BRIEFING AT USC -- PUBLISHING AND PUBLIC RELATIONS OPPORTUNITIES

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP86B00985R000400030011-4
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: K
• Document Page Count: 5
• Document Creation Date: December 16, 2016
• Document Release Date: October 6, 2004
• Sequence Number: 11
• Publication Date: October 7, 1975
• Content Type: MF

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7 October 1975
MEMORANDUM FOR: Chief, Analytical Techniques Grout)
SUBJECT . Briefing at USC - Publishing and
Public Relations Opportunities
1. On 2 October 1975, I gave a briefing on our work to a small
group at the University of Southern California. The briefing
included a general overview of OPR, highlighting the functions
of the International Functional Staff and discussing in some
detail the projects being worked on by the Analytical Techniques
Group. Present at the briefing were James Rosenau, Charles
McClelland, Patrick McGowan and Richard Ashby, who comprise the
behavioral/quantitative group in the USC School of International
Relations. All participants expressed a strong and sympathetic
interest in our work.
2. Rosenau, who is a publicist for the quantitative approach
to the study of international relations, felt that the use of
quantitative techniques in the Agency's political research is
a significant development that should be better known in the field.
He expressed an interest in doing whatever he could to help
publicize our efforts. Specifically, the following suggestions
were made during the discussion:
a. I mentioned that we were considering trying
to present a paper to the next American Political Science
Association convention concerning our use of Bayesian
statistical analysis in intelligence forecasting. Rosenau
noted that he is in charge of setting up the international
relations panels for the next APSA convention, and that
he would be happy to include such a paper. Although
it was not specifically discussed, I ammconfident that
Rosenau.also would be willing to set up an entire panel
on the applicability of quantitative techniques to
government research. This would give us an opportunity
to make a broad presentation of all our quantitative
work, and to obtain input from non-governmental specialists
concerning what quantitative approaches they consider
most relevant to governmental research needs.
b. McGowan, who is editor of the International
Yearbook of Foreign Policy Studies, indicated that he
always has difficulty getting good articles on political
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forecasting, which is one of the fields he likes to have
represented in the yearbook. He said he would be happy
to include an article from us on our use of Bayesian
analysis. Although this was discussed only in the con-
text of the Bayes project, I am certain'the same would
apply to an article on our use of the Gurr model. Re
timing of such a contribution, McGowan said Volume III
(1975) of the yearbook is now coming off the press,
Volume IV is already fully committed, so our article
would not appear until Volume V in fall 1977. He would
need to have the completed article by summer 1976,
and he should obviously be advised some time before
that the article will be forthcoming. When I commented
on the time lag prior to publication, McGowan noted that
such a time lag now exists even with the major journals.
The article by him which just appeared in the American
Political Science Review was accepted for publication
18 months ago.
c. Both Rosenau and McGowan thought that Inter-
national Studies Quarterly would be an appropriate
vehicle for a general article describing the Agency's
use of quantitative techniques for political research,
and they felt there would be strong interest in such
an article. This prompted Rosenau to volunteer that he
would be interested in co-authoring an article with me,
for publication in Foreign Affairs or Foreign Policy,
on the contribution of quantitative methods to foreign
affairs analysis in government in general, i.e., not
just in CIA. I replied that I thought quantitative
methods in government had not yet progressed to the point
where we could realistically push for publication at
the Foreign Affairs level, and that it also seemed
inappropriate for an Agency employee to publish recommen-
dations concerning how State and Defense should be using
quantitative techniques. Rosenau agreed that it would
be best to limit publication at this time to the Inter-
national Studies Quarterly level, and a descriptive article
covering the Agency's app ications of quantitative methods.
3. McGowan expressed interest in the explicit, quantifiable
data on attitude change being developed by our Bayesian projects.
He noted that it would be very interesting to study what types
of evidence cause (of fail to cause) analysts to change their views.
Under what circumstances does an estimate get modified? It was
noted that a study of this type would be publishable, and that
it would fit in with work on attitude change being done by a pro-
fessor in the psychology department at USC; I did not note the
professor's name but could easily get it if anyone is interested.
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4. Rosenau visits Washington periodically for committee
meetings, with his next trip being scheduled for about 5 December.
I invited him to come to the Agency for a day of briefings and
discussions, and he expressed interest in doing so. Whether
or not this will be during his December trip will depend upon
other aspects of his schedule. He will advise us well in advance
of any visit so that we will have time to set up a discussion
agenda and send him copies of several papers to serve as a basis
for discussion. If and when he does come, it is suggested that
briefings focus on the work of the International Functional Staff,
as he has expressed interest in this and I have already briefed
him on the work of ATG. With respect to A'PG interests, I would
suggest that he be sent a copy of the paper on the Gurr model, and
be asked to be prepared to comment on other models which might be
operationalized in somewhat the same manner.
5. General Comment: My briefing was so well received, that
I suggest such a briefing be made SOP whenever an ATG officer
visits a university or research institution which has a group of
people interested in quantitative techniques. In retrospect,
I wish I had planned my Stanford visit to include such a briefing.
STATINTL
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JTp
DATE
8 October 75
REMARKS:
I think you will be interested
in some aspects of Dick's experiences
in California. I sent a copy to Lew
and John. As you can gather from
this memo, Dick is most interested in
following un his contacts with pol,
sci. practitioners.
STATINTL
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