INTELLIGENCE ALERT MEMORANDUM: POSSIBLE COUP IN PORTUGAL

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP86T00608R000200020002-7
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 3
• Document Creation Date: December 9, 2016
• Document Release Date: January 19, 1999
• Sequence Number: 2
• Publication Date: January 25, 1975
• Content Type: MEMO

I A, U, AM GV4 6fr. se 200010 144 IFF SP I TpB608R000200020002-7 Y;
Po-ssib~le ~oup,~ ~~in P6rtu"l-bril~ +~an 75
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TU E DIRECTOR OF CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE NIO 3U `f - 7t r
25 January 1975
lllR:\i~ D i1,1 rh ,. 1}1'' onor.ible Henry A. i:1 sslago r
Assistant to the President 4
(National Security Affairs)
SUBJECT Intelligence Alert Memorandum: Possible
Coup in Portugal
1. ti'le have received a r,urlber of signs that a potentially
v:iolcnt contest for power is shaping Up next week in. Lisbun.
25X1X6 2.
a co-_lp is planned either for
28 or 29 January. Although the plot reportedly is being
coordinated with the Portuguese Communist_ Party, the Party 25X6A
intends to remain in the background and action w i l.l. be in the
hands of the leftist members of the Armed Forces Novelnent. The
plan has allegedly been
and involves the arrest: of key moderates in the /rile Forces
;?lovement.
The ability of the :intended victims. to proven
a successful coup is one of the major uncertainties.
25X1X6
3. TI t recent wrangle over the .labor law has aggravated
deep divisions b tll coil Model-at- and le ti.st elements within
the Armed forces although tale Communists won that
bcl.'ttle, t!1 t:1"e '.5 considerable evidence that the cost was high
and that the moderates expected the AFM to give thont the next
victory-. It is conceivable that the Communists have already
concluded that the victor': was a pyrrhic one, that their
fortunes have peaked, and that they had best move decisivQ.ly
now to prevent erosion of their position and. block a reaction.
Approved For Release 2000/09/14: CIA-RDP86T00608R000200020002-7
 ? SECRET
Approved For Release 2000/0$lMIT PIA-Rp886T0 gR000200020002-7
4. The Lisbon press announced today that the Communists,
in coordination with other leftist groups, are planning street
demonstrations on January 31 in support of the Movement's
'fight to combat big business. The Socialist Party had
previously scheduled a rally on the same day and a clash
between these two could b oaden into a more
serious conflict is a live possibility. We have,one report
t1,at th, Coruaunis ts planned their demonstration to prevent
or offset r' ,C!
Socialists from 5howin the letter's greater
popularity. It is also possible, however, that the Communist
plan is to provide a smokescreen for the intended coup described
above.
S. Given the circumstances, the chances for a preemptive
coup from the right or by the inten1ccd victims have also
increased. We have received several. reports in recent months
that circles connecter? with Spinola were planning such an
action but their lack of support within the Armed Forces
Movement made their chances of success bleak. We are alert
to the prospect that rightists are circulating stories of
leftist coup attempts which they will use as a pretext to
take action themselves.
25X1A6a
6. 1'. take this report seriously enough to alert 'ou
now, though we cannot at the mor.;er~_t confirm it. 25X1DOa
MIeanlyhile, we are preparing a
5X1DOa pore comprehensive assess ?rt on Portugal, which will. address
this and other aspects, r:h ,ii T:e will forward early next week.
in the interim, any significant spot reporting will he For-
lw:arded directly.
7. J.