NSC MEETING ON MUTUAL AND BALANCED FORCE REDUCTIONS (MBFR) - FRIDAY, JANUARY 13, 1984

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP86M00886R000300140015-1
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 19
• Document Creation Date: December 22, 2016
• Document Release Date: December 6, 2010
• Sequence Number: 15
• Publication Date: January 10, 1984
• Content Type: MEMO

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SECRET
fir. Donald Gregg
Assistant to the Vice President
for National Security Affairs
NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL,
WASHINGTON. D.C. 20306
~~ ltr. Charles Hill
3~tecvtive Secretary
~~ ~ nepartment of State
:~ Col tP)--John Stanford
Executive--Secretary
Departm~gt_of Defense
~ Dz. Alton'Keel
.~~_Associate-Director for National Security
~~ and International Affairs
Office of-Management and Budget '
Esec~utive? Secretary
Ceat=a1~Intelligence Agency
~O1l.T~NSC Meeting on Mutual
_ .. _ .. -ram'?!--~.... -..~1 ~.. ~ ~~.. z
_:
~ :. ._. _
~~
{C1
January I0; 1984'
Ms. Jacqueline Tillntiaa == -;
Executive~Assistant to the
United States
Representative to the.IInited~
Nations
BG George A. JoulWan
Executive Assistant to tha -
Chairman, Joint Chiefs of Staff
Mr. William B. Staples-
Executive Secretary -_ _~_ _
Arms Control and Disarmament Agancy~?
. ,
Ambassador Morton Abramowitz
~
""
Chief Negotiator -- --
Mutual and Balanced Farce
_
--
Reductions --
and Balanced Force Reductions (MBFR) -- Friday,
~'~ttacbed-Fig_an interagency discussion paper providing an Overview of-MBFR
Optsons-~fos~use at the National Security Council meeting to_ be-held pia the
:--1lbtt~-Hoosa Cabinet Room on Friday, January 13, 1984, at 11:00_a.nL.T(S)=-= '
I~~+~tN11'l.' ~vwM++~l
Robert M. immitt
,Executive Secretary.
S'?ERE~
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:_
Overview of MBFX?-ap~~ions-' -'?- ~ ~~~
In hYs decisions of October 14 and _October 29, 1983, the Presi-
dent directed that the senior Arms Control Policy Group, working..' __
:~ with the Ir.tezdepartnental Group (IG) on NATO Conventional Forces
-:.and Arks Control, review alternative MBFR options and possible -
~ ,negotiating strategies far the Future. The attached papers, which =-`
__incluce fleshed-out options?and a revised verification annex, __
;,.,.fie:pond. to this' -task inc.
St~att~.? of the 2:e~otiations
~-"z~stegotia::o:s is that both a data agreement and a comprehensive ~i0.
~
~-'~vt:ificb:ior. package are essential prerequisites for a treaty
signatLZe and for any initial VS-Soviet reductions. ~~ -`
~~.
-_ . _ Luri:.c the cc:: rent necct iatiny round in Vienna, the t~lest has
~`~~eontir.::Q_ to press its approach to reduc~ior.s, verification an~___
data: ;::e kest has explained its rationale and has proposed
?.L possible modalities for focusing further discussion on verification
in order to make progress where such progress is possible.
~,t.- .
~'- :re _ast has pressed hard for a "constructive" keste:n response =~
~'~' to tre _ra.t treaty it tables in ~~ienra ?on June 23, 1983, end to its~~?.._
.~~' ~ ~~.. ~ : _~ .?~.,,.?,.~ l e of ~e~..-c?a ~v 1 7 _ 1 9A3 caul l i na fr~r US /Snvzn-t r,~tf?~sl .-'?
~~ ''~aYa~--'e zec~ctiors, a freeze, anc reductions to parit}? without'gzior~' _ ~" !=M'
,;~_ Data ac.ee-ant: ~ The kestern Ad Hoc Group assess?~ent of the?F:astern -: :~. ~ ~- -~,F.
--draft Lztatl- states, "On balance the draft r,.oves the East scmewhat _' `~~
-- - -. .. - -- ------ -_ __ ..rirr --------- -------~~=- ----~ - - ....
..: :..~>
- -zeg~rd to verifiable parity. HowEVer, the draft does not provide
~~ -~assuzar.ces that the Last wi 11 actually take the asymmetzical
:
--
~-
;.,,~ -rzeductiors needed to reach peril}, and its proposed vezifieatioR ~-_,:
-= On Octobez 25, in an unexpected move, Eastern zepresenta= .?? ~_ .: ~ .=-
=~
.
.,,- :
:;"=?'tives presented a significant modification in theiz position by._ .~__?
z~~ reductions of the most sicr.ificant contingents and inc-ude in ??~~~ f~=
--~-the pla::s information on the numerical strength, nationality.
__=rdesig:.ation and location of those contingents. This proposal -.
_
---~==r~ocifies the East's earlier opposition to ary nuaerically specified
~=eductio::s to eoual levels ana to any real numerical verification of
_
=`--=chase reductions. This sea Eastern position ensures that observe- --
-trot, of reciuctior:s +:ill tai:e place on a predictarle basis- and not
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solely at the invitation o? the reducing side. '
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?t .
:'
'-4 gro?ing differences among the F,llies on Ml3FR necotiating poliey.~ ____
7'ne delegation assessment states, "As we perceive it from here, the
Gernars, Dutch, Canadians and i~ordics feel that the US a^.d L'K art
= . too rigid and are assur.-in~ `cc de'ensive a posture in this sego- --='_-
~~,? tiatioa. They are also concerned that the East nas substantially-~:
~'~ enhanced i.ts posture, not only in the_ t~.BFR negotiations_.hut publicly,'' ~~
:,'u-. ..~ And that this could dia:inish- the credibility of she kesi~'s. overall ~.'?.
arms control pvsture"in ti+estern .publ'ie~~opinion:-.:hes~. lilies az~~..f~'
the he~herlands, and Gerz:any..... It also appears likely that the
Alliance posture on J~BFR will be raised at the NRTO?I-linisterial -~.?._
any 'f~:rther -moves are. now up to the West, and the East will take no
- - F ?-
nore initiatives in the absence of a Western. response::..- Soviet
represen~atives have taken the same position in bilateral discus-
sions with us regarding. the ~S probe on.verification which. was
launched i n June . ~ - " - - _ -
? Havir;g made those moves, the East has taken the position. that
A recent _delegation assessment of the current situation in Lhe ,__.
-negotiationsmakes .the following pointss : "In looking at~.tha new ,
the} will make no further moves in the absence of a western __ _
resin:~ng for years -- into the reduction and mon:torinc process. ._
Laster. coves on verification provide possitilities for pinning down
the Sov;ets core firmly on an effective verification sys:es in KBFIS.:
-:.
'' "Actually taking advantage of these opportunities is anothir ___~
c~~estion. Eastern representatives have told us that having
i:esec.teci these new proposals and having answered Wastern questions,
Eastern position, we shoulQ consider whether we casi .take advantage
of the opportunities provided by these concessions to bring the last
still further towards U5 ttBFR objectives. For example, the East's.':
willingness to specify the 'bulk' of reductions co~ild provide an ~ -
openir,y to introduce specific ns=bets --.which the Soviets have :~eea. .
counterproposal. ~:Mile this posztion could?changa, it seeas to us
unlikely to 0o so for some tire." ~- ~ ~_ ~.. -
i7e delegation has also called-attention, ~as.has US:.AT'~:, to ,'
looking to the US for a lead and to KATO for anew position. t+'hile= --
this has not yet become a major issue,. it is percolating at senior _
gover:tnent levels, particularly in Canada (Trudeau's Guelph speech).
xaeeting."
Ia addition, Chancellor kohl has written to the==President=,
~.
1 I ne s of the FRG approach . _: .-- - .,.
Flea~ing for a-new hestern initiative in the negotiations==along .the
. .. _ _
r -- _ -?...__..r..
A: ainst this Dac'Kgrour.d, the I~:bFR IC has exasined a sags of _~ -
optic::s, Which are .briefly summarized Delok. As a benchzark_-foZ?~?? _ _
corparison, the curzer,t Western position in [:SFR is_su=: arized first. --
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? - - 3 - :a`':-. " -?--~--pro::.='=
Common to all the options is the need, following a US decision.
to coordinate our position :first with the_UK,.and FRG trilaterally,
then ui th the other Allies in NATO. ~ ?~-= ~- -?
AlI options are compatible. .with further
Peasuzes including?an enhanced Measure b on
de egation proposed in connection
which the
,
Current PositlOn'? ~ ~ A? s?
work on associated -_-
exchange of infora~atfor-,~-
wi th Option Three. -_ -=-=:
The currant Western position, embodied in tn? azazz zzsa:y :.. - _~ -?~ :; .
tabled on July. 8, 1982, envisages the following sec -once of steps::~.:,; ..~.
-- Agree on c:ata ~ i .e ? , current totals fo= .NATG and kazsaw_~aet,~;,~=. ,~.~ "
~ni 1 i :ary .:anpowsr in Centsal Europe) ? _ ._:--_ _-- ~---_ .,,
- - --- ~.
-- Agree cn site
ground personnel and
each side.
,~?,_~
of reductions to parity, at about 700,000.=~ -`~` -:~-=?~f
~~
900, 000 ground and air pezsonr.~2 cor-binsd,~on ? ==. ~
on verificatior. measures Ca package of seven -r ---- -.-_~--
A
ges
-
ver i i ication and confidence-building measures is contained.-in Annss--~--
II tc the western draft treaty).
SiS~ ar.3 ratify IIbF~P. treaty.
Ioplecent verification measures ana reauctions. ~. __~ , ? _ - _ ==-
US reduces 13,000 ground personnel in first stagei_~L'S~A~~?"??=
~
~
M siibsegcent.stages..:_.;-.; _
in three
__ ~.t t nizeet participants reduce
'~ cns to be completed within seven `years ~.. .? ~~ ?.~~~_. - ~?f=~^?-=~~=
-- Fe~ueti - _ _. _ ,
one: Fetain the current a roach re uizina a reeneat on Data
i
~r,?
o:~
anc~ a ~E"1 lcatlon package as Frere ulsltes or treaty slgratuze an
initial L'S-Soviet reductions. ~ ~ .
Unger this option a short-term and a long-term approach are ?
s?5gested. Both essentially retain the princip3_s of tht current
a~.~pzoach as defined by its seouence of steps. The longer-ttrn
apr:oaca, however, suggests fundacertal modifications to elements o_`
therefore. realizes a coripreher.aive study of
ition and
,
oLr t~;3FP. pos
ifications. The short-tern proposal is designeJ to press'ths ~:
Its za~
~,~st for further movenent on verification and to serve as a response ~--
wita
fl~et
__:" ~ __ f
(NAME)
TO (AGENCY) D ~_TO:
Mr. Thomas 8. Cormack
Executive Secretary
Central I
t
lli
n
e
gence Agency
Mr. Charles Hill
.Executive Secretary `
8 Department of State
Col (P) John Stanford
Executive Secretary
,~ Department of Defense
Ms. Jacqueline Tillman
sxecutive Assistant to the
United States
Rmpreeentative to the United
Nations
BG George A. Joulwan
Executive Assistant to the
Chairman, Joint Chiefs of Staff
Mr. William B. Staples
Executive Secretary
Arms Control and Disarmament Agency
Ambassador Morton Abramowitz
Chief Negotiator
~_- _ ___ +~zua1 and Balanced Fer~?n
DEPT/ROOM R0. EXTENSION
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