WESTERN HEMISPHERE BRIEF 191-75-4

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP86T00608R000300010093-7
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 28
• Document Creation Date: December 12, 2016
• Document Release Date: February 26, 2001
• Sequence Number: 93
• Publication Date: December 12, 1975
• Content Type: CABLE

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SECRET NOFORN
WESTERN HEMISPHERE BRIEF 111-75?Y
1. //ARGENTINA] ARGENTINE OFFICERS WHO FAVOR DELAYING A
M ITARY TAKEOVER WON A FRAGILE CONSENSUS AT A MEETING HELD BY ARMY
CHIEF GENERAL VIDELA AND TOP ARMY COMMANDERS ON DECEMBER 5.//Y
//VIDELA CALLED THE MEETING IN RESPONSE TO GROWING PRESSURE RR Ott
OFFICERS WHO, ALONG WITH SOME CIVILIAN BUSINESSMEN, HAVE BEEN
ADVOCATING THE OVERTHROW OF PRESIDENTHMARIA ESTELA PERON. GENERAL
RODOLPO MUJICA, HEAD OF THE SUPERIOR WAR SCHOOL, HAS EMERGED AS A
LEADING SPOKESMAN OF THOSE PAVOR_TNG A COUP- HE REPORTEDLY HAS
THREATENED TO RESIGN HIS COMMISSION IF THE ARMY DOES NOT OUST PERON
SOON//M
//VIDELA URGED THE OFFICERS AT THE MEETING TO POSTPONE COUP
PLANS AT LEAST UNTIL FEBRUARY OR MARCH, ARGUING THAT THE NATION'S
ECONOMY HAS NOT DETERIORATED ENOUGH TO MAKE MILITARY INTERVENTION
POPULAR. MANY OFFICERS ALREADY SHARED HIS CONCERN OVER THE PRESENT
LACK OP POPULAR SUPPORT. AND VIDELA APPARENTLY HAD LITTLE DIFFICULTY
IN WINNING A DELAY- EVEN 'SHE COUP PROPONENTS ARE LOATHE TO STRAIN
MILITARY UNITY BY A PRECIPITATE MOVE, KNOtING THAT MILITARY OPINION
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IS NOT FULLY WITH THEii?//M
/ITHOSE WHO FAVOR AN IMPiEDIATE COUP ARGUE THAT DELAY ONLY PLAYS
INTO THE HANDS OF TV-' TERRORISTS+ WHO THEY SAY, CONTINUE TO
INFILTRATE THE ARMED FORCES. MOREOVER+ COUP ADVOCATES FEEL THAT
SINCE A PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION HAS BEEN SET FOR LATE NEXT YEAR, IT
IS IMPERATIVE TO MOVE NOW. BEFORE THE UALLOTING GETS SO COOSE THAT
A MILITARY TAKEOVER WOULD BE HARD TO JUSTIFY.//M
//VIDELA AND HIS SUPPORTERSi WHO INCLUDE CHIEF OF THE GENERAL
STAFF GENERAL VIOLA, CONTEND THAT THE HILITARY CAN (OVERN EFFECTIVELY
ONLY AFTER THE SUBVERSIVES ARE "NEUTRALIZED." MOREOVER, VIDiELA
PREFERS NOT 79 MARTYR PERRON BY OUSTING HER BEFORE THERE IS FIRM
PROOF Of WIDESPREAD, HIGH-LEVEL CORRUPTION IN HER GOVERNMENT.//Y
//DESPITE THE AGREEMENT TO HOLD OFF, MILITARY INTERVENTION
REMAINS A LIVE POSSIBILITY. fISSTEPS BY THE ADMINISTRATION ARC MORE
LIKELY TO SPARK A COUP THAU TERRORIST PROVOCATIONS. INDEED% THE
RECENT MURDER OF RETIRED GENERAL CACERES MONIE AND HIS W?CFE AND
SUTSEOUENT ATTACKS AGAI4ST OTHER HIGH-RANKING BFFICERS DO NOT SEE"
TO H*VE INCREASED SUPPORT FOR A COUP. {SECRET NOFORN}//Y
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2. //MEXICO: THE RECENT. SEIZURE OP POUR US SHRIPIP BOATS BY
THE MEXICAN NAVY SUGGESTS MEXICO IS DDOPTXNG A POLICY Of STRICT
ENFORCEMENT OF CLAIMED TERRITORAL WATERS.//Y
//THE BOATSv SEIZED LAST Ws.EK, MERE THE FIRST TAKEN INTO
CUSTODY BY fEXICAN AUTHORITIES SINCE MARCH. THREE WERE CHARGED
ONLY PORT PEES AMOUNTING TO ABOUT *SOO. THE FOURTH BOAT WAS GIVE.M
A MINIMUM FINE OP *6,O80-PLUS PORT COSTS-FOR RESISTING ARREST.
ALTHOUGH SHRIMP CATCHES WERE CONFISCATED, THE NOMINAL PINES SUGGEST
THE SEIZURES tdERE UARNs R,IS.//Y
//RECENT CRITICISM OP THE NAVY IN THE MEXICAN PRESS HAS
UNDOUBTEDLY GENERATED SOME PRESSURES TO TAKE ACTION AGAINST FOREICN
FISHING 804TS IN MEXICAN WATERS. ANOTHER REASON FOR STEPPED-UP
ENFORCEMENT MAY BE MEXICAN LEGISLATIVE ACTIOM TO ESTABLISH A 200-NM
OPPSHIRE ECONOMIC ZONE. WHEN IT BECOMES EFFECTIVE IN THE SPRING,
THIS MEASURE WILL AFFECT US SHRIMPING IN THE GULF OP MEXICO. LAST
WEEK'S ARRESTS COULD BE AN INDICATION THAT THE MEXICANS WILL NO
LONGER TAKE A TOLERANT VIEW OF VIOLATIONS OF THEIR CLAIMED TERRITORIAL
WATERS. THE ARRESTS MILL ALSO GIVE THE GOVERNMENT A BETTER
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BARGAINING ~9OSXTIOW% IF BILATERAL TALKS ARE REQUIRED. {CONPIDEMTIAL
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MIDDLE EAST AFRICA BRIEF 191-75.Y
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1. LEBANON: RADICAL LEFTISTS ON THURSDAY NIGHT CONDITIONALLY-
ACCEPTED PRIME MINISTER KARAMI'S LATEST CALL FCR A TRUCE. THEY WILL
DECIDE WHETHER TO PARTICIPATE IN POLITICAL NEGOTIATIONS ON THE TERMS
OF A MORE DURAULE CEASE-FIRE AFTER MEETING WITH THE PRIME MINISTER-4'
THE LEFTISTS ARE DEMANDING THAT KARAMI "EXPLAIN" WHY THE
GOVERNMENT USED THE ARMY IN BEIRUT'S COMMERCIAL CENTER THIS WEEK.
THEY ALSO WANT AN EXPLANATION OF A SPEECH MADE BY PRESIDENT
FRANJIYAH ON. DECEMBER 10, IN WHICH FRANJIYAH DENOUNCED THE CONTINUING
VIOLENCE IN TERMS THAT THE LEFTISTS CONSIDERED PLACED UNDUE BLAME
ON THEM.Y
THE DECISION TO ACCEPT THE CEASE-FIRE CAME AFTER THE LEFTISTS
MET WITH LEADERS OF THE PALESTINE LIBERATION ORGANIZATION.
ZUHAYR MUHSIN, HEAD OF THE PLO MILITARY DEPARTMENT, TOLD NEWSMEN
THAT THE PALESTINIANS HAD BEEN ABLE TO ACT AS MEDIATORS BECAUSE
:..THEY "ARE NOT A PARTY TO THE CONFLICT. nY
REPRESENTATIVES OF THE TWO LARGEST CHRISTIAN POLITICAL PARTIES,
::THE PHALANGISTS AND THE NATIONAL LIBERALS, HAVE SAID THAT THEY WILL
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RESPECT THE CEASE-FIRE. A PHALANGIST REPRESENTATIVE HAS PLEDGED THAT
HIS PARTY WILL. ALLOW AN OFFICIAL INQUIRY INTO THE CAUSES OF THE
KILLINGS LAST WEEKEN) THAT SET OFF THE CURRENT ROUND OF FIGHTING.4'
THIS RELATIVELY COOPERATIVE ATTITUDE HAS RESULTED IN PART FROM
THE CHRISTIANS' INABILITY TO TURN THE TIDE OF BATTLE IN THE HOTEL
DISTRICT. DESPITE INTERVENTION BY ARMY COMMANDOS, THE LEFTISTS
APPEAR TO CONTROL TWO OF THE THREE HOTELS THAT COMMAND THE SEAFRONT
BETWEEN THE CHRISTIAN AND MUSLIM AREAS OF BEIRUT. {CONFIDENTIALLY
2. SPANISH SAHARA: MOROCCO IS CONTINUING TO STRENGTHEN ITS
SECURITY FORCES IN NORTHERN SPANISH SAHARA, ANTICIPATING A RAPID
SPANISH WITHDRAWAL FROM THE TERRITORY?Y
A SPANISH FOREIGN 11INISTRY OFFICIAL RECENTLY INDICATED THAT
VIRTUALIf ? ALL SPANISH FORCES AND CIVILIANS WILL BE OUT OF THE
SAHARA BY DECEMBER 20, WELL AHEAD OF THE SCHEDULED FEBRUARY
DEADLINE. THE SPANISH WANT TO AVOID INVOLVEMENT IN HOSTILITIES
BETWEEN MOROCCO AND THE POLISARIO FRONT OR ITS SPONSOR, ALGERIA.Y
ON THURSDAY, THE FIRST MOROCCAN ARMY UNITS ARRIVED IN EL AAIUN,
THE CAPITAL, AMID MUCH FANFARE FROM MOROCCAN OFFICIALS ALREADY ON
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THE SCENE-9
OPERATIONS ARE UNDER WAY IN THE NORTHEASTERN PART OF THE
TERRITORY AGAINST GUERRILLAS OF THE POLISARIO FRONT. THE GUERRILLAS
ARE NOW USING MORTARS, MACHINE GUNS, AND GRENADE LAUNCHERS.
ACCORDING TO SPANISH PRESS REPORTS, POLISARIO GUERRILLAS MACHINE-
GUNNED A MOROCCAN POLICE CAR IN EL AAIUN TUESDAY. THEY PROBABLY
WERE ALSO RESPONSIBLE FOR A PRE-DAWN RAID THURSDAY ON A MOROCCAN
GARRISON OUTSIDE THE CITY.Y
SCATTERED FIGHTING REPORTEDLY IS ALSO OCCURRING BETWEEN
MAURITANIAN FORCES AND POLISARIO GUERRILLAS ALONG THE SOUTHERN
SPANISH SAHARAN BORDER. NOUAKCHOTT HAS MOBILIZED ITS 1,500-MAN
ARMY AND MOROCCAN C-130S ARE SHUTTLING ARMS AND AMMUNITION INTO
THE CAPITAL.Y
ALGIERS REMAINS. OPPOSED TO A MOROCCAN-MAURITANIAN TAKE-OVER OF
-SPANISH SAHARA AND IS CONTINUING A LIMITED MILITARY BUILD-UP IN
-SOUTHWESTERN ALGERIA ADJACENT TO THE SAHARA. THE ALGERIAN GOVERNMENT
HAS DECLARED A SAHARA SOLIDARITY WEEK AND IS STAGING DEMONSTRATIONS
',THROUGHOUT THE COUNTRY. THESE RALLIES ARE CLEARLY INTENDED TO
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.AROUSE ANTI-MOROCCAN SENTIMENT, BUT WE BELIEVE THE GOVERNMENT IS
ALSO TRYING TO DEVELOP DOMESTIC SUPPORT FOR INCREASED ALGERIAN
ASSISTANCE TO THE POLISARIO FRONT. THE ALGERIA N MEDIA ARE
HIGHLIGHTING POLISARIO CLAIMS OF MILITARY SUCCESS AGAINST MOROCCAN
FORCES IN THE SAHARA.Y
THE POLISARIO GUERRILLAS CANNOT DEFEAT THE MORE HEAVILY
ARMED MOROCCAN ARMY, BUT WITH ALGERIAN BACKING THEY CAN PROBABLY
KEEP UP TERRORIST AND SABOTAGE ATTACKS. THE AUTOMATED BELT CONVEYOR
SYSTEM THAT MOVES PHOSPHATE ORE SOM' 60 MILES FROM BU CRAA TO EL
AAIUN IS ESPECIALLY VULNERABLE TO GUERRILLA OPERATIONS.Y
DEBATE ON SPANISH SAHARA IN THE UN GENERAL ASSEMBLY HAS ENDED
WITH THE ADOPTION OF TWO CONTRADICTORY RESOLUTIONS. THIS OUTCOME IS
A SETBACK FOR ALGERIA, WHICH SOUGHT FORMAL UN DISAVOWAL OF THE
SPANISH-MOROCCAN-MAURITANIAN AGREEMENT THAT PROVIDED FOR GIVING THE
-TERRITORY TO RABAT AND NOUAKCHOTT. {CONFIDENTIAL}M
3. ANGOLA: THE OFFENSIVE LAUNCHED LAST WEEK BY THE POPULAR
:MOVEMENT FOR THE LIBERATION OF ANGOLA AGAINST AMBRIZ, THE HEAD-
:. QUARTERS OF THE NATIONAL FRONT FOR THE LIBERATION OF ANGOLA, APPEARS
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TO HAVE STALLED SOME 50 MILES SOUTH OF ITS TARGET.Y
THE NATIONAL FRONT HAS BEEN DESTROYING BRIDGES AS IT FALLS
BACK TO P,MBRIZ AND POSITIONS FARTHER NORTH. MOREOVER, THE
POPULAR MOVEMENT'S SUPPLY LINES TO LUANDA PROBABLY HAVE BEEN
SLOWED BY THE 0N.;ET OF THE RAINY SEASON, A FACTOR THAT ANNUALLY
HAMPERED PORTUGUESE OPERATIONS DURING THE INSURGENCY.Y
A NATIONAL UNION SPOKESMAN' ANNOUNCED IN LUSAKA, ZAMBIA-.
LAST WEEKEND THAT UNION FORCES HAD "LAUNCHED AN OFFENSIVE" AGAINST
HENRIQUE DE CARVALHO, THE POPULAR MOVEMENT'S MAJOR STRONGHOLD
IN EASTERN ANGOLA. THE EXTENT OF THE FIGHTING IN THAT AREA
CANNOT BE DETERMINED. {CONFIDENTIAL}M
4. RHODESIA: JOSHUA NKO11O, THE LEADER OF A MAJOR FACTION
OF RHODESIAN BLACK NATIONALISTS, ANNOUNCED ON THURSDAY THAT
FORMAL NEGOTIATIONS WITH PRIME MINISTER IAN SMITH AIMED AT
ACHIEVING A CONSTITUTIONAL SETTLEMENT WILL BEGIN ON FRIDAY.Y
NKOMO AND SMITH LAST WEEK SIGNED A "DECLARATION OF INTENT"
:' TO BEGIN THE FORMAL TALKS, BUT THEY HAD BEEN EXPECTED TO HOLD
ANOTHER PRELIMINARY MEETING THIS WEEK TO SETTLE FINAL DETAILS.
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NKOMO'S ANNOUNCEI1ENT SUGGESTS THAT ALL PROCEDURAL MATTERS MAY
ALREADY HAVE BEEN WORKED OUT.9
NKOMO SAID HE WOULD LEAD A 12-MAN DELEGATION TO THE TALKS,
9UT HE DID NOT INDICATE WHETHER REPRESENTATIVES..OF OTHER NATIONALIST
FACTIONS WILL BE INCLUDED. THE. '',.t.EGATION ALMOST CERTAINLY WILL
NOT INCLUDE NKOMO'S MOST PROMINENT RIVALS, NDABANINGI SITHOLE
AND BISHOP MUZOREI,IA, WHO HAVE DENOUNCED RFROM EXILE THE
SMITH-NKOMO MEETINGS.Y
SETTLEMENT TALKS WILL BE PROLONGED AND DIFFICULT, AND ULTIMATE
SUCCESS IS FAR FROM ASSURED. IN ANY EVENT, SMITH CAN BE EXPECTED
TO EMPLOY TACTICS AIMED AT AVOIDING A FINAL (SETTLEMENT FOR AS
LONG ASN POSSIBLE. {CONFIDENTIAL} E-2 IMPDET.rI
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EUROPEAN BRIEF 191-75.Y
1. SPAIN: THE NEW SF..NISH CABINET, WHICH IS TO BE SWORN IN.
FRIDAY OR SATURDAY, PROMISES A BREAK WITH THE PAST. IT IS LIBERAL IN
SPANISH TERMS, AS KING JUAN CARLOS AND PRIME MINISTER ARIAS TRY TO
TAKE SOME OF THE WIND OUT OF THE OPPOSITION'S SAILS.Y
MANUEL FRAGA IRIBARNE, THE NEW INTERIOR MINISTER, AMD JOSE
MARIA DE AREILZA, THE NEW FOREIGN MINISTER, FAVOR AN EARLY AND
FAIRLY EXTENSIVE LIBERALIZATION OF THE SPANISH POLITICAL SYSTEM.
MOST OF THE OTHER POSTS-ARE FILLED BY MEN WHO FAVOR GRADUAL, BUT
SIGNIFICANT, CHANGE. THE NEW JUSTICE MINISTER, FORMER AMBASS".D OR
TO THE VATICAN -ANTONIO GARRIGUES, FOR EXAMPLE, MAY INTERPRET THE
KING'S CONTROVERSIAL PARDON LIBERALLY ENOUGH TO FREE MANY OF THE
REf1AINiNG POLITICAL PRISONERS-AN EMOTIONAL ISSUE FOR THE LEFTY
LIEUTENANT GENERAL SANTIAGO DIAZ DE MENDIVIL WAS NAMED DEPUTY
PRIME MINISTER AND COORDINATOR G'F DEFENSE AFFAIRS. HE IS ONE' OF THE
LESS CONSERVATIVE MEMBERS OF THE MILITARY HIGH COMMANDS'
THE NEW MINISTER OF THE GOVERNMENT'S LABOR ORGANIZATION,
IRODOLFO MARTIN VILLA, AND THE NEW MINISTER OF THE PRIME MINISTER'S
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OFFICE, ALFONSO OSSORIO, ARE ALSO MEN WHO FAVOR GRADUAL
DEMOCRATIZATION. INDEED, THE ENTIRE CABINET LIST PROVIDES SCANT
COMFORT TO DIE-HARDS ON THE RIGHT. LEFTISTS ARE UNLIKELY TO GREET
THE NEW GOVERNf1ENT WITH ANY PUBLIC ENTHUSIASM- ,-BUT THEY MAY BE
PRIVATELY ENCOURAGED BY A CABINET THAT IS AS LIBERAL AS THEY
COULD HAVE REALISTICALLY HOPED FOR.Y
THE CABINET WILL HAVE TO MOVE QUICKLY TO DEAL WITH
DEMONSTRATIONS AND STRIKES ORGANIZED BY THE LEFT. THOUSANDS
OF INDUSTRIAL WOt'%:cRS?STRUCK ON THURSDAY AS LABOR ACTION SPREAD
FROM MADRID TO OTHER INDUSTRIAL AREAS, INCLUDING BARCELONA, THE
NORTHERN BASQUE COUNTRY, AND THE ASTURIAS COAL MINES. THE TWO
PRINCIPAL THEMES OF THE STRIKERS HAVE BEEN POLITICAL AMNESTY AND
THE WAGE FREEZE. THE STRIKES SO FAR HAVE FAILED TO r'.RALYZE THE
CONSTRUCTION AND METAL WORKERS' INDUSTRIES-BODING ILL FOR THE
COMMUNISTS' PLANS TO ORGANIZE A NATIONWIDE GENERAL STRIKE EARLY
NEXT MONTH. {CONFIDENTIAL}P
2. PORTUGAL: FOREIGN MIf1!ISTER MELO ANTUNES, A KEY MEMBER OF
PORTUGAL'S REVOLUTIONARY COUNCIL, HAS ANi"JOUNCED THAT THE MILITARY Is
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PREPARED TO ALLOW CIVILIANS A GREATER ROLE IN RUNNING THE ~:OUNTRY,
BUT HE RULED OUT AN EARLY RETURN TO CIVILIAN RULE.Y
SPEAKING AT A PRESS CONFERENCE ON TUESDAY, ANTUNES CONCEDED
THAT THE ARMED FORCES MOVEMENT-WHICH HAS DOMINATED PORTUGAL FOR THE
PAST 0 MONTHS- MAY HAVE TO SURRENDER ITS ROLE AS THE VANGUARD OF
THE REVOLUTION. FIE CONFIRMED THAT A REVISION OF THE PACT SIGNED
WITH THE POLITICAL PARTIES LAST SPRING IS UNDER WAY, BUT HE STRESSED
THAT A PRECT?ITATE WITHDRAWAL BY THE iILITARY COULD ENDANGER ITS
PROGRAM FOR LEADING THE CO!.NTRY TO SOCIALISM. ANTUNES, WHO HAS
POLITICAL AMBITIONS OF HIS OWN, WAS RESPONDING TO RECENT DEMANDS
BY MILITARY AND CIVILIAN LEADERS THAT THE ARMED FORCES MOVEMENT
RELINQUISH POWER AND "RETURN TO THE BARRACKS."Y
AMONG THE OFFICERS PUSHING FOR THE MILITARY TO WITHDRAW FROM
POLITICS ARE A NIJMOER OF RESPECTED PROFESSIONAL SOLDIERS WHO
BELIEVE THE PEOPLE SHOULD BE ALLOWED TO DECIDE WHETHER THEY WANT
SOCIALISM. ALTHOUGH THEIR NUMBER AND INFLUENCE ARE NOT KNOWN1
SEVERAL OF THE OFFICERS ARE BELIEVED TO HAVE PLAYED A KEY ROLE IN
Pll rTING DOWN THE LEF'i IST MILITARY REBELLIOC`` OF NOVEMBER 25-26.
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THERE IS EVIDENCE THAT THE STRENGT;! OF THE GROUP IS GROWING AND THAT
IT MAY EXERT INCREASING PRESSURE UPON THE ANTUNES FACTION TO CHANGE
BOTH ITS GRADUALIST APPROACH TO RETURNING POWER AND ITS ATTACHMENT
TO SOCIALISM AS AN UNALTF:RABLE GOAL. CCONFIDENTIAL}Y
3. EASTERN EUROPE: GENERAL SECRETARY BREZHNEV, FIVE OF HIS
EAST EUROPEAN COUNTERPARTS, AND MONGOLIAN PARTY LEADER
TSEDENBAL--ALL OF WHOM WERE ATTENDING THY POLISH CON-
GRESS--HELD A SHORT "SUMMIT" MEETING IN WARSAW ON
DECEMBER 9. ROMANIA, WHICH SENT A SECOND-LEVEL DELE-
GATION TO THE CONGRESS, WAS NOT REPRESENTED.Y
A SHORT COMMUNIQUE RELEASED BY TASS SAID ONLY
THAT THE PARTICIPANTS GAVE SPECIAL ATTENTION TO WAYS
TO IMPLEMENT THE EUROPEAN SECURITY ACCORD AND THAT
DISARMAMENT MEASURES MUST ACCOMPANY POLITICAL RELAXA-
TION. DISCUSSION MAY HAVE FOCUSED ON BREZHNEV'S PRO-
POSAL, PUBLICLY AIRED THE SAME DAY, FOR PAN-EUROPEAN
MEETINGS TO BE FIELD ON SUCH PROBLEi1S AS THE ENVIRON-
?;MENT AND ENERGY.Y
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THE LEADERS ALSO "EXCHANGED OPINIONS" ON THE
PROBLEMS OF FURTHER COOPERATION BETWEEN THEIR COUN-
TRIES--LANGUAGE= THAT SUGGESTS A VARIETY OF PROPOSALS
AND VIEWPOINTS IJERE AIRED-Y
MOSCOW MAY HAVE WANTED TO. TAKE ADVANTAGE OF
CEAUSESCU'S ABSENCE BY DISCUSSING INFORMALLY WITH ITS
LOYALIST ALLIES SUCH SENSITIVE ISSUES AS PREPARATIONS
FOR THE EUROPEAN COMMUNIST PARTY CONFERENCE, POLEMICS,
WITH CHINA, AND CEI1A INTEGRATION- ROMANIA HOLDS DIS-
SENTING POSITIONS ON ALL THESE ISSUES. CONVENING THE
MEETING WITHOUT CEAUSESCU UNDERSCORES ROMANIAN ISOLA-
TION AND MAY PROVOKE UNEASINESS IN BUCHAREST.Y
IT I UNCLEAR WHETHER THIS MEETING RULES OUT THE
POSSIBILITY OF A CEMA SUMMIT IN THE NEAR FUTURE.
..ECONOMIC SUMMIT HAD BEEN EXPECTED BEFORE YEAR'S END,
7 BUT RECENT REPORTING SUGGEST., THAT IT HAS SEEN PUSHED
BACK UNTIL NEXT YEAR. {CONFIDENTIALLY
DATE:
ORIG:
UNIT:
EXT:
-t}
4. CZECHOSLOVAK-YUGOSLAVIA: ECONOMIC RELATIONS WERE
R ELEAEINO OFFICER COOUOINAT`NO OPP!CIRS AUTHENTICATING OPPICIR
CLASSIFICATION ApprW@OIFIWRYI@A?g TT'li'br$l2f:I!3fAW19M6T0?6 GNOOOIO 3-7 INIPDET
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Mgy9AO^ MAN.L' 44 IYOICATON
CONF: INFO: FILE
THE FOCAL POINT OF CZECHOSLOVAK PREMIER STROUGAL'S
MOREOVER, THE BASIC TENETS OF CZECHO-
THREE-DAY VISIT TO YUGOSLAVIA, WHICH ENDED ON WEDNESDAY.Y
A FIVE-YEAR {1976-3O} TRADE AGREEMENT AND A TRADE
PROTOCOL FOR 1'176 WERE SIGNED. THE LONG-TERM AGREEMENT
CALLS FOR A DOUBLING OF THE PRESENT TRADE LEVEL TO
*4.3 BILLION. METALLURGICAL. AND AGRICULTURAL COOPERA-
TION, THE TRANSPORT OF SO')IET NATURAL GAS FOR YUGOSLA-
VIA ACROSS CZECHOSLOVAK TERRITORY, THE PAN ADRIA PIPE-
LINE, AND ECONOMIC COOPERATION BEYOND 1980 APPARENTLY
WERE ALSO DISCUSSED.Y
IN THE POLITICAL REALM, WHERE THERE ARE FAR FEWER
POSSIBILITIES FOR AGREEMENT, THE TWO SIDES EXCHANGED
VIEWS". ON "TOPICAL QUESTIONS IN INTERNATIONAL RELA-
TIONS." CZECHOSLOVAKIA AND YUGOSLAVIA ARE ON OPPOSITE
=SIDES IN THE DEADLOCKED PREPARATIONS FOR A EUROPEAN
COMMUNIST PARTY CONFERENCE, AND PRAGUE IS VIEWED BY
:=BELGRADE AS A MAJOR SUPPORT CENTER rvR THE YUGOSLAV
COMINFORMISTS.
DATE:
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UNIT:
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NO INDEX
R[TURN ro
DISSEM BY:
COOR:INA'INO OR/ICERS AUTHENTICATING OPFIC[R
REPRODUCTION
Y
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OTHER THAN THE ISSUING OFFICE IS PROHIBITED li%APDE l
Approved For Release 2001/08/21 : ipphi:
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SLOVAK FOREIGN POLICY--PROLETARIAN INTERNATIONALISM
AND A COORDINATED BLOC APPROACH--ARE ANATHEMA TO BEL-
GRADE?Y
THE YUGOSLAVS MAY HAVE COM^!AI?NED TO STROUGAL
ABOUT CZECHOSLOVAK PRESS TREATMLNT OF THEIR COUNTRY.
PRAGUE'S REPEATED EMPHASIS ON THE ROLE OF THE SOVIET
UNION IN THE LIBERATION OF YUGOSLAVIA HAS PERSIST-
ENTLY RANKLED BELCRADE?Y
STROUGAL PROEIABLY PUSHED FOR A TITO VISIT TO
PRAGUE. ALTHOUGH PARTY CHIEF HUSAK VISITED BELGRADE
IN 1973 AND YUGOSLAV OFFICIALS HAVE STATED THAT THE
ILL WILL OF THE POST-INVASION PERIOD HAS DISSIPATED,
THE CZECHOSLOVAKS HAVE SOUGHT A TITO VISIT AS THE
DECISIVE SIGN THAT RELATIONS HAVE NORMALIZED.
STROUGAL, WHO WAS RECEIVED BY THE MARSHAL, SAID IN
SAN INTERVIEW AT THE END OF THE VISIT THAT TITO HAD
PROMISED 'ro VISIT PRAGUE ''IN THE NEAR FUTURE." THE
YUGOSLAV VERSION OF THE INTERVIEW OMITTED THIS POINT. {CONFIDENTIAL}y
DATP-
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5. YUGOSLAVIA: THE ANNUAL ROUND OF GRUMBLING ABOUT
BELGRADE'S FEDERAL BUDGET PROPOSALS SEEMS LOUDER THAN USUAL THIS
YEAR AND EVEN PN'EVLQUSLY PRIVILEGED SECTOR---LIKE
THE MILITARY--APPEAR TO BE FEELING THE PINCH.Y
BELGRADE'S ECONOMIC PLANS FOR 19.76 FORECAST A
39.3 PERCENT INCREASE IN FEDERAL SPENDING--WELL BE-
HIND THE CURRENT ANNUAL INFLATION RATE OF ABOUT 25
PERCENT. ALL THE NUMBERS ARE NOT YET KNOWN, BUT THE
FACT THAT THE MAJOR INTEREST GROUPS ARE COMPLAINING
SUGGESTS THAT THE SLOWER RATE OF INCREASED SPENDING
IS BEING APPLIED EQUITABLY.Y
THE WELL--DEVELOPED NORTHERN REPUBLICS, CROATIA
AND SLOVENIA, CUSTOMARILY GROUSE ABOUT BEING OVER-
TAXED FOR THE BENEFIT OF THE LESS-DEVELOPED SOUTHERN
AREAS. AGAIN THIS YEA', THESE TIJO "HAVE" REPUBLICS
ARE SHARPLY CRITICAL OF THE FEDERAL REGIME'S DICTA-
=TION OF ECONOMIC POLICY TO THE REPUBLICS, PARTICULARLY
IN SETTING INVESTMENT LIMITS FOR THE LOCAL ECONOMIES . Y
DATE:
ORIG:
UNIT:
EXT:
all-9.314% OPP'C[R C.OPD'NATING OPPICIAtS , E pR }~gL p AUTMIYf12CATINO OfJICf.R
cwel.ISAr:c% A REPRO?UCTLQ,)BY01171hlgAylIC'I H'K t3 ~~EiU~KUUT~:f~~~ ~`
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THE LESS-DEVELOPED REGIONS NORMALLY RECEIVE SUP-
PLEMENTAL FEDERAL FUNDS, IN THEORY TO HELP THEM CATCH
UP WITH THE NORTI.I. THESE DEVELOPMENTAL FUNDS HAVE
USUALLY ASSURED A MEASURE OF PROTECTION FOR THE POORER
AREAS FROM BUDGET SQUEEZES. THIS YEAR, RO(zIEVER, THE
PICTURE HAS CHANCED. A PARLIAMENTARY DELEGATE FROM
KOSOVO--THE POOREST AREA OF YUGOSLAVIA--RECENTLY COM-
PLAINED THAT THE PROVINCE FACES NEARLY 300 PERCENT
HIGHrR PAYMENTS INTO THE FEDERAL BUDGET THIS YEAR.
HE ALSO SAID KOSOVO'S TAKE FROM SPECIAL DEVELOPMENT
FUNDS IN L976 WILL FALL SHORT OF THE AMOUNT FORECAST
IN THE LONG-RANGE DEVELOPMENT PLAN-Y
THE YUGOSLAV DCFENSE MINISTRY, WHICH OVER THE
PAST FEW YEARS HAS HAD SIZABLE INCREASES IN INVEST-
MENT FOR ITS MODERNIZATION PROGRAM, ALSO APPEARS TO
BE TIGHTENING ITS BELT. A DEPUTY DEFENSE MINISTER
TOLD THE PARLIAMENT LAST' FRIDAY THAT THE MINISTRY'S
ALLOTED FUNDS FOR L976 WOULD "ENSURE THE PRESENT,
DATE:
ORIG:
UNIT:
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CLA63mKJ.r,oN Appr8fiWFf$f-RIdb)b@T2?81r,@?8 ZfPq iDA I 9UMUOUROO1IflO23-7 INIPDET
CL BY:
 L ) UI G) I N -T
Ap moved 1 or Release 2001/08/21 : CIA-RD(>
0 0 0 0 0. 0
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CONF: INFO: FILE
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L
OO6O8ROOO
OlQqL
11,
NO INOMR
RETURN TO PER
BUT NOT THE DESIRED LEVEL OF EQUIPMENT AND MODERN-
IZATION?^Y
EVEN TAE TRADE UNIONS--WHICH IN RECENT YEARS
HAVE MADE FEW I,IAVES--ARE WARNING ABOUT THE IMPACT ON
EMPLOYMENT OF SLOWER INVESTMENT RATES BY THE GOVERN-
MENT-Y
PREMIER BIJEDIC'S HANDLING OF ECONOMIC POLICY,
WHICH HAS BEEN CRITICIZED HEAVILY OVER THE PAST YEAR,
MAY ONCE AGAIN COME TO THE FORE. IN POINT OF FACT,
THE DECISION FOR A TOUGHER ANTI-INFLATIONARY BUDGET
IN 1976 APPEARS TO HAVE BEEN THOROUGHLY DISCUSSED AT
TOP PARTY LEVELS. THE REGIME'S ATTEMPT TO TRIM YUGO-
SLAV EXPECTATIONS MAY REQUIRE SCAPEGOATS, HOWEVER,
PARTICULARLY WHILE THE POSSIBILITY OF DEMAGOGIC AP-
-PEAL BY PRO-SOVIET FACTIONS IS OF SERIOUS CONCERN IN
BELGRADE. {CONFIDENTIAL}y
6. YUGOSLAVIA: THE COMMUNIQUE ON Tt,. rOUR-DAY IT OF FOREIGN
MINISTER MINIC TO THE SOVIET UNION SUGGESTS THAT BOTH
DATE:
ORIG:
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RcruRN ro PER
SIDES ARE TRYING TO SQUELCH SPECULATION ABOUT A WIDEN-
ING BREACH IN THEIR RELATIONS.Y
MINIC'S OFFICIAL TALKS IN MOSCOW TOOK PLACE, THE
COMMUNIQUE SAYS IN AN ATEMOPHERE OF "FRIENDSHIP, f1U-
TUAL TRUST, AND FRANKNESS." ALTHOUGH THE COMMUNIQUE
IS SPRY;,;KLED WITH PRAISE FOR IMPROVEMENTS IN BILATERAL
RELATIONS AND PROMISES TO CONTINUE THE "CONSTRUCTIVE
SPIRIT." IT FOCUSES PRIMARILY ON INCREASED ECONOMIC
TIES AND AREAS OF GENERAL AGREEMENT. IN FOREIGN AFFAIRS.Y
THE ISSUES OF SOVIET SUPPORT FOR STALINIST SUB-
VERSIVES IN YUGOSLAVIA--THE CENTRAL PROBLEM BETWEEN
THE E'WO COUNTRIES--AND THE DEADLOCK OVER THE EUROPEAN
COMMUNIST CONFERENCE WERE NOT MENTIONED DIRECTLY.Y
THE YUGOS'.AVS, HOWEVER, ARE CLEARLY IRRITATED
BY NUSCOW'S STANCE; ON BOTH PROBLEMS AND ARE VENTING
THEIR ANGER IN VARIOUS WAYS. ON WEDNESDAY, FOR EX-
-AMPLE, RADIO ZAGREB'S CHIEF FOREIGN AFFAIRS COM-
MENTATOR BROKE A LONG-STANDING TABOO BY CRITICIZING
DATE:
ORIG:
UNIT:
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R ELSASING OFFICER COORDINATING OFFICLRS AUTHENTICATING OFFICER
cuss?cArlcm REPRODUCTION BY OTHER THAN THE ISSUING OFFICE IS PROHIBITED E 2 IMPDET
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BREZHNEV BY NAME. HE SAID THAT BREZHNEV'S SPEECH
TO THE POLISH PARTY CONGRESS WAS A REVERSION TO THE
KREMLIN'S HABIT' OF SETTING IDEOLOGICAL STANDARDS
FOR THE WORLD COMMUNIST 11OVEMENT AND DIC` ATING DO-
MESTIC AND FOREIGN POLICY TO THE "SOCIALIST COM-
MUNITY." THE COMMENTATOR ALSO ACCUSED THE SOVIETS
OF VIOLATING UNDERSTANDINGS ON PREPARATIONS FOR THE
EUROPEAN PARTY CONFERENCE?Y
THE PARTY PRESIDIUM MET IN BELGRADE ON THURS-
DAY AND, AMONG OTHL1 THINGS, GAVE ITS FULL, BLESS-
ING TO THE REFUSAL OF THE YUGOSLAV DELEGATION TO
ACCEPT SOVIET INITIATIVES AT LAST MONTHS PREPARA-
TORY TALKS FOR THE EUROPEAN PARTY CONFERENCE. {CON-
FIDENTIAL NOFORN}Y
SDO DDODO
DATE: DECEMBER 12, 1975
ORIG:
UNIT: OCI/FLO
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1- CHINA: THE LEFT WING OF THE CHINESE COMMUNIST PARTY, WHICH
HAS WATCHED THE EXCESSIVE POLICIES OF THE CULTURAL REVOLUTION BEING
OVERTURNED IN THE PAST YEAR, HAS LAUNCHED A STRIDENT PROPAGANDA
COUNTERATTACK- THIS ASSAULT FOCUSES MAINLY ON THE NEW EDUCATIONAL
POLICIES ANNOUNCED THIS FALL BUT INCLUDES A BROADER DEFENSE OF THE
CULTURAL REVOLUTION IN GENERAL AND OF THE "NEW THINGS,'' A CODEWORD
FOR POLICIES ADOPTED DURING THAT TURBULENT PERIOD.Y
//AN ARTICLE CARRIED IN THE PARTY'S TWO MAJOR PUBLICATIONS-
ATTACKS POINT BY POINT THE SHIFTS IN EDUCATIONAL POLICY ANNOUNCED IN
A SPEECH BY THE MINISTER OF EDUCATION AND REPORTEDLY ENDORSED BY
CHAIRMAN MAO. IT DISMISSES AS RIDICULOUS THE CHARGE MADE BY THE
EDUCATION MINISTER THAT THE UNIVERSITIES HAVE FAILED TO PROVIDE
QUALITY EDUCATION. IT SPECIFICALLY CRITICIZES THE NOTION THAT THE
-+UNIVERSITIE!; LUST EMPHASIZE BASIC TECHNICAL COURSES, A DIRECT REBUTTAL
TO THE REPORTED STATEMENTS OF MAO AND THE EDUCATION MINISTER ON THE
=NEED TO INCREASE THE STUDY OF BASIC SCIENTIFIC THEORY. IT ATTACKS..
THE POLICY OF SENDING STUDENTS DIRECTLY TO THE UNIVERSITIES WITHOUT
DATE:
ORIG:
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T a ' ? ?
AppaoM dNF wUReI ase 2001/08/21: CIA-RDO$A 00608R000 0 0100 3-
ZLASSIPICATIOr Approval l:W% QDIOI7Q$~P~+1T'?l,~ril i 9f 1G 6ba ? 9010 327 Ih1PDET
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THEIR HAVING SPENT A FEW YEARS IN THE RURAL AREAS FIRST.//Y
//THE ARTICLE ALSO REITERATES THE FAVORITE LEFTIST POSITION
THAT POLITICAL TRAININ; IS THE MOST IMPORTANT FUNCTION OF THE
UNIVERSITIES, DESPITE THE REPORTED STATEMENT BY_ MAO THAT UNIVERSITY
STUDENTS NEED NOT STUDY POLITICS IN COLLEGE BUT CAN DO SO AT THEIR
PLACES OF EMPLOYFIENT./!Y
//THE ARTICLE HAS PROMPTED ONE COMMI.'NIST OFFICIAL TO EXPRESS
HIS CONCERN OVER A POSSIBLE RESURGENCE OF ULTRA-LEFTIST ACTIVITY.
AFTER A STEADY EROSION OF LEFTIST POLITICAL INFLUENCE-, PARTICULARLY
IN THE CULTURAL ARENA, THE RECENT CHANGES IN EDUCATIONAL POLICY
FORCED THE LEFTISTS WITH THE CHOICE OF STRIKING BACK OR 33ABANDONING
THEIR LAST REMAINING AREA OF INFLUENCE TO THE MODERATE COALITICN
HEADED BY VICE PREMIER TENG HSIAO-PING.//Y
THE EDUCATIONAL DEBATE HAS APPARENTLY CAUSED SOME DISRUPTION
IN TWO OF CHINA'S MOST PRESTIGIOUS UNIVERSITIES, THOSE IN PEKING
AND TSINGHUA, WHERE STUDENTS ON BOTH SIDES OF THE ISSUE HAVE
-PUT UP WALL POSTERS. SOME POSTERS COMPLAIN THAT EDUCATIONAL
POLICIES ARE DEPRIVING STUDENTS OF A GOOD EDUCATION, WHILE OTHERS
DATE:
ORIG:
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Cu;SIPuCATION ApproffiaRP8PffAYa%ye?5(t$/ft)21TYrd -tt t 1 O t'U$6b010O9-7 IMPDET
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.ATTACK WHAT THEY SEE AS A RETURN TO THE "ELITIST".POLICIES IN
VOGUE BEFORE THE CULTURAL REVOLUTION. THE LATTER POSTERS INCLUDE
SPECIFIC ATTACKS ON THE MINISTER OF EDUCATION, WHOA THEY BLAME
FOR REINSTITUTING HIGHER EDUCATIONAL STAND3ARDS.Y
LEFTIST ASSAULTS ON THE NEW EDUCATIONAL POLICY WILL PROBABLY
STAVr OFF, TEMPORARILY AT LEAST, ANY MAJOR CHANGES IN THE EDUCA-
TION SYSTEM. EFFORTS TO REGAIN SOME LOST GROUND AND TO EXPAND THIS
ATTACK INTO A DEFENSE OF THE CULTURAL REVOLUTION ARE LIKELY TO
MEET WITH LESS SUCCESS. THE BROADER ATTACK IS CONTAINED IN AN
ARTICLE BY LIANG HSIAO, A PSEUDONYM FOR AN UNIDENTIFIED BUT
INFLUENTIAL PERSON OR GROUP IN THE PART LEADERSHIP. THIS ARTICLE
ATTACKS THOSE WHO HAVE "NEGATED" THE POLICIES OF THE CULTURAL
REVOLUTION BY ENDLESS CRITICISM. THE ONLY SPECIFIC POLICY
MENTIONED IS THAT OF EDUCATION, BUT THE DEFENSE OF THE "NEW
THINGS" THAT EMERGED DURING THE CULTURAL REVOLUTION IS CLEARLY
^MEANT TO INCLUDE A WIDE RANGE OF POLICY ISSUES.Y
THIS BROAD ATTACK IS A RESPONSE NOT ONLY TO THE CHANGES MADE
RECENTLY IN CULTURAL REVOLUTION POLICIES AND TO MAO'S APPARENT
DATE:
ORIG:
UNIT:
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PILIASINO OFFICER COOPO.NATINO O?FIC[R3 AUTN[NTICATING OFPICItmt
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ABANDONMENT OF THE LEFT, BUT ALSO UNDOUBTEDLY TO THE GROWING POWER
AND PRESTIGE OF TENG HSIAO-PING. TENG IS A PARTICULAR IRRITANT
TO THE PARTY'S LEFT WING BECAUSE, AS A VICTIM OF THE CULTURAL
REVOLUTION, HE PERSONIFIES ALL OF THE 9"EVILS"..THAT THE LEFTISTS
WANTED TO ERADICATE DURING THAT PERIOD.'
IT UIS PRECISELY TENG'S POWER, GREATER NOW THAN BEFORE THE
CULTURAL REVOLUTION, THAT IS LIKELY TO CONFINE LEFTIS'T'S' ATTACKS
TO PROPAGANDA BROADSIDES, WHILE LIMITING THEIR ACTUAL INFLUENCE
OVER POLICY. NEVERTHELESS, THESE RECENT ARTICLES CLEARLY
Approved For Release 2001/08/21 : CIA-RDP86T00608R000300010093-7.
DEMONSTRATE THAT THE LEFT RETAINS ACCESS TO THE MEDIA AND IS