IMPACT OF PARTITION ON THE POPULATION AND ECONOMY OF CYPRUS

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP86T00608R000200230003-3
• Release Decision: RIFPUB
• Original Classification: C
• Document Page Count: 12
• Document Creation Date: November 11, 2016
• Document Release Date: July 7, 1999
• Sequence Number: 3
• Publication Date: August 1, 1974
• Content Type: REPORT

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1 I~
PACs OF PARTITION ON THE POPULATION
AND ECONOMY OP CYPRUS
f,'IA/BGI RP 75-3
AUGUST 1974
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22 August 1974
OBGI/GD/S
PN 63.2116/2
IMPACT OF PARTITION
ON THE POPULATION AND ECONOMY OF CYPRUS
Introduction
This paper assesses the impact of permanent Turkish
control of the northern part of Cyprus on the population
and economy of the island. The data are presented
for a partition along the so-called Attila line, as
proposed by Turkey in Geneva earlier this month.
The line coincides roughly with the 1964 boundary
proposed by the Turkish Cypriot Communal Chamber,
and runs from Kokkino, in the Northwest, via Xerarkaka
(south of Lefka), Akaki, Nicosia, Angastina and Prestio,
to Famagusta in the East.
Summary
Partition would bring drastic changes to the population
patterns and economy of the island. The impact on
the Greek Cypriot community would be particularly
adverse. The area north of the Attila line is approximately
1170 square miles, roughly one-third of the area of
Cyprus. It includes a principal copper mining region
in the Morphou Bay area, many of the best tourist
resorts of the island, the whole of the highly-developed
agricultural Morphou plain, all of the perennial
springs in the Kyrenia mountain range (three of which
are located near Kythrea and Lathos and according
to Greek claims -- are the best on the island), most
of the irrigated plain of Eastern Messaoria, large
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areas of citrus groves in the Serrakhis river valley
and west of the walled town of Famagusta, large forest
areas in the Kyrenia Range, and Famagusta itself,
the tI d largest port. The Greek controlled area,
although retaining a sizeable portion of the fertile
Messaorian plain, will contain a'high proportion of
uncultivable mountainous and forested terrain (the
Troodos Mountain Complex).
Partition Impact on the Population
Partition of the island and the anticipated segregation
of Greek Cypriots and Turkish Cypriots into separate
areas would require moving a considerable part of
the population. Based on 1972 population estimates,
this would amount to moving into th,;e northern area
some 51,800 Turks (44.6% of total Turkish Cypriot
population), and moving out of this area some 147,500
Greeks (29.3% of total Greek Cypriot population).
Such movements would involve shifting some 39,800
families and would significantly alter the population
density in each of the ethnic areas. According to
Greek claims, the density of population in the Turkish-
held area would drop from 185 to 76.9 persons per
square.mile, while that of the Greek area would rise
from 181 to 202.6 persons per square mile.
Table 1.
Population Profile of Cyprus*
Overall Population:
1972
Greek
503,100
(78%)
Turkish
116,100
(18%)
Armenians, Maronites, British and misc.
2
5,800
6
114%%)
Average population density
181 per sq. mile
Population of Area North of the Attila lines:
Greek
147,500
(67.7%)
Turkish
64,300
(29.5%)
Others
6,000
2.8%
217,300
(100.0%)
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Table 1 continued
Population of Important Urban Centers in the Northern Area:
,
,
,
,
reeks
,
4
,
800
o
th
ers
Nicgsia
Turkish ~Sector 27,400
Greek Sector 72,600 Greeks
10,500 others
Total 110,5U-0
* Based on 1972 estimates and data of the last detailed census (1960).
Partition Impact on Land Ownership
Partition would necessitate some compensation for
Greek privately owned lands in Northern Cyprus, as well
as land exchange. The Greeks own more land in the north
than Turks iwn in the south. Turkish views on land ownership
differed widely from that of the Greek-oriented government
of Archbishop Makarios. According to Markarios, the
Turkish community owned only about 16 percent of land
in Cyprus in 1964, a claim which differed sharply with
data contained in the 1960 Census of Population and Agriculture,
which shows 20.4 percent of the total agricultural land
in Turkish hands. The Turkish Ccmmunal Chamber in Nicosia,
on the other hand, places Turkish ownership of arable
land at 30 percent. It contends that Greek officials
in the 1960 Census deliberately underestimated the area
of agricultural land by some 33,060 acres in order to
under-reflect Turkish owned land. Turkish officials
also maintain that the census was taken on the basis
of race of the then tenant-farmer, and not of ownership
of the land. Thus, much of Turkish-owned land leased
to Greek farmers was allegedly reflected as Greek holding.
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Morphou :
7,480
Kyrenia :
4,183
Lefka :
5,400
Famagusta: 39
400
(120 Turks, 7,360 Greeks)
1,383 Turks, 2,800 Greeks)
Turks, no Greeks)
6
900 Turks
27
700 G
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According to Turkish views (expressed in 1964),
the exchange of land would not alter the 3:7 Turkish--
to-Greek proportion of land ownership and the amount
of compensation to Greeks would be very small for
the following reasons:
"(1) [The amount of] Turkish-owned land in the northern part of the
Island (i.e. Lefka and Tylliria areas, northeastern
part of Famagusta district, and the northeastern part of
Nicosia district) is high compared to Greek-
owned land:
(2) in the Karpas peninsula there are about 49,500 acres
of state-owned minor forests, and a considerable
part of the Tylliria region and the Kyrenia district
is occupied by state main forests;
(3) ... there is more or less sufficient Turkish-owned
land in the South to offset the ".and which Greek
farmers will relinquish in the north; and
(4) the Turkish lands in the South are situated
in the most fertile valleys in the Island and moreover
have abundant perennial irrigation and much potential
underground water resources."
Partition Impact on the Economy
Agriculture
Cyprus is basically an agricultural country,
in which about 47% of the land is cultivated. It
is estimated that approximately 36% of the economically
active population is engaged in farming and other
agricultural activities and that 50 *z, of the total
population depends at least in part on incomes derived
from agriculture. The broad and fertile Messaorian
plain, sandwiched between the Kyrenia Mountains to
the north and the Troodos Mountains to the south,
contains the bulk of-the island's cultivable lands.
Its principal crops are wheat, barley, vegetables
(potatoes), and citrus fruits. Extensive irrigation
in the area is required during the summer dry season
when rainfall is less than 1 inch per month.
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Partition of the Messaonian plain, commonly referred to
as the bread basket of Cyprus, places within Turkish
control some 37 percent of all croplands in the area
but provides Turkish Cypriots with more than half
of the highly valued irrigated crop lands and over
half of the areas under wheat cultivation.
In addition, Turks would own two thirds of
the best citrus growing areas in Cyprus. These include
the orange and grapefruit groves in the Famagusta
and Morphou areas and the lemon orchards near Karavas
a
Cyprus' nd Lapithos in Kyrenia. Citrus fruits represent
million most s1970. Turkish pcontrolled dCyat US
prus also includes
the second best potato growing region on the island
(the area extending along the Nicosia-Norphou road),
and approximately half of the carob and olive producing
areas. The value of potato exports -- mostly to the
United Kingdor; -- reached almost US $16 million in
1970 compared with less than $5 million in 1960.
The area of cultivable croplands in the Messaorian
plain that is now under control of each group is shown
in Table 2.
Forestry.
Cyprus' timber resources provide only 30A of
the island's timber requirements. The northern area
contains some 197 square miles of timber, or about
29.4% of all state and privately-owned forests; it
produces roughly ene-third of the island's timber
output. Forest divisions included in the Turkish
area are:
Forests
Korno-I(yparissavouno and Buffavento Group
18
22
Patho Group
.
10.00
Halevga and Koronia Group
41
55
Akradhes Group
.
16.01
Apostolos Andreas Group
20
45
Salamis Group
.
2.24
Kormakiti-Ayia Irini Group
20
12
Minor and Private Forests
.
68.38
'Area (Square miles)
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Mini ng
Turkey's occupation of the Morphou Bay area
brings within its control the U.S.-owned Cyprus Mines
Corporation (C4C), the island's largest copper producing
company. The CMC extracts copper-mainly from open
pit operations at Apliki and Skouriotissa and the
Mavrovouni underground mine. Its copper mine output
in 1970 totalled some 18,000 metric tons, a considerable
drop from its high of 32,000 metric tons in 1960,
and it will undoubtedly decline further unless additional
capital equipment is invested. Greek-controlled territory
will retain important copper mines at Limni in the
northwestern part of the island (owned by the Cyprus
Sulphur and Copper Co. Ltd), and the Kalavasos mines
northeast of Limassol (owned by the Hellenic Mining
Co. Ltd.) Their total export of copper concentrates
reached some 45,000 tons in 1968. Greeks will also
retain control of all iron pyrites, asbestos, and
chrome mining operations concentrated in the Troodos
mountains region. Export figures for 1968 place iron
pyrites at 798,990 tons, asbestos at 17,700 tons,
and chromite at 23,591 tons.
Industry
In the long run, this branch of the economy will
be least affected by partition of the island. Apart
from the mines, there is no heavy industry in Cyprus.
manufacturing is limited mainly to light industries
engaged in processing local products, both for home
consumption and export, such as the wineries and the
carob processing plants. Light industry is concentrated
mainly around the capital city of Nicosia and in the
main port cities of Limassol, Famagusta, and Larnaca.
Most of the industry is in the Greek-controlled area.
Tourism
Greek-controlled Cyprus would retain many of
the tourist and ski attractions, particularly in the
Troodos mountains (Platres, Prodhromos, Troodos, Moutoullas,
etc) and along the beaches of the southern and western
coastal lowlands. Assuming that the city of Famagusta
would be divided, coastal resorts in suburban Varosha
-7-' .
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would remain in Greek Cypriot hands. Tourism normally
concentrated in Kyrenia and the northern coastal resorts
will fall into Turkish hands. Loss of Kyrenia tourist
trade is particularly distressing to Greek Cypriots
because of its flourishing, Greek-owned luxury hotel
business. 1yrenia and Famagusta (both in the Turkish
area) and Nicosia together accounted for 82% of the
tourist night accomodations in 1970.
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