EUROPEAN BRIEF 126-75.Y

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP86T00608R000300010028-9
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 13
• Document Creation Date: December 19, 2016
• Document Release Date: June 14, 2005
• Sequence Number: 28
• Publication Date: August 13, 1975
• Content Type: CABLE

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1 . PORTUGAL: DISSIDENT OFFICERS IN THE PORTUGUESE ARMED FORCES
MOVEMENT APPARENTLY USED A MEETING OF THE REVOLUTIONARY
COUNCIL ON TUESDAY TO PRESENT PRESIDENT COSTA GOMES LiITH iH :Cl;
DEMANDS FOR THE REMOVAL OF PRIME MINISTER GONCALVES. LIE
HAVE NO INFORMATION YET ON THE OUTCOME OF THE MEETING-1i
NAVY COMMANDER CRESPO-ONE OF THE NENE DISSIDENTS WHOSE
NAME HAS BEEN MENTIONED AS A POSSIBLE REPLACEMENT FOR
CONCALVES-TOLD WESTERN DIPLOMATS AT A LUNCHEON ON TUESDAY
THAI IF THE PRESIDENT DOES NOT RESPOND TO THE DISSIDENTS'
DEi1A IDS, "'JUST WAIT A LEr--K.^ THIS IS THE FIRST INDICATION
THAT THE DISSIDENTS MIGHT CONSIDER USING FORCE TO REMOVE
GONNCALVES, ALTHOUGH CRESPO SAID REPEATEDLY THE GROUP IS
DETERMINED TO AVOID FORCE IF AT ALL POSSIBLE . `r'
CI;ESPO CONFIRMED THAT SECURITY CHIEF O T ELO DE CARVAL'-10,
A =Y TO CONTROL. OF THE 33CEST DTSI:IPI.!,J_D Ti OOPS TN THE ARi17D
FORC S, DEFINITELY SLPPOi2 TS THE DISSIDE:PJ i a ? THE NAVY COili'I~~,JJ)
SAID THE DISSIDENTS HAD THE D ACKING Oi- AT LEAST +;;'.l ;~c_i~Ccil'I
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Or THE MILITARY ? Y
OTHER REPORTING INDICATES THAT SENTIMENT IN THE ARMED
FORCES IS RUNNING HEAVILY IN FAVOR OF THE DISSIDENTS' MANIFESTO.
THE COi"!M;\INDO REGIMENT OUTSIDE LISWON HAS VOQD IN r,\VJib OF
THE DOCUMENT, AND ITS COMMANDER, COLONEL NEVES, INDICATED
THAT VOTING BY UNITS IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MILITARY
REGIONS, INCLUDING LISBON, SHOOED THAT 90 PERCENT FAVORED THE
ANTI-REGIME DOCUMENT. NEVES SAID HE TOO EXPECTS SOME FIGHTING
IF BASIC CHANGES ARE NOT !'LADE IN THE GOVERNMENT WITHIN A WEEK.Y
IN HIS LUNCHEON REMARKS ON TUESDAY, COMMANDER CRESPO
REMARKED THAT HE RESENTED BEING CALLED A "MODERATE,"
PREFERRING THE TERM "REVOLUTIONARY-" CRESPO POINTED OUT
THAT HE BELIEVES MOST ENTERPRISES SHOULD BE OWNED BY THE
STATE AND THAT IT IS INAPPROPRIATE FOR PORTUGAL TO REMAIN AN
ACTIVE MEMBER OF NATO. CRESPO ARGUED THAT PORTUGAL.' S PR iNCIPAL
GOAL WAS TO SERVE AS A BRIDGE BETWEEN EUROPE AND AFRICA. FO;;i1cJ
FOREIGN MINISTER ANTt,NES HAS LONG BEEN THE knAD.; NG EXPONENT
OF A THIRD-WORLD ORIENTATION LN PORTUGUESE FOREIGN POLICY, 'Y
U4rc:
ORIG:
UN!T:
FAT:
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? ~.PA ..I?:1 011.1 'M C:. (l++f~lhnllh?:. tIFf~Gr~rS turlr_ ~r1C'.\Y:?~~'~'. LF4
rt.t -nn..h r:mo::i1CiioN BY MAR THAN mH 13SUING OFFICE IS 1':-2OHIyITE.U .. '> ,;?"t?,'1 ='j"
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//CRESPO STATED THAT HIS VIEWS ON NATO DID NOT EXTEND
TO BILATERAL MILITARY ARRANGEMENTS WITH INDIVIDUAL NATO
MEMBERS. HE SAID SUCH ARRANGEMENTS-INCLUDING THE US PRESENCE
AT LAu...S AIR BASE IN 1'HE A020-ARE BENEFICIAL TO PON FUGAL 1/- '.'
TROOPS WERE PLACED GA ALERT TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE SOUTHERN
TOWN OF EVORA, WHERE THE SOCIALISTS AND COMMUNISTS STAGED
DEMONSTRATIONS- MILITARY POLICE, HOWEVER, PREVENTED ANY
u
VIOLENCE &
THE SOCIALISTS RALLIED 'A'30U T 3,000 SYMPATHIZERS TO
DEMONSTRATE SUPPORT FOR THE COMi1AN.DER OF THE SOUTHERN MILITARY
REGION HEADQUARTERED THERE. THE COMMANDER IS A LEADING MEMBER OF
THE DISSIDENT FACTI0? THE COMMUNISTS, TRADITIONALLY STRONG IN
THE SJUTH, DREW APPROXI1ATELT THE SAME NUMOER OF DEMONSTRATORS
FOR THEIR COUNTER-RALLY. THE SOCIALISTS, MEANWHILE, ARE LENDING
THEIR SUPPORT TO THE CHURCH-SPONSORED CELEBRATION IN FATIMA TODAY,
WHICH is EXPFZTED T& BE TKE SCENE OF CONITNUED CKTICISN OF k':-.
GOVERNMENT
,:ATE:
O MG:
ti;fiT:
Ex 1' :
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] ARGENTJ, A: WORSENING ECONOMIC CONDITIONS ARE WEAKEN1146
THE ABILITY OP '14P ARGENTINE LABOR LEADERS TO CONTROL THEIR RANK
AND FILE- WOKKI:';CS ARE ALREADY CRITICAL OF THEIR LEADERS' COMPROMISES
WITH THE GOVERIUMCNT ? Y
ARGENTINA'S DEEPENING RECESSION+ WHICH IS ACCOMPANIED 9Y
DECLINING DEMAND IN THE FACE OF DRASTICALLY INCREASED PRICES, IS
WIPING OUT THOUSANDS OF JOBS. THE US EMBASSY NOTES A SHARP UPSURGE
IN THE NUMBER OF WORKERS &AID OFF THIS MONTH, AND A NUMBER OF FIRMS
HAVE SEEN FORCED TO CURTAIL OR CEASE OPERATIONS BECAUSE THEY CANNOT
PAY SAGE INCREASES RECENTLY WON BY LIR8O .Y
THE AUTOMOBILE INDUSTRY HAS BEEN PARTICULARLY HARD HIT. THE
ARGENTINE SUBSIDIARY OF THE FORD MOTOR COMPANY REPORTEDLY IS CON-
SIDERING A MONTH-LONG SHUTDOWN THAT WOULD IDLE SOME 3,000 VORP:ERS?Y
THE DEEPENING ECONOMIC CRISIS CANNOT FAIL TO AGGRAVATE THE
MBOD OF WORKERS. MANY OF WHOM--DESPITE SIZABLE WAGE HIKES AND UNION
ORDERS TO RETURN TO WORK--CONTINUE TO PROTEST STEEPLY RISING PRICES.
AS UNEMPLOYMENT GROWS, WORKER DISCONTENT IS LIKELY TO BE TRANSLATED
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INTO CALLS FOR MASS ACTION AND MORE WIDESPREAD STRIKES. INDEED,
STSTE AND LOCAL GOVERNMENT WORKERS ARE THREATENING TO STRIKE IF THEIR
3DO--PERCENT WAGE HIKE IS NOT INCREASE-1?\'
THE TUO MOST IMPORTANT LEADERS OF "'~:RONI ST LABOR. LORENZO MIGUEL
AND CASILDO :IERRERAS, ARE EAGER TO AVOID A DIRECT CLAS11 KITH THE
GOVERNMENT. MIGUEL WENT OUT OF HIS WAY TO SIDE VITH THE GOVERNMENT
AS I r SOUGHT, UNSUCCESSFULLY9 TO RESIST A RECENT CHALLENGE TO ITS
REMAIw iNG AU i 1!ORITY. MIGUEL CORRECTLY INTERPRETS DEFIANCE OF
PRESIDENT "ARIA ESTELA PERON--TITULAR HEAD OF THE LABOR-BASED
PERONIST MOVEMENT--AS AN ATTACK ON THE CONCEPT OF LABOR DISCI.-..INE. AND
THUS A THREAT TO HIS OWN POSITION?Y
IN AN EFFORT TO JUSTIFY HIS DEFENSE OF THE GOVERNMENT AND RE-
BUILD WORKER SUPPORT, MIGUEL HAS ISSUED A STRONGLY WORDED DOCUMENT
ATTRIBUTING THE NATIONSS ILLS TO IMPERIALISM ON THE RIGHT AND
TERRORISM ON THE LEFT. Y
THE PROSPECT OF AN INCREASINGLY UNRULY LABOR MOVEMENT IS
PARTICULARLY DISQUIETING TO THE ARMED FORCES, WHICH WANT If ALL
COST TO AVOID A SITUATION THAT WOULD REQUIRE THEM TO STEP IN OPENLY
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AND UN THE COUNTRY- Y
LEADERS OF THE MAJOR POLITICAL PARTIES ARE CONCERNED THAT,
HAVING COOPCRATED WITH LABOR IN THE EFFORT TO OUST LOPEZ REGA,
THEY MAY NOW BE LOSIN6 OUT TO LABOR .''3 THEIR DID TO REGAIN A VOICE
IN NAT72MAL DECISION-MAKING ? Y
AEANWHILE PRESS REPORTS INDICATE THAT PERONIST ECONOMIST
ANTONIO CAFIERO HAS AGREED TO BECOME MINISTER OF ECON013Y, COMPLETING
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THE CABINET REORGANIZATION BEGUN ON MONDAY. CAFIERO MILL BE TAE
FIFTH INCUMBENT WITHIN A YEAR IN THIS DIFFICULT POST.
2. //MEXICO: MEXICO REPORTEDLY WILL SIGN AN AGREEMENT WITH
THE COUNCIL OOR MUTUAL ECONOMIC ASSISTANCE (CEt'IA} WITHIN THE N:XT
FEW DAYS THAT COULD SUBSTANTIALLY STRENGTHEN AND FORMALIZE ITS TIES
WITH THE SOVIET-DOMINATED ECONOMIC ORGANIZATION?V/Y
//THE AUEEfENT WILL BE CONCLUDED DURING A VISOT TO MOSCO J THAV
BEGAN ON AUCUST 11 BY MEXICAN FOREIGN MINISTER RABASA, WITH EXECUTIVE
DIRECTOR FA.DDEYEV SIGNING FOR CEMA? ALTHOUGH IT IS NOT EXPECTED THAT
MEXICO WILL SE GRANTED OBSERVER STATUS, SIMILAR TO THAT HELD BY
YUGOSLAVIA, YT VILL PROBABLY BE PERMITTED TO BECOfIE AN OBSERVER ON
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SEVERAL CEMA PER?1AMENT COMMISSIONS, PARTICULARLY THOSE CONCERNED WITH
ENERGY. THE AGREEr!NT PROBABLY WILL ALSO PROVIDE FAR A JOINT ECONOMIC
COMMISSION WITH SEVERAL SUBSTANTIVE SUBCOMMITTEES.//Y
//IN ADDITION TO T?9E CEMA AGREEMENT-- MOSCOW REPORTEDLY MAY
ALSO AGREE TO ASSUME A MEXICAN COMMITMENT FOR THE DELIVERY OR OIL TO
A EUROPEAN CUSTOMER, IN RETURN FOR INCREASED SHIPMENTS OF MEXICAN
OIL TO CUBA. THIS WILL SERVE TO REDUCE SIPPING EXPENSES FOR BOTH
PARTIES AND WILL NECESSITATE BILATERAL DISCUSSOINS TO COMPENSATE
MEXICO FOR ITS HIGHER QUALITY OIL.//V
//THE CEMA ACCORD ITSELF WILL PROBABLY INVOLVE MORE APPEARANCE
THAN SUBSTANCE. FOR MEXICO, IT WILL REPRESENT EVIDENCE OF PRESIDENT
ECHEVERRIA'S SUCCESS IT 114CREASING ILLS COUNTRY'S ECONOMIC INDEPENDENCE
IN AN AREA LONG EOMIQATED BY THE US- POLITICALLY, THE MOVE IS
CONSISTENT WITH ECHEVERRIA' S DESIRE TO BROADEN MEXICO'S TIES WITH AS
MANLY NATIONS AS POSSIBLE AND TO PROMOTE HIS PERSONAL AMBITION TO
BECOME THE NEXT UN SECRETARY GENERAL.//V
//MOSCOW HAS LONG SOUGHT TO IMPROVE RELATIONS OETYEEN CEMA AND
NONMEMBER NATIONSt BUT SO FAR HAS ONLY SUCCEEDED IN REACHING
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COOPERATION AGREEMENTS WITH FINLAND AND IRIAt. AN ACCORD WITH MEXICO
RAISES THE POSSIBILITY THAT OTHER COUNTRIES WILL FOLLOW. MEXICO
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WILL BECOME THE SECOND NATION IN THE WESTERN HEMISPHERE--FOLLOVING
CUBA--TO ESTABLISH FORMAL TIES WITH CEMA.
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1. KOREA: PYONGYANG ON MONDAY PROPOSED A DRAFT UN RESOLUTION
WHOSE EMPHASIS ON MAINTAINING PEACE IN KOREA SHOULD ENHANCE
ITS PROSPECTS FOR GENERAL ASSEMBLY APPROVAL.`
LAST YEAR, THE NORTH KOREANS CAME WITHIN ONE VOTE OF
PASSING A RESOLUTION CALLING FOR THE WITHDRAWAL OF ALL
"FOREIGN FORCES UNDER THE UN FLAG." THIS YEAR, PYONGYANG'S
DRAFT REITERATES THE DEMAND FOR A TROOP WITHDRAWAL, CALLS
FOR A PEACE TREATY BETWEEN THE "REAL PARTIES" CONCERNED TO
REPLACE THE KOREAN ARMISTICE AGREEMENT, AND INCLUDES SEVERAL
OTHER PROVISIONS OSTENSIBLY AIMED AT REDUCING TLNSIONS ON THE
PENISULA.Y
IN A SUPPORTING STATEMENT, PYONGYANG ASSERTED THAT
ENDING THE UN COMMAND WOULD END THE ARMISTICE AS WELL. I/BY
PROPOSING A PEACE TREATY TO REPLACE THE ARMISTICE, THE NORTH
KOREANS STRONGLY IMPLY THAT THEY WILL DEAL ONLY WITH THE US,
NOT :SOUTH KOREA, WHICH THEY DO NOT CONSIDER A SOVEREIGN
STATE.//Y
DATE:
094:
UNIT:
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//THE US HAS OFTEN SAID THAT IT WILL NOT CONCLUDE A
TREATY WITH PYONGYANG WITHOUT BRINGING SEOUL INTO THE
NEGOTIATIONS .//THE P?^-SEOUL RESOLUTION, ALREADY MADE PUBLIC-,
AGREES TO THE T ERMI:JATION OF THE UiJ COMMAND IN SOUTH
PROVIDED THAT SOME AGREEMENT CAN BE REACHED ON MAINTAINING THE
ARMISTICE MACHINERY.Y
A COMPROMISE APPEARS REMOTE, AND THE TWO COMPETING
RESOLUTIONS WILL ALMOST CE;'? T A,INLY BE VOTED ON IN THE
GENERAL ASSEMBLY. SOUTH KOREA'S SUPPORTERS HILL PROBABLY
SUCCEED THIS FALL, AS THEY DID LAST, IN PASSING THE PRO-SEOUL
DRAFTY
GIVEN THE CLOSE VOTE LAST' YEAR, PYONGYANG'S CONTINUING
DIPLOMATIC GAINS, AND THE NORTH'S NEW FORMULATION, PYOiN1GYr4NG'4 ' S
RESOLUTION MAY VERY !JELL ALSO PASS THIS FALL.// THE PASSAGE O,=
I :7
THE PRO - NORTH KOREA RESOLUTION U ULD NOT LEGALLY BIN
D T11-
US TO WITHDRAW FORCES; I T : OIJLD *,1ON`: T 1-IELESS BE PR OCL A ' IEDI
BY TH NORTH AS A +` SING DIPLM.:TTC 'P 0;,J TO T I'IE I.J:; T; 11
KOR':AN POSITION
D A T
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MIDDLE EAST AFRICA BRIEF 126-75-M
NOTHING TO REPORT. -E-2 IMPDET.d
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