BHUTTO TO VISIT WASHINGTON

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP86T00608R000300070006-7
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 8
• Document Creation Date: December 15, 2016
• Document Release Date: July 26, 2004
• Sequence Number: 6
• Publication Date: January 29, 1975
• Content Type: MEMO

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 MEMORANDUM
CENTRAL INTELLIGEu, E AGENCY
Directorate of Intelligence
January 29, 1975
SUBJECT: Bhutto to Visit Washington
L.. Lr)
Zulfikar Ali Bhutto, the Prime Minister of Pakistan,
will be in Washington next week to meet with President Ford.
Bhut'-.o's last visit here was in September 1973.
Bhutto has been in power since December 1971, when Pak-
istan's armed forces, which had ruled for 13 years, voluntarily
turned the government over to him after suffering a humiliating
defeat in a two-week war with India. That war climaxed a year
of severe turmoil in Pakistan's eastern wing, which became the
independent republic of Bangladesh at the end of the war.
A year earlier, Bhutto had firmly established himself as
the most popular politician in the area that was then known
as West Pakistan and today comprises the entire country. His
Pakistan People's Party won nearly 60 percent of the West
Pakistani seats in elections for a constituent assembly then
being planned by the military regime.
Bhutto today is firmly in control of his country. He is
likely?to remain in office at least until the constitutional
deadline for the next national elections (1977) and perhaps a
good deal longer. At 47 years of age, he appears to be i_-
good health and has no serious rivals for power.
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A Strong Leader
Bhutto's position today is strong both because of what he
has achieved for Pakistan since the troubles in 1971, and
because of his adroitness as a politician. 'ate has given the
country a new ccnstitution under which many democratic insti-
tutions have been restored. He has introduced a number of
generally popular agricultural, industrial, labor, and educa-
tional reforms. His government has been vigcrous, even if
only partially successful, in combatting Pakistan's economic
problems.
The Bhutto regime has also shown itself able to respond
effectively to natural disasters such as severe floods in 1973
and an earthquake last December. In 1970, the military gov-
ernment's failure to initiate a large-scale relief effort after
a cyclone had devastated part of East Pakistan contributed to
the unrest that culminated in the war with India and the loss
of the eastern province.
Bhutto has also enjoyed important foreign policy successes.
He has maintained Pakistan's friendly ties with the US, China,
the Arab world, and, neighboring Iran---all of which had sympa-
thized with Pakistan during the troubles with India in 1971--
and has obtained considerable material assistance from all of
them. He has even made a start, together with Mrs. Gandhi,
toward resolving some of the differences between Pakistan and
India.
All this activity has had an important psychological im-
pact on the Pakistani people.. The Bhutto regime's achievements
have helped restore a national sense of purpose and self-
confidence that had been shattered by the debacle of 1971.
Bhutto is given wide credit among Pakistanis for having
revived the country.
In domestic politics, Bhutto has outflanked all his
opponents. Opposition parties, weak and divided, have not
been able to mount a serious challenge.
Bhutto's party enjoys a commanding majority in the national
legislature and dominates political life: in the two most
populous of Pakistan's four provinces. Even in the other two
provinces, where the party is relatively weak, it has managed
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to retain control of the provincial governments. Bhutto has
kept his opponents in these provinces on the defensive through
political maneuvering, government spending, and occasional
strong-arm tactics including jailing of opposition politicians.
In one province, Baluchistan, the army has recently succeeded
in bringing a stubborn tribal insurgency under control.
The armed forces, which have ruled Pakistan during nearly
half its life span as an independent nation., remain the ulti-
mate arbiter of power in the nation. But Bhutto dues not
appear to be under any threat from that quarter.
Relations with the US
Bhutto's friendliness toward the US contrasts with his
much more critical attitude when he served as Pakistan's foreign
minister in the mid-?1960s. This change is due to several
factors:
-- US sympathy 'and support for Pakistan in 1971. Most of
the world sided with India and Bangladesh.
-- The US detente with China, Pakistan's northern neighbor
and longstanding ally.
-- Bhutto's own proven?ability to modify his positions
sharply when circumstances require.
-- The attention the US has continued to show to Pakistan
and to Bhutto personally. Although unhappy over restric-
ti.ons on the sale of US arms to Pakistan, Bhutto views
Washington's response in recent years to.Pakistan's
economic assistance needs as rather generous'. He is also
aware that relatively few foreign leaders ha?"e been.
invited, as he has, to visit Washington twice in less
than 18 months.
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-- Pakistan's lack of satisfactory alternatives to
friendship with the US. The Soviet Union, for example,
is unlikely to jeopardize its close relationship with
India by embracing Pakistan. Bhutto does not view
Chinese, Arab, and Iranian support as adequate substi-
tutes for US backing, especially in view of the exten-
sive Soviet assistance to India.
The only issue on which Bhutto has been ser.iourly unhappy
with the US is arms supply. He has argued forcefully for an
easing of the embargo on US arms sales to India anO. Pakistan,
which has been in effect in one form or another ever since the
Indc-Pakistani war of 1965.
India opposes any relaxation of the arms embargo. Bhutto
is concerned that continuation of the embargo, along with
recent improvements in US relations with India, may signify
a lessening of US interest in Pakistan.
At times Bhutto has hinted that Pakistan micht withdraw
from the Central Treaty Organization--a 20-year-r'ld alliance
between the US, Britain, Iran, Turkey, and Pakistan--unless
the US "puts teeth" into the alliance by supplying arms to
Pakistan. 'So far, however, he has been unwilling to break
with the organization. He knows that such a move would be
widely viewed internationally as a loosening of Pakistan's
ties with the US and would be particularly disturbing to
Iran, one of Pakistan's most important allies.
Bhutto also hopes the US will grant Pakistan additional
wheat this year under the PL-480 program, beyond the 100,000
tons already promised.
Bhutto believes Pakistan's proximity to the Persian Gulf
oil region, and its warm relations with Arab governments,
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enhance Washington's interest in maintaining close ties with
Islamabad. He has said he might be willing to let the US
establish an air and naval base in Pakistan on the Arabian
Sea, which adjoins the Gulf area.
Other Friends...
Pakistan's closest major power ally is China, which has
been the leading donor of arms to Pakistan since 1965. Peking
and Islamabad have long had in common a wary attitude toward
both India and the Soviet Union.
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Pakistan's ties with the Muslim countries of the Middle
East have expanded under the Bhutto regime. The trauma of
'defeat by India in 1971, magnified by the Indian nuclear bias'-.
last May, led Bhutto to cast about for new support. The 25X1
Muslim oil-producing countries were natural allies.
...And Foes
Pakistan and India remain deeply suspicious of each other.
Many Pakistanis believe India wants to dominate its South
Asian neighbors.
Yet the two countries have made considerable progress
since 1971 in resolving problems peacefully. In 1972, Bhutto
and Mrs. Gandhi signed an agreement at Simla, India, in which
they promised to settle their differences through negotiation.
Since then they have resolved many problems left over from
the 1971 war, such as the withdrawal of troops and the ex-
change of prisoners of war and stranded civilian minorities.
They have also agreed to restore trade, shipping, travel, and
communications links, although diplomatic relations remain
suspended. They continue to differ strongly over the status
of Kashmir.
Pakistan's relations with another neighbor, Afghanistan,
have been strained since mid-1973, when a military roup
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returned Mohammad Daoud to power in Kabul. The Daoud regime
has supported political dissidents in Pakistan's two frontier
provinces, which border on Afghanistan.
These dissidents are seeking provincial autonomy. They
have occasionally resorted to violence, but the Bhutto regime
has been able to contain them. Bhutto has accused the dissi-
dents and their Afghan supporters of seeking the breakup of
Pakistan, but both countries have been careful to avoid a
major confrontation.
Pakistan's relations with Bangladesh.are stalemated over
how to divide the assets and liabilities of pre-1971 Pakistan,
and over how much of Bangladesh's unwanted, pro-Pakistani
"Bihari" minority group Pakistan will absorb. Bhutto appar-
ently feels no urgency about establishing diplomatic, trade,
or other ties with Pakistan's desperately poor and violence-
ridden former eastern wing.
The Bhutto government is suspicious of the Soviet Union,
which has been a strong backer of India, Afghanistan, and
Bangladesh. Bhutto has visited th. USSR twice since he came
to power and has made some modest progress in improving rela-
tions with the Soviets. He knows, however, that Pakistani-
Soviet ties are limited by Moscow's emphasis on India as the
key country in South Asia, and by Pakistan's own dependence
on China, the US, and anti-Communist Middle Eastern rulers
such as Saudi King Faysal and the Shah of Iran.
Economic Problems
Bhutto's most difficult. challenges are economic. Pakis-
tan's economic problems are much less pronounced than those
of neighboring India and Bangladesh, but they are nonetheless
substantial. They could eventually lead to serious unrest.
Pakistan's modest economic growth in 1974 was largely
offset by the three percent yearly increase in its population,
which now totals between 65 and 70 million. The annual infla-
tion rate is running at around 25 percent, and unemployment
and underemployment are increasing. Inflaticn and balance of
payments troubles have been exacerbated by rising world fuel
prices. A shortage of water for irrigation and power currently
is hampering agricultural and industrial production, although
not to such an extent as to threaten a famine.
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A lack of private investment also has helped hold the
economy back. The early days of the Bhutto regime were
marked by extensive nationalizations and other economic
reform measures unpopular among private businessmen. More
recently Bhutto has been moving toward moderate economic
policies, but for political reasons he has not abandoned
socialist rhetoric, and the private sector has remained
wary.
? Pakistan's economic difficulties are not likely to ease
this year, but over the longer run the country's future is
brighter. Pakistan is not overpopulated. It has the
potential to expand production and exports, and to become
self-sufficient in food. Economic prospects have been furTher
brightened by the massive air., that has begun to arrive from
Iran and the Arab states.
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