PROSPECTS FOR INCREASED TERRORISM AGAINST THE UNITED STATES IN THE WAKE OF THE LATEST BOMBING IN BEIRUT

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP86M00886R001100010012-9
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 13
• Document Creation Date: December 22, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 19, 2009
• Sequence Number: 12
• Publication Date: September 29, 1984
• Content Type: MEMO

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Central Intelligence Agency
Office of the Deputy Director for Intelligence
29 September 1984
MEMORANDUM FOR THE DIRECTOR OF CENTRAL IJENCE
Attached is the survey of the current terror-
ist threat situation against the United States
that you requested. As you know, most of the threat
reporting we receive and evaluate daily tends to
be vague, often inconsistant, and the product of
sources of undetermined reliability. Consequently,
though we have tried to capture with some specifi-
city all the threats that appear to have any credi-
bility, some will no doubt turn out to be false
alarms. And, because of the nature of terrorist
tactics, there is no doubt we have missed some or
simply lack enough data to anticipate them.
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29 September 1984
Prospects for Increased Terrorism Against the United States
in the Wake of the Latest Bombing in Beirut
Indications of Heightened Threat
We believe several serious incidents of anti-American
terrorism could easily occur over the next several months.
o By all indications, the bombing of the US Embassy Annex
in Beirut on 20 September 1984 is not part of a new or
coordinated wave of terrorism against the United
States. Nevertheless, a number of credible reports from
a variety of sources indicate that terrorist groups--
particularly in Lebanon--with established capabilities
are contemplating specific actions against US citizens
and facilities.
o The latest spectacular suicide bombing against the
United States in Beirut by the so-called Islamic jihad
signals Iran's continuing willingness to use terrorism
to force the United States out of Lebanon and serves as
a powerful example to terrorists elsewhere.
o The presidential election campaign in the United States
offers an inviting opportunity for terrorist groups to
showcase their grievances and thereby hopefully
influence the candidate campaigns and perhaps even
voting results, as Iran attempted to do through the
hostage crisis four years ago.
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The principal threat continues to come from the Middle East,
where Iran, working through and with various fundamentalist
Shiite terrorist groups, is undertaking a concerted
program of terror to drive the US out of Lebanon. over the next
several months, Iranian-connected groups are likely to launch
additional attacks against Americans in Lebanon, and possibly in
other Middle Eastern States. The most likely targets will he
diplomatic and military personnel and their official facilities
and residences with terrorists choosing among those that appear
most vulnerable.
and large, the threat of terrorist attacks--with some notable
Though we cannot rule out Iranian-inspired attacks outside
the middle East, anti-American terrorism in other regions is more
likely to be stimulated largely by local or regional issues. In
Latin America, Americans will be most vulnerable in El Salvador
and Colombia. In Europe, attacks most likely would come from
radical leftist groups in France, Greece, Italy, or Turkey. By
exceptions--is lowest in Asia and Africa.
The Middle East has the greatest potential for high-casualty
terrorist attacks. Well armed and organized terrorist groups
proliferate throughout the region. These groups benefit from
extensive regional support networks among the indigenous
populations as well as help and instigation from collaborating
states like Iran, Syria, and Libya. Perhaps most importantly,
they have amply demonstrated the will and ability to attack US
Any American or American facility should be regarded at high
risk in Lebanon, particularly in Beirut. At present both
explicit and implicit threats abound, with the sorting out
process impeding US ability to provide security for our personnel
in the region. The bulk of those threats considered most serious
are tied to the activities of Iranian-connected groups--
operating under the nom de guerre of Islamic Jihad--who are
persons and facilities at their general discretion
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supported by Palestinanian groups like PFLP-GC or the Iranian
Revolutionary Guards.
o Our analysis
suggests that the Hizballah
are planning to stage a fol ow-up attack to the bombing
of the American Embassy Annex. The French Embassy is
the most likely target, but US diplomatic facilities and
personnel remaining in Beirut are also candidates.
o Muhammad Husayn Fadlallah, a radical Shia leader, has
claimed that the next targets in Beirut will
be the Porfin Building housing our Embassy chancery, the
British Embassy Annex, various West German facilities,
and the Swiss Ambassador. US Embassy security officers
have observed individuals surveilling the Porfin
Building over the past week, and have identified one as
an employee of the Iranian Embassy.
o US officers in the UN observer group were threatened by
an anonymous phone call on 29 September.
0 A variety of reportsi
suggest that the major Shia terrorist groups and
possibly the PFLP-GC are involved in intensive guerrilla
training as well as specific planning for attacks
against US persons and facilities in Beirut.
Though the threats in Lebanon are too numerous and often too
vague to cataloge, most signal either bombings or armed
attacks. Based on our knowledge of the groups involved, we
believe kidnappings for the purpose of gaining additional
hostages like Buckley are also possible.
With a few additions, the same countries and groups causing
the most trouble in Lebanon also appear to he at work elsewhere
in the Middle East.
0 In Kuwait, local security remains insufficient to
eliminate the terrorist threat. Two Iranian-backed
plots against non-US targets have been aborted since
May, but Kuwait probably remains a prime target. Dawa
Party members convicted for the December bombings remain
in jail in Kuwait, and US interests could be targets of
any Iranian attempt to secure their release through
extortion. The location of the US Embassy in Kuwait
makes it very vulnerable to attack, according to
observers on the scene.
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o Iran is continuing its efforts to infiltrate trained
Bahraini Shias back into Bahrain. An Islamic Front for
the Liberation of Bahrain infiltrator arrested on 16
August admitted a US-owned oil refinery was one of his
targets. The US Navy facility received an anonymous
threat from Islamic Jihad early last summer.
o While goverment security is extensive inside Iraq, there
have been several Dawa attacks agains
French targets during the past year. 7
Iranian-backed terrorists may be
Bagdad.
initiating a campaign against Western interests in
o There is no evidence of a near term threat to US
interests in the UAE but local security is poor and the
US Embassy is highly vulnerable.
o In Saudi Arabia, the government improved its security
measures substantially prior to the recently concluded
Hajj. We believe an attack on Americans is less likely
than in other Gulf states, but Israeli intelligence
reports that Iran may have infiltrated subversives into
Saudi Arabia under cover of the pilgrimage.
o In Jordan, Syria has been using both the Abu Nidal Group
(Black June) and the Jordanian Revolutionary People's
Party to dissuade King Hussein from negotiating with
Israel or supporting Arafat. Last summer, the group
attempted to place bombs at US diplomatic facilities.
The recent Jordanian resumption of diplomatic relations
with Egypt may provoke more terrorist attacks in Jordan,
possibly against US targets. The Abu Nidal group has
demonstrated its capability to conduct assassinations
throughout the world, and its overseas cells could be
turned against the United States. In July, a number of
US Embassies and other facilities in the middle East
received threats from the Arab Revolutionary Brigades, a
cover name previously used by Abu Nidal. The US
Embassy, for its part, is located on a main road, and
would be vulnerable to Beirut-style suicide attacks.
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activity will not resume.
halt to the exercise, we are not confident that the
Earlier this year, the Iraqi-based 15 May Organization
attempted to place bombs on flights between Israel and
Europe. Though Iraq--following US objections--forced a
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lvr OrIk-mr 1
Latin America
Terrorism in Latin America usually occurs in the context of
leftist guerrilla insurgencies whose members see the United
States as the major supporter and manipulator of the governments
they seek to overthrow The most serious danger is in Colombia,
where strong US support for the government's actions against
narcotics traffickers and subversives makes US officials and
facilities compelling targets. The most virulently anti-US group
is the Ricardo Franco Front, which claimed responsibility for a
series of bombings in Bogota on 23 May 1984 directed primarily
against offices of the US Government and American businesses such
as ITT and Texaco. A steady stream of reports about terrorist
plans to kidnap or kill the Ambassador or other Embassy
personnel, usually involving the Ricardo Franco Front, factions
of the 19th of. April Movement (M-19), or the National Liberation
Army, were persuasive enough to compel the Ambassador's return to
the ITS for consultations in late August.
Despite relatively few attacks against the United States
over the past 10 years, El Salvador is another area of immediate
concern . Leftist Salvadoran guerrillas belonging to the Clara
Elizabeth Ramirez Front have been surveilling Embassy personnel,
especially Marine Security Guards. 25X1
the guerrillas also intend to launch a terrorist 25X1
offensive in Bogota soon. The guerrillas most likely would
target US military advisers and Embassy personnel--as was done in
the May 1983 assassination of US Navy Lieutenant Commander
Schauf.leberge.r--and "institutions controlled by the US
Embassy". some Salvadoran 25X1
terrorists have discussed the Beirut bombing, and may be planning
a similar operation; another report indicates the targeting of
Threats elsewhere in Latin America, while possibly more
potential than real at present, also merit attention.
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o Based on captured documents and interrogations of
Ecuador's Alf_aro Vive Carajo (AVC) personnel, AVC plans
to follow up its May 1984 Embassy bombing with further
attacks including a second bombing.
o Chile is experiencing a rising tempo of bombings that
has included US businesses as incidental targets.
o A Costa Rican group, La Familia, was surveilling Embassy
personnel last January, but most members of the group
were jailed this year.
o The Revolutionary Armed Forces, a Guatemalan group
responsible for anti-American attacks in 1983, may be
planning soon to engage in urban terrorism--an effort
which US Embassy". According to a recent report some
Salvadoran terrorists have discussed the Beirut bombing
and may he planning a similar operation; another report
indicates the targeting of Embassy personnel who jog.
0 The Ambassador's residence in Bolivia was bombed on 4
March 1984 by elements associated with dru
o Rightist frustration in Argentina prompted threats
against US installations during President Alfonsin's
just concluded visit to Washington.
Western Europe
Indigenous terrorist groups in the region are no longer as
active as they were at the beginning of the decade, but the
region's leftwing and anarchistic groups remain a significant
threat to US personnel and property. In addition, Western Europe
continues to be the site of Middle-Eastern terrorist activities.
o The Lebanese Armed Revolutionary Faction (LARF) has been
responsible for sporadic attacks on US and Israeli
diplomats in France and Italy since 1981, including the
attempted assassination of the US Consul in Strasbourg,
France in March of this year.
o The 27 September sentencing of Turkish terrorists
belonging to the Marxist-Leninist Armed Propaganda Unit
(MLAPU), a group responsible for assassinating several
Americans during the chaotic days prior to the September
1980 coup in Turkey, could provoke a terrorist attack
against US servicemen and property.
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o The leftist Creek terrorist organization 17 November
claimed responsibility for the assassination of US Navy
Captain Tsantes in late 1983 and the shooting this year
of a JUSMAGG military courier. In late September 1984,
we received information that the group had targeted the
political counselor at the US Embassy for assassination
later this year. Reportedly the Embassy has yet to
install physical barriers because of concern that it
must not appear as a fortress combined with a hesitancy
to offend the Greek government.
o France's leftist group, Direct Action (AD) has an anti-
Jewish, anti-Israeli stance which could conceivably lead
to attacks on ITS officials or buildings. 25X1
Direct Action stole 800 kilograms of 25X1
TNT from a Belgian quarry in June, and has threatened to
attack "symbols of Western Imperialism" by placing five
car bombs around Paris. US diplomatic and military
facilities would be likely targets.
o West German counterterrorist operations have reduced the
leftist Red Army Faction's (RAF) effectiveness.
Specifically, their July 1984 capture of RAF personnel
and documents may have prevented the staging of attacks
against US and NATO targets including the US Army
airfield in Karlsruhe, Dolan Caserne in Schwaebisch, the
caserne and housing area at Bad Toelz, the Campbell
Caserne in Oberammergau, and about 30 locations along
the NATO pipeline. The RAF's surprising ability to
recruit new members despite West German police successes
however, makes it a continuing threat to US interests.
o Red Brigades' (BR) documents recently recovered by
Italian police indicate a continuing interest in NATO
installations as well as in domestic political and
military targets. There are indications that the BR has
improved internal security practices, which could
nullify Italian terrorist warning capabilities. Key
members remain at large while recent reforms in the
preventive detention system could allow the release of
some 300 accused terrorist from prison, including
several suspected of being involved in the Aldo Moro
kidnaping and murder.
o Spain's First of October Anti-fascist Resistance Group
(GRAPH) this summer embarked on a bombing campaign that
included the General Motors showroom in Aviles, Spain.
The group is known to have gathered data on the US
military residence connected with the Torrejon base, but
its capability to conduct an attack is minimal.
o While the credibility of much of the information is
questionable, Libyan and Iranian 25X1
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plans attacking US diplomatic and military personnel in
Western Europe
implicated in prospective attacks.
ASALA, the left-wing Armenian group,
particularly active in France, may have negotiated with
Iran to attack US targets in return for the release of
imprisoned members.
Although there is currently no evidence of any ongoing
terrorist plots targeting US personnel or facilities in Asia, the
history of terrorist attacks in the region suggest that American
interests in some countries will remain at varying levels of
risk.
o Last December, ]Pakistan's Al-Zulfikar members were
apprehended while planning to kill the US Consul General
in Lahore. Members of another Al-Zulfikar cell were
arrested in Vienna last summer after planning to seize
American hostages there and in Rome.
o Within Sri Lanka, Tamil terrorist groups represent an
increasing threat to US personnel and facilities. Since
May, an American USAID couple has been kidnaped, the
hotel housing the Israeli Interests Section has been
bombed, and the main USAID office was the object of a
planned bombing.
o In Bangladesh, a new threat could grow out of an
"Islamic Jihad organization" with reported ties to both
Libya and Iran. The group has reportedly stated its
intention to attack "un-Islamic" Western targets
beginning later this year.
o Japan's left-wing radical group Chukaku-ha (Nucleus
Faction) conducted a series of minor firebombings
against lightly-guarded US facilities last summer, and
called off a planned attack on the US Embassy in the
fall of 1983
Chukaku-ha reportedly has Pd tn attack an
unspecified embassy soon.
o Firebombings also characterize the threat to US
installations in South Korea, where three American
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cultural facilities have been attacked since 1982.
South Korean dissidents are thought to have been
responsible for the bombings, which killed or injured
several South Koreans.
o In the Philippines, anti-Marcos violence by the
Communist New People's Army could affect US interests
with little or no warning. The last attack against
American servicemen was in 1971, but the United States
remains a high-visibility target because of its man
military and diplomatic installations.
Africa
The only serious terrorist threat to US personnel and
facilities in Africa is likely to come from hostile Libyan-
sponsored groups in countries that stretch south and east from
Libya itself.
o The French troop withdrawal from Chad will place US
facilities at greater risk from Libyan-backed
insurgents. In addition, Libyan-sponsored terrorists
arrested in Chad earlier this year said the US Embassy
was on their target list.
o In Sudan, Libyan sponsored rebels in the south probably
represent the greatest threat to US facilities.
Sudanese authorities have uncovered at least two plots
this year to bomb the US Embassy as part of schemes to
overthrow President Nimeiri.
o The large Libyan infrastructure in Ethiopia allows for
attacks on American diplomats with little or no
warning. A house in Addis Ababa occupied by Libyans who
were building a bomb, blew up on 11 May, just after the
resolution of the siege of the Peoples' Bureau in
London.
o In Somalia, an Ethiopian-sponsored threat to US
facilities in the north, including the US Navy
installation at Berbera, has been reported. Zairean
exiles operating out of neighboring states are recieving
increased support from Libya and could attack US
facilities.
Elsewhere in Africa, the threats are more difficult to
assess. Small pockets of Islamic fundamentalists throughout
Africa--for example in northern Nigeria--could threaten US
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interests, and we would have little or no warning of attack from
such a quarter. These groups, however, are closely watched by
host governments, which view them as threats to regime
stability. In other African countries, the combination of
inadequate security and endemic political violence--such as in
Uganda--could also affect official and nonofficial US personnel
at any time.
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