STAFF NOTES: MIDDLE EAST AFRICA SOUTH ASIA

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP86T00608R000400010011-6
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 8
• Document Creation Date: December 15, 2016
• Document Release Date: July 9, 2004
• Sequence Number: 11
• Publication Date: January 16, 1975
• Content Type: REPORT

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Middle East
Africa
South Asia
NSA review completed
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January 16, 1975
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MIDDLE EAST - AFRICA - SOUTH ASIA
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Libya: Concerned Over US Intentions . . . . 1
Ghana: The Junta's Third Anniversary . . . . . 3
Africa: Increased Oil Prices Pose a Threat
to Development . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4
Jan 16, 1975
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Libya
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of alleged US plans to seize their oilfields are true.
The Libyans now seem convinced that press stories
Until late last year, the regime had responded to
the press stories as if they were simply part of
Washington's overall diplomatic strategy for bringing
down oil prices.
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An interview
wit ft a US Marine captain aired on French Felevision
last week may well have confirmed Tripoli's worst
fears. When questioned about his mission in the
Mediterranean the captain staff. d. there probably were
plans "at high echelons" to 5.nvade Libyan oilfields.
He then asserted that US forces were fully capable
of carrying out such a mission and would have no
moral qualms about doing so..
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Jan 16, 1975
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Libyan officials have been reluctant to publicize
any information or answer questions about Sixth Fleet
activities,
Even in private, Libyan authorities have
made only restrained references to Sixth Fleet activity.
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This uncharacteristic Libyan caution is probably
due in part to Tripoli's recognition. that it must
avoid a provocative incident in view of its limited
military capabilities.
Mounting fears
of US intentions could quickly Tripoli's
strategy, but at least for the present the regime
intends to act with caution:
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Ghana
The Junta's Third Anniversary
Ghana's National Redemption Council, the
military junta that ousted the civilian government
of Dr. Kofi Busia, observed its third anniversary
on January 13 on a generally subdued and defensive
note.
The most noteworthy aspect of the anniversary
celebration was an announcement by Colonel Acheampong--
the council chairman--that an officer of the disgruntled
Ewe tribe had been appointed to head the 3,000-man
border guard unit. Acheampong's closest advisers had
been pressing him to ease his longstanding dispute
with this important tribe by naming a troop commander
from the Ewes.
In a pre-anniversary day press conference.
Acheampong,discounted rumors of serious splits among
the council members and announced guidelines for the
regime's long promised five-year development plan.
He also said that there was sufficient civilian parti-
cipation in the government and that Ghana was not fac-
ing a deteriorating foreign exchange situation.
Acheampong began 1974 with confidence and a
reasonably high degree of popular acceptance. He
still appears to have sufficient support to maintain
control for now, but he has lost some prestige.
Despite his disclaimers at the press conference,
the ruling council remains divided by personal, tribal
and policy issues.
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Africa
Increased Oil Prices Pose a Threat to Development
Preliminary estimates from a cross section of
sub-Saharan African oil importing countries indicate
that their combined trade deficit doubled in 1974.
Fortuitous price increases for many major African
exports prevented a much more serious deficit.
Payments for oil imports tripled, rising from about
8 percent to 16 percent of the total import bill.
Increased foreign grants and indebtedness were the
principal means of financing the larger deficits.
Sub-Saharan countries will have to continue
increasing their dependence on foreign aid in 1975
just to stay even with import costs. The partial
relief provided by the high prices paid for exports
is already evaporating as the disarray in developed
economies reduces the demand for'.these exports.
Growing amounts of foreign aid required to finance
imports for current consumption may erode develop-
ment funding, damaging the countries' long-term
economic potential. Inflationary rises in con-
sumer prices, prompted largely by the high oil
prices, already have affected the welfare of most
urban Africans.
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in 1975, Europe will continue to provide most aid.
So far, the increased foreign aid for sub-
Saharan countries has come mainly from traditional
European donors. Most former French territories,
for example, have regula.-Lly covered their deficits
by borrowing from France, effectively transferring
the burden of the increased oil prices to Paris.
As the year progressed, several countries also began
borrowing from the International Monetary Fund Oil
Facility and from the Arab Fund for Africa. Although
Arab aid sources probably will increase in importance
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