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July 20, 1984
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Approved For Release 2008/11/20: CIA-RDP86M00886R001400120007-0 Central Intelligence Agency ER 84-4010/1 20 July 1984. MEMORANDUM FOR:.. The Honorable Robert M. Kimmitt Executive Secretary, National Security Council SUBJECT: The Human Tragedy of Dislocation REFERENCE: Your Memorandum of 16 July 1984, Subject: Castro's Cuba: A Model for Arrested Development We have no comments on the subject memorapdum. txecutive Secretary cc: Mr. Charles Hill Executive Secretary. Department of State Colonel R.J. Affourtit, USA Executive Secretary . Department of Defense Distribution Original - Addressee 1 - Each CC listed above 1 - NIO/LA 1 S Chrono e;--OE R Approved For Release 2008/11/20: CIA-RDP86M00886R001400120007-0 Approved For Release 2008/11/20: CIA-RDP86M00886R001400120007-0 Approved For Release 2008/11/20: CIA-RDP86M00886R001400120007-0 Approved For Release 2008/11/20: CIA-RDP86M00886R001400120007-0 I NATIONAL SECURITY COUNcu. WASHINGTON. O.C. 20306 I July 16, MEMORANDUM FOR MR. CHARLES HILL Executive Secretary Department of State COL R. J.'AFFOURTIT Executive Secretary Department of Defense Executive Secretary Central Intelligence Age SUBJECT: White House Digest: "Ca A Model for Arrested Dev Please provide your comments regarding Digest, "Castro's Cuba: A Model for Ar July 20. Thank you. tt+p' is; Cuba : - 1j~ ..nt" ho attached Waite ' t9use exs:e4 Development 141 i,a mitt, Robert 11. Executi e C ecretary .White House Digest Approved For Release 2008/11/20: CIA-RDP86M00886R001400120007-0 Approved For Release 2008/11/20: CIA-RDP86M00886R001400120007-0 In the 25 years that Fidel Castro consistently portrayed his revolution a states that wish to escape the burdens Castro presents Cuba as a success-story country was woefully underdeveloped in impressive statistics in different area Such a portrayal ignores many impo ately misleading. Cuba before January most other, if not all-other Caribbean} economic areas. In 1958 Cuba enjoyed the highest G (CNP) and per capita income in the Cari It had significantly larger numbers of its Caribbean and Central American neig numbers of such items were steadily ris the Castro takeover. By 1975, however, several Latin Am passed Cuba in some of these economic i that while some progress had been made approach the progress made during the s countries. Eight other Caribbean Basin states;, all of whom were ~rtall televisions in 1958, made great strides in aii tr,e4 area4py 1977. In Cuba, on the other hand, they ,was notljin3 apprg ,chir,g the improvement in the other eight states. If ar,4yt~4ing, C ;pa has shown itself to be a model of arrested evelopmerjt. Nevertheless, impressive sounding lairgs aret made by ;C,astrc, and on behalf of Castro. One of these s the supposed im rpve-, ment in the infant mortality rate in t years since 1959,' Again, Castro began from a high level. Cuba's igfa{it morality rate in 1959 was 32 per thousand. This as better than moat countries in the world, including Germa y, Italy arnci Spai Irk. 1970, the rate had risen to 38%, althou h Castro cl,piins tq .,iave, reduced it to 19% by 1980. Castro also takes credit for improving literacy and 9'e;1ica,1 care. In-the area of literacy, the rat in 1959 was 78% Ina rising. Castro's *success" has been si ply in doing away with remaining pockets of illiteracy. Impro eTnent in me1ical mare, measured in numbers of people per physi ian, has also lag e;1 w?,11 behind the improvement made in other de eloping couptriesI In the meantime, the Cuban economy dependent on sugar and on a huge Soviet future Castro has to offer his Third Wo STED DEVELOPMENT as ruled Curpa, he. As a model fo,r Third world f underde,ve lopmen t . implying; triat thq 959 but row boasts p f econc mip 4eve hpmen,t . t.ant facts pnd is 958 was q;el~ wheal totes -in mapy. Sig 1 lih r- pf ificant ops Natic,naL Prod ICX pan Basl,n pLrter tr U. S. FS and t;eltrphone than prs , Mcireipver, ng in then yirars b1fpre ri,can coi;intries hid di,cators, d;rmonstrt ting- n Cuba, i,t - c id not e years in non-CCmipunist has grown} c,pmplet ly subsidy. This is the Id imitator 11 Approved For Release 2008/11/20: CIA-RDP86M00886R001400120007-0 Approved For Release 2008/11/20: CIA-RDP86M00886R001400120007-0 Introduction Cuba is similar to Ohio both in si frequently presented as a model for and of the alleged improvements that have b economic indicators since Castro-marche 1, 1959. This model that is held up for emu American scholgrs is one of rigid state and greatly restricted civil liberties. A Mexican scholar- recently wrote. between civil liberties and what he ca liberties," which he claims Cuba has c many apologists for Cuba when he says: "How are we going to say to (Mexicans, Salvadorans, Guatemala socialism to defend their liberty liberty? Do we really think that can express all their frustration, Let us think for a moment that we Nicaraguans of those fundamental have conquered. "Let us tell them that ... receive free medical attention. kurger. That in Cuba everyone ha the Nicaraguans that in return fo of expression in Cuba and dissent them the choice. What do you thi stay as they are, dying of hunger liberty yf expression? Or would option?" This reasoning, besides revealing elitism, also assumes that it is neces freedom and plenty. Further, it accep reign has been an economic success sto The reality - Cuba Bef In 1958, Cuba was far ahead of mo American neighbors economically. More tors used to measure such progress wer 1950s. Some of these advances had little system the island had. Advances in to industry have taken place all over the and all countries have benefitted to v ingenious for Castro to take credit fo that have taken place while he has hel e ar,,d population. it i,s r4evelopt d states becaL;;Fe en made ;n a numbi;r of into Hayana on J11nuary ation by so, many forth control of the ec 11 nomy ,qt the ciitferenc1 cered. He, is ty' 11 ical 4?f J~ of the:fie pet ple ! s) that they m?st 1 fight of a :pres;tic,n? all these misex'abl) peop'l.e k;itterne;ps anc4 an er? i,ght tolls to the kterties -01,t the 1.4,ban; G ba all tike 4:ni t ;'en hgit ~n Cu)?.a no one 4kk-oes... , P,nd lets this there is no is not al.Los,,,ed and they wok;144 prefe bit exert isi,ng the-, hey {hoos,p the oth a ce l: to in amount o q;ies of u,s tc.;~1 eedcxa ,ive ' Tc~ ary to chao;je betwfstn s thp, Cas trq lone lest )pis Y.4 re Castro t pf its ai, ibbean. vet, many :he if to dq with the pol t:ital. hnology, medicine ;td wprld in the 2pth I ~'nturq rying degrees. all the material Power. Approved For Release 2008/11/20: CIA-RDP86M00886R001400120007-0 Approved For Release 2008/11/20: CIA-RDP86M00886R001400120007-0 United Nations Statistical Yearbooks International organizations clearly show were much better off than Nicaraguans, Co or the people in the two countries of His examples will demonstrate this. It is mo Cuba with Costa Rica and the Dominican Re states have had long periods of democrati market economic policies. Cuba in 1958 had about 5.3 times as ~ Rica and about 2:3 times as many as the D However, the Cubans had 170,000 telephone telephone Costa Rica and 9 times more th Republic. Cubans travelled around their island 1958, on 7,000 km of paved roads. Costa less than 10% of the Cuban figure, and le roads, even though Costa Rica is less tha Cuba. Television was also readily availably days. There were 500,000 T.V.'s in Cuba,' 6,000 in the Dominican Republic. In fact six times as many televi;lion receivers as inhabitants of eight oth;rr Caribbean natii Castro has also made many grandiose health care, especially for the poorest p again, it is important to see what Castro what the trends were in 1958. The year bi that Cuba had about 6,400 doctors, more tl ten years earlier. Costa Rica had only 379 Doctors irk 1 Republic had fewer than ?00 (in 1954). 1 that Cuba was already well ahead of its n, lute numbers of physicians and the ratio inhabitants. This undoubtedly accounts in part fo lower death rates in Cuba, as compared to Dominican Republic. Interestingly enough dropped substantially in the latter two c in Cuba the drop was less than one per th Castro resorted to an outright fabri for lowering the infant mortality rate. Castroism-is that it is responsible for 1 mortality rate from 60 per thousand to 19 reality is less impressive. When Castro came to power, the rate but 32 per thousand. Lowering this rate a?,3 other sources fxom h,~t the people of iAba j r;ins, to Ricans,, Salvado a pla. a few t Useful to coipar uplic since these ppliticst and free aAy people as Cost mi}aican F,epubl is . 13 times as finanl n the Douinican i,j 159,0C.0 cars i ip.ans haci 15,000 q s than 15,% of the j alf the; size of in. the Fire-Castro c npared with only the Cub4,ns had at, did6the 1,9 million ns. ,Fs, ,aved laims abciut improi~ell ople of C;uba. Onq`e had to w4}rk with nt3 fore the; U.N. ret rteO, aq double; the num ,r of 57 and tt;e Domini hat this means is ighbors moth in a~ f doctor;, to the subEEtantiall Costa Rica and th the death rates untrieg k!y 1972, usartd. atiGn to claim su art of the legend werj,ng the infant per thousand. Th as r>,ot 6(p per tho}; to 19, which, by cess of sand he Approved For Release 2008/11/20: CIA-RDP86M00886R001400120007-0 Approved For Release 2008/11/20: CIA-RDP86M00886R001400120007-0 way, is Castro's figure and not that of organization, is far less an accomplishm 19. n (.nc~epenient heali nt than gping from t;t I,0 trp In the first eleven years of Castro actually rose to 38 per thousand. Durin Costa Rica and the Dominican Republic, t stantially. What becomes clear from the. Castro inherited an infant mortality rat several developed states (Germany, Italy than anywhere else in Latin America; and worsening of this rate was virtually uni area. This is, no doubt, why Castro misre he came to power. What is puzzling is t and impartial observers would accept Cas looking into it more closely. Castro is praised by some observers expectancy up to 70 years, certainly a r true. But once again, Fidel began with of his neighbors. Life expectancy in Cu compared to 61 in Costa Rica and only 49 Republic. By 1975 it had risen to 69.5, Costa R15a's rise was also 12% and the D to 18%. I astro's "achievement " therefore, as no better tan sp ; Nowevr-r, the r (ibis same period i rape dr,ppped sub e figures is ?; rsti~ that. jjpwer than thpt c apd Spain) and fa setcoad, that the ue ip the Car bbe4 resetted the rate at sp many knowlec ro's figure wjthot fpF jpringing Life s jectable figure, i gher figure the i,;i the Dominican fjpg An increase o m,lpican Republ,ic ent up fe Nfora Viable most 620 ;128. h democratic Costa Rica's and not as drama i,r as the Dominic Republic's. More to the point, life exp ci ncy has been increasing in most states not at war bec u, a. of better ned .fines and health care. This has little to do itb the ppliti,cal structure. Finally, there remains the question Castro's and his apologists' most grandi area and they are frequently used as jus totalitarianism policies. Castro inheri literacy rates in Latin America and a we society. (Literacy is usually higher in rural areas.) of literacy. Son s,r c1 aims are in i ?icatioi, for his Pf ,~s In fact, the literacy rate in 1958 was largely due to the trend toward urba alization.' Castro's "success" has been with remaining pockets of illiteracy. E unalloyed blessing, since Castro's liter heavy dose of Marxist-Laninist indoctrin spelling 'lessons. eq one of the higt,e,pt 1 '-advancg,d urban urban areas than 11 is as about 78%. ization 4lnd industjri- si,mp.y ill doing ahay en this i,s not an JI cy p.rogr4lm include s a tjon, along with t~~e Approved For Release 2008/11/20: CIA-RDP86M00886R001400120007-0 Approved For Release 2008/11/20: CIA-RDP86M00886R001400120007-0 Arrested Development - Cuba an Others Since 1959 We have seen that in 1959 Cuba was neighbors in numbers of telephones, cars infant mortality and literacy. The impr however, have been far less dramatic tha had Communist governments or huge Soviet and the Dominican Republic are prime exa By 1961, both Cuba and the Dominica from long periods of traditional dictato Battista in Cuba and Omar Trujillo in th However, the Dominican Ygpublic was in t far ahead of its televisions, doc vements Mince 195 in statels that h subsides., Costa pies, of t=his. Qrs, , , ve nc , ica Republic; were emoirginc1 ship, th4lt of Fulc`encic, Dominicsn Republic. rrit~le economic s4lape One c:, f the easiest ways to gauge a ngmie adlranceRent looking at the Gross National Product (G1 for v4Erious co{ over a period of time. To see how this rgwt:.h hag beer, dij tributed, the most useful figure is GNP er Gapit4F. In 1982, the World Bank stopped prof idix 9 specifics es- for Cuban GNP per capitp, but it;iat the figure between $880 - 1,110. Costa Rica, even With the ifinancial difficulties it faced in 1981, managed $1,430. The Dominican Republic's figur it in the middle range of Caribbean sta 4 P per capiti, of %!4s $1,21?0, wt-Mich ie;. ? .s by nt.ri*tei j,mate,i is puts Even more significant than the raw fig;ures a;e th?; grj~wth rates for these three states. From 1960-1%8l, bol;h the Co{;ta Rican economy and that of the Dominican Republic brew by ai annual percentage of 3%. This is a hea t1py. rise, consider, that the world underwent two severe oil s~-;pp~y sh-?cks Cturix those years. n.g 9 Cuba, with its centralized and bureaukpratic comic planning, had a static GNP during those s5,ne year, . It difficult to conceive a state's GNP not g4pincj up 'hen one-1 t?arte of that GNP is provided in the form of s;ibsidy. t;,e performance of the Cuban economy has ben A genuir;ie disappi, i,nt- ment when compared to free enterprise sates,, Cuba's relative position on GNP pe capita a#pong .ts j tin American neighbors was high before the ompunist takeover. In 1952, for example, only Venezuela and A gent:ina h.Ad higher (;NPs per capita than Cuba. By 1981, only Ve ezue.a, Uraguay, Argentina,. Chile, Mexico, Brazil, Pana , Paraguay, Costa Colombia, the Dominican Rep blic Ecuado , Pe4-u an-l Guatema could make the same claim., 124 By 1976, the number of telephones 'n Cuba alpost doub ie;d, although the number of telephones per c p;ita dropped. In the Dominican Republic the number of teleph nees rin 1977 was alb gst -7 times the 1958 figure. 15In Costa Rica, 1hgpre were more tha, 10 Approved For Release 2008/11/20: CIA-RDP86M00886R001400120007-0 Approved For Release 2008/11/20: CIA-RDP86M00886R001400120007-0 Since 1958, the number of passenger cgrs in C;;iba was cilt in half by 1976. In the Dominican Republic thee we.fg 7. tip e's a;s many cars and Costa Rica's number went u 4 times. These; two countries showed spectacular progress in aj;t:a~ning teleyisi, r,; receivers (over a 2000%;i ncrease). Cast otis ;increAse fi:om 5160 to 1977 was a mere 1.3% Another indicator of development is the number of peop e, pe,f physician. The Dominican Republic went rc?t over 7,000 peolA.e for each doctor in 1957 to less than 2,0(0 i,n 1973. Cotta improved its ratio from 2,700 to 1 to 1, 041 tg 1 during the period. In Cuba, which receives so much ct;edit for i_mp:ovi health care, the ratio, while lower than thedemocratic sta actually rosg8slightly from 1960 to 1976 (}::ono, 1,020 to I t h}lye raised this li e;r parcentage than gla, 73 years, but ep i;- 1960. Since d or exceeded the! uch As Haiti, Soli Hand in hand with improved medical are is infant Iaort~ %~;ity. As we have seen, Castro managed to make hpt xate go up, wh rh i,5 quite a negative achievement. During th ; m!a, period 0959, x;9701 substantially higher infant mortality rateq :LA the Domin ~a; ? Finally, after 1972-73, the Cuban infant 11no tftlity rate begf~n to drop, and currently stands at a respecta2le, but not a surprising, 19 per thougand. Finally, most Latin American states expectancy of their populations by a hig has. Cuba's life expectancy figure is h also higher than most Latin American sta sixteen of Castro's neighbors have match improvement, , cluding very poor states and Hondu r :i s . Conclusion What all this means is that Castro Iias actually arrest . development that Cuba underwent during t~e 1940s and 1950s. Other Caribbean states, with considerabl 1959, and without a huge Soviet subsidy, in addressing their economic difficultie have surpassed Cuba in absolute figures. the improvement has been far greater. Even more importantly, Costa Rica a have achieved this without prison camps executions, political prisoners, massive sive political system that stifles all f sent. In-the meantime, the Cuban econom. dependent on sugar and on a huge Soviet future Castro has to offer his Third War This repudiates the rather bizarre freedom and economic progress are incomp is any example, stifling political and c less to work ,ith h,~ye made great st . In sore cases, Ian virtually Aver d the Dominica i Re extensive, convict emigration, or a r r,ns of pcliticaal d ,,- as groin cornplette,Ly usidy. This is t d imxtatcrs. i,ca dame c e. s , Cuba J; was +;hen, ban ;I. a t3 the :k n .ides :11ey case ublic Tibor, , preS- otion tha,t somehow] ti,ble. If Castro' Cuba vii free4,oms do nqt Approved For Release 2008/11/20: CIA-RDP86M00886R001400120007-0 Approved For Release 2008/11/20: CIA-RDP86M00886R001400120007-0 produce a trade off in greater economic Cuban people, 25 years of Castro has mea become a Soviet colony And their sons be Even if Castro did provide economic reasonable person contend that these exc oppression that he has also inflicted on Freedom of speech, religion, assembly, d the birthright of all men, whether they developed state-or an underdeveloped Thi The idea that the people of Cuba sh this birthright for subsidized medical?c almost indicates elitism and racism. However, Castro continues to receiv North Americans for his grandiose claims avant-guarde thinkers used to praise Hit "getting their countries moving again." we will li!arn that Castro has also made Endnotes evelopmer;t. For ta t seeing their lard ope Soviet proxy rpop;f. benefits,, can any se the Cgmmunist the people of Cub4 ? is5eqt, and the prg ss are, ive in a prospero};s d Wq,rld .5tate. uid be walling toy are is appslli4g, Isell Ad hic,b pr;Eise from r;ugb the same wad e; and Mussolini Ferlps before to, the 1 rain:i run on 1. Fernando del Paso, writing in El Proceso~r a Mt.xicj weekly magazine, 7 May 1984 pp. 36-39. 2. !taiti and the Dominican Republic 3. Many of these figures are take from the study: qr 1 oncl tme. "Comparative Developments in the Caribbears," by Norman Luxlinburcl, This particular figure is from the Latiri Amierica Statis tics i Yearbook 1981, Chapter IV. 4. United Nations Statistical Yearbook: 1962, Table 5. Ibid., 1960, Table 138 and Latin 4anericaj3 Stat:i`st c: 1 Yearbook 1977 p. 290 6. United Nations Statistical Yea 7. ibid., 1958 Table 176 8. Statistical Abstract for Latin 10. United Nations World Population 1977, Vol. I Table 75 1 11 11. Cuban Census of 1953, United Nations Statisti