EUROPEAN BRIEF 142-75.4

Document Type: 
Collection: 
Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 
CIA-RDP86T00608R000300010044-1
Release Decision: 
RIPPUB
Original Classification: 
S
Document Page Count: 
24
Document Creation Date: 
December 12, 2016
Document Release Date: 
February 21, 2001
Sequence Number: 
44
Case Number: 
Publication Date: 
September 12, 1975
Content Type: 
CABLE
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PDF icon CIA-RDP86T00608R000300010044-1.pdf920.62 KB
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App?oved for Release 2001/08/29 : C1A-R4P86TOOS08R000300010044=1 Approved For Release 2001/08/21 : CIA-RDP86T00608R00030001Qe044-1 4r? No Fo: cigni Dissem Sec:ret Approved For Release 2001/08/21 : CIA-RDP86T00608R000300010044-1 r~c~ile6o~/P2 : CIA-Re S IGNALCGNTCN USG ONLY 8 TO0608R 91000-10044='il OMF 1J 0 0 0 0 0 0 SECRET NO FOREIGN DISSEPI 0 INDEX DISSEM BY: 0 NO INDEX 0 R!'TUfINTO PER EUROPEAN BRIEF 142-?5.Y 1. PORTUGAL: PORTUGUESE PRESIDENT COSTA GOMES AND THE NEXT PRIME MINISTER, ADMIRAL AZEVEDO, ARE TRYING TO OVERCOME THE LATEST OBSTACLE TO FORMING A NEW GOVERNMENT: THE COMMUNIST REFUSAL TO COOPERATE.Y THE MILITARY LEADERS, REPORTEDLY INCLUDING MAJOR MELO ANTUNES, HAVE CONTINUED NEGOTIATIONS WITH REPRESENTATIVES OF THE SOCIALIST, COMMUNIST, AND POPULAR DEMOCRATIC PARTIES TOWARD FORMING A "NATIONAL UNTTY^ GOVERNMENT- THEY WANT- TO AVOID A FORMAL COALITION AGREEMENT BUT TO ATTRACT ENOUGH SUPPORT AND PA,'.TICIPATION FROM CIVILIANS TO GIVE THE IJEW GOVERNMENT A CHANCE OF DEALING EFFECTIVELY WITH PORTUGAL'S GROWING ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL PROBLEMS. THEIF TASK HAS BEEN GREATLY COMPLICATED, HOWEVER, SINCE THE COMMUNISTS LAUNCHED A? HARSH PROPAGANDA CAMPAIGN AGAINST THE CENTER-LEFT POPULAR DEMOCRATS- THE COMMUNISTS CAMPAIGN APPEARS TO BE A STALLING TACTIC DESIGNED TO GET THEM BETTER TERMS FOR JOINING THE GOVERN;".ENT.Y SOCIALIST LEADER MARIO SOARES HAS REPORTEDLY BEEN ASKED TO DATE: ORIG: UNIT: EXT: N WA T NO OFFICER RYLEA5fNO/AppfLTi.tJved For Release 200 fm 'f2 lN? CPA!RDP86T00608R000300diTdb -1 CLASSIFICATION ^ ~ REPRODUCTION BY u-.;TER THAN THE ISSUING OFFICE IS PROHIBITED E 2 I MPDET CL BY: Tdd @J ilea3~ &AGE CIA-R[~111~8 2 5 T00608R00 3 -OQ1.0044.-1 I ^ NO INDEX UETUIIN TO PER HELP OVERCOME THE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE COMMUNISTS AND THE POPULAR DEMOCRATS.Y A POPULAR DEMOCRATIC PARTY SAID ON THURSDAY THAT AZEVEEDO, COSTA GOMES, AND THE ANTUHES FACTION HAD AGREED TO THE CONDITIONS OF HIS PARTY AND THE SOCIALISTS FOR JOINING THE GOVERNMENT. MILITARY LEADERS MET TWICE ON THURSDAY WITH THE COMMUNISTS AND THE SOCIALISTS; THE COMMUNISTS APPARENTLY WERE PUTTING UP STIFF RESISTANCE TO THE CONDITIONS OF THE OTHER TWO PARTIES. THE POPULAR DEMOCRATIC SOURCE SAID, HOWEVER, THAT HE THOUGHT THAT THE COMMUNISTS WOULD EVENTUALLY AGREE TO ENTER THE GOVERNMENTS' COSTA GOMES ALSO PRESIDED OVER A MEETING OF THE REVOLUTIONARY COUNCIL ON THURSDAY, PRESUMABLY TO DISCUSS THE NEW GOVERNMENT, EFFORTS BY PRO-COMMUNISTS TO STIR UP TROUBLE IN THE MILITARY, AND THE UNFAVORABLE REACTION TO THE DECREE LAW IT PASSED ON MONDAY RESTRICTING PUBLICATION OF THE MILITARY'S POLITICAL VIEWS.Y NOT ONLY HAVE THE PRESS, RADIO, AND TELEVISION CRITICIZED DATE: ORIG: UNIT: EXT: nELEASINDApproved For Release 200i~00/tB+1'^toBRDP86T00608R0003000410044,L IN? url-1 -1 cLA5s0.icArloN REPRODUCTION BY OTHER THAN THE ISSUING OFFICE IS PROHIBITED E 2 IMPDET QpJv bNFQIease &?AF2f- CIA-RD 51GN AL. C4.NTr!rI USE ONLY ?OE CO) A:. TOO TYE MOO OMF 0 0 0 C 0 0 D SECRET NO FOREIGN' DISSEM D INDEX DISSEM BY: 0 NCI INOF+I 0 flh'rURN rV PER 0 IF NILE. THE DECREE LAW AS AN ABRIDGEMENT OF PRESS FREEDOM, BUT SOME IN THE MEDIA HAVE EVEN DISOBEYED IT. A MEETING CALLED BY JOURNALISTS TO FIGHT THE NEW LAW WAS HELD ON THURSDAY AT THE LEFTIST INDEPENDENT DAILY A CAPITAL.Y ON THE ISLAND OF MADEIRA, MEANWHILE, A SERIOUS THREAT TO LISBON'S AUTHORITY APPEARS TO BE GATHERING STEAI'l. ON WEDNESDAY, THE INDEPENDENCE MOVEMENT THERE THREATENED TO EXPEL FROM THE ISLAND ANYONE OPPOSED TO INDEPENDENCE UNLESS THEY DECLARED THEIR SUPPORT BY MIDNIGHT, SEPTEMBER 17. THE LIST OF EXPELLEES INCLUDES THE CHIEF OF STAFF OF THE PORTUGUESE FORCES IN MADEIRA, ALL rONTINENTAL OFFICERS STATIONED THERE, AND ALL COMMUNIST PARTY MEMBERS. {CONFIDENTIAL}4' 2. PORTUGAL-AZORES: GAINS BY THE ANTI-COMMUNIST FORCES IN PORTUGAL, COUPLED WITH IMPROVED PROSPECTS FOR LOCAL AUTONOMY, NOW SEEM TO HAVE LESSENED THE LIKELIHOOD OF AN ARMED REBELLION IN THE AZORES.Y THE INDEPENDENCE MOVEMENT HAS BEEN SPURRED ON PRINCIPALLY ? BY FEARS OF THE POLITICALLY CONSERVATIVE AZOREAi'JS THAT A COMMUNIST DATE: ORIG: UNIT: EXT: ~,,p,@ F TCA ORIClH RELEASI"App13ved For Release 2001=1211TI'oCrA`-f bP86T00608R0003000ibU4: -iINO C:LASSIA CATIC)'1 REPRODUCTION BY OTHER THAN THE ISSUING OFFICE IS PROHIBITED E 2 IMPDET CL BY: Ap M19 hit 111010?08190 ~CIA-RDP 91GNAL C.ENTTN UOIF ONLY AOe COI ..c,' -00 OMF 0' 0 0 0 0 0 0 ~T00608ROOc3bp0I0044 1--' I.----- -------- Q certiN TO PER I~ IPPILLi ^r TAKE-OVER IN LISBON WOULD LEAD TO COMMUNIST DOMINATION OF THE ISLANDS THEMSELVES. IN RECENT WEEKS, LOCAL COMMUNISTS HAVE BEEN PHYSICALLY ATTACKED AND THEIR PROPERTY HAS BEEN DESTROYED. SOME HAVE EVEN BEEN DEPORTED, OSTENSIBLY FOR THEIR OWN SAFETY.Y ASIDE FROM THE ANTI-COMMUNIST SENTIMENT, OTHER FACTORS FUELING THE INDEPENDENCE DRIVE HAVE BEEN THE AZOREANS' DESIRE FOR GREATER AUTONOMY, ECONOMIC INEQUITIES BETWEEN THE ISLANDS AND PORTUGAL, AND A LACK OF UNDERSTANDING OF AZOREAN PROBLEMS SUCH TRADITIONAL DISCONTENT COULD BE SUBSTANTIALLY OVERCOME IF THE RECENTLY FORMED GOVERNING JUNTA, MADE UP OF PROMINENT AZOREANS, IS ALLOWED TO FUNCTION WITHOUT UNDUE INTERFERENCE FROM THE MAINLAND. THE JUNTA, WHICH IS HEADED BY THE LOCALLY POPULAR AND POLITICALLY SKILLFUL MILITARY GOVERNOR, GENERAL ALTINO DE MAGALHAIES, HAS BEEN ASKED TO SET UP A NEW PERMANENT GOVERNMENT FOR THE ARCHIPELAGO. IT HAS BEEN GIVEN A GENEROUS BUDGET, WHICH SHOULD EFFECTIVELY HELP TO COUNTERACT CHARGES OF ECONOMIC NEGLECT. ?'CONFIDENTIAL}Y DATE: ORIG: UNIT: EXT: ApL tASIVO F.ICEA IN, E 1 ATNO OFFICER Approved For Release 200'f1da1A'1 : fffi -F~DP8600608R000300d'~Tjb4a-1 CLASSIFICA-ION REPRODUCT;ON BY OTHER THAN THE ISSUING OFFICE IS PROHI9ITED E 2 INIPDET CL DY: CA r~+~~~-~tele 81~b1}~r~b~ : CIA-F &P 6I0.0fQ&Rd O C I l ' SIGNAL CENTER USE ONLY 0- Ac! col ?c. T:.J irr u;.o 0 OMF n 0 0 0 0 0 0 SECRET NO FOREIGN DISSEi1 1 000-1.0.044-1--/. 1--.--- ---- 0 INncX DISSEM BY: 0 NO INC.FX 0 IIEtURNTO PER 0 II' FILES 3. USSR-UN: MOSCOW HAS ANNOUNCED THAT ITS ANNUAL SHOWCASE DISARMAMENT PROPOSAL FOR THE UNITED NATIONS GENERAL ASSEMBLY THIS YEAR WILL TAKE THE FORM OF A DRAFT TREATY BANNING ALL TESTINL OF NUCLEAR, WEAPONS. ONE 'ET PURPOSE OF TAE EXERCISE IS TO EMBARRASS THE CHINESE.' AS WITH PREVIOUS SOVIET PROPOSALS, MOSCOW AVOIDS MAKING ANY SIGNIFICANT CONCESSIONS. ALL NUCLEAR WEAPONS TESTS WOULD BE BANNED, AND VERIFICATION OF COMPLIANCE WOULD BE BY "NATIONAL TECHNICAL MEANS" RATHER THAN Eh AN INTERNATIONAL-BODY- EXEMPTED FROM THE BAN WOULD BE "PEACEFUL" UNDERGROUND NUCLEAR EXPLOSIONS. STATES WITHOUT NUCLEAR WEAPONS COULD CONDUCT "PEACEFUL" EXPLOSIONS AS PROVIDED IN THE NUCLEAR NON-PROLIFERATION TREATY, WHILE NUCLEAR WEAPONS STATES WOULD NEGOTIATE A NEW ACCORD TO COVER THEIR ACTIVITIES- THE TREATY WOULD-NOT COME INTO EFFECT UNTIL ALL NUCLEAR WEAPONS STATES, INCLUDING CHINA AND FRANCE, HAD AGREED. FURTHERMORE, IT WOULD HAVE NO TIME LIMIT; ANY SIGNATORY WOULD BE ABLE TO WITHDRAW IF IT FELT THE TREATY CONFLICTED WITH ITS "HIGHER INTERESTS."Y DATE: ORIG: UNIT: EXT: LKA9,,.AIpproved For Release 200VO8/ t,? VAERDP86T00608R0003000Y'T00i44" IG O?f ICER CL?SSIFICATON REPRODUCTION BY OTHER THAN THE ISSUING OFFICE IS PROHIBITED E 2 I;r1PDET AqIPdV PdQA4eaW CIA-Rd SECRET NO FOREIGN DISSEM qDA6 --- 0rr OA1OD44-1I I -' ---- U INDEX DISSEM BY: D NO INDEX 0 nFTunN TO PER 0 mm" 'r -1 MOSCOW OBVIOUSLY IS FOLLOWING THE SAME PROPAGANDA ROUTE IT TOOK WITH PROPOSALS FOR A WORLD DISARMAMENT CONFERENCE {1971}, A PERMANENT BAN ON THE USE OF NUCLEAR WEAPONS {1972}, A REDUCTION OF MILITARY B!.IDGETS {11973}, AND BANS ON ENVJ:RONMENTAL MODIFICATION {1974}. ITS LACK OF CONSULTATION WITH THE OTHER NUCLEAR STATES BEFORE ANNOUNCING ITS LATEST PROPOSAL AND THE FOREORDAINED OPPOSITION. OF CHINA AND FRANCE SHOW THAT MOSCOW EXPECTS NO SERIOUS NEGOTIATIONS ON THE SUBJECT. {CONFIDENTIAL}Y 4. USSR: THE REGIME HAS RECENTLY REMOVED.A LOOPHOLE FROM THE SO-CALLED "PARASITE" LAW, WHICH WILL FA- CILITATE CONVICTION OF PERSONS DEEMED TO HAVE NO STEADY EMPLOYMENT. THE PRACTICAL EFFECT OF THE CHANGE REMAINS TO BE SEEN; THE "PARASITE" LAW IS BUT ONE OF AN ARRAY OF MEASURES USED TO CONTROL THE TROUBLESOME DISSIDENT AND NON-DISSIDENT FRINGES OF SOVIET SOCIETY--AND MOST OF THESE MEASURES ARE AP- PLIED ARBITRARILY. PLUGGING THE LOOPHOLE, HOWEVER., DOES IMPROVE THE CREDIBILITY OF THE LEGAL THREAT, DATE: ORIG: UNIT: EXT: nELEAy1NOA Vfoved For Release 200`P/ BT2'f'4 'I'A-fPDP86T00608R0003000,TMT4-I" ?"ICED CLASSI.ICATION REPRODUCTION EV OTHER THAN THE ISSUING OFFICE IS PROHIBITED E 2 ;uODpi' Ap9r U a "' gaseP~Ahle 1/ -ECIA-RDP OO6e8ROOO N I A CI OMF 0 U 0 0 0 0 0 AND COULD THUS BE A;JOTHER IN A SCN'Ti S OF MEASURES DESIGNED--AMONG OTHER THINGS--TO DISCOURAGE SOVIET CITIZENS FROM APPLYING FOR EMIGRATION. THOSE WHO DO APPLY ROUTINELY LOSE THEIR JOBS.4' THE NEW LAW, PUBLISHED ON AUGUST III, ALTERS ARTICLE 209 OF THE RUSSIAN REPUBLIC'S CRIMINAL CODE BY ADDING A PROVISION THAT ANY PERSON "LEADING A PARASITICAL WAY OF LIFE F Oi? A PROLONGED PERIOD OF TIMER IS LIABLE TO A O1JE YEAf SENTENCE IN JAIL OR LABOR CAMP. THE NET EFFECT OF THIS PROVISI(ii'J, TO- GETHER WITH SOME EARLIER CHANGES IN THE LANGUAGE OF THE RELEVANT ARTICLE, IS THAT PERSONS CHARGED WITH PARASITISM CAN NO LONGER TAKE REFUGE IN THE FAILURE OF THE PROSECUTION TO DEMONSTRATE WILLFUL REFUSAL OF AN ORDER TO ACCEPT WORK ASSIGNMENTS. MANY SUCH PERSONS OFTEN ACCEPTED ASSIGNED JOBS FOR A SHORT TIME AND THEN QUIT, THUS BUYING TIME BE- FORE REPEAT;rNG THE CYCLE . Y DATE: ORIG: UNIT: EXT: 0044= I? -: * :..~. ^ INDOX DISSEM BY: 0 110 INDEX ^ FIETUNN TO PER y~g P AU711riy"I /. AI'1 yf. f.~Flf:lH P1LEAA)5j Yf,}5 ed For Release 2001 /d'gl2`lNAZII.IH-Ffti5P86T0PP48RRO99g10044-1 CLASSIFICAI!nN REPRODUCTION E OTHER THAN THE ISSUING OFFI S h 0 I E IMPDl CL BY: ApgMTegWWAas&1AAJ?bA2 _CIA-RDP1 6 -00608ROO h ' L SIGNAL CENTEf USE ONLY O IF DISCOURAGEMENT OF EMIGRATION APPLICATIONS IS INDEED ONE OF THE NEW LAW'S GOALS, IT MAY GO HAND IN HAND WITH THE LEGISLATION PUBLISHED IN MAY THAT IMPOSED A HTGH=R TAX ON CASH REMITTANCES FROM ABROAD {STAFF NOTES JULY 31. THE LATTER LAW, EFFECTIVE NEXT JANUAi'.Y 1, A?PEARS DESIGNED TO REDUCE THE NET AMOUNT OF EXTERNAL FINANCIAL SUPPORT RECEIVED BY DISSIDENTS, ACTIVjTSTS, AND OTHERS-- MOSTLY JEWS--IJHOSE APPLICATION FOR EMIGRATION HAVE RESULTED IN LOSS 011 EMPLOYMENT. THE RECENT AMEND- MENT TO THE "PARASITE" LAW MAY THUS BE ANOTHER SEG- MENT OF THE LEGAL CIRCLE BEING DRAWN AROUND THESE ELEMENTS OF SOVIET SOCIETY. {CONFIDENTIAL}Y DATE: ORIG: UNIT: EXT: P!LE ASIN O.AApproved PICF. For Release 2001IN72TIh6C:fd / CPbP86T00608R0003000iUdU44 T CA-ING O??1.:P.P '~ CLAS31.ICaT10N REPRODUCTION BY OTHER THAN THE ISSUING OFFICE IS PROHIBITED M o 39601-9044-1 - Ap9prove~Fb~ elease l00'f /2'I'~IA-RDI~ OGO8ROU0 0100 44- I N ':It:NAI_Cf NTEN U3E Ohl_V AGV I.01 Az/ TOG T.L -0 OC. PAOfl OP VA:. 01W 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 ,'"~- y], ^ INOEx DISSEM BY- 0 NO INOKx n ',J {IETU-N TO PER 1, /'. BULGARIA: BULGARIAN PREMIER STANKO TODOROV'S NATIONAL DAY SPEECH ON MONDAY REAFFIRMED SOFIA'S AUTHORITAR- IAN APPROACH TO DOMESTIC POI_.ICY. IT ALSO PROVIDED THE FIRST PUBLIC INDICATION OF CONCERN OVER THE STATE OF' THE ECONOMY . Y ADDRESSING A GROUP OF HIGH-LEVEL PARTY AND GOV- ERNMENT OFFICIALS, TODOROV BEGAN WITH THE USUAL OBEISANCE TO THE SOVIETS AND NDICATED SOFIA WOULD CONTINUE TO FOLLOW IN MOSCOW'S FOOTSTEPS?Y TODOROV NEVERTHELESS SHOWED SOME SENSITIVITY TO THE DISSATISFACTION OF BULGARIAN NATIONALISTS WITH THE REGIME'S SLAVISHLY PRO-SOVIET STANCE, STATING THAT CURRENT POLICIES ARE "NO NEGATION OF THE 13-CENTURY HISTORY OF THE BULGARIAN STATE." HE ALSO IMPLIED THAT THE BULGARIAN PAR'T'Y HAD SOLVED SOME OF ITS SPECIAL PROBLEMS WITHOUT SOVIET ASSISTANCE.Y TODOROV DEVOTED THr MAIN PART OF HIS ADDRESS, DATE: 0RIG: UNIT: EXT: CLASSIiICATION Approve ~ p Ne gy2q,I'yp> /Aj ?- 1 Q.010 4,,1 1 ~1PDE' CL 8Y: Approved For kle ase W /2i : A-RDP SIGNAL CENTEN USF ONLY ?G! COI AC. TOG TPx ;;g08fl8R0003pgt 10044---.t: --..I-' n --- ------ 0 1"Drx DISSEM ?Y: 0 NO IND&X 0 AETVON To PER HOWEVER, TO A LESS-THAN-ROSY ECONOMIC FORECAST. HE PLACES AT LEAST PARTIAL BLAME ON WESTERN INFLATION, WHICH SOFIA HAS HERETOFORE MAINTAINED DID NOT AFFECT ITS DOMESTIC ECONOMY. TODOROV FAILED TO MENTION THE IMPACT OF HIGHER SOVIET PRICES FOR RAW MATERIALS, ESPECIALLY OIL. BULGAF'IA IS THE ONLY EAST EUROPEAN COUNTRY THAT HAS NOT ANNOUNCED THE PRICE HIKES WHICH TOOK EFFECT IN JANUARY, BUT SOME SPOKESMEN HAVE PRIVATELY PROFESSED NOT TO bE. CONCERNED OVER ANY. POSSIBLE REPERCUSSIONS.Y TODOROV AGAIN CALLED FOR GREATER DISCIPLINE IN ORDER TO INCREASE LABOR PRODUCTIVITY AND SUSTAIN A HIGH RATE OF ECONOMIC GROWTH. THE REGIME WILL CON- TINUE ITS CAMPAIGN TO INCREASE SHIFT IJORK TO COMPENSATE FOR THE FIVE-DAY WORKWEEK. HE ALSO CONFIRMED THAT HIGH-LEVEL PERSONNE!_. CHANGES OVER THE PAST FEU MONTHS WERE MADE TO IMPROVE ECONOMIC EFFICIENCY AND PLANNING. ALTHOUGH PRAISING RECENT SUCCESSES, TODOROV ADDED DATE: ORIG: UNIT: EXT: ?AS5.1..,,. Approve o g!~ ~s~~41~ ~{ ,~y ~?1-sRs~Qi~%TA26q8~a~ 010044- I A DEr CL F Y: Ap ~c 'F~~I~ase MlO 'h- 'EIA-RD fi f}698Rfl00 QOj01_0fl44=1. SIGNALCENTFF1 USE ONLY AO COI Ar.P t.io TPE y?O Dcl .OMF 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 SECRET NO FOREIGN DISSEM 12- 0 I.,DPN DISSEM BY: 0 NO INDex 0 N61UNN To PER THAT SOME PERENNIALLY WEAK SECTORS, SUCH AS HOUSING AND CONSUMER SERVICES, CONTINUE TO BE A "SERIOUS CAUSE OF CONCERN AND ALARM."'' THE PREMIER HAD 0 T H~`' 3AD ;r-'JS FOR THE CONSUMER HE STATED THAT "EXAGGERATED CONSUMER ASPIRATIONS AND PETTY BOURGEOIS ATTITUDES DO NOT BECOME SOCIALISM"-- WORDS THAT SURELY WILL. NOT BE MET WITH ENTHUSIASM. TODOROV MAY BE PREPARING THE PUBLIC FOR A SLOWDOWN IN THE GROWTH OF CONSUMER GOODS AND FOR POSSIBLE- CONSUMER PRICE RISES.' TOAOROV PRAISED SOFIA'S "DYNAMIC FOREIGN POLICY" AND SAID THAT THE PERSONAL CONTRIBUTION OF PARTY-STATE LEADER ZHIVKOV HAS "ENHANCED THE PRESTIGE OF OUR COUNTRY." ON BULGARIAN-YUGOSLAV RELATIONS-, TODOROV'S REMARKS WERE CONCILIATORY. HE SINGLED OUT ZHIVKOV'S TALKS WITH YUGOSLAV PRESIDENT TITO AT THE HELSINKI SUMMIT, NOTING THEY WOULD LEAD TO INCREASED BILATERAL COOPERATION. {CO;IIFIDE;-?1 TI AL} E-2 IMPDET.rd DATE: ORIG: UNIT: EXT: V AUTNEN?ICATINC?OuPICF7 L if5Vdd For Release 2001/0 571f t V Fib-P t5` 86TQ0 01,R000300fl10044.-IZ 1 7 L'lA9 sIwCA'ICV REPRODUCTI0V BY OTHER THAW THE I5 SU VG Orr I 3 11 1 A A r. r.rwe Pr e.~ce /17Q/TI' IADF .5 L AAI.`ARQAAA AAAAAAAA A -71U NA1. CPNTPII U'.1I ONLY FECRET NO FOREIGN DISSEM EAST ASIA BRIEF 142-75.4' LAOS: THE COMMUNISTS ARE STEPPING UP THE PRESSURE AGAINST PRIME MINISTER SOUVANNA PHOUMA AND KING SAVANG. THE TWO CLEARLY HAVE NO PLACE IN THE COMMUNIST STATE THAT HAS BEEN DEVELOPING IN LAOS SINCE LAST SPRING. THE PATHET !LAO UP TO NOW, HOWEVER, HAVE TREATED BOTH THE MONARCHY AND SOUVANNA, THEA SYMBOL OF "COALITION" RULE, WITH CIRCUMSPECTION, PERHAPS OUT OF CONCERN THAT ANY EARLY OR ABRUPT MOVES MIGHT NEEDLESSLY DAMAGE THE LAO COMMUNIST REPUTATION ABROAD AND EVEN PROVOKE SOMt INTERNAL OPPOSITION. IN ANY CASE, IT NOW SEEMS LIKELY THAT BOTH SOUVANNA AND THE KING WILL BE FORCED FROM THEIR POSTS BY NEXT SPRING IF THEY HAVE NOT RESIGNED EARLIER.' IN A BROADCAST ON SEPTEMBER 9, PATHET LAO - CONTROLLED RADIO VIENTIANE REPORTED THAT IN AN INTERVIEW WITh AN AFP CORRESPONDENT, PRIME MINISTER SOUVANNA PHOUMA STATED HE WOULD NOT E JOT"JTNG A NEW GOVERNMENT FOLLOWING THE "GENERAL ELECTIONS" SCHEDULED FOi APRIL 1- 1'976. SOUVANNA INDICATED THAT HE WOULD RATHER RETIRE AND ADVISE HIS "YOUNGER SUCCESSORS-"41 DATE: JRIG: UN IT: EXT: RFLEA71N0 ~.,: ~dFA[N I\ INO n? I G 1 A O OPPICER CL ;;I.ACA-SON Appro .gI ,4~ru OFFICE IS PRO 0 BITo0d'~ E~~2- LIiSSUG ~N IMPDET AWM + d d leasWlaflQA79$YRJ CIA-R 86 00608R00 3 0010044- SIGNAL Ct.NTEN U.-",1? ONLY AOn COI C. TOO 11 /1 M/ib 0 0 0 0 0 0 ~LCP.ET NO FOREIGN DISSEM NO INDEX MITNNN TO PER SOUVANNA SEVERAL TIMES IN THE PAST PAS INDICATED TO FOREIGN NEWSMEN THAT HE WOULD RETIRE AFTER THE GENERAL ELECTIONS, BUT HIS REMARKS RECEIVED LITTLE NOTICE IN THE GOVERNMENT MEDIA. BY REPLAYING RITHIS LATEST INTERVIEW, THE COMMUNISTS PRESUMABLY HOPE TO MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR HIM NOT TO CARRY OUT HIS PROMISE.Y SOUVANNA ALMOST CERTAINLY H)PES THAT HIS HALF BROTHER SOUPHANOUVONG WILL BE THE NEXT PRIME MINISTER. HE MAINTAINS THAT SOUPHANOUVONG IS MORE OF A "NATIONALIST" THAN A COMMUNIST. THE PATHET LAO, HOWEVER, HAVE OFFERED FEW HINTS ON THEIR CHOCIE. THE SELECTION IN ANY CASE WILL HAVE LITTLE SIGNIFICANCE, BECAUSE REAL POWER WILL REST, AS IT DOES NOW, WITH THE LAO COMMUNIST PARRTY HEADED BY KAYSONE PHOMVIHAN.Y THE COMMUNISTS HAVE ALSO BEGUN TO WHITTLE AWAY AT THE PFLSTIGE OF KING SAVANG IN AN APPARENT EFFORT TO FORCE HIS EARLY ABDICATION OR PERHAPS Si:AP THE INSTITUTION OF THE MONARCHY ALTOGETHER. AT A RECENT FESTTVAL IN LUANG PRABANG, THE ROYAL CAPITAL, FOR EXAMPLE, THE COMMUNISTS.CUT BACK ON SOME OF THE FORMALITIES DESIGNED TO PAY HOMAGE TO THE KING AND ELIMINATED HIS TRADITIONAL DATE: ORIG: UNI'r: EXT! RELE^51N11Approved For Release 20G4408,ti?,1,-o F3g76SCDP86TOO608R000300DId)0 t OPFICER RE-PRODUCTION BY OTHER THAN THE ISSUING OFFICE IS PROHIBITED E 2 IMPDET CLRY- OUTGOING MESSAGE Approved For Release 2001/08/21 : CIA-Rd $1T00606R0 03 -0610044-1 l:I Ci NAl. Cf. 71'!!R VSE ONLY ~ INuex DISSEM BY: NO INuRX RLTUVIN TO PER 0 !r rILE9 -INTERVIEWS WITH THE DIPLOMATIC CORPS. {SECRLT}. E-2 IMPDET.rI 25X1A UNIT: OCI FLO EXI: 1945 Appro RFo9rUF4MWo,Qa +lgl AEgi oiQ -QQ?4QFAQAA@001 041-1 IMPOET CL BY: 010725 A'erd Q1-as6f0A1 CIA-RD $ 00.608R00_fl~0010044-1 SIGNAL GI:NTf R U[:@ ONLY OMF rJ 0 0 SECRET NO FOREIGN DISSEM ME.LCE ? %Ot r? 1O IhCT CAT OH OA'E- 't OPOUP 0 INOVX DISSEM BY: 0 NO INDEX 0 RFTUHN ro PER MIDDLE EAST AFRICA BRIEF 142-75.Y 1. LERBANON: LEBANESE ARMY UNITS MOVED INTO POSITION BETWEEN TRIPOLI AND ZAGHARTA EARLY ON THURSDAY, EFFECTIVELY ENDING CIVIL UNREST IN NORTHERN LEBANON. A FEW LEFTIST AND MUSLIM POLITICIANS IN TRIPOLI HAVE CRITICIZED THE CABINET'S DECISION TO BRING IN THE ARMY, BUT THE MAJORITY OF MUSLIMS AND CHRISTIANS IN THE AREA APPEAR TO HAVE WELCOMED IT-9 THE COUNTRY'S MAIN MUSLIM POLITICAL LEADERS, WHO RESIDE IN BEIRUT AND ORDINARILY OPPOSE ANY USE OF THE ARMY FOR INTERNAL SECURITY PURPOSES, HAVE SO FAR WITHHELD COMMENT. THIS IS PARTLY OUT OF DEFERENCE TO KARAMI, WHO HEADS ONE IMPORTANT SUNNI MUSLIM FACTION, BUT IT ALSO REFLECTS THEIR ADMIRATION FOR THE CONCESSIONS HE HAS BEEN ABLE TO WRING FROM LEBANON'S CONSERVATIVE CHRISTIAN LEADERS.Y THE CABINET YESTERDAY APPROVED A BILL REORGANIZING THE ARMY TO ESTABLISH THE "COMMAND COUNCIL" PROPOSED BY KARAMI IN A POLICY SPEECH LAST MONTH. ALTHOUGH NO DETAILS HAVE BEEN MADE PUBLIC, THE COUNCIL PRESUMABLY WOULD INCLUDE REPRESENTATIVES DATE: ORIG: UNIT: EXT: PE LF? :I Approved For Release 2001MP21T'tcCrA,=RDP86TOO608R00030001bPY441-1t,NG OFPIG f.P Apr r Veh 'P&) kd se hhh1'A(~ VAA-RDP$6t(~ N III _:IGNAL CrNTI!R U!:C ONLY C.OI ACu T(OO TI'F, M11O 0 0 0 0 SECRET NO FOREIGN DISSEI1 0 INDEX DISSEM BY: 0 NO INDEX 0 uEr'RN TO PER OF LEBANON'S MAJOR RELIGIOUS SECTS AND HAVE THE FINAL WORD ON SUCH MATTERS AS ARMY DEPLOYMENTS AND PROMOTIONS. LOSS OF THESE PREROGATIVES WOULD SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE THE POWER OF THE ARMY COMMAINDER, WHO BY CUSTOM IS ALWAYS A MARONITE CHRISTIAtN.Y CHRISTIAN GROUPS IN PARLIAMENT HAVE IN THE PAST STRONGLY OPPOSED PROPOSALS TO REORGANIZE THE ARMY. KARAMI'S POSITION HAS BEEN STRENGTHENED CONSIDERABLY BY HIS HANDLING OF THE CURRENT CRISIS, HOWEVER, AND HIS PFCPOSALS MAY NOW WIN GREATER BACKING FROM CENTRIST CHRISTIAN POLITICIANS HOPING TO AVVID ANOTHER ROUND OF VIOLENCE.Y IN RETURN FOR THEIR SUPPORT FOR THE GOVERNMENT, MUSLIM LEADERS APPARENTLY ARE DEMANDING ALSO THAT THE CHRISTIANS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE KILLING OF 12 MUSLIMS ON THE TRIPOLI-BEIRUT HIGHWAY LAST SUNDAY BE TURNED OVER TO AUTHORITIES. CHRISTIAN LEADERS SO FAR HAVE REFUSED TO MEET THIS DEMAND.Y LEFTIST LEADERS WHO FOLLOW KAMAL JUMBLATT, HEAD OF THE PROGRESSIVE SOCIALIST PARTY, MET ON THURSDAY AND REPORTEDLY WILL ASSEMBLE AGAIN TODAY TO CONSIDER THEIR REACTION TO THE DATE: ORIG: UNIT: EXT: N''."A5MArS bved For Release 2001IMP21"'a lA-RDP86T00608R0003000tOO LINO OFFICER "A"''" REPRODUCTION BY OTHER THAN THE ISSUING OFFICE IS PROHIBITED E 2 1MPDET CL BY: OMF 0 ApggTeg F`b~'Re`leas~ 70A~8~T1' CIA-RDQ i 0080 3,0~6fl?r0044.1 -t-, - --- l SECRET NO FOREIGN DISSEM AAE 61AG4 , ?. ?? C UI O ICAro;l CA F?T-4E G40LP 0 INNFP DISSEM @Y: 0 NO INOtlx 9 IIEn,"N TO PER 0 IP FILL 'I iY GOVERNMENT MOVE. THEY HAVE PROMISED A FORMAL POLICY STATEMENT, WHICH PROBABLY WILL BE CRITICAL BUT WILL FALL SHORT OF ADVOCATING ARMED RESISTANCE-4' ZIJHAYR MUHSIN, HEAD OF THE SYRIAN-CONTROLLED SAIC2A FEDAYEEN GROUP AND THE PALESTINE LIBERATION ORGANIZATION MILITARY DEPARTMENT, ANNOUNCED YESTERDAY THAT THE PALESTINIANS HAVE NO OBJECTION TO THE GOVE1'NMENT'S USE OF THE ARMY. THE DECISION TO DO SO, HE SAID, IS A "PURELY DOMESTIC QUESTION."Y LEBANESE AND PALESTINIAN RADICALS BACKED BY- IRAQ HAVE, CALLED FOR A GENERAL STRIKE ON MONDAY TO PROTEST DEPLOYMENT OF THE ARMY. THEIR CALL IS NOT LIKED' TO BE HEEDED, HOWEVER, UNLESS THE CONTINUING CABINET TALKS ON ARMY REFORM BREAK DOWN. -CCONFIDENTIALTY 2. ETHIOPIA: ADDIS ABABA AND ASMARA ARE REPORTED TO BE TENSE AS THE ETHIOPIAN PROVISIONAL MILITARY GOVERNMENT PREPARES FOR THE CELEBRATION ON SEPTEMBER 13 OF THE FIRST ANNIVERSARY OF ITS OUSTER OF EMPEROR HAILE SELASSIE. THE RULING MILITARY COUNCIL HAS ALREADY REINFORCED THE GARRISON IN ASMARA, THE DATE: ORIG: UNIT: EXT: 4LLlASI G O+FIGc4 OCP^~'. ?' I'~4. OFFICERS AUTMENTICAT!'O OFFICE." Approved For R , 2 eeL.e~sRY20Q(~V4!( 1~ ' Vil BWB&TRgg9 g 11N9010 4% ;~ CLAS IFICA' '' A 1N1 PDFT CL BY: OUTGOING MESSAGE "I I Approved For Release 2001/08/21 : CIA-RD 06MR0Di SIGNAL GCNTrir7 USP ONLY AGE. COI ACP TU: TEE 4q0 UCI SECRET NO FOREIGN DISSEM cQ6'0T0-044=1' _.. PAGH+ OI PA UV :i ^ IPrILES Z CAPITAL OF ERITREA PROVINCE, WHERE REBEL SEPARATISTS ARE OPERATING, AND WILL MAINTAIN MAXIMUM SECURITY BOTH THERE AND IN ADDIS ABABA.Y ACCORDING TO SOME SOURCES, THE MILITARY RULERS MAY PROCLAIM A REPUBLIC-A MOVE FORESHADOUED LAST MARCH WHEN THEY REV03AKED THEIR EARLIER APPOINTMENT OF HAILE SELASSIE'S SON AS KING. THERE ARE ALSO REPORTS, THAT THE GOVERNMENT WILL DROP THE "PROVISIONAL" FROM ITS TITLE, A MOVE THAT MIGHT SPARK OPPOSITION FROM STUDENTS AND OTHERS WHO WANT A RETURN TO CIVILIAN RULE. WHATEVER IS ANNOUNCED, MAJOR MENGISTU AND LIEUTENANT COLONEL ATNAFU, WHO EMERGED DURING THE PAST YEAR AS THE KEY COUNCIL MEMBER?S, WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE TO WIELD EFFECTIVE POWER.Y SOME TOP LEVEL MILITARY OFFICERS AND DEFENSE MINISTRY OFFICIALS MAY BE RETIRED THIS WEEKEND-IN PART TO PROVIDE JOB OPENINGS FOR AMBITIOUS YOUNG OFFICERS. . ILLEGIB ON SEPTEMBER 11 THE GOVERNMENT ANNOUNCED THAT IT HAD RELEASED AND IMNESTI-D 55 POLITICAL PRISONERS, MOST OF WHOM WERE FORMER GOVEF:iMENT OFF=ICIALS. THE FATE OF THE REMAINING PRISONERS IS NOT CLEAR. ON SEPTEMBER 12 THE GOVERNMENT SAID IT HAD NO INTENTION WE: ~.R!G: UNIT: EXT: I.(A s,F,~aTIO? Approv0FF?BIF 1@+4r* 94Aar#W.AlTkLcl"lP&lBFT&ON i4A-4499010044-1 1MPDET CL BY: OUTGOLNG ~ Gg Approved or elease / IA-RDP 1 QO444 . -. I OMF 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 SECRET NO FOREIGN DISSEM NO INDEX AP.TUNN TO PEP U IP FILE!, OF EXECUTING OTHER PRISONER:s 'JITHOUT TRIAL. THE GOVERNMENT HAS MOVED THE SURVIVING MEMBERS OF THE ROYAL FAMILY, PRINCIPALLY THE EMPERIOR'S DAUGHTER AND GRANDDAUGHTERS, TO AUSTERE PRISON !QUARTERS, BUT PUBLIC^LLY DENIED ANY "!TENTION TO EXECUTE THEM. {SECRET} E-2 IMPDET.3H SDO DDODO 25X1A r TE: r , S: UNIT: EXT: OCI/FLO 1945 ApprovelFAS ~r~ ~s aO J1 / v T ~s ~~~r~Q~ ~+Q 14 100 4?1 I'APDET CL BY: 010725 Approved For Release 2001/08/21 : CIA-RDP86T00608R000300010044-1 SECRET NO FOREIGN DISSEM WESTERN HEMISPHERE BRIEF 142-75.Y //CHILE: IN A CEREMONY ON SEPTEMBER 11 MARKING THE SECOND ANNIVERSARY OF THE MILITARY TAKE-OVER, PRESIDENT AUGUSTO PINOCHET DECLARED THAT HIS GOVERNMENT WOULD PARTIALLY EASE THE STATE OF SIEti BUT HE REAFFIRMED ITS INTENTION TO RESTRICT INDIVIDUAL RIGHTS. MOST OF THE SPEECH WAS DEVOTED TO REITERATING THE REGIl1E'S MORAL RIGHTEOUSNESS, ITS FIERCE OPPOSITION TO MARXISM, AND ITS DETERMINA- TION TO STICK WITH A HARD LINE.//Y I/NO NEt DEPARTURES WERE ANNOUNCED IN ECONCf1IC OR FOREIGN AFFAIRS. THE ONLY NOTEUORTHY INNOVATION WAS A PROPOSAL TO CREATE A "COUNCIL OF STATE" COfPOSED OF FORMER PRESIDENTS AND OTHER PRO- MINENT CITIZENS TO ADVISE THE JUNTA ON VAJOR QUESTIONS. WHILE THIS WOULD SEEPS TO OPEN THE DOOR TO COOPERATION WITH KEY POLITICIANS SUCH AS FORMER PRESIDENT EDUARDO F'REI, LEADER OF THE LARGE CHRISTIAN DEMOCRATIC PARTY, THE ODDS ARE AGAINST THE MOVE TOWARD A MEANINGFUL DIALOGUE. FREI REPORTEDLY FORESEES THE EVENTUAL DEVELOPfENT OF SOME FORA OF COOPERATION WITH THE ARMED FORCES% BUT HE IS PROBABLY HOPING THAT ECONOMIC DIFFICULTIES WILL FORCE THE GOVERNMENT TO ABANDON ITS Approved For Release 2001/08/21 : CIA-RDP86T00608R000300010044-1 Approved For Release 2001/08/21 : CIA-RDP86T00608R000300010044-1 SECRET NO FOREIGN DISSEM EXTREMELY CONSERVATIVE ADVISERS AND PERHAPS ALTER THE JUNTA LEADER- SHIP.//y //THE PRESIDENT'S STRONG DISTRUST OF POLITICAL PARTIES AND HIS INDIRECT CRITICISM OF THEM IN BIS SPEECH SEEM TO SHOW THAT THERE HAS NOT BEEN ANY REAL SHIFT IN THE GOVERNMENT'S AUTHORITIRIAN ATTITUDE OR IN ITS TENDENCY TO EQUATE ALL OPPOSITION WITH SUBVERSIoU. ACTUALLY. THE PROPOSAL IS MORE LIKELY TO BE A PUBLIC RELATIONS GAMBIT THAN A FORTHRIGHT STEP TOWARD GREATER POLITICAL TOLERANCE.//Y //PINOCHET'S DECISO?N TO REDUCE THE STATE OF SIEGE HAY ALSO BE A LARGELY EMPTY GESTURE. THE DECISION WILL ALLOW SOME REVIEW AUTHORITY OY CIVIL COURTS, BUT THERE VILL PROBABLY BE LITTLE SUB- STANTIVE IMPACT UNLESS THE GOVERNMENT CHOOSES TO ABIDE BY DECREES MORE CLOSELY THAN IT HAS IN THE PAST. THERE HAS BEEN A REPEATED TENDENCY TO LOOK THE OTHER WAY WHILE THE SECURITY FORCES IGNORE THE LETTER AS WELL AS THE SPIRIT OF THE LAW- THERE WAS NO NEW WORD ON THE RELEASE OF PRXSONRRS.//Y //FOR THE r4 ST PART THE PRESIDENT DUELLED ON HIS NOW STANDARD THEME THAT CHILE STA14DS VIRTUALLY ALONE IN ITS CAMPAIGN AGAINST Approved For Release 2001/08/21 : CIA-RDP86T00608R000300010044-1 Approved For Release 2001/08/21 : CIA-RDP86T00608R000300010044-1 SECRET NO FOREIGN DISSEM MONOLITHIC WORLD COMMUNISM. THE US EMBASSY OBSERVED THAT HIS GENERALLY LACKLUSTER STATEMENTS FOUND A LESS ENTHUSIASTIC RECEPTION THAN LAST YEAR. THE RELATIVELY MINOR MODIFICATIONS NE PROPOSED WILL NOT GO FAR TOWARD STAISFYING CHILEANS WHO HAD HOPED FOR GREATER POLITICAL LIBERALIZATION AND A MORE HUMANISTIC ECONOMIC POLICY. NOR WILL THEY DO MUCH TO BOLSTER CHILE'S INTERNATIONAL IMAGE.//V //ALTHOUGH PIMOCHET SAID THE INTERNAL UNITY OP THE JUNTA WAS "LIKE GRANITE%" WE BELIEVE THAT GENERAL LEIGH THE AIR FORCE MEMBER OF THE JUNTA, IS UNLIKELY TO BE SATISFIED WITH THE PRESIDENT'S HARD- LINE STANCE. MORE FRICTION OVER POLICYMAKING SEEMS INEVITABLE. (SECRET NO FOREIGN DISSEM}//E-2 IMPDET.vt )O/DD SDO 25X1A SEPTEMBER 32. 39?5 OCI/VHD 3027 Approved For Release 2001/08/21 : CIA-RDP86T00608R000300010044-1