DISTRIBUTION FOR CHINA: AGRICULTURE IN 1978, ER 79-10206, APRIL 1979

• Document Type: CREST
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• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP86B00985R000300040018-7
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• Original Classification: K
• Document Page Count: 28
• Document Creation Date: December 9, 2016
• Document Release Date: February 1, 2001
• Sequence Number: 18
• Publication Date: April 24, 1979
• Content Type: LIST

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,F.NTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCI'
WASHINGTON, D.C. 20505
I enclose a recent report on China's agriculture
in 1978 and prospects for 1979. I hope you find it
useful and will appreciate receiving any comments on
it that you might have.
 Approved For Release 200110 6 . 8 00300040018-7
Assessment
Center
China: Agriculture in 1978
Approved For Release 2001103106: CIA-RDP86B00985R000300040018-7 ER 79-10206
April 1979
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++1 tl 3 Assessment
Center
China: Agriculture in 1978
A Research Paper
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Approved For Release 2001103106: CIA-RDP86B00985R000300040018-7 ER 79-10206
April 1979
 Approved For Release 2001103106: CIA-RDP86B00985R000300040018-7
China's total grain harvest reached 295 million tons in
1978, 10 million tons more than the stagnant 1975-77
level. Per capita grain production remained below 300
kilograms. Output increased last year despite indiffer-
ent weather because of greater use of modern inputs
and improved organization. Output of cotton and other
crops also increased, but adverse weather generally
kept production below planned levels,
Summer-harvested grains, including winter wheat and
early rice, accounted for all of the 10-million-ton
increase in the harvest. The fall harvest, which
provides about 65 percent of total output, was
mediocre.
Grain imports rose to 9.4 million tons last year. They
are expected to average 10-13 million tons annually
through 1985, double the average level of 1971-77.
As part of the general post-Mao reformulation of
economic policy, the Chinese have adopted some new
policies toward agriculture-including lower taxes and
higher procurement prices-aimed at improving peas-
ant incentives for production. The regime has taken a
pragmatic attitude toward private plots, petty food-
processing activities, and village markets. The relax-
ation has proceeded to the point of permitting sales of
above-quota grain, meats, and oils in the village
markets. The central authorities also have begun to
promote greater specialization in farm production;
plans are afoot to build 12 major surplus grain supply
bases while allowing suburban and other communes to
grow a greater variety of more profitable crops such as
fruits and vegetables. The Chinese are also promoting
programs, such as land reclamation and improving
agricultural science, that will yield a longer term
payoff.
Growing conditions for 1979 have started with a
normal balance of pluses and minuses. Given the
expected increases in inputs of fertilizer and machinery
and the perceptible upgrading of water-control sys-
tems, a marked increase in agricultural output is in
prospect for 1979, with weather the key short-run
determinant.
 Approved For Release 2001103106: CIA-RDP86B00985Rb00300040018-7
Summary
Grain Production: Up, But Not Spectacular
A Good Early Harvest
Late Harvest: Down Slightly
Coarse Grains: Small Increase
Industrial Crops
Production Outlook for 1979: Generally Bullish
Agricultural Trade: Export Balance
Imports: Grain and Cotton
Exports: High Unit Value
New Policy Directions: Pragmatism
A. China: 1978 Grain Production, by Province I'l
B. China: Selected Official Statements on Agricultural Policy, 1978-79 13
C. China: Agricultural Indicators 15
1. Grain Production 1
2. Early Grain Harvest 1
3. Late Harvest 2
Estimated Cotton Production 3
Commodity Composition of Agricultural Trade and Agricultural 4
Trade Balance
1. 1978 Grain Harvest
2. Imports of Grain, by Source
3. 12 Major Grain Bases
 Yrv
Xiriang
2 7
Heinen
Oea7
 v
Approved For Release 2001103106: CIA-RDP86B00985R000300040018-7
The improved grain harvest in 1978 in the People's
Republic of China was not enough to make up for the
mediocre performances of 1976 and 1977 (see table 1).
Although total grain output rose by slightly over 3
percent to 295 million metric tons, it was below plan.
To reach the 1985 target of 400 million tons, the
Chinese now need to increase output by 4.5 percent a
year, which would mean an additional 15 million tons a
year, compared with 5 million tons a year achieved
since 1957.' The weather produced a spotty pattern of
output; a few provinces reported large increases while a
number of others had small increases or even declines.
Four provinces-Jiangsu, Heilongjiang, Zhejiang, and
Sichuan-accounted for all of the total national
increase. Increases in 17 other provinces, including a
number that set new provincial records, were enough to
offset declines in eight provinces (see appendix A and
figure 1).
The increase in aggregate grain production in 1978,
which followed two years of practically zero growth,
was insufficient to bring production up to the long-
term trend. Poor weather in the second half affected
the fall rice harvest, thus reducing the gains obtained
from the large increases in inputs to the agricultural
sector. With "average weather," grain production in
1978 might have been 5-10 million tons higher.'
For the past six years the per capita output of grain has
hovered at the level of the mid-1950s, that is, just
under 300 kg. Sizable production increases will be
needed for the next few years to rebuild reserves, to
reduce the procurement burden on peasants and give
them the means and incentives for further production
increases, and to supply the demands of both urban
and rural consumers for higher living standards,
including more meat.
I For a complete series of grain and cotton production, 1949-78, see
appendix C.
' The average increase from 1952 to 1975, calculated from a
logarithmic regression, was 2,2 percent; continuation of this rate
after 1975 would have meant production of 304 million tons in 1978.
Total
(Million Metric Tons)
Per Capita'
(Kilograms)
1952
161
280
1957
191
295
1965
194
254
1970
243
284
1971
246
281
1972
240
268
1973
266
291
1974
275
295
1975
284
298
1976
285
293
1977
286
288
1978
295
291
1976
1977
1978
Total
100
96
106
Winter wheat'
45
40
45
Early rice
50
50
55
Spring wheat
5
6
6
A Good Early Harvest
The good early harvest accounted for all of last year's
increase in grain output. The early harvest, which
includes wheat and early rice, makes up about 35
percent of the annual total. Table 2 gives estimates for
production levels of early crops.
 Winter wheat production increased by 5 million tons in
1978, recovering to the record 1976 level of 45 million
tons. The crop benefited from good moisture conditions
in the fall of 1977; drought in the spring ended in early
June before doing extensive damage. Henan and
Shandong, the two provinces with the largest winter
wheat hectarage, both showed substantial increases.
Jiangsu and Anhui---also important producers-
showed increases, while output in Shaanxi declined for
the second year in a row. Spring wheat production is
also estimated to have increased slightly because of
good growing conditions in Northeast China.
Early rice output was up by 5 million tons over the
50-million-ton level of 1976 and 1977. The largest
reported increases among major producing areas were
in the coastal provinces of Fujian and Zhejiang, which
went on to post large increases in annual grain output,
and in Hunan and Jiangsu south of the Chang Jiang
River.
Late Harvest: Down Slightly
The late harvest, which provides about 65 percent of
total grain output, declined slightly from the 1977
level. The late harvest includes intermediate and late
rice, miscellaneous grains, and soybeans (see table 3).
Output of fall-harvested rice failed to improve over
1977 despite increased planting of new hybrid
varieties. We estimate that production of intermediate
rice increased slightly and that production of late rice
declined moderately because of poor weather. Sichuan,
the most important producer of intermediate rice, had
an excellent harvest for the second year in a row.
Output in Yunnan also increased sharply, while
Guizhou's output fell.
1976
1977
1978
Total
185
190
189
Miscellaneous grains'
110
110
113
Intermediate rice
40
41
41
Late rice
35
39
35
' Includes soybeans; some miscellaneous grain crops are harvested
throughout the year.
Late rice transplanting was delayed in Guangdong and
Guangxi. Crops in these two provinces were also
damaged by tropical storms and unseasonable cold
spells in July, August, and October, and total grain
output declined from the previous year. An area of
severe drought in the middle and lower Chang Jiang
Basin reduced yields somewhat, although the drought
was ameliorated in many areas by extensive irrigation.
Output in Anhui declined substantially, and output of
late rice crops in Hunan and Hubei at best increased
only slightly. Output in Jiangxi also declined, while
Zhejiang and Fujian had good harvests.
The Chinese extended the area planted to hybrid rice
in 1978 to over 4.7 million hectares. Nearly one-third
of this was in Hunan Province, where it accounted for
30 percent of the area sown to rice. Jiangsu and
Zhejiang also planted large areas in hybrid rice. This
new type of rice, which is not planted outside China,
has been extended extremely rapidly, and the Chinese
report considerable success in using it to increase rice
yields.'
Coarse Grains: Small Increase
Output of miscellaneous grains (including soybeans)
increased slightly in 1978. Miscellaneous grains ac-
count for most of the grain output in Heilongjiang and
Jilin, where grain output increased by 3 million tons
and 2.25 million tons, respectively. Substantial in-
creases in the Northeast were largely offset, however,
by indifferent performances in North China. Above
normal precipitation benefited crops in the Northeast.
The three Northeast provinces, China's major soybean
area, all increased their production of soybeans. In
Hcilongjiang the increase amounted to 500,000 tons,
and in Jilin output was up by 30 percent.
In North China, there was a spring drought during the
period when coarse grain crops were planted. I leavy
rains during late June and early July then caused
additional damage to some of these crops, although
conditions were not as severe as in 1977. These
problems were most pronounced in the Huang Ho
(Yellow) River drainage basin. Drought later in the
year also trimmed coarse grain crops in Henan and
Anhui.
The male-sterile hybrid rice requires hand-pollination in seed fields,
which would be prohibitively expensive in the West.
 Approved For Release 2001103106: CIA-RDP86B00985R600300040018-7
Year
Total
1957
1.6
1970
2.0
1973
2.6-
1974
2.5
1975
2.4
1976
2.3
1977
2.05
1978
2.15
Industrial Crops
Output of industrial crops rose, but most of the
increases were below planned levels. Output of cotton,
oil-bearing crops, sugar (cane and beet), jute, hemp,
silk cocoons, tobacco, and tea all increased. Cotton
output increased by about 100,000 tons, edible oil by
15 percent, and sugar by 10 percent.
Demand for industrial crops no doubt will increase
rapidly as incomes and living standards improve.
Consumption of edible oils and sugar is now extremely
low, with rations of each averaging less than 250 grams
per person per month. Production has been held down
by the strong emphasis on grain, and imports of
soybean oil and sugar have been needed to meet basic
needs. Future increases can be expected from greater
crop specialization and larger hectarage near cities for
industrial crops.
Prospects for this year's winter grain harvest are
generally good. Planting in the North China Plain
proceeded normally, and growing conditions in the
Plain have been adequate. In the middle and lower
Chiang Jiang Valley, however, drought has continued
to plague agricultural producers. In Anhui, for exam-
ple, lack of water has caused 2.1 million hectares to be
planted to winter wheat, which means less area
available for higher yielding rice.
We estimate cotton production last year at 2.2 million
tons (see table 4). Jiangsu, Shanghai, and Zhejiang
increased their cotton output in 1978 while Hubei,
Hunan, and probably Henan registered declines.
Production has never regained the record 1973 level of
2.6 million tons. Large increases in synthetic fiber
production and high levels of cotton imports have
helped China's textile industry meet domestic demand
and export requirements; at the same time, the
pressure to increase grain and other food production
has resulted in a declining priority for cotton inputs.
The combination of a growing population and reduced
cotton production means that cotton cloth remains
tightly rationed.
Output of oilseeds increased somewhat in 1978. The
area devoted to rapeseed production was expanded
considerably, and output reached record levels. Pro-
duction of soybeans, some of which are used for oil,
also increased. Output of the other major oilseeds-
peanuts, sesame, and cottonseed-increased only mar-
ginally at best. The Chinese use less than 6 percent of
cultivated farmland for the production of oilseeds.
The size of the total grain harvest for 1979, of course,
will depend on the weather. Several factors, however,
should help alleviate losses from severe weather
conditions and provide substantial increases in output
under normal weather conditions. The agricultural
sector, for example, should continue to benefit from
increased supplies of modern inputs. Production and
imports of fertilizer were at record levels last year, and
the Chinese are continuing to extend the use of
improved seed varieties and to strengthen and extend
their water control system. Improved grain rotation
patterns and an increased area devoted to corn should
also create better prospects for total grain output.
Finally, greater emphasis on specialization will aid the
production of industrial crops.
 China: Commodity Composition of
Agricultural Trade and
Agricultural Trade Balance
1973
1974
Imports, c.i.f.
Total
5,225
7,420
7,395
6,010
7,100
10,600
Agricultural
1,700
2,300
1,315
950
1,975
2,700
Of which:
Grain
840
1,180
675
325
745
1,120
Sugar
135
_ 175
180
200
320
NA
Oilseeds
65
160
15
5
115
30
450
520
260
190
350
670
Exports, f.o.b.
Total
5,075 _
6,660
7,180
7,265
7,955
10,200
Agricultural
2,175
2,585
2,855
2,670
2,840
3,265
Of which:
Live animals
135
195
215
230
237
240
Meat and fish
335
335
415
430 413
NA
Grain
445
715
720
450..-_ 455
NA
Fruits and vegetables
245
315
360 _
385
490
NA
Tea and spices
_ NA
100
100
140
150
NA
Oilseeds
110
135
140
85
90
N?
Natural textile fibers
330
190
250
285
290
NA
Crude animal materials
170
185
230
260
330
NA
Trade Balance
Total
-150
-760
-215
1,255
855
-400
Agricultural
475
285
1,540
1,720
865
565
' Preliminary statistics for 1978 are based on official trade statistics
and estimated tonnages of imported commodities.
During 1978, China's agricultural imports jumped by
37 percent over 1977 to $2.7 billion, but fell as a share
of total Chinese imports from 28 percent to 25 percent.
Agricultural imports compete for foreign exchange
with the machinery and technology imports needed for
the big post-Mao modernization programs. They
fluctuate in accordance with the domestic harvest,
international prices, policy decisions, and the availabil-
ity of foreign exchange (see table 5). Agricultural
exports increased by about 15 percent, to $3.3 billion in
1978, but other exports increased even faster.
The agricultural trade balance remained in surplus in
1978, although falling to the lowest level since 1974.
The favorable trade balance .has been maintained in
part because many of China's agricultural exports are
processed, while most agricultural imports are in raw
form.
Imports: Grain and Cotton
Much of the increase in agricultural imports was the
result of a decision-apparently made in early or mid-
1978-to make a commitment for annual grain
imports of 10-13 million tons. Imports of this magni-
tude enable Beijing to supply the grain needs of the
urban centers in the North China Plain and the
Northeast, while agricultural taxes and grain procure-
ment quotas are being held at their 1971-75 level. The
government will feel considerable domestic pressure to
continue this policy until domestic grain yields are
raised sufficiently to provide a perceptible boost in
grain availability in both urban and rural areas.
 Approved For Release 2001103106: CIA-RDP86B00985R000300040018-7
China imported a record 9.4 million tons of grain in
197$, and so far has purchased about 10 million tons
for 1979 delivery. Additional purchases will probably
be made, bringing total 1979 imports up to 12-13
million tons (see figure 2). The record grain imports of
1978 consisted of 8.1 million tons of wheat and 1.3
million tons of corn.
The return of the United States as a major source of
grain highlighted the Chinese grain trade in 1978. The
first purchase of US grain since 1974 occurred in April
as Canadian transportation problems and Australian
overselling forced the Chinese to turn to the United
States to meet their plans for expanded grain imports.
The Chinese have said they will continue to import
5-6 million tons of US grain annually over the next few
years; purchases for 1979 delivery already exceed 4
million tons.
Multiyear agreements are being used by the Chinese to
assure access to the amounts of grain they will need. A
multiyear agreement was signed with Argentina in
1978 for 800,000 to I million tons of grain annually for
the period of 1979-81. Australia reached a multiyear
agreement with China that calls for total imports of 7.5
million tons of grain over a three-year period through
1981. Canada and China have reached a three-year
agreement that calls for annual imports of 2.8-3.5
million tons of grain. These agreements guarantee
supply of about half of China's demand for imported
grain through 1981.
Large cotton imports-which reached a record
570,000 tons-were another major factor in last year's
increase in agricultural imports (see table 6). The poor
1977 cotton harvest and increased textile production
spurred demand. The relatively small 1978 harvest and
a continuing expansion of the textile industry mean
cotton imports will probably remain near present levels
through 1979.
Imports of other agricultural products in short supply
have also been stepped up. These imports are in
keeping with the new policies aimed at raising living
standards. Sugar imports may have reached the 1977
record of 1.7 million tons. Although soybean oil
imports fell to about 130,000 tons, they were still well
above the pre-1977 levels. Increases in domestic output
of sugar and edible oil-together with tight ration-
ing-have helped to stabilize the demand for imports
of sugar and soybean oil; imports of these commodities
are likely to remain at similar levels during 1979 unless
world prices increase substantially. In 1979, soybean
imports-which have fluctuated widely during the
1970s-will, despite a good soybean harvest, probably
exceed the 110,000 tons imported in 1978. These
imports will allow the Chinese to export more of their
premium-priced Northeast soybeans than would other-
wise be possible.
Imports of chemical fertilizers are an important part of
China's effort to raise crop yields. During 1978,
fertilizer imports jumped from the 7.5 million tons of
1977 to about 10 million tons (standard weight).
Fertilizer imports are likely to remain at high levels
through the 1980s despite the sharp increases in
domestic capacity from imported plants. In the future,
China will probably import more potassium and
phosphate fertilizers, and nitrogen fertilizer imports
will probably level off or decline. Imports of other
agricultural chemicals and insecticides will also grow.
At least in the early stages, China will have to depend
on outside help in its efforts to set up mechanized
farms for swine and poultry. Recently, Beijing spent
$5 million for a complete automated poultry farm, the
technology to run it, fertile eggs, and basic feedstuffs
from Australia. Earlier, similar equipment imported
from the United States went into production. China
also purchased 1,500 bead of breeding stock to help
upgrade the swine population. Imports of other types of
farm machinery will also be important in the construc-
tion of modern farming bases, such as the Friendship
Farm in Heilongjiang, which uses equipment imported
from the United States.
Exports: High Unit Value
Agricultural exports remain an important source of
foreign exchange, although they have fallen in recent
years as a share of total exports. The Chinese continue
to export a small portion of their huge rice crop and a
wide variety of other agricultural products such as
fruits and vegetables, raw silk, tea and spices, seafood,
livestock, and livestock products. Most of these prod-
ucts are shipped to nearby Asian countries-one-third
goes to Hong Kong.
 Alftk~
Approved For Release 2001103106: CIA-RDP86B00985R000300040018-7
China: Imports of Grain by Source
Million Metric Tons
1966-70
Annual
Average
 Approved For Release 2001103106: CIA-RDP86B00985R00300040018-7
China: Trade in
Agricultural Commodities
Cotton
122
237
410
380
164
130
200
570
Soybeans
_
0
2
255
619
36 _
25
362
_110
Soybean OR
0
10
58
0
11
10
166
130
Sugar
464
749
563
411
313
635
1,700
NA
Exports
Rice
924
899
2,142
Soybeans
460
370
310
Exports of rice rose to 1 million tons in 1978.
Depressed world rice prices and the poor late rice
harvest suggest that Chinese rice exports in 1979 are
unlikely to exceed the 1978 level.
Soybean exports fell to 100,000 tons in 1978. The
majority of the exports occurred in the last quarter of
1978 following a good soybean harvest in the main
exporting region of Heilongjiang. Early indications are
that soybean exports in 1979 will recover from the
depressed levels of 1976-78 and may even return to the
levels of the early 1970s.
We expect agricultural exports will continue to expand
at rates well below the total export growth rate. The
growth of agricultural exports will be hindered by
limited markets and increasing domestic demand.
The Chinese tested and discussed a number of new
agricultural policies throughout 1978. The current
10-year plan calls for production of 400 million tons of
grain by 1985 and an annual increase of 4 to 5 percent
in total agricultural production. These goals, at the
outer edge of possible achievement, can be met only
through combination of high priority for agriculture, a
concerted effort to increase inputs (both from within
and outside the agricultural sector), more flexible
production policies and incentives, and favorable
growing conditions. To date, the new Chinese leader-
ship has adopted policies aimed at increasing state
investment in agriculture, improving peasant in-
centives, and increasing specialization in production.
(See appendix B for a list of recent official policy
statements.)
More specifically, the Chinese are showing increased
flexibility in adapting policies to suit local conditions
and are experimenting with new approaches, such as
the East European-style Kombinats and American-
style mechanized poultry farms.
General efforts to promote technical modernization
and the increased use of modern inputs are to be
accelerated. The state intends to construct 10 more
large chemical fertilizer plants and has called on each
province to construct one of its own as well; we expect
only part of this new capacity to be commissioned by
1985. Emphasis on the consolidation and extension of
water-control measures and the introduction of new
seeds will continue. For the long term, the agricultural
science system-badly damaged by the interruptions
to higher education and research institutions in 1966-
76-is to be strengthened.
7
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 As for mechanization of agriculture, the pace is being
accelerated, but the Chinese no longer refer regullarly
to the goal of 70 percent mechanization by 1980.
Instead, the farm mechanization program is to be
rationalized by formulating plans and projects to suit
the various agricultural zones and by dropping the
across-the-board approach. Mechanization efforts will
be concentrated in designated areas, especially in the
northeast, where farming is less labor-intensive. State
farms (owned directly by the state, with workers paid
wages rather than sharing in proceeds) will on average
be the first to be extensively mechanized. As for the
more numerous collective farms, communes and
brigades may buy tractors, with state assistance if
necessary, or, alternatively, the state will provide
tractor services from new tractor centers. The Ministry
of Farm Machinery has been restored to centralize the
management of production of farm machinery. Pro-
duction of machinery and parts, which has been
scattered among a host of small local plants, is to be at
least partly consolidated and standardized.
Agricultural investment is to grow substantially (both
absolutely and as a proportion of total investment)
through increases in government investment programs
and local investment by state farms, communes,
brigades, teams, and individuals. A reorganized bank-
ing system-no doubt featuring a resurrected Agricul-
tural Bank of China-will greatly increase the funds
available for local projects. Jiangsu Province, where 70
percent of provincial funds and 80 to 90 percent of
prefecture and county funds are invested in agricul-
ture, has been pushed front stage as a financial model.
The Chinese also hope that improved incentives for
peasants and local production units will generate
greater investment and productive effort, Most of these
incentives are designed to provide greater scope for
local initiative and to tighten the link between per-
formance and rewards. The following measures, while
not yet universally adopted, are being pushed by the
central leadership and backed by an intensive press
campaign:
? The rights of ownership and decision by communes,
production brigades, and production teams are to be
protected by law.
? Commandeering of the resources and products of
production teams by higher level units without proper
compensation is prohibited.
? The principle of more pay for more work is to be
implemented.
? Private plots, domestic sideline occupations, and
village fairs are not to be interferred with as long as
obligations to the state have been properly discharged.
? The three-tier system of ownership with the produc-
tion team as the basic unit of account is to be used at
this stage in the development of a socialist China.
? Democratic management, cadre election, and publi-
cation of financial accounts are to soften the present
system of commands pressed down from the top.
? National agricultural taxes and state purchase
quotas are to be based on the taxes and quotas of the
1971-75 period, and procurement quotas are never to
leave the unit stripped of necessary resources.
? The state purchase price of quota grain is to be raised
by 20 percent and the price of above quota grain is to
be raised by 50 percent beginning with the summer
harvest of 1979; the prices of other agricultural
products are also to be raised and agricultural input
prices are to be reduced by 10 to 15 percent.
? A stable rural environment is to be created and
campaigns that have tended to disrupt agricultural
production are to be discontinued.
The greater specialization of agricultural production
has also become an important aspect of current
policies. At the Fifth National People's Conference in
February 1978, Chairman Hua Guofeng called for the
development of 12 major grain bases and an undis-
closed number of industrial crop bases (see figure 3).
Most provinces are discussing regional plans for
specialized production depending on local conditions,
Sichuan authorities, for instance, have stated that the
Chengdu Plain will concentrate on grain and oilseed
production while the areas rising above the Plain will
concentrate on sugar cane, animal husbandry, and
forestry.
8
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 1. Central and eastern Heilongjiang
2. Central Jilin
3. Huang He, western corridor in
Gansu
Ningxia
Huai He, in northern Jiangsu
7. Chang Jiang River Delta
8. Dongting Lake area of Hunan
9. Poyang Lake area of Jiangxi
10. Pearl River Delta in Guangdong
11. Chang Jiang and Han River area
in Hubei
12. Northwest of Wuhan, Hubei
_,,Shandon
9C;J Hong Kong
Macao (U.K.)
(Pnrl.)
South China Sea
400
9
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 Suburban communes are to concentrate on supplying
the nonstaple needs of the urban population. The
emphasis in these areas will shift from grain produc-
tion to animal husbandry and production of fruits,
vegetables, and oil-bearing crops. The organization of
mechanized farms for swine and poultry is to continue.
We expect the specialization policy to result in
increased production and procurement, especially for
industrial crops, fruits and vegetables, and animal
products. At the same time, the policy will decrease
local self-sufficiency and increase the amount of
agricultural traffic to be handled by the transportation
system.
The campaign to learn from Dazhai has been
deemphasized. Dazhai, a production brigade in a
remote part of Shaanxi Province, had been promoted
as a model of "self-reliance," "bitter struggle," and
"putting politics in command." The model has been
left behind because the new policies stress (a) material
incentives rather than self-sacrifice, (b) a combination
of collective and private activity rather than 100-
percent collective activity, and (c) specialization and
interdependence rather than self-sufficiency.
 Approved For Release 2001103106: CIA-RDP86BO fl J4 0741018-7
Anhui Down 10 percent to 13 million tons FBIS, 23 Jan 79, p. G3
Beijing Record, up 20 percent FRIS,9 Mar 79, p. E28
Fujian Record, up 11.4 percent FBIS, 2 Feb 79, p. GI
Gansu Increase FBIS, 28 Dec 78, p. E28
Guangdong Decline FBIS, 28 Dec 78, p. E28
Guangxi Decline FBIS, 28 Dec 78, p. E28
Guizhou Decline FBIS, 28 Dec 78, p. E28
Hebei Record, 3 percent above previous record FBIS, 15 Dec 78, p. El 8
Heilongjiang Record, up 3 million tons to more than 15 million FBIS, 19 Dec 78, p. LI
tons FBIS, 15 Dec 78, E19
Up 26 percent over 1977 SWB, FE/ W 1016/A/7, 31 Jan 79
Henan Decline FBIS, 28 Dec 78, p. E28
Hubei Increase SWB, FE/W1009/A/4, 6 Dec 78
Hunan Record FBIS, 1 l Jan 79, p. H2
FBIS, 15 Dec 78, p. H5
Jiangsu Record, up 3.5 million tons FBIS, 9 Jan 79, p. G3
FBIS 15 Dec 78, p. E18
Jiangxi Decline FBIS, 28 Dec 78, p. E28
Jilin Output reached 10.25 million tons FBIS, 16 Mar 79, p. L5
8 Feb 79, p. 25
Record increased 23 percent to more than 9.75 FBIS, 7 Feb 79, p. L2
million tons
Nei Monggol
Ningxia
Qinghai
Shaanxi
Shandong
Shanghai
Shanxi
Sichuan
Tianjin
Xinjiang
Xizang
Yunnan
Output up 2.25 million tons to 10.55 million tons FBIS, 12 Mar 79, p. L2
Increase to 11.75 million tons FBIS, 11 Jan 79, p. L4
FBIS, 23 Feb 79, p. L4
Decline FBIS, 28 Dec 78, p. E28
Increase FBIS, 28 Dec 78, p. E28
Increase FBIS, 28 Dec 78, p. E28
Increase FBIS, 28 Dec 78, p. E28
Record FBIS, 28 Dec 78, p. E28
Record SWB, FE/W/1017/A/8, 7 Feb 79
Up 50,000 tons over 1976 JPRS, 72878, 27 Feb 78, p. I
Up-475,0 - 00 tons over 1977 SWB, FE/W1017/A/8, 7 Feb 79
Decline FBIS, 28 Dec 78, p. E28
Record, up 1.5 million tons; reached FBIS, 28 Dec 78, p. E28
29.5 million tons FBIS, 30 Nov 78, p. J3
FBIS, 22 Feb 79, p. J2
FBIS, 19 Mar 79, p. L5
Up I million tons
Increase
Up 300,000 tons
Up 10 percent over 1977
Up 250,000 metric tons over 1976
Increase
Record, 13 percent over 1977
Up 12.5 percent over 1977
Zhejiang Record, up 16 percent; up 1.75 million tons
Approved For Release 2001103106: CIA-RDP86B00985R000300040018-7
FBIS, 17 Jan 79, p. E15
FBIS, 28 Dec 78, p. E28
FBIS, 13 Mar 79, p. M2
FBIS, 25 Jan 79, p. M3
FBIS, 17 Jan 79, p. M7
Xinhua, 6 Jan 79, p. 26
FBIS, 28 Dec 78, p. E28
FBIS, 9 Feb 79, p. J2
SWB, FE/W/1014/A/7, 17 Jan 79
FBIS, 25 Jan 79, p. G I
FBIS, 28 Dec 78, p. E28
FBIS, 20 Dec 78, p. G1
FBIS, 15 Feb 79, p. G4
SWB, FE/W/1014/A/6, 17 Jan 79
 Approved For Release 2001103106: CIA-RDP86B00985*0300040018-7
China: Selected Official Statements
On Agricultural Policy, 1978-79
"Report on the Work of the Enumerates long-term agricultural goals and outlines policies to
Government Delivered at the reach these goals. ( FBIS, 7 Mar 78, pp. DII-21)
First Session of the Fifth
National Peoples Congress"
Yu Qiuli, Chief, State Planning "Report at the National States that priority for trade and finance departments is to support
Commission Finance-Trade Conference" agriculture. All levels should support construction of crop bases and
rural industry and work to narrow the price scissors.' (FBIS, 6 Jul 78,
p. E l l
People's Daily editorial "Implement the Party's Policies
and Lessen the Burdens on the
Peasantry"
Li Xiannian, top economic Speech at National Conference
manager and number-four man on Capital Construction in
in the hierarchy Agriculture in Beijing
Praises Hsianghsiang country as model for increasing production by
implementing the party's policies of reducing burdens and arousing
enthusiasm. (FBIS, 7 Jul 78, pp. E1-5)
Advocates the implementation of party policies to arouse
enthusiasm. Investment in agriculture and the availability of loans
are to be stressed. At least one mechanized county per province is to
be organized. Local units are told to build high-stable-yield
farmland and reclaim farmland whenever possible. (Peking Review
No, 52, 29 Dec 78, pp. 6-16)
CCP Central Committee "Communique of the Third Outlines in detail policies to increase initiative and enthusiasm. Also
Plenary Session of the 11th mentions regional programs, modern farming centers, expansion of
Central Committee of the CCP" sideline industries, and strengthening of agricultural science,
CCP Central Committee
Decides To Remove "Labels,
Designations"
New China News Agency "Is It Still Necessary to Send
reporter Nan Zhenzhong Work Teams to the Country-
side?"
People's Daily Article "City Outskirts as Food
Producers"
People's Daily Article State Council To Reduce Rural
Tax Burden
People's Daily editorial "A Correct Policy for Speeding
Up Farm Mechanization"
"Conscientiously Carry Out
Party's Rural Policies"
Presents "Decisions of the Central Committee of the Chinese
Communist Party on Questions Concerning the Acceleration of
Agricultural Development" (draft) and "Regulations on the Work
in the Rural Peoples Communes" (draft for trial use) for discussion
and trial use. (Peking Review No. 52, 29 Dec 78, pp. 6-10)
Calls for implementation of party policies and punishment of those
who do not comply. Claims that increased output despite drought
was due to effective policies. (Xinhua, 27 Jan 79, pp. 3-4)
Notes that removal of "landlord" and "rich peasant" designations is
aimed at arousing positive factors to serve modernization. (FBIS,
30 Jan 79, pp. E1-3)
States that sending work teams to the countryside is no longer
necessary. Gives disadvantages of sending work teams. Suggests
changes in procedures. (FBIS, 1 Feb 79, pp. E15-17)
States that suburbs should supply nonstaple crop needs of the cities.
Emphasis moved to nonstaple crops and animal husbandry, with
decreased emphasis on grain. (FBIS, I Feb 79, pp. E17-18)
' The "price scissors," a term first used to describe the plight of
Soviet peasants in the early 1920s, refers to the farmer being done in
by low state procurement prices for his output and high state sales
prices for his inputs of fertilizer and machinery.
Announces that newly established sideline industries and poor
production teams will benefit from tax reductions and exemptions.
(FBIS, 6 Feb 79, pp. E6)
Notes that management must be improved and funds concentrated
to increase machinery production. Machinery should be
concentrated in chosen areas so problems of mechanization are made
clear, (FBIS, 6 Feb 79, pp. E4-5)
 v
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Agricultural
Production
Grain
Cotton
(Million Tons)
1949-52, Rehabilitation
1949
54
111
205
1950
64
130
235
1951
72
141
250
1952
84
161
280
1953-57, First Five-Year Plan
1953
84
164
278
1954
84
166
275
1955
94
180
292
1956
97
188
297
1957
100
191
295
1958-60, Great Leap Forward
1958
107
206
311
1959
83
171
253
1960
74
156
226
1961-65, Readjustment and Recovery
1961
78
168
240
1962
87
180
252
1963
93
190
260
1964
98
194
260
1965
lot
194
254
1966-70, Cultural Revolution and 1970
1966
112
215
276
1.8
1967
118
225
282
2.0
1968
110
210
257
1.8
_
1969
112
215
257
1.8
1970
126
2.0
1971-75, Fourth Five-Year Plan
1971
130
246
281
1972
126
240
268
1973
142
266
291
1974
146
275
295
1975 _
148
284
298
1976-85, 10-Year Plan
1976
148
285
293
1977
146
286
288
1978
151
295
291