OPERATING PLAN - PLANNING AND EVALUATION GROUP (PEG)

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP86M00612R000200020027-2
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 17
• Document Creation Date: December 15, 2016
• Document Release Date: May 19, 2004
• Sequence Number: 27
• Publication Date: May 9, 1972
• Content Type: MEMO

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SUBJECT : Operating Plan - Planning and Evaluation
Group (PEG)
1. The main functions of the Planning and Evaluation Group
a) Planning Guidance for the Community
b) Resource Issue Studies
c) Requirements Monitoring
d) Resources Performance
e) Substantive Impact Statements
f) External Relations necessary to the above
2. The Planning and Evaluation Group will work closely with
the Community Comptroller Group in many phases of the planning,
programming and budgeting cycle and with the Product Review Group
in assessing the resource impacts of the requirements determined by
the PRG to relate to consumer needs. In particular, PEG will look
to the Program Teams for support in regard to details of the
Community's resource programs and to the PRG for changing needs
of policy-level users of the intelligence product. PEG will also work
with the Data Support Group in the development of a community
resources inventory and for support from CIRIS with data required
for planning, for issue studies and for general evaluation purposes.
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PLANNING GUIDANCE:
1. Planning Guidance issued by the Director of Central
Intelligence for the Intelligence Community will set forth the
Director's views as to the substantive wox.ld situation and its
implications for intelligence production and resources for the five-
year planning period commencing after the current program year..
Planning Guidance responds to the charge in NSCID No. 1 to the
DCI for "planning, reviewing and evaluating all intelligence
activities". The issuance of this guidance is the first event o# a
program cycle and will influence subsequent stages of the cycle from
fiscal guidance through program review to the budget for the first
year of the planning period. The National Intelligence Program
Memorandum will include the views of the DCI as to the adequacy
of the completed intelligence program in meeting the guidance issued
a year earlier.
2. Planning Guidance will require numerous contributions
from the Director's Community Staff and from the community
generally:
a) The changes in the current budget as submitted to
Congress and trends and prospects in the current program as it
proceeds to the budget stage. Both years precede the start of the
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planning period and obviously affect the resources base for that
period. PEG will look to the Comptroller Group and the Program
Teams for this data;
b) The status of other planning elsewhere in the
community. Forward planning for individual agencies and programs
is under way throughout the community; those findings, expectations
and projected needs must be taken into account in planning for the
whole community. This information will be obtained through continuing
liaison and discussion by PEG with planning elements in the community
at large;
c) An estimate of world trends and situations in the
five-year planning period. This is the substantive base for the
Director's judgments as to the resources he will need to fulfill his
responsibilities in the expected environment two to seven years from
the present. The Estimates Staff of ONE has provided such an estimate
in the past for CIA planning; it will be requested to do the same for the
DCI's community responsibility;
d) A statement of the expected needs of policy-level users
of intelligence during the planning period. PEG will look to the PRG
to assemble such a statement from its contacts with the NSCIC, with
State' s policy level through INR and with OSD and the JCS through DIA.
Another source of direction will be DCID 1/2 and its annual changes.
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e) Statements of the needs of the intelligence
community itself for information, services and resources. One
source for such statements will be the Chairmen of certain USIB
Committees who can assemble from member organizations
anticipated needs in the substantive or requirements fields for
which they are responsible. Another source will be senior officers
in'intelligence production organizations who are.aware of the
substantive problems they will have to produce intelligence about in
the years of the planning period;
f) A detailed understanding of the resources of the
intelligence resource programs. This will be acquired from the
Program Teams, from specific program element briefings, from
authoritative performance evaluation organizations in the community
and from continuing contact through the Teams with project officers
in the several programs. Resource Issue Studies will also add data
to this understanding. It will be essential to maintain contact with
R&D trends in intelligence devices and systems through the R&D
Officer in the Comptroller Group for impacts and displacements in
the planning period. Data about these resources will be stored in
the Resources Inventory maintained by the Data Support Group.
3. With these inputs, Planning Guidance will connect an
anticipated intelligence environment with the resources required and
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will thus guide resource options and allocations in the programming
process. Planning Guidance will suggest areas for resource issue
reviews and will prompt reexamination of requirements by the
appropriate bodies from USIB to the individual analyst. Under
austere fiscal constraints, both resources and requirements will need
to be reviewed; the DCI's Planning Guidance provides a framework
for such reexamination.
4. The Director may wish to ask the NSCIC, IRAC and USIB
for their views on the implications of his guidance on matters of
concern to them from substantive production to resource termination
or development. When issued, however, Planning Guidance will be
the Director's paper from which the ultimate considerations of the
National Intelligence Program Memoranda will evolve. It will state
the DCI's desired objectives and directions for the evolution of the
intelligence community and will form the backdrop for certain aspects
of the work of USIB and IRAC.
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'A LONG-TERM STRATEGY
1. A long-term intelligence strategy is needed to give
continuity and consistency to a series of Planning Guidance
issuances by setting down the broad directions toward which the
community should move year by year. The_Systems Analysis Staff
in PEG will produce such a strategy paper.
2. The objective of a long-term strategy is to optimize
the use of the total of intelligence resources and to specify feasible
paths to that end. It will incorporate structured and valued require-
ments, the capabilities and costs of resources, the characteristics
of anticipated environments, realistic constraints on rates of change
and a_scor.ekeeping system to measure effectiveness of the various
elements of the community. Through the use of systems analytic
techniques, a series of best mixes and options can be presented to
be selected for incorporation in the annual Planning Guidance. The
end product of this effort will be a presentation of optimum resource
allocations for alternative budgetary levels for points in time in the
future and the sequences of decisions by which those levels can be
reached for the several intelligence programs.
3. Generation of this long-term strategy will require all
the inputs needed for Planning Guidance and the results of a score-
keeping system used by the analytic community as well. It is this
scorekeeping which will enable successive improvements in the
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strategy and increasing precision and realism in the Planning
Guidance. A wide-ranging network of contacts throughout the
community, especially with production elements through the
cooperation of PRG, will be necessary in order to ensure the
accuracy of values on requirements and judgments on resource
performance.
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RESOURCE ISSUE STUDIES
1. Resource issue studies will be one means by which the
DCI fulfills the charge in NSCID No. 1 of ". . . evaluating all intelli-
gence activities and the allocation of all intelligence resources".
2. The issues themselves can arise as detailed examinations
of the steps by which community activities are adjusted to the DCI's
Planning Guidance. They may develop from choices to be made in
program reviews or in response to fiscal reductions by OMB or the
Congress. They may be required to determine the effects of new
yyHtemK or processes coining into operation or of old systems being
terminated or reduced. They may emerge as part of the planning or
strategy process as various options for mixes of resources develop
and need examination in detail.
3. The criteria for a resource issue study by the IC Staff
should be the possibility that the study will contribute to cross-
program choices in resource allocations; to CDIP Review choices
if identified early enough in the cycle; to increasing a cost/benefit
ratio in the operation of a program or program element; to the DCI' s
National Intelligence Program Memorandum; or to Planning Guidance
and long-term strategy.
4. Some issue studies will require direct DCI or IRAC
sponsorship. Some can be launched on the initiative of the DCI's
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Community Staff or the D/DCI/IC. Some can be proposed by USIB
and its Committees. Some can be suggested by the Program Teams
as they see problems arising in their programs at various stages in
th,e program cycle. Some may be raised by production organizations
as a result of a loss of information or an inability to acquire
necessary information for intelligence production on an important
subject.
5. The responsibility of PEG in connection with resource
issue studies will generally be to ensure that the studies, once decided
upon, are done satisfactorily and include all appropriate expertise.
In some cases, PEG would chair the study group and participate in all
stages of the study. In other cases, PEG might participate as the
DCI'S representative on a group headed by some other activity. In
still others, PEG might limit its part to monitoring the progress of
the study and reviewing the product for its usefulness to the IC Staff,
to IRAC or to Planning Guidance.
6. An up-to-date and comprehensive Resource Study Inventory,
maintained. under the auspices of IRAC. and recording all past and
current resource examinations, will be an essential support to PEG's
role in resource issue studies.
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REQUIREMENTS MONITORING
1. The purpose of this function is to respond to the charge
in the President's Directive for the DCI to reconcile intelligence
requirements and priorities with budgetary constraints. Handling
requirements is performed by a number of organizations in the
community. In most cases, however, requirements are dealt with
quite apart from their resource implications, and in most cases the
tendency is to add new requirements rather than delete older,
already satisfied or no longer pertinent ones.
2. PEG, working closely with PRO:, should maintain a
general overview of the community's principal requirements with
particular attention to the resources associated with them. Some
point is needed in the Community Staff where requirements and
resources can be put together and evaluated as to interrelationships
and effectiveness, with the assistance of the Program Teams and,
through PRG, the user community. This function is clearly a prime
requisite for judging substantive impacts of resource change
proposals and for assisting PRG in determining how the community
is responding to policy-makers' needs.
3. Another important part of this function will be to ensure
that the driving requirements of the community relate to the DCI's
Planning Guidance, particularly the section forecasting the objective
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world environment of the planning period. Likewise, the
;relationship of the DCID 1/2 to extant requirements needs to be
policed. PEG and PRG are unable to do this job by themselves.
What is needed is to monitor the requirements "jungle" and'to
draw appropriate attention to where requirements are out of line
with national planning, needs, priorities and the ability or
availability of resources to satisfy them.
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RESOURCES PERFORMANCE
1. This function is the assembly of an essential basic data
pool necessary to the other functions of PEG and the Comptroller
Group. It may help PRG as well. It is basically an outgrowth of
the Capabilities Inventory proposed as part of the NIPE System--a
compilation of resource data to be maintained and updated with the
help of the Data Support Group.
2. Under present plans, CIRIS will contain essential first-
level data on resources keyed to the Reporting Entity System used
for other CIRIS purposes. The computer information will be
supplemented bT a document library, similarly keyed, which will
contain hard copy documents- -technical specifications, productivity
evaluations, operating authorities, experts to consult and whatever
other documentary material becomes available on the given resource.
It is not intended that this resources inventory be an exhaustive,
totally complete compilation. Rather, it is to serve as the first
point of entry into the understanding of a resource in fairly general
terms. Perhaps one of its most useful items of information would
be the identity, location and phone number of the best people to
contact for a full and up-to-date fill-in on what and how a resource
is doing.
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3. While the Resource Inventory will concentrate in the
beginning on collection resources, it could expand later into the
processing and production fields. The PRG study on Production
4esources is a good beginning in this direction. The ultimate
nature and content of the Resources Inventory will be determined by
the need for it by various elements of the IC Staff. Much will depend
on the Program Teams and their willingness to provide data and
up-date material. It may prove at a later stage to be unnecessary,
replaced by the completeness of the Program Teams' files and
knowledge.
4. The performance assessment part of this function is
much more complicated than the compilation of objective descriptive
data about a resource. These assessments will vary greatly in
form, comprehensiveness and objectivity depending on their sources
and original purposes. Some will be derived from Resource Issue
Studies, some from scorekeeping associated with long-term strategy
and Planning Guidance, some will be by-products of the work of
Program Teams, some will come out of USIB Committees, and some
will arise from analyst queries or complaints over changes in the
information needed to maintain production. It will be , QQ'!L role to
marshal these assessments, prompt new ones, update older one,_and
generally maintain them as the underpinnings of the evaluation function
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of l 'l-,Cr. Over time, the availability of these assessments and
their integration by systems analysis across program lines should
make the production of DCI substantive impact statements on
resource options prompter in delivery and more authoritative in
backing.
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SUI3STANTIVE IMPACT STATEMENTS
1. Substan }ye. impact statements have been up to now the
main means by which the DCI has influenced Defense resource
allocations and reductions in the CDIP Review process. They will
assume greater importance in the light of the Presidential Directive
and NSCID No. 1. While the principal substantive impact statement
b the DCI will be in the form of the National Intelligence Program
Memorandum at the end of the program cycle, there will be needs
for the DCI's views on choices among options at earlier steps in the
cycle, particularly in the CDIP Review.
2. It can be expected that the whg,l e5tff_.will be involved
in one or another way in producing substantive impact statements.
A number will be made on the spot by the Program Teams involved
in the review exercise. PRG may be drawn in as resource changes
may affect product improvements desired by NSCIC. PEG's
contrilnution may be indirect, the results of a series of resource issue
studies during the year or the implications and general directions for
a program or part of one derived from the Planning Guidance and the
underlying long-term strategy. PEG could assist more directly
through its contacts with USIB Committees and production offices in
obtaining their judgments where time permitted. Experience indicates
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that the pace of the CDIP review and the full-time involvement in
it by the Program Teams makes a point of reference at Langley
a useful service which PEG could provide or assist in. Much will
depend on the procedures of the CDIP Review itself, and the IC
Staff and PEG should be prepared to be flexible in response.
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