THE SITUATION IN INDOCHINA ( AS OF 1600 EDST ) NO. 20

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP86T00608R000300070029-2
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 5
• Document Creation Date: December 15, 2016
• Document Release Date: July 23, 2004
• Sequence Number: 29
• Publication Date: April 21, 1975
• Content Type: IM

25X1
Approved For Release 2004/08/16 :CIA-RDP86T00608R000300070029-2
 Approved or Release 2004/08/16 : CIA-RDP86T00608R000300070029-2 25X1
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
Directorate of intelligence
21 April 1975
INTELLIGENCE MEMORANDUM
The Situation in Indochina
(As of 1600 EDST)
No. 20
VIETNAM
New Government to be Formed
1. South Vietnam's vice president, Tran Van Huong, was
sworn in as the new president immediately following Thieu's
resignation. Huong reportedly is also to resign shortly
to pave the way for Senate President Tran Van Lam to take
over as the new chief of state.
2. Lam apparently intends to form a new government,
although there are no reliable indications who will be
appointed. Presumably, Lam will turn to such staunch
anti-Thieu personalities as General Duong Van "Big" Minh,
Buddhist leader Vu Van Mau, and former senata president
14cjuyen Van Iluyen in an effort to encourage the Communists
to n^.gotiate a political settlement of the war.
3. In recent weeks, Communist statement's have gradually
taken a harder line ruling out any real compromise settle-
ment or coalition government of any substance, instead
implying that nothing less than total surrender would be
acceptable. Recent guidelines provided to Communist
officials at COSVN state th.-,.t "final victory" is at hand
and that there no longer is any necessity for negotiations
or any form of coalition government.
4. Initial Communist reaction to the Thieu resignation
has continued the same line. A Viet Cong spokesman in
NSA review(s)
completed.
25X1
Approved For Release 2004/08/16 : CIA-RDP86T00608R000300070029-2
 25X1
Approved F
Paris has been quoted as stating that before negotiations
could be considered, the US must "halt all. interference
in Vietnam" arid that not only Thieu "but also his whole
regime must be overthrown."
5. Thus, at this point, the very best
a new South Vietnam government might obtain is probably
a negotiated surrender. Given the proximity of Communist
military forces to Saic,on--and the very real prospect of
a rapid disintegration of GVN military will in the wake
of Thieu's resignation, time may already have run out for
any such orderly transfer of power.
Military Action
6. Communist pressure is being maintained on all
sides of Saigon. Fighting has continued a dozen or so
miles cast of Bien floa and along Route 4 southwest of
Saigon. The roads between Saigon and Tay Ninh City
remain blocked, and the communists could overrun the light-
ly defended town at any time. In addition to the now-
routine daily artillery attacks on Bien Hoa, the communists
shelled Tay Ninh and several other government holdings on
April 21.
7. The South Vietnamese have reportedly decided to
move the two Marine brigades south from L'i?n boa to Vung
Tai_, because of morale problems and a complete breakdown
of discipline. This will leave the defense of the Bien
Hoa-Long Binh complex to the remnants of the South Viet-
namese 18th Division, an armor brigade, and an Airborne
brigade--all of which have just been pulled back from
the Xuan Loc battlefront. The combat effectiveness of
these units is cuestionable and Bien Hoa could fall
quickly when brought under strong attack by the approach-
ing North Vietnamese.
25X1
Approved For Release 2004/08/16 : CIA-RDP86T00608R000300070029-2
 psychological Pressure Building
8. Although efforts are being made to rt.-organize
and consolidate available forces to defend Saigon, there
is a deepening sense of gloom among the senior military
officers. Most of these officials believe tho military
situation is hopeless and do not expect the front liner
troops to hold very long once heavy attacks begin. The
"why continue to fight?" attitude will probE.bly spread
to most of the government's forces, especially as
additional units retreating from the Xuan Loc battle-
front show up in the populated areas. Tru,,.-!,,: loads of
battered troops and tanks with s?7ounded men ranging on
the sides have pulled into Bein Iloa. The combat soldiers
will to fight will be further eroded by t).e resignation
of President Thieu.
25X1
North Vietnamese Gunboats Come South
9. The North Vietnamese have mover:.] a few of their
three dozen gunboats south, and these c,,.-uld pose a threat
to evacuation by sea. ''con after the f;::l.;. of Oa Nang,
two gunboats were detected moving south to the Cua Viet
River in Quang Tri Province. Photography E: I 25X1
shows a Soviet-built KOMAR guided missile boat near
Tuy floc on the central coast. This boat carries two
surface-to-surface missiles which have a range of some
22 miles and are highly effective against ships. 25X1
I I conventional non-missi e
gun oa s are opeiating as far south as Binh Tuy Province.
25X1
Approved For Release 2004/08/16 : CIA-RDP86T00608R000300070029-2
 25X1
Approved Fo
1. Al]. five US newsmen known to have remained behind
25X1
air today: only music is being broadcast, however.
in Peking over the weekend so that he could remain at the
25X1
2. Plans for a resistance movement in the northwest
have collapsed and former senior officials from the region--
including former prime minister In Tani and Battambang gov-
ernor Sek Sam Iet--have fled to Thailand. Commvin!_"t-. forces
over the weekend occupied the towns of Pailin and Poin:et as
well as Battambang city. Communist troops 'in Rattarnbanct
have confiscated property and secirectated the ponulation
according to "class." Former Cambodian Armv officers in
Eattambang have also been separated from their troops. A
broadcast over the weekend from the Communist's Hanoi-based
transmitter revealed that the provinces of Prey Vence, Yoh
Kong, Siern Reap, and Pursat had not yet been "liberaL-ed."
25X1
3. So far there is no information to dispute press
claims that Prince Sihanouk Passed up the "victory celebration"
b^dside of the ailing queen mother.
Argentina, Cyprus,
Jordan, and New Zealand have now joined the burgeoning list
of ccuntries recognizing Sihanouk's "government." Cambodian
embassy officials in Bangkok and Vientiane have pledged
their allegiance to the new leadership at home.
25X1
Approved or a ease - -