information on obtaining additional copies, see the inside of front cover. Approved For Release 2001/03/06 : CIA-RDP86B00985R000300040005-1 I-fl Approved FoRelease 2001/03/06 : CIA-RDP86B00985R000300040005-1 This is the first in a series of quarterly reports on China's foreign trade that will replace the annual publication, China: International Trade. It is intended to provide a more up-to-date assessment of the rapidly changing situation in China's foreign economic rela- tions. This issue contains a short text discussing events of current interest, tables highlighting trends in trade through the first quarter of 1979, and an appendix outlining the method used to estimate trade on a quarterly basis. Future issues will update the basic export and import tables and over the course of a year will include all the commodity and balance-of- payments data previously presented in the annual publication. The data in this report differ from those presented in past reports in two important respects. First, because the data are computerized the series will be automati- cally updated as new information becomes available. The most recent quarterly estimate is made with about 75 percent of trade having been actually reported and thus can be expected to be adjusted somewhat in later issues. Earlier quarters with much more complete information are of course expected to change only marginally. A second difference is that the data are presented on a merchandise trade basis, with both exports and im- ports valued free-on-board (f.o.b.) at the port of origin. Only an aggregate estimate of the cost-insurance- freight (c.i.f.) value of imports will be presented henceforth. In July, China released aggregate export and import statistics for the first time in two decades. As the estimates presented here are based entirely on trading partner statistics, the close agreement. between the official figures and our estimates provides a valuable check on the validity of the methods we used. Approved For Release 2001/03/06 : CIA-RDP86B00985R000300040005-1 Approved For Release 2001/03/06 : CIA-RDP86B00985R000300040005-1 Communist Countries Communist Countries Less Developed Countries 1970 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 Approved For Release 2001/03/06 : CIA-RDP86B00985R000300040005-1 Approved Folelease 2001/03/06 : CIA-RDP86B00985R000300040005-1 China: International Trade Quarterly Review First Quarter 1979 China's post-Mao economic revitalization efforts are clearly demonstrated by the country's trade expansion in 1978. Our estimates indicate that exports (f.o.b.) increased by 24 percent over 1977 to $10.0 billion while imports (f.o.b.) surged by 56 percent to $10.3 billion. Part of these dollar value increases, perhaps as much as 10 percentage points, is due to the depreci- ation of the US dollar in 1978. Nevertheless the increases in real terms are quite substantial and are illustrative of Beijing's new outward looking economic policy. The surge in imports, particularly late in the year, swung China's trade balance from a $1.5 billion surplus in 1977 to a $255 million deficit last year. The 1977 surplus and a somewhat larger one in 1976 were the result of Beijing's inability to formulate an active development policy. While the surpluses allowed a buildup in foreign exchange reserves, they represent a considerable lost opportunity to import badly needed capital equipment. In a major policy change, the Hua- Deng administration rejected past emphasis on bal- anced trade and allowed a sharp increase in imports. The rapid shift from a $310 million surplus in the first quarter of 1978 to a $520 million deficit in the fourth quarter, nevertheless, gave rise to concerns among the Chinese leadership. In addition to having to cover the fourth-quarter deficit, the Chinese had obligated themselves to approximately $600 million in down- payments for plants ordered in the second half of 1978. The trade balance moreover was moving even deeper into the red in the first months of 1979. Exports were off 7 percent in the first quarter to $2,820 million while imports declined only marginally to $3,480 million leaving a record $660 million deficit. Reacting to the rapid foreign exchange drawdown, as well as to a general rethinking of China's development policies, the Ministry of Finance in February 1979 suspended contracts signed with Japan in late 1978 and ordered a moratorium on major new contract signings. Subsequently, a push to complete arrange- ments for lines of credit-both tied and untied-was successful in netting general long-term commitments of more than $20 billion at very reasonable rates. Short-term borrowing increased sharply to cover imports until the more economical long-term supplier credits can be utilized. With China's foreign exchange position back on a more solid footing, all but one of the suspended contracts have been reinstated and the moratorium on new signings has been lifted. The Chinese leadership, in the June meetings of the National People's Congress (NPC), strongly reaf- firmed the decisions taken over the past two years to liberalize and expand China's trade. A somewhat more cautious attitude toward imports is evident, however, and capital equipment purchases probably will not resume the frenzied 1978 pace. Even the moderated development program will require large imports of capital and intermediate goods. New emphasis on exports and unprecedented willingness to accept direct foreign investment should prevent the financing bur- den from reaching unacceptable levels. Breaking precedent with the past, the Chinese have recently released first-half aggregate export and im- port statistics and have publicly announced the trade goals for 1979. First-half statistics-exports of 9,500 million yuan, imports of 11,800 million yuan'- suggest that the second-quarter deficit was cut ap- proximately in half from the first quarter. Exports appear to have surpassed record fourth-quarter 1978 levels and imports appear to have declined slightly. ' Chinese foreign trade statistics are presumed to be on an exports f.o.b., imports c.i.f. basis. These first-half statistics are very close to our estimates, differing by only 0.2 percent on exports and 0.1 percent on imports. For further discussion of Chinese statistics see the appendix. Approved For Release 2001/03/06 : CIA-RDP86B00985R000300040005-1 Approved For Release 2001/03/06 : CIA-RDP86B00985Re00300040005-1 Figure 3 The 1979 trade targets, presented at the NPC June meetings, include exports of 19,200 million yuan, 15 China: Trade Balance' percent above 1978, while imports are slated to increase by 32 percent to reach 24,800 million yuan. In Billion US $ dollar terms, based on the exchange rate at the time of With Non-Communist Countries the NPC, exports would increase 20 percent to reach '1.2 $12,000 million while imports would jump 40 percent to reach $15,500 million ($14,350 million on an f.o.b. basis).' Most of the increase slated for this year has 1.0 already occurred, however, and third- and fourth- quarter exports and imports apparently are targeted to be only slightly ahead of recent quarters. Lower grain 0.8 and steel purchases will probably hold imports back in the second half. The Chinese seem somewhat cautious on their export projections, however. Higher oil prices 0.6 and record sales at the Spring Guangzhou Trade Fair should enable exports to exceed their goals. The trade deficit will nevertheless be close to $1 billion on an 0.4 f.o.b. basis in the second half. ' The roundness of the dollar values as opposed to the yuan values would seem to indicate that the goals are originally expressed in dollars and converted to yuan for the Chinese audience. I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I, I I I I I I l l I l -0.2 1_1.1 1 tAllLIJ 1970 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 Approved For Release 2001/03/06 : CIA-RDP86B00985R000300040005-1 Approved For Release 2001/03/06 : CIA-RDP86B00985R000300040005-1 1979 WORLD .................... 1,906.4 1,854.6 1,931.4 2,397.4 2,171.3 2,274.4 2,527.3 3,026.1 2,819.7 7,283.5 8,089.8 9,99 NON-COMMUNIST COUNTRIES.. 1,594.8 1,561.3 1,639.0 1,930.3 1,788.7 1,950.9 2,136.6 2.554.4 2,455.0 6,047.9 6,725.2 8,430.5 DEVELOPED COUNTRIES ...... 699.2 683.0 698.1 859.0 828.9 912.1 921.1 1,115.1 1.163.1 2,697.4 2,939.3 3,777.1 EAST ASIA AND PACIFIC.. 376.8 375.0 374.3 505.0 451.5 494.5 522.9 639.4 598.7 1,421.7 1,631.1 2,108.3 Australia ........... 33.6 30.0 28.9 31.7 35.5 32.0 31.5 41.7 50.1 100.2 124.2 140.7 Japan ............... 338.3 340.6 340.8 466.1 411.6 457.9 486.8 591.2 543.4 1,307.3 1,485.7 1,947.5 NORTH AMERICA .......... 70.4 72.6 77.3 60.1 94.5 112.3 102.1 97.6 136.0 291.5 280.4 406.5 Canada .............. 19.5 23.5 20.5 13.8 15.7 26.1 21.1 19.9 34.7 89.6 77.3 82.8 United States ....... 50.8 49.2 56.8 46.3 78.7 86.2 81.0 77.7 101.3 201.8 203.1 323.6 WESTERN EUROPE ......... 252.1 235.4 246.5 293.8 282.9 305.3 296.1 378.1 428.4 984.2 1,027.8 1,262.4 Belgium ............. 8.3 9.0 7.7 10.2 10.2 9.7 8.7 10.6 12.4 45.6 35.1 39.1 France .............. 42.1 40.0 39.7 46.9 39.9 55.9 44.3 . 56.2 60.6 169.1 168.6 196.3 West Germany ........ 57-.4 54.8 64.3 73.9 71.5 79.9 77.7 89.7 92.4 236.5 250.4 318.7 Italy ............... 374.5 27.8 31.4 44.9 33.2 35.4 35.9 69.6 58.4 134.9 141.6 174.1 Netherlands ......... 18.3 21.0 21.3 21.7 27.2 25.2 28.7 28.0 26.9 77.7 82.3 109.1 Norway .............. 2.2 2.2 2.3 2.9 2.6 2.8 2.1 3.4 3.5 7.2 9.6 11.0 Spain ............... 9.1 7.5 8.4 11.2 12.8 15.1 12.0 19.5 27.2 41.5 36.2 59.4 Sweden .............. 13.5 13.5 11.6 12.2 11.7 9.9 12.1 15.1 15.7 44.0 50.7 48.8 Switzerland ......... 9.4 7.9 8.2 8.5 10.8 10.3 11.0 11.4 11.0 31.5 34.0 43.5 United kingdom...... 38.1 37.1 37.0 47.1 43.7 41.7 45.4 55.0 92.4 135.6 159.4 185.7 LESS DEVELOPED COUNTRIES. 895.6 878.2 940.8 1,071.3 959.8 1,038.8 1,215.5 1,439.3 1,291.9 3,350.5 3,785.9 4,653.5 SOUTHEAST ASIA ......... 565.7 584.9 644.7 722.3 657.1 723.7 841.3 988.5 873.3 2,287.5 2,517.7 3,210.6 Hong Kong ........... 393.7 397.5 433.2 511.0 463.3 526.8 580.3 678.9 597.0 1,593.3 1,735.4 2,249.4 Indonesia ........... 18.4 42.1 41.7 44.0 22.9 24.6 27.2 32.2 *30.2 125.5 146.2 106.9 Malaysia ............ 29.8 29.2 39.6 35.3 38.7 46.1 60.2 65.6 49.2 128.0 133.8 210.6 Philippines ......... 11.3 19.5 21.2 27.0 22.5 25.4 28.7 *37.4 35.0 53.9 79.1 113.9 Singapore ........... 67.4 58.4 69.4 66.5 75.6 66.4 90.8 93.0 85.5 254.0 261.8 325.8 Thailand ............ 22.5 15.9 16.1 9.4 10.0 10.5 27.7 31.7 'X29.7 68.3 64.0 79.9 SOUTH ASIA ............. 31.1 22.2 23.0 31.2 25.7 25.6 38.0 52.0 46.2 77.2 107.6 141.3 Pakistan ............ 17.7 10.0 9.6 14.4 *15.8 16.5 18.3 22.0 20.6 61.0 51.7 72.6 Sri Lanka ........... 6.9 6.8 7.1 8.8 .0 1.3 4.2 11.5 * 8.2 6.3 29.6 17.0 MIDDLE EAST ............ 146.8 146.3 136.8 155.8 124.9 128.5 152.0 175.1 164.1 428.0 585.7 580.4 Bahrain ............. 21.6 14.7 11.7 11.2 4.3 4.6 5.1 6.0 * 5.7 36.6 59.2 20.0 Iran ................ 28.8 13.1 13.7 17.0 *15.8 16.6 18.5 22.1 20.8 89.0 72.6 73.0 Iraq ................ 9.8 12.3 11.6 *14.4 13.4 14.1 15.6 18.8 17.5 51.0 48.1 61.8 Kuwait .............. 25.2 36.3 29.0 33.2 23.0 21.8 *24.2 29.0 27.2 71.3 123.7 98.1 Syria ............... 8.6 12.2 12.2 10.4 7.9 7.3 19.0 13.2 *12.3 31.1 43.5 47.4 Approved For Release 2001/03/06 : CIA-RDP86B00985R000300040005-1 Approved For Release 2001/03/06 : CIA-RDP86B00985R000300040005-1 TABLE 1 --CONTINUED CHINA: EXPORTS, FOB, BY AREA AND COUNTRY 1/ NORTH AFRICA ........... 39.5 31.5 31.2 42.9 37.5 37.7 42.0 50.0 45.1 132.3 145.2 167.3 Egypt ............... 10.6 10.4 10.8 13.4 12.5 13.1 14.6 17.5 16.4 39.2 45.3 57.7 Libya ............... 17.7 10.3 9.0 10.4 9.7 10.2 11.3 13.6 12.8 59.0 47.4 44.9 SUB-SAHARA AFRICA ...... 101.1 81.7 91.8 103.9 98.4 101.4 120.7 150.4 141.1 381.8 378.4 471.0 Nigeria ............. 39.4 25.4 32.7 36.0 *33.6 35.2 39.1 46.9 44.0 128.0 133.5 154.8 Sudan ............... 9.7 5.2 5.4 6.7 *6.2 6.5 7.2 8.7 8.1 25.3 26.9 28.7 Tanzania............ 4.6 4.2 *4.4 5.4 5.1 5.3 5.9 7.1 6.6 37.8 18.7 23.4 Zambia .............. 1.6 2.5 2.6 1.8 *1.7 1.8 2.0 2.4 2.2 13.2 8.5 7.8 LATIN AMERICA ......... 11.4 11.5 13.2 15.2 16.2 21.9 21.5 23.3 22.2 43.7 51.3 83.0 Argentina........... .2 .1 .2 .3 .4 .4 .6 *.7 .7 .2 .8 2.1 Brazil .............. .2 .1 .1 .1 .0 .1 .1 *.1 .1 .3 .4 .2 Peru ................ *.2 .2 .2 .3 .3 .3 .3 .4 .3 .8 .9 1.2 COMMUNIST COUNTRIES ...... 311.6 293.3 292.5 467.1 382.6 323.5 390.7 471.7 364.7 1,235.6 1,364.6 1,568.6 USSR ................... 38.6 27.5 19.3 92.4 67.8 31.7 64.3 93.5 43.0 178.5 177.8 257.3 EASTERN EUROPE ......... 162.7 158.1 160.7 235.5 197.7 196.3 220.2 251.1 202.6 547.6 717.0 865.5 Czechoslovakia...... 20.9 20.4 21.3 26.4 *24.7 25.8 28.7 34.4 32.2 56.2 89.1 113.6 East Germany ........ 25.8 25.2 26.3 32.6 29.5 31.7 35.1 41.6 *39.0 96.0 110.0 138.0 Hungary ............. 9.8 2.5 6.8 22.0 11.8 16.9 26.0 21.0 7.3 30.6 41.1 75.7 Poland .............. 13.3 12.0 4.6 24.5 18.0 18.6 23.1 31.6 13.2 39.5 54.4 91.3 Romania ............. 64.1 62.7 65.4 81.0 64.6 69.4 76.9 91.1 *85.4 201.9 273.2 302.0 Yugoslavia .......... 3.3 10.6 10.3 17.0 17.8 17.2 23.1 22.6 17.2 17.5 41.3 80.7 WORLD .................... 97.95 97.81 96.86 96.19 86.07 85.81 82.78 80.81 DEVELOPED COUNTRIES ...... 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 LESS DEVELOPED COUNTRIES. 95.63 95.38 93.56 91.48 77.35 77.50 74.61 70.21 COMMUNIST COUNTRIES ...... 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 77.79 72.52 67.60 67.83 70.09 98.39 97.14 83.59 99.88 100.00 100.00 100.00 56.82 96.50 93.89 74.46 22.13 100.00 100.00 71.17 i/ Country listings for any given area are not exhaustive: only major trade partners are presented. Country data for all quarters to the right of an asterisk are extrapolated and are subject to change. See appendix. 2/ Cambodia, Cuba, Mongolian Republic, Laos, North Korea, and Vietnam. 3/ Includes quarterly data that have been interpolated from annual trade partner data. approved For Release 2001/03/06 : CIA-RDP86B00985R000300040005-1 Approved For Release 2001/03/06 : CIA-RDP86B00985R000300040005-1 1979 WORLD .................... 1,222.4 1,388.6 1,899.2 2,052.2 1,861.7 2,322.9 2,525.6 3,545.4 3,481.6 5,579.6 6,562.5 10,25( , NON-COMMUNIST COUNTRIES.. 1,015.1 1,186.8 1,609.9 1,683.7 1,567.5 2,015.0 2,172.8 2,948.2 3,001.0 4,501.8 5,495.6 8,703.4 DEVELOPED COUNTRIES ...... 765.5 810.6 1,230.1 1,359.7 1,331.1 1,677.7 1,818.7 2,440.5 2,453.8 3,768.3 4,166.0 7,268.1 EAST ASIA AND PACIFIC.. 471.5 434.9 792.7 754.3 657.8 902.7 895.6 1,165.7 1,155.3 1,954.6 2,453.5 3,621.9 Australia ........... 38.6 53.0 175.8 193.6 151.0 134.0 106.7 91.1 130.8 264.3 461.0 482.9 Japan ............... 419.8 377.1 606.1 551.9 497.6 754.2 773.4 1,048.7 1,000.7 1,665.8 1,954.9 3,073.9 NORTH AMERICA .......... 91.9 140.5 115.7 169.7 175.9 243.6 380.3 506.9 523.3 334.7 517.8 1,306.7 Canada .............. 72.8 97.4 88.4 87.9 78.4 124.5 138.4 100.8 128.0 199.7 346.5 442.1 United States ....... 19.1 43.1 27.3 81.8 97.5 119.1 241.9 406.1 395.3 135.0 171.3 864.6 WESTERN EUROPE ......... 202.1 235.2 321.7 435.7 497.4 531.4 542.8 767.9 775.2 1,479.0 1,194.7 2,339.5 Belgium ............. 3.8 9.2 18.9 16.1 38.8 45.9 44.7 76.0 53.9 40.0 48.0 205.4 France .............. 33.3 14.2 20.8 27.0 30.9 47.0 49.5 71.8 97.7 354.6 95.3 199.2 West Germany ........ 96.0 114.0 125.0 165.7 250.7 227.3 223.6 293.6 322.0 622.0 500.7 995.2 Italy ............... 12.1 8.2 32.8 35.8 38.8 42.5 40.9 66.2 65.2 126.9 88.9 188.4 Netherlands ......... 5.9 3.9 21.8 20.9 19.8 18.9 25.5 70.8 59.2 38.9 52.5 135.0 Norway .............. .2 20.2 20.4 55.5 24.3 11.8 16.0 7.7 13.0 18.4 96.3 59.7 Spain ............... 3.4 3.2 6.1 8.5 11.0 16.6 13.3 25.4 34.1 17.4 21.3 66.3 Sweden .............. 4.8 7.6 18.1 14.8 9.5 14.1 23.4 37.4 24.8 30.8 45.3 84.4 Switzerland ......... 14.5 10.8 12.8 18.8 24.3 19.1 22.8 28.4 24.8 51.9 56.9 94.6 United kingdom...... 20.3 29.6 28.5 30.5 30.7 44.8 42.7 57.4 55.8 125.6 108.9 175.,X LESS DEVELOPED COUNTRIES. 249.6 376.2 379.7 324.0 236.4 337.3 354.1 507.7 547.2 733.5 1,329.6 1,435.3 SOUTHEAST ASIA ......... 105.7 120.9 120.7 94.5 58.0 102.0 73.1 146.0 188.9 219.8 441.7 379.2 Hong Kong ........... 8.4 11.4 10.1 14.4 12.3 16.4 14.3 20.0 44.2 30.1 44.4 62.9 Indonesia ........... .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 `.0 .0 .0 .0 Malaysia ............ 20.1 28.7 41.4 29.6 18.5 13.4 25.9 52.5 61.0 44.8 119.9 110.3 Philippines ......... 42.7 30.9 13.1 22.4 6.1 28.6 9.1 *4.9 4.8 38.3 109.1 48.7 Singapore ........... 7.2 10.5 28.8 12.9 9.3 12.4 14.2 22.0 33.1 38.7 59.4 57.9 Thailand ............ 27.2 38.4 27.1 9.3 9.3 29.3 7.5 24.6 *24.2 61.4 102.0 70.7 SOUTH ASIA ............. 13.5 16.1 21.5 31.7 14.9 22.3 28.2 30.1 33.9 82.2 82.8 95.5 Pakistan ............ 1.3 3.1 1.9 11.0 *8.6 10.6 11.6 16.3 16.0 * 17.0 17.3 47.2 Sri Lanka........... 8.7 10.1 13.7 14.8 .0 8.6 13.2 9.1 13.3 56.9 47.4 31.0 MIDDLE EAST ............ 43.7 50.3 45.2 66.0 52.1 53.3 51.4 68.6 67.5 160.0 205.2 225.2 Bahrain ............. .0 9.3 4.0 2.0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 18.3 15.3 .0 Iran ................ 7.9 8.3 11.4 12.3 *11.3 13.9 15.3 21.3 20.9 22.8 39.9 61.8 Iraq.. ......... .... 3.7 4.2 5.8 *6.3 5.8 7.1 7.8 10.9 10.7 50.0 20.0 31.5 Kuwait .............. 4.6 5.7 4.6 25.0 2.6 10.1 *11.1 15.4 15.2 9.8 39.9 39.2 Syria ............... 20.1 13.9 11.6 9.7 19.5 10.1 1.1 2.5 *2.4 37.3 55.2 33.2 Approved For Release 2001/03/06 : CIA-RDP86B00985R000300040005-1 Approved For Release 2001/03/06 : CIA-RDP86B00985R000300040005-1 TABLE 2 --CONTINUED CHINA: IMPORTS, FOB, BY AREA AND COUNTRY 1/ I II III IV I II III IV I 1976 1977 1978 NORTH AFRICA ........... 14.7 17.0 24.3 17.7 15.8 19.4 22.7 31.1 29.2 56.2 73.7 89.1 Egypt ............... 6.3 7.2 9.9 10.7 *9.8 12.1 13.3 18.5 18.2 51.4 34.1 53.8 Libya ............... *.2 .3 .3 .4 .3 .4 .5 .6 .6 1.0 1.2 1.9 SUB-SAHARA AFRICA...... 36.8 40.6 54.1 46.3 42.0 52.6 55.3 82.6 81.1 110.1 177.8 232.4 Nigeria ............. .0 2.3 9.4 .0 *.O .0 .0 .0 .0 1.0 11.7 .0 Sudan ............... 14.9 10.8 14.7 15.9 *14.6 18.0 19.7 27.6 27.1 24.2 56.3 80.0 Tanzania ............ 4.0 4.4 *6.0 6.5 6.0 7.4 8.1 11.2 11.0 13.7 20.9 32.6 Zambia .............. 5.3 10.3 7.2 6.1 *5.7 7.0 7.6 10.6 10.5 27.0 29.0 30.9 LATIN AMERICA ......... 35.2 131.3 114.0 67.8 53.5 87.7 123.4 149.3 146.6 105.2 348.4 413.9 Argentina ........... 15.1 35.7 28.7 7.5 1.1 16.8 28.6 *40.0 39.3 2.7 87.1 86.4 Brazil .............. .0 78.9 61.8 21.8 24.0 35.9 35.1 *49.0 48.1 9.0 162.7 144.0 Peru ................ 9.7 4.9 7.1 *21.0 19.4 23.9 26.1 36.5 35.9 41.9 42.7 105.9 COMMUNIST COUNTRIES...... 207.3 201.8 289.3 368.5 294.2 307.9 352.8 597.2 480.7 1,077.8 1.066.8 1,552.2 USSR ................... 38.1 21.2 23.2 79.3 42.2 31.0 51.0 118.0 69.6 238.4 161.8 242.2 EASTERN EUROPE ......... 121.8 126.3 191.8 209.1 173.4 180.0 195.5 330.7 265.2 Czechoslovakia...... 13.6 15.6 21.3 23.0 *21.2 26.1 28.5 39.9 39.2 East Germany ........ 21.2 24.4 33.4 36.0 33.1 40.9 45.0 62.9 *61.8 Hungary ............. 4.3 2.2 8.5 17.0 4.9 10.0 12.6 30.0 3.9 Poland .............. 22.0 13.7 14.4 10.6 16.9 7.3 14.2 54.9 31.9 Romania ............. 44.2 50.8 69.4 74.8 57.0 70.4 77.4 108.2 *106.3 Yugoslavia.......... 1.7 2.4 21.4 22.5 6.5 4.4 5.7 18.1 5.7 OTHER 2/ ............... 47.3 54.3 74.3 80.0 78.6 97.0 106.3 148.5 145.9 PERCENT OF ESTIMATE OBTAINED FROM TRADE PARTNER DATA: 3/ WORLD .................... 98.90 98.90 98.46 98.13 89.16 89.18 88.49 85.73 DEVELOPED COUNTRIES ...... 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 10000 LESS DEVELOPED COUNTRIES. 94.61 95.93 92.32 88.15 51.80 57.62 51.39 32..98 COMMUNIST COUNTRIES...... 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 70.11 64.81 66.37 72.26 608.4 649.1 879.6 69.9 73.4 115.6 104.0 115.0 182.0 39.6 32.0 57.5 63.2 60.7 93.3 248.8 239.2 313.0 11.4 48.0 34.7 77.83 99.31 98.53 87.81 99.99 100.00 100.00 100.00 26.54 94.73 92.75 46.42 23.11 100.00 100.00 69.03 1/ Country listings for any given area are not exhaustive: only major trade partners are presented. Country data for all quarters to the right of an asterisk are extrapolated and are subject to change. See appendix. 2/ Cambodia, Cuba, Mongolian Republic, Laos, North Korea, and Vietnam. 3/ Includes quarterly data that have been interpolated from annual trade partner data. Approved For Release 2001/03/06 : CIA-RDP86B00985R000300040005-1 Approved For Release 2001/03/06 : CIA-RDP86B00985R000300040005-1 WORLD .................... 684.0 466-0 32.2 345.2 309.6 -48-5 1.7 -519.3 -661.9 1,703.8 1,527.3 -25( NON-COMMUNIST COUNTRIES.- 579.7 374.5 29.1 246.5 221.1 -64.1 -36.2 -393.8 -545.9 1,546.1 1,229.6 -272.9 DEVELOPED COUNTRIES ...... -66.3 -127.6 -532.0 -500.8 -502.3 -765.7 -897.7 -1325-4 -1,290.7 -1,070.9 -1,226.7 -3,491-0 EAST ASIA AND PACIFIC.. -94-7 -59.9 -418.5 -249.3 -206-3 -408.2 -372.7 -526.3 -556.5 -532.9 -822.4 -1,513.6 Australia........... -5.0 -23.0 -147.0 -161.9 -115.6 -102.1 -75.2 -49.4 -80.7 -164.1 -336.8 -342.3 Japan ............... -81.5 -36.5 -265.3 -85.8 -86-0 -296.3 -286-6 -457.5 -457.3 -358.5 -469.2 -1,126.4 NORTH AMERICA .......... -21.5 -67.9 -38.4 -109.6 -81.4 -131-3 -278.2 -409.3 -387-3 -43.2 -237.4 -900.2 Canada .............. -53.3 -73-9 -67.9 -74.1 -62.7 -98-4 -117.3 -80.9 -93.3 -110.1 -269.2 -359-3 United States..-..-. 31.7 6.1 29.5 -35.5 -18.8 -32.9 -160.9 -328.4 -294.0 66.8 31.8 -541.0 WESTERN EUROPE ......... 50.0 .2 -75.1 -141.9 -214-5 -226.1 -246.7 -389.8 -346.9 -494.8 -166.9 -1,077.2 Belgium ............. 4.5 -.2 -11.2 -5.9 -28.6 -36.2 -36.0 -65.4 -41.5 5.6 -12.9 -166.3 France .............. 8.8 25.8 18.9 19.9 9.0 8.9 -5.2 -15-6 -37.1 -185-5 73-3 -2-9 West Germany ........ -38.6 -59-2 -60.7 -91.8 -179.2 -147-4 -145.9 -203.9 -229-6 -385.5 -250.3 -676-5 Italy ............... 25.4 19.6 -1.4 9.1 -5.6 -7.1 -5.0 3.4 -6.8 8.0 52.7 -14.3 Netherlands ......... 12.4 17.1 -.5 .8 7.4 6.3 3.2 -42-8 -32.3 38.8 29.8 -25.9 Norway .............. 2.0 -18.0 -18.0 -52.7 -21-7 -9.0 -13.8 -4.2 -9.5 -11.2 -86-7 -48.7 Spain ............... 5-7 4.2 2.3 2.7 1.8 -1.5 -1.3 -5.9 -6.9 24.1 14.9 -6.9 Sweden .............. 8.7 5.9 -6.5 -2.6 2.2 -4.2 -11.3 -22.3 -9.1 13.2 5.4 -35.6 Switzerland ......... -5.1 -2.9 -4-6 -10.3 -13.5 -8.8 -11.8 -17.0 -13.8 -20-4 -22.9 -51.1 United kingdom ...... 17.8 7.5 8.5 16.6 13.0 -3.1 2.7 -2.4 36.6 10.0 50.5 10.1 LESS DEVELOPED COUNTRIES. 646.0 502.0 561.1 747.3 723.4 701-6 861.5 931-6 744.7 2,617.0 2,456.3 3,218.1 SOUTHEAST ASIA ......... 460.0 464.1 524.1 627.8 599.1 621-6 768.2 842-5 684.4 2,067.7 2,075.9 2,831.4 Hong Kong ........... 385.3 386.1 423.1 496.6 451.1 510.5 566.0 658.9 552-8 1,563.2 1,691.0 2,186.5 Indonesia ........... 18-4 42.1 41.7 44.0 22.9 24.6 27.2 32.2 *30.2 125-5 146.2 106.9 Malaysia ............ 9.7 .4 -1.8 5.6 20.2 32.6 34.3 13.1 -11-8 83-2 13.9 100.2 Philippines ......... -31-4 -11.4 8.1 4-6 16.4 -3.2 19-6 *32.5 30.2 15.6 -30.0 65.2 Singapore ........... 60.2 47.9 40.7 53.7 66.3 54.0 76.6 71.0 52.4 215.3 202.4 267.9 Thailand............ -4.7 -22.5 -11.0 .1 .7 -18.8 20.2 7.1 *5.5 6.9 -38.1 9.2 SOUTH ASIA ............. 17.6 6.1 1.6 -.5 10.8 3.3 9.8 21.9 12.3 -5.0 24-9 45.8 Pakistan ............ 16-4 7.0 7.7 3.4 *7.1 5.9 6.7 5.7 4.6 * 44.0 34.4 25.4 Sri Lanka ........... -1.8 -3.3 -6.7 -6.1 .0 -7.2 -9.1 2.3 -5.2 -50.6 -17.8 -14-0 MIDDLE EAST ............ 103.1 96.0 91.6 89.8 72.9 75-2 100.6 106.4 96.6 268.0 380.5 355.1 Bahrain ............. 21.5 5.4 7.7 9.2 4.3 4.6 5-1 6.0 5.7 18.3 43.8 20.0 Iran ................ 20.9 4.8 2.3 4.7 *4.5 2.7 3.2 .8 -.1 66.2 32.7 11.2 Iraq ................ 6.1 8.1 5.8 8.1 7.6 7-0 7.8 7.9 6.8 1.0 28.1 30.3 Kuwait .............. 20.6 30-6 24.4 8.2 20-4 11.7 *13.1 13.6 12.0 61.5 83.8 58-9 Syria ............... -11.4 -1.7 -6 .8 -11.6 -2.8 17.9 10.7 9-9 -6.2 -11-7 14.2 Approved For Release 2001/03/06 : CIA-RDP86B00985R000300040005-1 Approved For Release 2001/03/06 : CIA-RDP86B00985R000300040005-1 TABLE 3 --CONTINUED CHINA: TRADE BALANCES, FOB, BY AREA AND COUNTRY 1/ 1979 NORTH AFRICA ........... Egypt ............... Libya ............... 24.8 14.5 6.9 25.3 4.3 3.1 .9 2.7 *17.5 10.0 8.7 10.0 SUB-SAHARA AFRICA ...... Nigeria ............. Sudan ............... Tanzania ............ Zambia .............. LATIN AMERICA ......... Argentina........... Brazil .............. Peru.. .............. COMMUNIST COUNTRIES ...... USSR ................... EASTERN EUROPE ......... Czechoslovakia ...... East Germany........ Hungary ............. Poland .............. Romania ............. Yugoslavia.......... 21.7 18.3 19.4 18.9 *2.7 1.0 1.3 -1.1 9.4 9.8 10.8 13.0 64.3 41.1 37.7 57.6 56.4 48.9 65.4 67.9 39.4 23.1 23.3 36.0 *33.6 35.2 39.1 46.9 -5.2 -5.6 -9.3 -9.2 *-8.4 -11.5 -12.5 -18.9 .6 -.2 *-1.6 -1.0 -.9 -2.0 -2.1 -4.2 -3.8 -7.8 -4.6 -4.3 *-3.9 -5.2 -5.6 -8.3 -23.8 -119.8 -100.7 -52.6 -15.0 -35.6 -28.4 -7.3 .2 -78.8 -61.8 -21.8 -9.5 -4.6 -6.9 -20.7 -37.3 -65.8 -101.9 -126.0 -.7 -16.4 -28.0 *-39.2 -24.0 -35.8 -35.0 -48.9 -19.1 -23.6 -25.8 -36.1 104.3 91.5 3.1 98.6 .5 6.3 -3.9 13.1 40.8 31.9 -31.1 26.4 7.4 4.8 .0 3.4 4.6 .8 -7.1 -3.4 5.5 .3 -1.7 5.0 -8.7 -1.7 -9.8 13.9 20.0 11.9 -4.0 6.1 1.6 8.1 -11.0 -5.5 88.5 15.6 37.9 -125.5 25.6 .7 13.3 -24.5 24.4 16.3 24.7 -79.6 3.5 -.2 .1 -5.5 -3.6 -9.2 -9.9 -21.3 6.9 6.9 13.4 -9.0 1.1 11.3 8.9 -23.3 7.7 -1.0 -.5 -17.2 11.3 12.8 17.3 4.5 16.0 -1.8 12.2 60.0 44.0 -18.9 -4.4 -8.2 -124.4 -38.6 -48.1 -35.5 -116.0 -26.6 -62.6 -6.9 -22.8 3.4 -18.7 -21.0 11.5 76.1 71.5 78.2 -12.2 11.1 4.0 58.0 46.2 43.0 271.7 200.5 238.6 127.0 121.8 154.1' 1.1 -29.4 -51.3 24.2 -2.2 -9.2 -13.8 -20.5 -23.0 -61.5 -297.0 -330.9 -2.5 -86.3 -84.3 -8.7 -162.2 -143.8 -41.1 -41.8 -104.7 157.7 297.7 16.4 -59.9 16.0 15.1 -60.9 -13.7 -8.0 -9.0 -23.7 -46.9 6.1 67.8 -14.1 15.7 -2.0 -5.0 -44.0 9.1 18.2 -6.3 -2.0 34.0 -11.0 -6.8 46.0 278.5 213.9 15.4 1/ Country listings for any given area are not exhaustive: only major trade partners are presented. Country data for all quarters to the right of an asterisk are extrapolated and are subject to change. See appendix. 2/ Cambodia, Cuba, Mongolian Republic, Laos, North Korea, and Vietnam. Approved For Release 2001/03/06 : CIA-RDP86B00985R000300040005-1 Approved Fot*elease 2001/03/06 : CIA-RDP86B00985R000300040005-1 Appendix A This appendix contains a brief description of the procedures used in this publication to estimate China's quarterly trade and a short analysis of the accuracy of these estimates. It also provides tables, A-1.1 through A-9.4, showing quarterly trade estimates for 1970 through 1978 and statistics on the derivation of those estimates. We will continue, despite this change in methodology, to provide an aggregate estimate of the c.i.f. value of Chinese imports calculated in the same way as before-the recently released Chinese statistics strongly suggest that Chinese trade statistics are kept in this manner. In designing these quarterly reports, our primary objective is to provide the most timely and yet the most complete and accurate data available on the level and direction of China's foreign trade. As a result, the procedures and format differ from those of past reports in two important respects. First, since our data and estimating procedures are now fully computerized, the estimates are based on all available data. As new trade-partner data become available, the estimates are automatically revised. At present, the estimates are based on data reported by 159 countries that trade with China. Statistics on the availability of trade-partner data at the time the estimates are made are presented in each table. Second, in contrast to our earlier procedure of adjust- ing the statistics to place China's imports on a c.i.f. basis and China's exports on a f.o.b. basis, both are now presented on a f.o.b. basis. This change has several advantages. Most notably, the data are more useful for estimating China's balance of payments. Since a large share of China's overseas trade is carried in Chinese ships, trade recorded on a customs basis (exports, f.o.b.; imports, c.i.f.) is not an accurate measurement of China's total foreign exchange earnings or expendi- tures on merchandise trade, freight, and insurance. As previously calculated, the c.i.f. value of imports in- cluded not only foreign exchange expenditures for chartering foreign ships and shipping insurance, but also the internal costs of using Chinese ships to carry imports; the f.o.b. value of exports did not reflect Chinese earnings from shipping and insurance. For a balance-of-payments statement, of course, separate estimates of foreign exchange payments and receipts for freight and insurance still must be made. All of the quarterly trade data presented in this publication is obtained or estimated from trade partner statistics-not from the sporadic Chinese pronounce- ments on trade. The basic source of the non-Commu- nist trade partner data used in this report is the monthly International Monetary Fund, Direction of Trade tape. The I MF data, however, are supplemented with official trade statistics from publications of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Develop- ment, the United Nations, and individual trade part- ners. Among Communist countries, only Romania and Yugoslavia report trade statistics to the I M F. Data for the USSR and most other East European countries are obtained from the official statistics of those countries. For countries that do not report official trade statistics, data are often derived from trade agreements and other trade indicators. In addition, the official trade partner statistics have been adjusted for unrecorded trade where documen- tary evidence clearly indicates that the official statis- tics underreport actual levels of trade. Examples of unrecorded trade for which adjustments have been made include: US grain exports transshipped to China through Canadian ports, which are not recorded either by the United States or by Canada as an export to China; and oil exports to China, which are not included in the official trade statistics of some Middle East countries. Approved For Release 2001/03/06 : CIA-RDP86B00985R000300040005-1 Aw. Approved For Release 2001/03/06 : CIA-RDP86B00985R0b0300040005-1 Hong Kong's reexports of Chinese goods to third countries and reexports of third-country goods to China are not considered "unrecorded" trade. These reexports are recorded as trade between China and Hong Kong, not as trade between the country of origin and the country of ultimate destination. This proce- dure is in keeping with our purpose of identifying the financial aspects of trade flows, since from the Chinese standpoint, payments are effected at or near the time the reexported goods cross the China-Hong Kong border, not at the time the goods change hands between Hong Kong and third-country merchants. Procedures for Estimating Missing Data Although the majority of China's trade partners report trade regularly on a monthly or quarterly basis, to estimate the overall level of China's trade on a quarterly basis it is necessary to make estimates for countries that lag in reporting data and for countries that report annual data but not quarterly data. In recent years more than 80 percent of China's trade eventually has been reported on a monthly or quarterly basis; for the remainder only annual data are available. Since the early 1970s the share of countries reporting monthly or quarterly data has increased steadily as many of the LDCs improved their statistical collection systems. The basic assumption behind the methods used in this report to estimate missing quarterly data is that the trends in trade with China for the group of countries which have reported quarterly data are representative of trends in the overall level of China's exports or imports. This assumption is supported by empirical evidence: market shares for China's major trading partners remain relatively constant from one quarter to the next. As a result, the aggregate amount of missing data can be predicted with reasonable accuracy. Estimates for missing quarters are generated in the following manner. For those trading partners which do not report imports and exports in all four quarters but which do report annual totals, the residual is distrib- uted among missing quarters in exact proportion to the distribution of trade for all those countries which have reported in each of the missing quarters. The most common subset of this case consists of countries which do not report quarterly data at all. For countries that lag in reporting data, the missing data are derived by extrapolation. If partial monthly data are available for any quarter, the estimate for that quarter is a weighted average of monthly data. If no monthly data are available the estimate is based on the trend in trade reported by other countries. Quarterly data for all countries which have reported are summed and indexed, and successive indexes are applied to the last reported or interpolated quarterly data of those countries which have not reported. The procedure may be expressed algebraically as follows: j Qi QJl where: Q = Quarterly value of exports or imports, t = Quarter for which estimate is made, i = A reporting country, jai, A = 1 if both Qc and Q/, are available, A = 0 if either Qt and Q is not available. Appendix tables A-1.1 through A-9.4 present our estimates for China's trade by area for 1970 through 1978. Tables ending with the .2 show the share of the estimate which is obtained directly from reported trade partner data; .3, the share derived by interpolation of the reported annual data; and .4, the share derived by extrapolation. Naturally, as more and more time elapses between the close of any given quarter and the date an estimate is made, a larger share of the estimate is derived from reported data. Given normal reporting 10 Approved For Release 2001/03/06 : CIA-RDP86B00985R000300040005-1 Approved For`~Celease 2001/03/06 : CIA-RDP8 00985R000300040005-1 lags by China's trade partners, generally about 65 percent of China's exports and 75 percent of China's imports are reported within three months of the close of a quarter. Within eight quarters, over 98 percent of China's trade has normally been reported. A caveat regarding the accuracy of our estimates is in order. Although the aggregate data in the tables are presented to the nearest tenth of a million US dollars, these are point estimates, and the size of error is an inverse function of the amount of data available. Estimates for the most recent quarter perhaps are accurate to two digits. (As defined here, accuracy refers to the comparability of the initial estimates with the final figures which will be available when all trade partner data are reported; comparability with official Chinese data is addressed later in this appendix.) Several considerations-both theoretical and practi- cal-influenced our decision to present data on an exports, f.o.b. imports, f.o.b. basis. The primary theoretical reason, mentioned above, is to provide a merchandise trade account which can be used in assessing China's balance of payments. A more practi- cal reason is that, because the trade partners export data (China's imports) are already recorded on an f.o.b. basis, the data are more accurate, and therefore more useful in other applications as well, for example, projecting foreign trade and comparing market shares. The procedure used to adjust the trade partner's imports (China's exports) from a c.i.f. basis to an f.o.b. basis remains the same as before. The f.o.b. values are found by dividing the c.i.f. values by the following freight factors, wfi'ich are based on the distance of the voyage between China and the country in question: for Japan and countries in south and Southeast Asia, 1.05; for countries in the Middle East, sub-Saharan Africa, and the Western Hemisphere, 1.10; and for countries in North Africa and Europe, 1.15. No adjustment is made, of course, in the case of contiguous countries, such as Hong Kong, Macao, and the USSR, or in the case of trade partners that already report their imports on an f.o.b. basis. This latter category includes the United States, Canada, Australia, all East European countries (except Hungary), and several less developed countries. Since China's exports to most countries consist of a similar mix of goods-mostly shipped as general cargo, distance is the major factor affecting freight and insurance costs. On the other hand, the shipping charges for China's imports appear to be as much a function of the type of commodity transported as of the distance of the voyage. Freight charges for capital goods and other finished products, which have a high value to weight ratio, are a smaller share of the f.o.b. value than are freight charges for bulk commodities, which have a low value to weight ratio. Since China's imports of finished manufactures are skewed towards Western Europe and Japan, an assessment of the c.i.f. value of China's imports, based on the above freight factors, may not be accurate for any particular country. For that reason, only an aggregate estimate of China's imports, calculated on a c.i.f. basis, will be presented. (See appendix B.) No adjustment is made to the data to account for the leads and lags in trade partner reporting. This proce- dure was discontinued in the late 1960s, first, because the data were insufficient to make adjustments for a major portion of China's trade, and secondly, because the net effect on the annual estimate was too small to warrant the data collection effort. For estimates covering shorter periods, however, differences in the timing of data could be a significant source of discrepancy between data reported by China and its trading partners. Ideally, in working with balance-of-payments ques- tions, both exports and imports should be recorded at the time payments are made or (in lieu of cash payments) credits are drawn. Generally these transac- tions occur within a short time after goods are shipped. For that reason trade partner export data should closely coincide with Chinese payments. Since over half of China's exports go to countries within a five-day voyage, the trade partner data may also provide a good approximation of Chinese export receipts. Approved For Release 2001/03/06 : CIA-RDP86B00985R000300040005-1 Approved For Release 2001/03/06 : CIA-RDP86B00985R000300040005-1 The June meetings of the NPC were notable for, among other things, the public release of official Chinese statistics. Included among these were the first absolute trade statistics (total exports and total im- ports) since the late 1950s. When used in conjunction with a number of percentage increase statistics re- leased over the past few years, they allow reconstruc- tion of an export and import series for the period since 1977. Tables A-l 1 and A-12 present a comparison of our estimates-converted to yuan at average quarterly exchange rates-with the given and derived Chinese statistics. The given Chinese statistics are in bold-face types, along with the corresponding CIA estimates. * A key question when using the Chinese percentage-increase statements is whether the increases refer to a yuan-based series or a US dollar based series. The Ministry of Trade probably keeps accounts in both currencies. Several times in 1978, percentage increases apparently referred to the dollar series whereas more recently the yuan series seems to be preferred. In January 1979 the Chinese initially claimed that exports in 1978 were 28.6 percent above the level of 1977, and imports were 50 percent higher. No mention was made of the currency in which the calculations were made. Later, at the NPC, the Chinese claimed 1978 exports had increased 20 percent over 1977, and imports had increased 41.4 percent. These figures were clearly connected to the absolute yuan figures for 1978, which were released at the same time. We believe the earlier figures were calculated in terms of US dollars and later converted into yuan for the benefit of members attending the NPC. Another difficulty in using the Chinese statistics is the proclivity of the Chinese to give apparently rounded percentage increases for either exports or imports in combination with apparently exact increases in the other. Naturally this makes it difficult to interpret the number of significant digits in the data they are providing. Approved For Release 2001/03/06 : CIA-RDP86B00985R000300040005-1 Approved For Release 2001/03/06 : CIA-RDP86B00985R000300040n05-1 WORLD .................... 504.6 482.4 472.6 698.0 2,157.8 494.2 590.6 496.4 463.1 2,044.2 NON-COMMUNISTS COUNTRIES. 393.1 378.1 362.4 542.2 1,675.9 402.0 482.9 402.4 368.0 1,655. DEVELOPED COUNTRIES...... 173.6 158.4 140.3 185.9 658.1 338.2 397.8 331.8 304.0 1,371 EAST ASIA AND PACIFIC.. 72.6 60.8 62.3 86.4 282.2 163.8 210.9 166.9 161.0 702... NORTH AMERICA .......... 3.8 4.8 5.9 3.6 18.2 32.7 44.3 43.2 15.2 135.4 WESTERN EUROPE ......... 97.2 92.7 72.0 95.9 357.8 141.7 142.6 121.6 127.9 533.9 LESS DEVELOPED COUNTRIES- 219.6 219.8 222.1 356.3 1,017.8 63.8 85.1 70.6 64.0 283.4 SOUTHEAST ASIA ......... 152.3 161.2 158.4 243.0 714.9 13.6 14.9 13.7 13.1 55.2 SOUTH ASIA ............. 17.3 15.1 16.4 23.9 72.7 14.8 27.7 20.4 18.6 81.5 MIDDLE EAST ............ 21.0 16.9 18.6 20.8 77.4 10.1 8.4 4.2 4.9 27.6 NORTH AFRICA ........... 12.1 4.8 6.8 19.4 43.0 8.2 13.2 6.9 5.1 33.4 SUB-SAHARA AFRICA...... 15.1 20.3 20.4 46.7 102.5 16.5 19.6 24.3 21.4 81.8 LATIN AMER. & CARIBBEAN 1.8 1.5 1.5 2.4 7.3 .6 1.3 1.0 1.0 3.9 COMMUNIST COUNTRIES...... 111.4 104.3 110.2 155.8 481.9 92.2 107.7 94.0 95.0 388.9 USSR ................... 5.1 4.9 4.7 7.0 21.7 6.0 7.2 6.0 5.6 24.9 EASTERN EUROPE ......... 58.9 54.0 61.2 83.2 257.2 52.6 60.3 54.3 58.0 225.2 OTHER .................. 47.4 45.4 44.4 65.6 202.9 33.5 40.1 33.7 31.4 138.9 IMPORTS ------------------------- I II III IV YEAR WORLD .................... 66.28 66.26 66.35 66.36 100.00 77.48 77.49 77.50 77.51 100.00 NON-COMMUNISTS COUNTRIES. 83.07 83.16 82.82 83.06 100.00 93.35 93.39 93.33 93.20 100.00 DEVELOPED COUNTRIES...... 99.29 99.27 99.19 99.09 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 EAST ASIA AND PACIFIC.. 98.40 98.18 98.25 98.14 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 NORTH AMERICA .......... 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 WESTERN EUROPE......... 99.94 99.94 99.93 99.92 100.00 100.00 99.99 100.00 100.00 100.00 LESS DEVELOPED COUNTRIES. 70.25 71.55 72.48 74.69 100.00 58.10 62.52 61.98 60.90 100.00 SOUTHEAST ASIA ......... 65.37 68.75 68.86 70.04 100.00 20.78 13.83 21.11 22.78 100.00 SOUTH ASIA ............. 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 MIDDLE EAST ............ 79.00 74.54 77.75 70.34 100.00 89.16 84.57 73.94 79.57 100.00 NORTH AFRICA ........... 79.09 49.46 65.33 82.00 100.00 73.31 80.27 68.38 60.06 100.00 SUB-SAHARA AFRICA...... 71.83 79.97 80.52 87.67 100.00 24.97 24.81 48.94 45.83 100.00 LATIN AMER. & CARIBBEAN 22.76 9.52 10.20 20.40 100.00 44.05 69.54 66.17 67.24 100.00 COMMUNIST COUNTRIES...... 7.05 4.99 12.20 8.24 100.00 8.27 6.17 9.75 16.72 100.00 USSR ................... .00 .00 .00 .00 100.00 .00 .00 .00 .00 100.00 EASTERN EUROPE ......... 13.33 9.63 21.97 15.30 100.00 14.47 11.00 16.86 27.40 100.00 OTHER .................. .01 .00 .02 .16 100.00 .00 .00 .00 .00 100.00 Approved For Release 2001/03/06 : CIA-RDP86B00985R000300040005-1 Approved For Release 2001/03/06 : CIA-RDP86B00985R000300040005-1 WORLD .................... 33.72 33.74 33.65 33.64 0.00 22.52 22.51 22.50 22.49 0.00 NON-COMMUNISTS COUNTRIES. 16.93 16.84 17.18 16.94 .00 6.65 6.61 6.67 6.80 .00 DEVELOPED COUNTRIES...... .71 .73 .81 .91 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 EAST ASIA AND PACIFIC.. 1.60 1.82 1.75 1.86 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 NORTH AMERICA .......... .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 WESTERN EUROPE ......... .06 .06 .07 .08 .00 .00 .01 .00 .00 .00 LESS DEVELOPED COUNTRIES. 29.75 28.45 27.52 25.31 .00 41.90 37.48 38.02 39.10 .00 SOUTHEAST ASIA ......... 34.63 31.25 31.14 29.96 .00 79.22 86.17 78.89 77.22 .00 SOUTH ASIA ............. .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 MIDDLE EAST ............ 21.00 25.46 22.25 29.66 .00 10.84 15.43 26.06 20.43 .00 NORTH AFRICA ........... 20.91 50.54 34.67 18.00 .00 26.69 19.73 31.62 39.94 .00 SUB-SAHARA AFRICA...... 28.17 20.03 19.48 12.33 .00 75.03 75.19 51.06 54.17 .01~ LATIN AMER. & CARIBBEAN 77.24 90.48 89.80 79.60 .00 55.95 30.46 33.83 32.76 .00 COMMUNIST COUNTRIES ...... 92.95 95.01 87.80 91.76 .00 91.73 93.83 90.25 83.28 .00 USSR ................... 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 .00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 .00 EASTERN EUROPE ......... 86.67 90.37 78.03 84.70 .00 85.53 89.00 83.14 72.60 .00 OTHER .................. 99.99 100.00 99.98 99.84 .00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 .00 WORLD .................... 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 NON-COMMUNISTS COUNTRIES. .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 DEVELOPED COUNTRIES...... .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 EAST ASIA AND PACIFIC.. .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 NORTH AMERICA .......... .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 WESTERN EUROPE ......... .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 LESS DEVELOPED COUNTRIES. .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 SOUTHEAST ASIA ......... .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 Od SOUTH ASIA ............. .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 MIDDLE EAST ............ .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 NORTH AFRICA........... .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 SUB-SAHARA AFRICA...... .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 LATIN AMER. & CARIBBEAN .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 COMMUNIST COUNTRIES...... .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 ?'-J USSR ................... .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 EASTERN EUROPE ......... .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 OTHER .................. .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 Approved For Release 2001/03/06 : CIA-RDP86B00985R000300040005-1 Approved For Release 2001/03/06 : CIA-RDP86B00985R00030004OD05-1 WORLD .................... 560.9 548.8 576.6 849.8 2.536.1 455.6 525.0 572.1 590.5 2,143.1 NON-COMMUNISTS COUNTRIES. 430.1 425.6 441.3 653.5 1,950.4 351.9 399.4 437.1 442.3 1,630.7 DEVELOPED COUNTRIES...... 187.7 159.7 180.9 233.9 762.2 276.8 311.5 356.6 343.9 1,28, EAST ASIA AND PACIFIC.. 88.5 76.5 79.4 108.8 353.2 135.2 130.8 164.2 176.5 60 NORTH AMERICA.......... 4.6 5.2 9.5 8.2 27.5 33.1 66.2 65.2 37.1 201.6 WESTERN EUROPE......... 94.6 78.0 91.9 116.9 381.4 108.6 114.4 127.1 130.3 480.4 LESS DEVELOPED COUNTRIES- 242.4 265.9 260.4 419.6 1,188.2 75.0 88.0 80.5 98.4 342.0 SOUTHEAST ASIA ......... 168.2 188.6 174.2 270.4 801.3 9.0 11.1 10.6 13.4 44.2 SOUTH ASIA ............. 16.6 11.6 17.2 13.0 58.3 19.7 14.2 14.9 11.8 60.4 MIDDLE EAST ............ 14.7 11.3 19.8 31.7 77.4 7.5 2.5 2.1 8.7 20.8 NORTH AFRICA ........... 9.3 14.9 10.4 36.9 71.4 9.0 28.3 11.3 9.6 58.1 SUB-SAHARA AFRICA...... 32.0 38.0 36.7 65.2 171.9 26.6 26.5 29.7 33.1 115.9 LATIN AMER. & CARIBBEAN 1.6 1.6 2.2 2.4 7.8 3.2 5.4 12.0 21.9 42.5 COMMUNIST COUNTRIES...... 130.8 123.1 135.3 196.2 585.6 103.8 125.5 135.0 148.2 512.4 USSR ................... 16.8 16.5 17.3 25.6 76.2 16.5 19.2 21.0 21.3 77.9 EASTERN EUROPE......... 66.0 59.4 68.3 97.4 291.1 56.8 71.0 75.2 87.6 290.6 OTHER .................. 48.0 47.2 49.7 73.3 218.4 30.4 35.3 38.8 39.3 143.9 --------------------------------------------- WORLD .................... 67.95 67.78 67.70 67.74 NON-COMMUNISTS COUNTRIES. 86.09 86.16 85.89 86.04 DEVELOPED COUNTRIES ...... 99.34 99.24 99.30 99.20 EAST ASIA AND PACIFIC.. 98.60 98.41 98.40 98.27 NORTH AMERICA .......... 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 WESTERN EUROPE......... 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 LESS DEVELOPED COUNTRIES. 75.83 78.31 76.57 78.71 SOUTHEAST ASIA ......... 71.14 74.68 71.17 72.59 SOUTH ASIA ............. 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 MIDDLE EAST ............ 79.52 73.52 84.17 85.22 NORTH AFRICA ........... 99.25 99.53 99.33 99.72 SUB-SAHARA AFRICA...... 82.23 85.28 83.17 87.10 LATIN AMER. & CARIBBEAN 19.58 17.76 35.95 16.57 COMMUNIST COUNTRIES...... 8.33 4.22 8.37 6.80 USSR ................... .00 .00 .00 .00 EASTERN EUROPE ......... 16.49 8.74 16.55 13.63 OTHER .................. .05 .02 .04 .10 99.86 74.36 74.12 99.94 93.44 93.28 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 99.89 69.24 69.50 100.00 21.77 26.12 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 95.86 85.73 100.00 99.22 99.72 99.34 47.56 38.69 98.46 48.56 64.27 99.62 9.66 13.15 100.00 .00 .00 100.00 17.63 23.25 98.97 .00 .00 74.68 75.14 99.80 94.18 94.17 99.92 100.00 100.00 100.00 iQ .00 100.00 100.00 10'0.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 68.42 15.09 100.00 81.33 99.20 53.33 82.54 11.51 .00 20.67 .00 100.00 100.00 73.80 99.61 31.81 100.00 100.00 100.00 95.37 100.00 99.06 100.00 57.65 100.00 90.22 96.85 18.36 99.44 .00 100.00 31.06 100.00 .00 98.00 Approved For Release 2001/03/06 : CIA-RDP86B00985R000300040005-1 Approved For Release 2001/03/06 : CIA-RDP86B00985R000300040005-1 WORLD .................... 31.90 32.08 32.16 32.13 0.00 25.44 25.68 25.12 24.66 0.00 NON-COMMUNISTS COUNTRIES. 13.84 13.78 14.04 13.90 .00 6.48 6.64 5.74 5.75 .00 DEVELOPED COUNTRIES...... .66 .76 .70 .80 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 EAST ASIA AND PACIFIC.. 1.40 1.59 1.60 1.73 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 NORTH AMERICA .......... .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 WESTERN EUROPE ......... .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 -00 LESS DEVELOPED COUNTRIES. 24.05 21.59 23.31 21.20 .00 30.37 30.13 31.13 25.83 .00 SOUTHEAST ASIA ......... 28.86 25.32 28.83 27.41 .00 78.23 73.88 84.91 68.19 .00 SOUTH ASIA ............. .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 MIDDLE EAST ............ 20.48 26.48 15.83 14.78 .00 4.14 14.27 18.67 4.63 .00 NORTH AFRICA ........... .75 .47 .67 .28 .00 .78 .28 .80 .94 .000 SUB-SAHARA AFRICA...... 16.95 14.06 16.11 12.36 .00 52.44 61.31 46.67 42.35 .C LATIN AMER. & CARIBBEAN 78.72 80.54 62.76 81.91 .00 42.45 29.59 14.47 8.09 .tom,, COMMUNIST COUNTRIES...... 91.27 95.37 91.24 92.84 .00 89.75 86.30 87.92 81.11 .00 USSR ................... 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 .00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 .00 EASTERN EUROPE ......... 83.51 91.26 83.45 86.37 .00 82.37 76.75 79.33 68.94 00 OTHER .................. 98.87 98.92 98.91 98.95 .00 97.96 98.02 98.01 97.99 .00 WORLD .................... 0.14 0.14 0.14 0.13 0.14 NON-COMMUNISTS COUNTRIES. .07 .07 .07 .06 .06 .08 .08 .08 .08 .08 DEVELOPED COUNTRIES...... .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 EAST ASIA AND PACIFIC.. .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 NORTH AMERICA .......... .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 WESTERN EUROPE ......... .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 LESS DEVELOPED COUNTRIES. .12 .10 .11 .09 .11 .39 .38 .45 .38 SOUTHEAST ASIA ......... .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 SOUTH ASIA ............. .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 MIDDLE EAST ............ .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 NORTH AFRICA ........... .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 SUB-SAHARA AFRICA...... .82 .66 .72 .54 .66 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 LATIN AMER. & CARIBBEAN 1.70 1.70 1.28 1.52 1.52 8.99 6.14 2.99 1.69 3. 18 COMMUNIST COUNTRIES...... .40 .41 .38 .36 .38 .60 .56 .57 .53 .56 USSR ................... .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 EASTERN EUROPE ......... .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 OTHER .................. 1.08 1.06 1.05 .96 1.03 2.04 1.98 1.99 2.01 2.00 Approved For Release 2001/03/06 : CIA-RDP86B00985R000a00040005-1 Approved For Release 2001/03/06 : CIA-RDP86B00985R000300040005-1 I II III IV YEAR I II III IV YEAR WORLD .................... 728.9 758.4 788.7 947.7 3,223.7 564.0 598.5 555.5 866.7 2,584.2 NON-COMMUNISTS COUNTRIES. 561.8 588.9 607.7 726.5 2,484.8 443.3 473.4 424.8 690.0 2,030.8 DEVELOPED COUNTRIES...... 247.1 253.6 264.2 328.9 1,093.8 332.8 332.2 324.8 533.7 1,52 EAST ASIA AND PACIFIC.. 118.1 119.1 123.5 174.7 535.4 183.7 144.0 145.2 195.4 66 NORTH AMERICA .......... 13.6 18.3 25.4 23.6 80.9 27.8 60.3 60.4 177.3 325.8 WESTERN EUROPE ......... 115.4 116.2 115.3 130.5 477.5 121.3 127.9 119.2 161.0 529.4 LESS DEVELOPED COUNTRIES. 314.7 335.3 343.5 397.6 1,391.0 110.6 141.2 100.0 156.3 507.4 SOUTHEAST ASIA ......... 211.0 228.9 251.3 278.9 970.1 12.9 16.1 18.2 22.0 69.3 SOUTH ASIA ............. 6.7 7.8 7.2 16.1 37.7 13.1 12.0 6.1 13.4 44.5 MIDDLE EAST ............ 29.1 26.9 25.9 31.4 113.3 18.1 9.4 1.7 29.1 58.3 NORTH AFRICA ........... 17.5 20.6 14.9 18.1 71.1 20.4 13.1 7.5 14.4 55.4 SUB-SAHARA AFRICA...... 47.3 47.9 40.8 49.2 185.2 20.4 45.8 35.5 29.4 130.4 LATIN AMER. & CARIBBEAN 3.1 3.2 3.4 4.0 13.7 25.7 44.7 31.1 47.9 149.5 COMMUNIST COUNTRIES...... 167.0 169.5 180.9 221.3 738.8 120.6 125.2 130.7 176.7 553.4 USSR ................... 30.2 31.3 32.8 39.3 133.6 27.0 28.7 26.5 38.9 121.2 EASTERN EUROPE ......... 78.2 77.7 84.7 105.7 346.4 64.8 65.9 76.0 96.2 302.8 OTHER .................. 58.6 60.5 63.4 76.2 258.8 28.8 30.6 28.3 41.6 129.4 I II III IV YEAR I II III IV YEA WORLD .................... 70.76 71.54 70.66 70.05 99.62 73.35 73.60 73.87 75.27 98.56 NON-COMMUNISTS COUNTRIES. 89.58 90.49 89.50 88.62 99.62 90.22 90.63 90.54 91.27 98.34 DEVELOPED COUNTRIES ...... 99.07 99.06 99.05 99.09 100.00 99.43 99.37 100.00 100.00 100.00 EAST ASIA AND PACIFIC.. 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 NORTH AMERICA .......... 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 93.17 96.52 100.00 100.00 100.00 WESTERN EUROPE ......... 98.01 97.95 97.83 97.70 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 LESS DEVELOPED COUNTRIES. 82.12 84.01 82.16 79.97 99.33 62.51 70.07 59.83 61.45 93.35 SOUTHEAST ASIA ......... 88.35 88.91 89.39 88.52 100.00 53.25 60.09 67.46 60.53 100.00 SOUTH ASIA ............. 49.78 55.41 49.44 72.83 100.00 53.95 46.48 2.15 35.11 100.00 MIDDLE EAST............ 72.77 69.57 67.02 67.22 95.22 97.27 94.76 72.93 97.43 96.33 NORTH AFRICA ........... 87.40 88.94 83.94 84.11 100.00 68.09 47.22 14.60 35.00 100.00 SUB-SAHARA AFRICA...... 67.35 76.05 58.21 45.94 99.88 35.03 73.27 64.83 33.58 75.78 LATIN AMER. & CARIBBEAN 11.55 10.86 12.52 12.90 73.00 64.38 78.22 71.05 72.45 100.00 COMMUNIST COUNTRIES...... 7.45 5.70 7.38 9.06 99.62 11.33 9.20 19.69 12.78 99.39 USSR ................... .00 .00 .00 .00 100.00 .00 .00 .00 .00 100.00 EASTERN EUROPE ......... 15.88 12.42 15.76 18.95 100.00 21.08 17.47 33.89 23.47 100.00 OTHER .................. .03 .01 .01 .01 98.92 .00 .00 .00 .00 97.37 Approved For Release 2001/03/06 : CIA-RDP86B00985R000300040005-1 Approved For Release 2001/03/06 : CIA-RDP86B00985R000300040005-1 WORLD .................... 28.86 28.09 28.96 29.58 0.00 25.16 25.00 24.74 29.27 0.00 NON-COMMUNISTS COUNTRIES. 10.04 9.14 10.11 11.01 .00 8.06 7.76 7.81 7.07 .00 DEVELOPED COUNTRIES...... .93 .94 .95 .91 .00 .57 .63 .00 .00 .00 EAST ASIA AND PACIFIC.. .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 NORTH AMERICA.......... .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 6.83 3.48 .00 .00 .00 WESTERN EUROPE......... 1.99 2.05 2.17 2.30 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 LESS DEVELOPED COUNTRIES. 17.19 15.34 17.17 19.35 .00 30.60 24.53 33.17 31.21 .00 SOUTHEAST ASIA ......... 11.65 11.09 10.61 11.48 .00 46.75 39.91 32.54 39.47 .00 SOUTH ASIA ............. 50.22 44.59 50.56 27.17 .00 46.05 53.52 97.85 64.89 .00 MIDDLE EAST ............ 22.97 25.70 27.90 27.77 .00 .06 .11 .60 .07 .00 NORTH AFRICA ........... 12.60 11.06 16.06 15.89 .00 31.91 52.78 85.40 65.00 .00 SUB-SAHARA AFRICA...... 32.54 23.84 41.66 53.93 LATIN AMER. & CARIBBEAN 60.98 62.11 59.85 61.07 .00 35.62 21.78 28.95 27.55 COMMUNIST COUNTRIES ...... 92.17 93.91 92.24 90.57 .00 88.04 90.19 79.77 86.57 .00 USSR ................... 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 .00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 .00 EASTERN EUROPE ......... 84.12 87.58 84.24 81.05 .00 78.92 82.53 66.11 76.53 .00 OTHER .................. 98.88 98.90 98.92 98.92 .00 97.33 97.48 97.49 97.21 .00 WORLD .................... 0.38 0.37 0.38 0.37 0.38 1.49 1.40 1.39 1.46 1.44 NON-COMMUNISTS COUNTRIES. .38 .37 .38 .37 .38 1.72 1.61 1.65 1.66 1.66 DEVELOPED COUNTRIES...... .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 EAST ASIA AND PACIFIC.. .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 NORTH AMERICA.......... .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 WESTERN EUROPE ......... .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 LESS DEVELOPED COUNTRIES. .68 .65 .67 .68 .67 6.89 5.40 7.00 7.34 SOUTHEAST ASIA ......... .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 SOUTH ASIA ............. .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 MIDDLE EAST ............ 4.26 4.74 5.08 5.02 4.77 2.67 5.13 26.48 2.50 3.67 NORTH AFRICA ........... .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 SUB-SAHARA AFRICA...... .11 .11 .13 .13 .12 35.04 15.59 18.49 36.51 24.22 LATIN AMER. & CARIBBEAN 27.48 27.03 27.63 26.03 27.02 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 COMMUNIST COUNTRIES...... .38 .39 .38 .37 .38 .64 .62 .54 .66 .62 USSR ................... .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 EASTERN EUROPE ......... .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 OTHER .................. 1.09 1.09 1.07 1.08 1.08 2.67 2.52 2.51 2.79 2.64 Approved For Release 2001/03/06 : CIA-RDP86B00985R000300040005-1 Approved For Release 2001/03/06 : CIA-RDP86B00985R000300040005-1 WORLD .................... NON-COMMUNISTS COUNTRIES. DEVELOPED COUNTRIES ...... EAST ASIA AND PACIFIC.. NORTH AMERICA .......... WESTERN EUROPE ......... LESS DEVELOPED COUNTRIES. SOUTHEAST ASIA ......... SOUTH ASIA ............. MIDDLE EAST ............ NORTH AFRICA ........... SUB-SAHARA AFRICA ...... LATIN AMER. & CARIBBEAN COMMUNIST COUNTRIES ...... USSR ................... EASTERN EUROPE ......... OTHER .................. 936.3 1,182.5 1,394.0 1,592.1 5,104.7 750.4 950.5 1,118.6 1,279.0 4,098.4 345.1 448.1 487.2 547.0 1,827.4 173.7 249.2 278.2 324.4 1,025.6 23.1 31.8 28.8 31.0 114.7 148.3 167.1 180.1 191.5 687.1 405.3 502.3 631.4 732.1 2,271.0 286.4 349.2 444.4 518.8 1,598.8 16.1 17.6 25.9 25.1 84.7 35.0 41.6 55.3 60.5 192.5 15.6 25.9 24.1 21.3 87.0 47.1 61.0 74.5 96.2 278.7 5.1 7.0 7.2 10.1 29.3 185.9 232.0 275.4 313.0 1,006.3 25.2 31.8 36.8 42.3 136.1 80.1 98.7 121.1 135.7 435.7 80.5 101.5 117.5 135.0 434.5 888.9 1,051.5 1,236.5 1,449.2 4,626.0 757.1 893.8 1,042.5 1,224.0 3,917.4 568.0 709.4 851.9 996.0 3,12.3 267.8 272.3 277.7 372.6 1,19 110.6 233.1 335.3 349.4 1,02 4 189.6 204.0 238.9 274.0 906.4 189.0 184.4 190.6 228.0 792.1 34.1 38.3 59.0 64.2 195.6 19.5 10.2 11.0 13.3 54.0 53.6 24.0 21.0 39.8 138.5 20.1 19.8 8.5 3.8 52.2 44.1 47.1 48.5 56.5 196.3 17.6 45.0 42.6 50.3 155.5 131.8 157.7 194.0 225.2 708.6 26.1 31.1 36.1 42.4 135.7 67.2 80.5 104.6 120.2 372.4 38.5 46.0 53.3 62.6 200.5 WORLD .................... NON-COMMUNISTS COUNTRIES. DEVELOPED COUNTRIES ...... EAST ASIA AND PACIFIC.. NORTH AMERICA.......... WESTERN EUROPE ......... LESS DEVELOPED COUNTRIES. SOUTHEAST ASIA ......... SOUTH ASIA ............. MIDDLE EAST ............ NORTH AFRICA ........... SUB-SAHARA AFRICA ...... LATIN AMER. & CARIBBEAN COMMUNIST COUNTRIES ...... USSR ................... EASTERN EUROPE ......... OTHER .................. 75.39 75.43 74.99 74.85 99.64 92.28 92.31 91.35 91.31 99.66 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 85.71 85.44 84.67 84.82 99.39 99.47 99.46 96.81 96.85 100.00 56.95 50.29 61.02 53.71 100.00 43.53 39.85 47.58 45.03 95.48 78.00 83.30 79.18 72.99 100.00 53.40 54.76 56.95 61.70 99.29 14.82 20.68 11.13 27.91 88.91 7.21 6.28 8.53 7.58 99.55 .00 .00 .00 .00 100.00 16.71 14.75 19.39 17.48 100.00 .00 .00 .01 .00 98.96 IMPORTS ----------------------------------------------- I II III IV YEA. 80.15 79.97 79.33 79.29 98.59 92.64 92.57 92.61 92.61 98.50 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100-00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 70.53 63.98 59.56 60.32 92.57 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 59.74 8.03 .55 3.91 100.00 80.74 48.53 31.79 57.70 97.07 95.18 94.15 84.20 58.72 100.00 32.62 25.04 15.49 14.86 72.08 61.09 81.80 77.76 77.88 100.00 8.42 8.58 7.96 6.93 99.09 .00 .00 .00 .00 100.00 16.52 16.80 14.77 12.98 100.00 .00 .00 .00 .00 96.78 Approved For Release 2001/03/06 : CIA-RDP86B00985R000300040005-1 Approved For Release 2001/03/06 : CIA-RDP86B00985R000300040005-1 WORLD .................... 24.24 24.21 24.65 24.79 0.00 18.43 18.61 19.27 19.30 0.00 NON-COMMUNISTS COUNTRIES. 7.38 7.35 8.31 8.35 .00 5.86 5.93 5.89 5.89 .00 DEVELOPED COUNTRIES...... .00 -00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 EAST ASIA AND PACIFIC.. .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 NORTH AMERICA .......... .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 WESTERN EUROPE ......... .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 LESS DEVELOPED COUNTRIES. 13.66 13.91 14.73 14.59 .00 23.45 28.75 32.20 31.62 .00 SOUTHEAST ASIA ......... .53 .54 3.19 3.15 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 SOUTH ASIA ............. 43.05 49.71 38.98 46.29 .00 40.26 91.97 99.45 96.09 .00 MIDDLE EAST............ 51.89 55.28 48.13 50.52 .00 17.80 47.62 63.05 39.12 .00 NORTH AFRICA ........... 22.00 16.70 20.82 27.01 .00 4.82 5.85 15.80 41.28 SUB-SAHARA AFRICA...... 45.82 44.48 42.32 37.66 .00 43.34 48.46 54.40 54.90 LATIN AMER. & CARIBBEAN 73.42 68.44 76.54 62.14 .00 38.91 18.20 22.24 22.12 Od COMMUNIST COUNTRIES...... 92.35 93.27 91.03 91.97 .00 90.63 90.49 91.15 92.18 .00 USSR ................... 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 .00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 .00 EASTERN EUROPE ......... 83.29 85.25 80.61 82.52 .00 83.48 83.20 85.23 87.02 .00 OTHER .................. 98.97 98.96 98.95 98.96 .00 96.76 96.81 96.77 96.77 .00 WORLD.... ........... .... 0.36 0.36 0.36 0.36 0.36 1.42 1.42 1.41 1.41 1.41 NON-COMMUNISTS COUNTRIES. .34 .34 .34 .34 .34 1.50 1.50 1.51 1.50 1.50 DEVELOPED COUNTRIES...... .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 EAST ASIA AND PACIFIC.. .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 NORTH AMERICA .......... .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 9 WESTERN EUROPE ......... .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 LESS DEVELOPED COUNTRIES. .63 .65 .60 .59 .61 6.02 7.27 8.24 8.05 7. SOUTHEAST ASIA......... .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 SOUTH ASIA ............. .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 MIDDLE EAST............ 4.58 4.86 4.29 4.46 4.52 1.46 3.85 5.16 3.18 2.93 NORTH AFRICA ........... .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 SUB-SAHARA AFRICA...... .78 .76 .73 .64 .71 24.04 26.50 30.11 30.24 27.92 LATIN AMER. & CARIBBEAN 11.77 10.88 12.34 9.95 11.10 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 COMMUNIST COUNTRIES...... .45 .45 .45 .45 .45 .95 .93 .89 .90 .91 USSR ................... .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 EASTERN EUROPE ......... .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 OTHER .................. 1.03 1.03 1.05 1.04 1.04 3.24 3.19 3.23 3.23 3.22 Approved For Release 2001/03/06 : CIA-RDP86B00985R00030004,0005-1 Approved For Release 2001/03/06 : CIA-RDP86B00985R000300040005-1 ...... WORLD 1,500.4 1,727.1 1,620.1 1,892.5 6,739.9 1,547.0 1,705.3 1,878.0 1,676.5 6,806.7 .............. NON-COMMUNISTS COUNTRIES. 1,167.4 1,371.9 1,269.1 1,480.6 5,288.8 1295.8 , 1,467.2 1,633.5 1.443.9 5,840.4 DEVELOPED COUNTRIES...... 533.8 632.3 583.4 662.7 2,412.2 1 ,026.1 1,171.3 1,367.8 1,220.8 4,786.1 EAST ASIA AND PACIFIC.. 298.7 355.8 312.7 420.3 1,387.5 393.0 555.6 621.7 762.6 2,3 ....... NORTH AMERICA 33.5 45.1 54.4 41.0 173.9 408.4 334.6 398.3 123.5 1,2 ... ....... WESTERN EUROPE 201.7 231.5 216.2 201.4 850.8 224.8 281.1 347.8 334.7 1,188.4 .. LESS DEVELOPED COUNTRIES. 633.6 739.6 685.8 817.9 2,876.6 269.7 295.9 265.7 223.0 1,054.3 ....... SOUTHEAST ASIA 420.1 471.7 438.5 504.8 1,835.0 75.4 59.4 48.8 30.9 214.5 .. ...... SOUTH ASIA 23.7 39.7 27.8 16.2 107.4 10.0 12.3 20.4 11.7 54.4 ....... .... MIDDLE EAST 63.1 92.1 83.2 144.2 382.5 54.3 41.5 24.3 22.7 142.9 ........ ....... NORTH AFRICA 19.9 26.5 24.9 32.2 103.5 20.3 23.4 26.5 20.9 91.2 .... SUB-SAHARA AFRICA...... 92.4 94.7 92.3 100.4 379.6 47.0 52.4 56.2 47.3 202.7 & CARIBBEAN LATIN AMER 14.4 15.0 19.1 20.1 68.6 62.8 106.8 89.5 89.5 348.6 . COMMUNIST COUNTRIES...... 333.0 355.2 351.0 411.9 1,451.0 251.2 238.1 244.5 232.7 966.4 ........ USSR 31.1 35.5 33.5 39.3 139.3 32.7 35.9 39.4 35.1 143.1 ........... ........ EASTERN EUROPE 134.8 128.9 137.6 161.7 563.2 151.5 128.6 124.2 125.5 529.8 . OTHER .................. 167.0 190.7 179.8 210.9 748.5 67.0 73.6 80.9 72.1 293.5 TABLE A-5.2 SHARE OF 1974 ESTIMATE OBTAINED FROM TRADE PARTNER STATISTICS I II III IV YEP( ............ WORLD 73.24 72.76 72.62 72.51 99.54 82.25 81.92 81.95 82.25 98.65 ........ NON-COMMUNISTS COUNTRIES. 91.32 90.69 90.50 90.47 99.41 92.68 92.75 92.83 92.77 98.42 DEVELOPED COUNTRIES...... 99.96 99.96 99.96 99.96 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 EAST ASIA AND PACIFIC.. 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 NORTH AMERICA .......... 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 WESTERN EUROPE ......... 99.90 99.90 99.90 99.87 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 LESS DEVELOPED COUNTRIES. 84.04 82.76 82.46 82.78 98.92 64.85 64.04 55.90 53.16 91.26 SOUTHEAST ASIA ......... 92.24 92.11 91.99 91.85 100.00 99.92 99.87 99.83 99.75 100.00 ........... SOUTH ASIA 97.32 98.17 97.53 95.06 100.00 93.34 94.05 96.06 93.88 100.00 .. MIDDLE EAST............ 70.30 76.73 75.83 83.66 92.51 68.54 54.82 15.01 19.00 94.05 NORTH AFRICA ........... 81.02 83.75 83.69 85.19 100.00 65.07 66.81 67.82 63.59 100.00 SUB-SAHARA AFRICA...... 58.04 40.46 42.33 37.92 99.38 16.44 13.34 10.72 5.47 58.76 LATIN AMER. & CARIBBEAN 54.42 49.99 62.81 58.81 99.90 51.15 68.48 58.71 63.19 100.00 COMMUNIST COUNTRIES...... 9.85 3.50 7.94 7.98 100.00 28.44 15.16 9.28 16.98 100.00 ................. USSR .00 .00 .00 .00 100.00 .00 .00 .00 .00 100.00 .. EASTERN EUROPE ......... 24.33 9.64 20.24 20.32 100.00 47.17 28.08 18.26 31.49 100.00 OTHER .................. .00 .00 .00 .00 100.00 .00 .00 .00 .00 100.00 Approved For Release 2001/03/06 : CIA-RDP86B00985R000300040005-1 Approved For Release 2001/03/06 : CIA-RDP86B00985R000300040005-1 TABLE A-5.3 SHARE OF 1974 ESTIMATE DERIVED BY INTERPOLATION OF ANNUAL TRADE PARTNER STATISTICS WORLD .................... 26.29 26.78 26.92 27.03 0.00 16.42 16.74 16.68 16.39 0.00 NON-COMMUNISTS COUNTRIES. 8.08 8.73 8.91 8.95 .00 5.73 5.68 5.60 5.65 .00 DEVELOPED COUNTRIES...... .04 .04 .04 .04 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 EAST ASIA AND PACIFIC.. .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 NORTH AMERICA .......... .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 WESTERN EUROPE ......... .10 .10 .10 .13 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 LESS DEVELOPED COUNTRIES. 14.86 16.16 16.45 16.16 .00 27.53 28.19 34.44 36.58 .00 SOUTHEAST ASIA ......... 7.76 7.89 8.01 8.15 .00 .08 .13 .17 .25 .00 SOUTH ASIA ............. 2.68 1.83 2.47 4.94 .00 6.66 5.95 3.94 6.12 .00 MIDDLE EAST ............ 19.55 15.28 15.88 10.79 .00 27.98 40.06 75.26 71.73 .00 NORTH AFRICA ........... 18.98 16.25 16.31 14.81 .00 34.93 33.19 32.18 36.41 SUB-SAHARA AFRICA ...... 41.36 58.88 57.03 61.41 LATIN AMER. & CARIBBEAN 45.48 49.89 37.11 41.10 .00 48.85 31.52 41.29 36.81 .00 COMMUNIST COUNTRIES...... 90.15 96.50 92.06 92.02 .00 71.56 84.84 90.72 83.02 .00 USSR ................... 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 .00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 .00 EASTERN EUROPE ......... 75.67 90.36 79.76 79.68 .00 52.83 71.92 81.74 68.51 .00 OTHER .................. 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 .00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 .00 TABLE A-5.4 SHARE OF 1974 ESTIMATE DERIVED BY EXTRAPOLATION OF MONTHLY OR QUARTERLY TRADE PARTNER STATISTICS WORLD .................... 0.46 0.46 ? 0.46 0.46 0.46 1.33 1.35 1.37 1.36 1.35 NON-COMMUNISTS COUNTRIES. .60 .58 .59 .59 .59 1.59 1.57 1.57 1.58 1.58 DEVELOPED COUNTRIES...... .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 EAST ASIA AND PACIFIC.. .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 NORTH AMERICA .......... .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 WESTERN EUROPE ......... .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 LESS DEVELOPED COUNTRIES. 1.10 1.08 1.09 1.06 1.08 7.62 7.77 9.66 10.26 8.74 SOUTHEAST ASIA ......... .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 SOUTH ASIA ............. .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 MIDDLE EAST............ 10.14 8.00 8.28 5.55 7.49 3.49 5.12 9.73 9.27 5.94 NORTH AFRICA ........... .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 SUB-SAHARA AFRICA...... .60 .66 .64 .67 .64 39.72 39.85 41.52 43.93 41 .24 LATIN AMER. & CARIBBEAN .10 .12 .08 .09 .10 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 COMMUNIST COUNTRIES...... .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 USSR ................... .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 EASTERN EUROPE......... .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 OTHER .................. 00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 Approved For Release 2001/03/06 : CIA-RDP86B00985R000300040005-1 Approv?d For Release 2001/03/06 : CIA-RDP86B00985R000300040'005-1 WORLD .................... 1,558.2 1,704.0 1,744.1 2,125.2 7,131.45 1,668.3 1,643.1 1,775.5 1,744.4 6,829.4 NON-COMMUNISTS COUNTRIES. 1,250.9 1,396.1 1,423.2 1,684.3 5,754.35 1,439.5 1,425.8 1,529.6 1,431.6 5,824.7 DEVELOPED COUNTRIES...... 559.2 658.7 646.9 744.7 2,609.52 1,247.3 1,234.1 1,276.1 1,226.1 7 4,983.6 2 59 EAST ASIA AND PACIFIC.. NORTH AMERICA .......... 295.9 50.7 391.0 49.3 403.5 42.0 464.4 68.8 1,554.80 210.82 735.2 136.1 597.5 251.8 759.1 100.5 507. 186.1 , (_ 67 WESTERN EUROPE ......... 212.6 218.4 201.3 211.5 843.90 376.1 384.7 416.5 532.3 1,709.6 LESS DEVELOPED COUNTRIES. 691.7 737.3 776.4 939.6 3,144.83 192.2 191.7 253.5 205.6 841.1 SOUTHEAST ASIA ......... 449.3 503.7 534.9 623.2 2,110.86 30.8 35.4 50.8 72.4 189.3 SOUTH ASIA ............. 33.6 36.4 33.6 42.8 146.33 23.4 18.0 21.7 19.4 82.6 MIDDLE EAST ............ 91.6 81.0 91.4 134.6 398.67 32.6 42.5 47.2 34.2 156.6 NORTH AFRICA ........... 20.3 26.2 22.2 23.1 91.83 19.0 11.5 52.2 16.3 99.0 SUB-SAHARA AFRICA...... 85.1 79.7 84.8 106.0 355.37 25.1 28.3 31.4 34.1 118.8 LATIN AMER. & CARIBBEAN 11.8 10.3 9.7 10.0 41.78 61.3 56.0 50.3 29.1 194.8 COMMUNIST COUNTRIES...... 307.3 307.9 320.9 440.9 1,377.10 228.8 217.4 245.9 312.8 1,004.7 USSR ................... 19.9 21.7 27.9 80.3 149.80 19.6 19.2 26.3 63.9 129.0 EASTERN EUROPE ......... 156.2 142.6 146.8 186.8 632.40 139.8 130.0 145.9 178.0 593.7 OTHER .................. 131.2 143.6 146.2 173.9 594.90 69.3 68.1 73.7 70.9 282.0 I II III IV YEAR I II III IV YEA k WORLD .................... 73.86 73.84 75.24 75.69 99.16 82.6 82.69 83.36 83.70 99.65 NON-COMMUNISTS COUNTRIES. 88.61 88.84 88.83 88.59 98.96 94.3 94.32 93.71 93.53 99.59 DEVELOPED COUNTRIES ...... 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.0 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 EAST ASIA AND PACIFIC.. 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.0 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 NORTH AMERICA .......... 100.00 100-00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.0 100.00 100-00 100.00 100.00 WESTERN EUROPE ......... 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.0 100.00 100.00 100.00 100-00 LESS DEVELOPED COUNTRIES. 79.41 78.86 79.52 79.56 98.09 57.0 57.75 62.04 54.93 97.18 SOUTHEAST ASIA ......... 87.78 88.08 88.57 88.34 100.00 86.7 88.65 91.44 94.23 99.92 SOUTH ASIA ............. 39.29 38.65 32.30 36.84 97.88 28.4 8.71 18.00 11.78 96.46 MIDDLE EAST............ 75.04 69.12 72.17 77.31 92.25 4.6 28.17 30.00 7.05 94.51 NORTH AFRICA ........... 69.22 73.62 68.40 64.01 100.00 55.7 28.30 82.86 47.26 100.00 SUB-SAHARA AFRICA...... 60.72 54.12 55.91 55.49 92.75 24.4 34.20 35.90 43.13 89.84 LATIN AMER. & CARIBBEAN 61.00 51.15 44.56 36.38 99.35 94.8 94.41 76.13 60.40 100.00 COMMUNIST COUNTRIES...... 13.81 5.86 14.97 26.39 100.00 9.5 6.43 18.94 38.75 100.00 USSR ................... .00 .00 100.00 100.00 100.00 .0 .00 100.00 100.00 100.00 EASTERN EUROPE......... 27.17 12.66 13.72 19.30 100.00 15.5 10.74 13.89 32.19 100.00 OTHER .................. .00 .00 .00 .00 100.00 .0 .00 .00 .00 100.00 Approved For Release 2001/03/06 : CIA-RDP86B00985R000300040005-1 Approved For Release 2001/03/06 : CIA-RDP86B00985R000300040005-1 WORLD .................... 25.33 25.35 23.96 23.39 0.00 17.0 16.96 16.30 15.95 0.00 NON-COMMUNISTS COUNTRIES. 10.38 10.18 10.19 10.24 .00 5.3 5.28 5.89 6.05 .00 DEVELOPED COUNTRIES...... .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .0 .00 .00 .00 .00 EAST ASIA AND PACIFIC.. .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .0 .00 .00 .00 .00 NORTH AMERICA .......... .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .0 .00 .00 .00 .00 WESTERN EUROPE ......... .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .0 .00 .00 .00 .00 LESS DEVELOPED COUNTRIES. 18.77 19.27 18.67 18.35 .00 39.9 39.27 35.54 42.13 .00 SOUTHEAST ASIA......... 12.22 11.92 11.43 11.66 .00 13.2 11.23 8.48 5.71 .00 SOUTH ASIA ............. 58.68 59.32 65.45 61.00 .00 68.5 87.40 78.53 84.39 .00 MIDDLE EAST ............ 17.57 21.76 19.60 15.85 .00 88.9 66.96 65.30 86.56 .00 NORTH AFRICA ........... 30.78 26.38 31.60 35.99 .00 44.3 71.70 17.14 52.74 Orl SUB-SAHARA AFRICA...... 33.26 38.87 37.39 35.56 .00 63.7 55.53 54.16 47.86 .C LATIN AMER. & CARIBBEAN 38.53 48.18 54.72 62.84 .00 5.2 5.59 23.87 39.60 O0"' COMMUNIST COUNTRIES ...... 86.19 94.14 85.03 73.61 .00 90.5 93.57 81.06 61.25 .00 USSR ................... 100.00 100.00 .00 .00 .00 100.0 100.00 .00 .00 .00 EASTERN EUROPE ......... 72.83 87.34 86.28 80.70 .00 84.5 89.26 86.11 67.81 .00 OTHER .................. 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 .00 100.0 100.00 100.00 100.00 .00 WORLD .................... 0.81 0.81 0.80 0.93 0.84 0.4 0.35 0.35 0.35 0.35 NON-COMMUNISTS COUNTRIES. 1.01 .99 .99 1.17 1.04 .4 .40 .40 .42 .41 DEVELOPED COUNTRIES...... .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .0 .00 .00 .00 .00 EAST ASIA AND PACIFIC.. .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .0 .00 .00 .00 .00 NORTH AMERICA .......... .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .0 .00 .00 .00 0 WESTERN EUROPE ......... .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .0 .00 .00 .00 LESS DEVELOPED COUNTRIES. 1.82 1.87 1.81 2.09 1.91 3.0 2.98 2.42 2.94 2.b SOUTHEAST ASIA ......... .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .1 ii .08 .06 .08 SOUTH ASIA ............. 2.02 2.04 2.25 2.16 2.12 3.1 3.89 3.48 3.83 3.54 MIDDLE EAST ............ 7.39 9.12 8.23 6.84 7.75 6.5 4.87 4.71 6.39 5.49 NORTH AFRICA........... .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .0 .00 .00 .00 .00 SUB-SAHARA AFRICA...... 6.02 7.01 6.70 8.94 7.28 11.9 10.27 9.94 9.01 10.16 LATIN AMER. & CARIBBEAN .47 .67 .72 .77 .65 .0 .00 .00 .00 .00 COMMUNIST COUNTRIES...... .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .0 .00 .00 .00 .00 USSR ................... .00 .00 .00 Ob .00 .0 .00 .00 .00 .00 EASTERN EUROPE ......... .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .0 .00 .00 .00 .00 OTHER .................. .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .0 .00 .00 .00 .00 Approved For Release 2001/03/06 : CIA-RDP86B00985R000300040005-1 Approved For Release 2001/03/06 : CIA-RDP86B00985R000300040005-1 EXPORTS ----------------------------------------------- IMPORTS ----------------------------------------------- WORLD .................... 1,779.1 1,596.1 1,741.3 2,167.0 NON-COMMUNISTS COUNTRIES. 1,454.1 1,341.7 1,472.0 1,780.1 DEVELOPED COUNTRIES...... 659.3 581.3 664.4 792.3 EAST ASIA AND PACIFIC.. 321.3 305.0 349.6 445.8 NORTH AMERICA .......... 68.9 59.3 82.2 81.1 WESTERN EUROPE ......... 269.2 217.1 232.6 265.4 LESS DEVELOPED COUNTRIES. 794.8 760.4 807.6 987.8 SOUTHEAST ASIA ......... 545.6 522.2 557.1 662.4 SOUTH ASIA ............. 21.4 14.0 17.5 24.3 MIDDLE EAST ............ 95.3 90.5 93.4 148.9 NORTH AFRICA ........... 32.0 33.8 29.5 36.9 SUB-SAHARA AFRICA...... 91.3 88.5 100.5 101.6 LATIN AMER. & CARIBBEAN 9.1 11.2 9.6 13.7 COMMUNIST COUNTRIES...... 325.0 254.3 269.2 386.9 USSR ................... 62.3 22.3 24.7 69.2 EASTERN EUROPE ......... 138.1 120.4 122.7 166.4 OTHER .................. 124.7 111.6 121.9 151.2 7,283.5 1,850.7 1,630.8 1,164.4 933.8 5,579.6 6,047.9 1,526.9 1,356.3 924.8 694.0 4,501.8 2,697.4 1,294.5 1,150.5 769.3 554.0 3,768 3 1,421.7 675.0 565.3 401.5 312.8 1,95 291.5 151.1 80.7 65.4 37.5 33 984.2 468.4 504.5 302.3 203.7 1,479.0 3,350.5 232.3 205.8 155.5 139.9 733.5 2,287.5 66.1 41.6 58.0 54.2 219.8 77.2 31.1 20.4 14.0 16.7 82.2 428.0 57.3 49.5 27.5 25.7 160.0 132.3 18.7 16.2 11.9 9.5 56.2 381.8 28.3 44.5 23.6 13.6 110.1 43.7 30.8 33.7 20.5 20.2 105.2 1,235.6 323.9 274.5 239.6 239.8 1,077.8 178.5 55.4 30.8 63.5 88.7 238.4 547.6 191.8 176.2 127.9 112.5 608.4 509.5 76.7 67.5 48.2 38.6 231.0 SHARE OF 1976 ESTIMATE OBTAINED FROM TRADE PARTNER STATISTICS IMPORTS ----------------------------------------------- WORLD .................... 81.86 81.55 81.43 81.48 NON-COMMUNISTS COUNTRIES. 94.12 93.87 93.78 93.62 DEVELOPED COUNTRIES ...... 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 EAST ASIA AND PACIFIC.. 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 NORTH AMERICA .......... 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 WESTERN EUROPE ......... 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 LESS DEVELOPED COUNTRIES. 89.24 89.19 88.67 88.51 SOUTHEAST ASIA......... 97.97 97.74 97.38 97.25 SOUTH ASIA ............. 89.02 85.02 86.87 88.26 MIDDLE EAST ............ 71.50 73.16 71.59 77.87 NORTH AFRICA ........... 59.04 65.29 56.60 56.94 SUB-SAHARA AFRICA...... 70.46 68.53 69.66 62.85 LATIN AMER. & CARIBBEAN 46.49 61.01 50.22 57.00 COMMUNIST COUNTRIES...... 27.01 16.50 13.86 25.61 USSR ................... 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 EASTERN EUROPE ......... 18.45 16.34 10.28 17.96 OTHER .................. .00 .00 .00 .00 YEAR I II III IV YEAt.. 98.39 81.8 81.32 81.32 81.31 99.31 98.06 93.6 93.16 92.84 92.33 99.14 100.00 100.0 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.0 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.0 100.00 100-00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.0 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 96.50 58.2 54.95 57.43 61.97 94.73 99.82 99.8 99.79 99.89 99.90 99.94 95.76 36.9 15.07 11.90 40.55 97.20 92.38 48.6 47.55 32.60 42.21 94.50 100.00 7.3 5.13 8.00 6.97 100.00 83.80 82.5 74.16 65.15 51.33 75.44 64.57 17.0 33.10 21.58 36.10 99.62 100.00 25.7 22.80 36.86 49.41 100.00 100.00 100.0 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 14.5 18.04 19.41 26.49 100.00 100.00 .0 .00 .00 .00 100.00 Approved For Release 2001/03/06 : CIA-RDP86B00985R000300040005-1 Approved For Release 2001/03/06 : CIA-RDP86B00985R000300040005-1 TABLE A-7.3 SHARE OF 1976 ESTIMATE DERIVED BY INTERPOLATION OF ANNUAL TRADE PARTNER STATISTICS WORLD .................... 16.76 16.84 16.86 16.81 0.00 17.8 17.85 17.84 17.85 0.00 NON-COMMUNISTS COUNTRIES. 4.19 4.20 4.18 4.30 .00 5.9 5.83 6.10 6.53 .00 DEVELOPED COUNTRIES...... .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .0 .00 .00 .00 .00 EAST ASIA AND PACIFIC.- .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .0 .00 .00 .00 .00 NORTH AMERICA .......... .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .0 .00 .00 .00 .00 WESTERN EUROPE ......... .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .0 .00 .00 .00 .00 LESS DEVELOPED COUNTRIES. 7.66 7.41 7.63 7.74 .00 38.6 38.43 36.29 32.38 .00 SOUTHEAST ASIA ......... 2.01 2.25 2.30 2.41 .00 .1 .13 .07 .06 .00 SOUTH ASIA ............. 7.23 9.87 8.65 7.74 .00 60.7 81.64 84.67 57.13 .00 MIDDLE EAST ............ 20.13 18.94 20.05 15.63 .00 46.3 47.25 60.72 52.03 .00 NORTH AFRICA ........... 40.96 34.71 43.40 43.06 .00 92.7 94.87 92.00 93.03 SUB-SAHARA AFRICA...... 16.42 15.08 14.59 17.84 .00 5.0 2.82 3.79 5.27 LATIN AMER. & CARIBBEAN 11.95 8.71 11.15 9.64 .00 82.7 66.60 77.93 63.41 .00 COMMUNIST COUNTRIES...... 72.99 83.50 86.14 74.39 .00 74.3 77.20 63.14 50.59 .00 USSR ................... .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .0 .00 .00 .00 .00 EASTERN EUROPE ......... 81.55 83.66 89.72 82.04 .00 85.5 81.96 80.59 73.51 .00 OTHER .................. 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 .00 100.0 100.00 100.00 100.00 .00 TABLE A-7.4 SHARE OF 1976 ESTIMATE DERIVED BY EXTRAPOLATION OF MONTHLY OR QUARTERLY TRADE PARTNER STATISTICS WORLD .................... 1.38 1.62 1.72 1.71 1.61 0.4 0.84 0.84 0.85 0.69 NON-COMMUNISTS COUNTRIES. 1.69 1.93 2.03 2.08 1.94 .5 1.00 1.06 1.14 .86 DEVELOPED COUNTRIES...... .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .0 .00 .00 .00 .00 EAST ASIA AND PACIFIC.. .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .0 .00 .00 .00 .00 NORTH AMERICA .......... .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .0 .00 .00 .00 WESTERN EUROPE ......... .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .0 .00 .00 .00 LESS DEVELOPED COUNTRIES. 3.10 3.40 3.70 3.75 3.51 SOUTHEAST ASIA......... .01 .01 .32 .33 .18 .1 .08 .04 .04 .05 SOUTH ASIA ............. 3.74 5.11 4.48 4.01 4.24 2.4 3.30 3.43 2.33 2.80 MIDDLE EAST ............ 8.37 7.90 8.36 6.51 7.62 5.1 5.20 6.68 5.76 5.50 NORTH AFRICA ........... .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .0 .00 .00 .00 .00 SUB-SAHARA AFRICA...... 13.12 16.39 15.76 19.31 16.22 12.5 23.02 31.06 43.40 24.56 LATIN AMER. & CARIBBEAN 41.56 30.28 38.63 33.36 35.43 .3 .30 .49 .49 .38 COMMUNIST COUNTRIES...... .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .0 .00 .00 .00 .00 USSR ................... .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .0 .00 .00 .00 .00 EASTERN EUROPE ......... .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .0 .00 .00 .00 .00 OTHER .................. .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .0 .00 .00 .00 .00 Approved For Release 2001/03/06 : CIA-RDP86B00985R000300040005-1 Approved For Release 2001/03/06 : CIA-RDP86B00985R000300040'005-1 WORLD.. .................. 1,906.4 1,854.6 1,931.4 2,397.4 8,089.8 NON-COMMUNISTS COUNTRIES. 1,594.8 1,561.3 1,639.0 1,930.3 6,725.2 DEVELOPED COUNTRIES...... 699.2 683.0 698.1 859.0 2,939.3 EAST ASIA AND PACIFIC.. 376.8 375.0 374.3 505.0 1,631.1 NORTH AMERICA .......... 70.4 72.6 77.3 60.1 280.4 WESTERN EUROPE ......... 252.1 235.4 246.5 293.8 1,027.8 LESS DEVELOPED COUNTRIES. 895.6 878.2 940.8 1,071.3 3,785.9 SOUTHEAST ASIA ......... 565.7 584.9 644.7 722.3 2,517.7 SOUTH ASIA ............. 31.1 22.2 23.0 31.2 107.6 MIDDLE EAST ............ 146.8 146.3 136.8 155.8 585.7 NORTH AFRICA ........... 39.5 31.5 31.2 42.9 145.2 SUB-SAHARA AFRICA...... 101.1 81.7 91.8 103.9 378.4 LATIN AMER. & CARIBBEAN 11.4 11.5 13.2 15.2 51.3 COMMUNIST COUNTRIES...... 311.6 293.3 292.5 467.1 1,364.6 USSR ................... 38.6 27.5 19.3 92.4 177.8 EASTERN EUROPE ......... 162.7 158.1 160.7 235.5 717.0 OTHER .................. 110.3 107.7 112.5 139.2 469.8 1,222.4 1,388.6 1,899.2 2,052.2 1,015.1 1,186.8 1,609.9 1,683.7 765.5 810.6 1,230.1 1,359.7 471.5 434.9 792.7 754.3 91.9 140.5 115.7 169.7 202.1 235.2 321.7 435.7 249.6 376.2 379.7 324.0 105.7 120.9 120.7 94.5 13.5 16.1 21.5 31.7 43.7 50.3 45.2 66.0 14.7 17.0 24.3 17.7 36.8 40.6 54.1 46.3 35.2 131.3 114.0 67.8 207.3 201.8 289.3 368.5 38.1 21.2 23.2 79.3 121.8 126.3 191.8 209.1 47.3 54.3 74.3 80.0 TABLE A-8.2 SHARE OF 1977 ESTIMATE OBTAINED FROM TRADE PARTNER STATISTICS WORLD .................... 81.30 80.11 78.22 77.62 97.14 NON-COMMUNISTS COUNTRIES. 93.10 91.79 89.68 88.32 96.56 DEVELOPED COUNTRIES...... 99.96 99.96 99.96 99.96 100.00 EAST ASIA AND PACIFIC.. 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 NORTH AMERICA .......... 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 WESTERN EUROPE ......... 99.90 99.89 99.89 99.89 100.00 LESS DEVELOPED COUNTRIES. 87.74 85.44 82.05 78.99 93.89 SOUTHEAST ASIA ......... 96.22 96.43 96.61 96.27 99.67 SOUTH ASIA ............. 74.99 64.45 64.15 67.26 95.71 MIDDLE EAST ............ 85.88 77.14 51.75 38.40 86.08 NORTH AFRICA........... 46.92 34.94 31.44 38.29 100.00 SUB-SAHARA AFRICA...... 68.68 53.59 52.11 45.96 69.35 LATIN AMER. & CARIBBEAN 36.72 37.57 43.87 38.62 58.94 COMMUNIST COUNTRIES...... 20.87 17.92 14.03 33.38 100.00 USSR_ ................. 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 EASTERN EUROPE ......... 16.24 15.86 13.52 26.98 100.00 OTHER .................. .00 .00 .00 .00 100.00 6,562.5 5,495.6 4166.0 2,,4 51 ~ 1,194.7 1,329.6 441.7 82.8 205.2 73.7 177.8 348.4 1,066.8 161.8 649.1 255.9 ------------- --------------------------------- I II III IV YEA( 84.2 82.89 82.71 82.39 98.53 94.9 93.65 93.38 92.73 98.25 100.0 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.0 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.0 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.0 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 79.2 79.97 71.93 62.21 92.75 99.9 99.92 99.90 99.86 99.97 31.3 33.95 32.27 50.56 96.65 83.4 67.09 44.67 59.12 88.39 .0 12.59 42.49 11.32 98.37 72.0 44.71 31.96 14.58 67.20 70.8 91.81 85.85 64.03 97.09 31.9 19.59 23.32 35.12 100.00 100.0 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 23.0 14.53 23.09 23.97 100.00 .0 .00 .00 .00 100.00 Approved For Release 2001/03/06 : CIA-RDP86B00985R000300040005-1 Approved For Release 2001/03/06 : CIA-RDP86B00985R000300040005-1 TABLE A-8.3 SHARE OF 1977 ESTIMATE DERIVED BY INTERPOLATION OF ANNUAL TRADE PARTNER STATISTICS WORLD .................... 16.65 17.70 18.64 18.58 0.00 14.7 16.24 15.76 15.74 0.00 NON-COMMUNISTS COUNTRIES. 4.44 5.61 6.63 6.95 .00 3.8 5.33 4.81 4.99 00 DEVELOPED .00 COUNTRIES .04 .04 .04 .04 .00 .0 .00 .00 .00 .00 EAST ASIA AND PACIFIC.. .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .0 .00 .00 .00 .00 NORTH AMERICA .......... .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .0 .00 .00 .00 .00 WESTERN EUROPE ......... .10 .11 .11 .11 .00 .0 .00 .00 .00 .00 LESS DEVELOPED COUNTRIES. 7.88 9.94 11.52 12.50 .00 15.4 16.82 20.39 25.94 .00 SOUTHEAST ASIA ......... 3.44 3.25 3.08 3.39 .00 .0 .05 .07 .09 .00 SOUTH ASIA ............. 22.29 30.48 30.72 28.05 .00 64.9 62.42 63.98 46.72 .00 MIDDLE EAST ............ 8.37 17.19 31.78 34.47 .00 8.5 24.86 38.04 28.17 .00 NORTH AFRICA ........... 53.08 65.06 68.56 61.71 .00 98.6 98.23 56.27 86.41 SUB-SAHARA AFRICA...... 8.47 16.54 15.37 16.76 .00 4.7 31.47 32.27 40.63 LATIN AMER. & CARIBBEAN 20.73 20.06 18.21 19.68 .00 27.6 8.51 13.39 24.28 .00 COMMUNIST COUNTRIES...... 79.13 82.08 85.97 66.62 .00 68.1 80.41 76.68 64.88 00 USSR ................... .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .0 .00 .00 .00 .00 EASTERN EUROPE......... 83.76 84.14 86.48 73.02 .00 77.0 85.47 76.91 76.03 .00 OTHER .................. 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 .00 100.0 100.00 100.00 100.00 .00 TABLE A-8.4 SHARE OF 1977 ESTIMATE DERIVED BY EXTRAPOLATION OF MONTHLY OR QUARTERLY TRADE PARTNER STATISTICS I II III IV YEAR I II III IV YEAR WORLD .................... 2.05 2.19 3.14 3.81 2.86 1.1 1.10 1.54 1.87 1.47 NON-COMMUNISTS COUNTRIES. 2.46 2.60 3.70 4.73 3.44 1.3 1.29 1.81 2.28 1.75 DEVELOPED COUNTRIES...... .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .0 .00 .00 .00 .00 EAST ASIA AND PACIFIC.. .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .0 .00 .00 .00 .00 NORTH AMERICA .......... .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .0 .00 .00 .00 WESTERN EUROPE ......... .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .0 .00 .00 .00 LESS DEVELOPED COUNTRIES. 4.37 4.62 6.44 8.52 6.12 5.4 4.07 7.68 11.85 7.24 SOUTHEAST ASIA ......... .34 .32 .31 .34 .33 .0 .03 .03 .04 .03 SOUTH ASIA ............. 2.72 5.07 5.13 4.69 4.29 3.8 3.63 3.75 2.72 3.35 MIDDLE EAST ............ 5.75 5.67 16.47 27.12 13.92 8.2 8.04 17.29 12.70 11.60 NORTH AFRICA ........... .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 1.4 1.77 1.23 2.26 1.63 SUB-SAHARA AFRICA...... 22.85 29.86 32.51 37.28 30.68 23.2 23.83 35.77 44.80 32.80 LATIN AMER. & CARIBBEAN 42.55 42.36 37.92 41.71 41.06 1.7 .50 .76 11.70 2.88 COMMUNIST COUNTRIES...... .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .0 .00 .00 .00 .00 USSR ................... .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .0 .00 .00 .00 .00 EASTERN EUROPE ......... .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .0 .00 .00 .00 .00 OTHER .................. .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .0 .00 .00 .00 .00 Approved For Release 2001/03/06 : CIA-RDP86B00985R00030004,0005-1 Approv@d For Release 2001/03/06 : CIA-RDP86B00985R000300040005-1 WORLD .................... 2,171.3 2,274.4 2,527.3 3,026.1 9,999.1 1,861.7 2,322.9 2,525.6 3,545.4 10,255.6 NON-COMMUNISTS COUNTRIES. 1,788.7 1,950.9 2,136.6 2,554.4 8,430.5 1,567.5 2,015.0 2,172.8 2,948.2 8,703.4 DEVELOPED COUNTRIES ...... 828.9 912.1 921.1 1,115.1 3,777.1 1,331.1 1.677.7 1,818.7 2,440.5 7,26 EAST ASIA AND PACIFIC.. 451.5 494.5 522.9 639.4 2,108.3 657.8 902.7 895.6 1,165.7 3,62 NORTH AMERICA .......... 94.5 112.3 102.1 97.6 406.5 175.9 243.6 380.3 506.9 1,306.7 WESTERN EUROPE ......... 282.9 305.3 296.1 378.1 1,262.4 497.4 531.4 542.8 767.9 2,339.5 LESS DEVELOPED COUNTRIES. 959.8 1,038.8 1,215.5 1,439.3 4,653.5 236.4 337.3 354.1 507.7 1,435.3 SOUTHEAST ASIA ......... 657.1 723.7 841.3 988.5 3,210.6 58.0 102.0 73.1 146.0 379.2 SOUTH ASIA ............. 25.7 25.6 38.0 52.0 141.3 14.9 22.3 28.2 30.1 95.5 MIDDLE EAST ............ 124.9 128.5 152.0 175.1 580.4 52.1 53.3 51.4 68.6 225.2 NORTH AFRICA ........... 37.5 37.7 42.0 50.0 167.3 15.8 19.4 22.7 31.1 89.1 SUB-SAHARA AFRICA...... 98.4 101.4 120.7 150.4 471.0 42.0 52.6 55.3 82.6 232.4 LATIN AMER. & CARIBBEAN 16.2 21.9 21.5 23.3 83.0 53.5 87.7 123.4 149.3 413.9 COMMUNIST COUNTRIES...... 382.6 323.5 390.7 471.7 1,568.6 294.2 307.9 352.8 597.2 1,552.2 USSR ................... 67.8 31.7 64.3 93.5 257.3 42.2 31.0 51.0 118.0 242.2 EASTERN EUROPE ......... 197.7 196.3 220.2 251.1 865.5 173.4 180.0 195.5 330.7 879.6 OTHER .................. 117.1 95.5 106.2 127.0 445.8 78.6 97.0 106.3 148.5 430.4 IMPORTS ------------------------------------------- I II III IV YEAR WORLD .................... 79.66 79.24 75.82 73.94 83.59 83.2 83.25 82.48 79.75 87.81 NON-COMMUNISTS COUNTRIES. 86.06 86.26 83.30 80.98 85.90 92.7 92.86 92.03 88.40 91.16 DEVELOPED COUNTRIES ...... 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.0 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 EAST ASIA AND PACIFIC.. 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.0 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 NORTH AMERICA.......... 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.0 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 WESTERN EUROPE ......... 99.99 99.99 99.99 99.99 99.99 100.0 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 LESS DEVELOPED COUNTRIES. 74.02 74.19 70.64 66.25 74.46 51.5 57.34 51.06 32.66 46.42 SOUTHEAST ASIA ......... 95.13 95.27 94.87 90.71 97.34 99.8 99.88 97.02 90.40 95.68 SOUTH ASIA ............. 95.46 29.88 47.55 22.03 36.40 50.7 47.81 46.87 30.41 42.50 MIDDLE EAST ............ 40.70 39.54 15.35 11.94 28.58 52.3 42.72 13.09 9.45 28.05 NORTH AFRICA........... 8.04 4.36 4.67 3.83 5.10 .8 .00 6.00 4.48 3.22 SUB-SAHARA AFRICA...... 9.63 8.30 6.01 9.69 13.75 2.6 4.24 .19 6.56 5.75 LATIN AMER. & CARIBBEAN 47.86 58.23 46.26 34.49 59.24 51.8 63.66 71.71 7.63 44.32 COMMUNIST COUNTRIES...... 49.76 36.91 34.93 35.77 71.17 32.5 20.36 23.67 37.01 69.03 USSR... ................ 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.0 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 EASTERN EUROPE ......... 36.71 31.94 32.77 29.96 83.50 30.7 17.61 16.63 31.15 81.34 OTHER .................. 42.70 26.16 .00 .00 30.60 .0 .00 .00 .00 26.46 Approved For Release 2001/03/06 : CIA-RDP86B00985R000300040005-1 Approved For Release 2001/03/06 : CIA-RDP86B00985R000300040005-1 WORLD .................... 6.41 6.58 6.96 6.88 0.00 6.0 5.93 6.01 5.98 0.00 NON-COMMUNISTS COUNTRIES. 1.79 1.76 2.25 2.23 .00 .0 .05 .05 .05 .00 DEVELOPED COUNTRIES...... .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .0 .00 .00 .00 .00 EAST ASIA AND PACIFIC.. .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .0 .00 .00 .00 .00 NORTH AMERICA.......... .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .0 .00 .00 .00 .00 WESTERN EUROPE......... .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .0 .00 .00 .00 .00 LESS DEVELOPED COUNTRIES. 3.33 3.31 3.96 3.96 .00 .3 .28 .33 .32 .00 SOUTHEAST ASIA ......... 3.76 3.68 3.51 3.53 .00 .0 .00 .00 .00 .00 SOUTH ASIA ............. .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .0 .00 .00 .00 .00 MIDDLE EAST ............ 3.43 3.58 3.35 3.44 .00 .0 .00 .00 .00 .00 NORTH AFRICA ........... .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .0 .00 .00 .00 .00 SUB-SAHARA AFRICA...... .66 .69 8.98 8.53 .00 1.9 1.83 2.09 1.96 LATIN AMER. & CARIBBEAN 14.01 11.17 12.60 13.75 COMMUNIST COUNTRIES...... 28.03 35.62 32.67 32.05 .00 37.7 44.45 42.70 35.25 .00 USSR.. ............ .... .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .0 .00 .00 .00 .00 EASTERN EUROPE ......... 47.60 51.52 50.86 52.83 .00 51.9 61.83 62.64 51.74 .00 OTHER .................. 11.22 14.77 14.72 14.57 .00 26.4 26.41 26.52 26.53 .00 WORLD .................... 13.93 14.19 17.22 19.19 16.41 10.8 10.82 11.51 14.27 12. 19 NON-COMMUNISTS COUNTRIES. 12.15 11.98 14.45 16.79 14.10 7.3 7.09 7.92 11.54 8.84 DEVELOPED COUNTRIES...... .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .0 .00 .00 .00 .00 EAST ASIA AND PACIFIC.. .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .0 .00 .00 .00 .00 NORTH AMERICA .......... .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .0 .00 .00 .00 .00 WESTERN EUROPE ......... .01 .01 .01 .01 .01 .0 .00 .00 .00 LESS DEVELOPED COUNTRIES. 22.65 22.50 25.39 29.79 25.54 SOUTHEAST ASIA ......... 1.10 1.05 1.62 5.76 2.66 .2 .12 2.98 9.60 4.3 SOUTH ASIA ............. 44.54 70.12 52.45 77.97 63.61 49.3 52.19 53.13 69.59 57.50 MIDDLE EAST ............ 55.88 56.88 81.30 84.62 71.44 47.7 57.28 86.91 90.55 72.00 NORTH AFRICA ........... 91.96 95.64 95.33 96.17 94.85 99.2 100.00 94.00 95.52 96.66 SUB-SAHARA AFRICA..... 89.71 91.01 85.01 81.78 86.25 95.5 93.93 97.72 91.48 94.25 LATIN AMER. & CARIBBEAN 38.13 30.61 41.15 51.76 40.76 48.2 36.34 28.29 92.37 55.71 COMMUNIST COUNTRIES...... 22.21 27.48 32.40 32.17 28.83 29.9 35.19 33.63 27.74 30.96 USSR ................... .00 .00 .00 .00 -00 .0 .00 .00 .00 .00 EASTERN EUROPE ......... 15.69 16.54 16.37 17.22 16.50 17.3 20.56 20.73 17.11 18.66 OTHER .................. 46.08 59.07 85.28 85.43 69.41 73.6 73.59 73.48 73.47 73.52 Approved For Release 2001/03/06 : CIA-RDP86B00985R000300040005-1 Approved For Release 2001/03/06 : CIA-RDP86B00985R000300040005-1 WORLD.. .................. 2,819.7 3.481.6 NON-COMMUNISTS COUNTRIES. 2,455.0 3,001.0 DEVELOPED COUNTRIES ...... 1,163.1 2,453.8 EAST ASIA AND PACIFIC.. 598.7 1,155.3 NORTH AMERICA .......... 136.0 523.3 WESTERN EUROPE ......... 428.4 775.2 LESS DEVELOPED COUNTRIES. 1,291.9 547.2 SOUTHEAST ASIA ......... 873.3 188.9 SOUTH ASIA ............. 46.2 33.9 MIDDLE EAST ............ 164.1 67.5 NORTH AFRICA ........... 45.1 29.2 SUB-SAHARA AFRICA...... 141.1 81. 1 LATIN AMER. & CARIBBEAN 22.2 146.6 COMMUNIST COUNTRIES...... 364.7 480.7 USSR ................... 43.0 69.6 EASTERN EUROPE ......... 202.6 265.2 OTHER .................. 119.1 145.9 IMPORTS -------------------------------------------- I II III IV YEAR WORLD .................... 70.09 77.8 NON-COMMUNISTS COUNTRIES. 77.22 86.6 DEVELOPED COUNTRIES...... 99.88 100.0 EAST ASIA AND PACIFIC.. 100.00 100.0 NORTH AMERICA .......... 100.00 100.0 WESTERN EUROPE ......... 99.68 100.0 LESS DEVELOPED COUNTRIES. 56.82 26.5 SOUTHEAST ASIA ......... 83.79 73.2 SOUTH ASIA ............. 3.51 17.2 MIDDLE EAST ............ .08 1.7 NORTH AFRICA ........... .00 .0 SUB-SAHARA AFRICA...... .00 .0 LATIN AMER. & CARIBBEAN 2.42 .0 COMMUNIST COUNTRIES...... 22.13 23.1 USSR ................... 100.00 100.0 EASTERN EUROPE ......... 18.62 15.6 OTHER .................. .00 .0 Approved For Release 2001/03/06 : CIA-RDP86B00985R000300040005-1 Approved For Release 2001/03/06 : CIA-RDP86B00985R000300040005-1 WORLD .................... 0.00 0.0 NON-COMMUNISTS COUNTRIES. .00 .0 DEVELOPED COUNTRIES...... .00 .0 EAST ASIA AND PACIFIC.. .00 .0 NORTH AMERICA.......... .00 .0 WESTERN EUROPE......... .00 .0 LESS DEVELOPED COUNTRIES. .00 .0 SOUTHEAST ASIA ......... .00 .0 SOUTH ASIA ............. .00 .0 MIDDLE EAST............ .00 .0 NORTH AFRICA ........... .00 .0 SUB-SAHARA AFRICA...... .00 .0 LATIN AMER. & CARIBBEAN .00 .0 COMMUNIST COUNTRIES...... .00 .0 USSR ................... .00 .0 EASTERN EUROPE ......... .00 .0 OTHER .................. .00 .0 WORLD.. ..... ............ 29.91 22.2 NON-COMMUNISTS COUNTRIES. 22.78 13.4 DEVELOPED COUNTRIES...... .12 .0 EAST ASIA AND PACIFIC.. .00 .0 NORTH AMERICA .......... .00 .0 WESTERN EUROPE ......... .32 .0 LESS DEVELOPED COUNTRIES. 43.18 73.5 SOUTHEAST ASIA......... 16.21 26.8 SOUTH ASIA ............. 96.49 82.8 MIDDLE EAST ............ 99.92 98.3 NORTH AFRICA ........... 100.00 100.0 SUB-SAHARA AFRICA ...... 100.00 100.0 LATIN AMER. & CARIBBEAN 97.58 100.0 COMMUNIST COUNTRIES...... 77.87 76.9 USSR ................... .00 .0 EASTERN EUROPE ......... 81.38 84.4 OTHER .................. 100.00 100.0 Approved For Release 2001/03/06 : CIA-RDP86B00985R000300040005-1 Approved ForlieIease 2001/03/06 : CIA-RDP86 0985R000300040005-1 CIA Estimate (Million US $) Exchange Rate' (Yuan per US $) CIA Estimate (Million Yuan Chinese Reported Exports Percentage (Million Yuan) Difference 4 1,906 1.9039 3.629 1,855 1.8743 3.477 First-half total 3,761 7,106 2,397 4,298 8,089, 14,969 13,967 ' 1978 1 2,171 1.6786 3,644 II 2,274 1.7115 3,892 III 2,527 1.6909 4,273 IV 3.026 1.6397 4,962 16,771 16,760' I 2,820 1.5724 4,434 II 3,190 1.5827 5,049 First-half total 6,010 9,483 9,500 Yearly total (planned) 19,200 Exchange rates are the average midmonth buy rates from Economic Reporter, Hong Kong. 2 CIA estimate divided by the reported Chinese data minus one. A negative indicates the CIA estimate is below the Chinese statistics. New China News Agency, 27 June 1979. Exports increased 20 percent in 1978. The 1977 data were obtained by working back from 1978 data. This is probably on a Ren Min Bi (RMB) basis. FBIS, 16 July 1979, L6. Exports increased 26.8 percent in the first half of 1979 over the first half of 1978. The 1978 data were obtained by working back from 1979 data. This is probably on a RMB basis. New China News Agency, 27 June 1979. 6 Preliminary. Based on only 40 percent of trade reported. FBIS, 16 July 1979, L6. 6 FBIS, 2 July 1979, L23. The 1979 Plan. The plan is probably $12.0 billion converted to 19.2 billion yuan at the midyear exchange rate of 1.6. Approved For Release 2001/03/06 : CIA-RDP86B00985R000300040005-1 Approved For Release 2001/03/06 : CIA-RDP86BOO985MOO300040005-1 Chinese Imports,c.i.f. CIA Estimates Exchange Rate' CIA Estimate Chinese Reported Imports (Million US $) (Yuan per US $) (Million Yuan) (Million Yuan) 1977 1 11 First-half total III IV Yearly total 1978 1 11 First-half total IV Yearly total II First-half total 1,312 1.9039 2,498 _ 1,498 1.9843 2,808 2,810 5,306 2,046 1.8464 3,778 2,214 1.7931 3,970 7,069 13,054 2,021 1.6786 3,392 2,513 1.7115 4,301 4,534 7,693 7,380 4,621 3,826 1.6397 6,273 11,092 18,587 18,740 3,767 1.5724 5,923 3,767 6 1.5827 5,962, 7,534 6 11,885 11,800' Exchange rates are the average midmonth buy rates from Economic Reporter, Hong Kong. 2 CIA estimate divided by the reported Chinese data minus one. A negative indicates the CIA estimate is below the Chinese statistics. ' New China News Agency, 27 June 1979. Imports increased 41.1 percent in 1978. The 1977 data were obtained by working back from 1978 data. This is probably on a Ren Min Bi (RMB) basis. FBIS, 16 July 1979, L6. Imports increased 57.9 percent in the first half of 1979 over the first half of 1978. The 1978 data were obtained by working back from 1979 data. This is probably on a RMB basis. ' New China News Agency, 27 June 1979. 6 Preliminary. Based on only 45 percent of trade reported. FBIS, 16 July 1979, L6. 8 FBIS, 2 July 1979, L23. The 1979 Plan. The plan is probably $15.5 billion converted to 24.8 billion yuan at the midyear exchange rate of 1.6. Percentage Difference Approved For Release 2001/03/06 : CIA-RDP86B00985R000300040005-1 Approved Fori&Olease 2001/03/06 : CIA-RDP86a60985R000300040005-1 Appendix B Chinese Imports, c.i.f.' Million US $ 1970 535.5 638.1 536.5 499.7 2,209.8 1971 _ _ 490.8 566.7 616.2 634.7 2,308.3 1972 608.7 647.8 599.0 937.1 2,792.0 1973 962.8 1,139.6 1,339.8 1,568.3 5,010.4 1974 1,844.2 ____ 2,033.2 1,804.3 7,355.0 1975 1,918.9 1,891.5 7,390.9 1,256.9 999.1 6,027.8 1977 1,311.6 1,497.9 2,045.5 ____2,214.1__ 7,069.2 1978 2,020.6 2,513.0 2,732.6 3,826.1 11,092.3 1979 3,766.6 ' CIA estimate. Approved For Release 2001/03/06 : CIA-RDP86B00985R000300040005-1